Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) won the 2024 Vuelta a España in Madrid on Sunday, finishing off a stunning comeback in which the Slovenian steadily overcoming the 4:51 advantage that Australia’s Ben O’Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) gained after winning Stage 6 during the first week of the Spanish grand tour.
Roglič’s victory was a masterclass in patience, planning, and confidence. The 34-year-old is now tied with Spain’s Roberto Heras for the most overall victories in the event’s 79-year history.
How’d He Do It?
After taking the red jersey (given each day to the leader of the Vuelta’s General Classification) on Stage 4 and then losing it to O’Connor on Stage 6, Roglič went to work immediately, taking back time in dribs and drabs whenever he saw had the opportunity. By the end of the first week, he was 3:53 behind O’Connor; by the end of the second, he was just 1:03 down and–with three more days in the mountains before the final individual time trial in Madrid–Roglič looked ready to pounce.
And he did, but when he did he timed his efforts beautifully by choosing moments when he knew the terrain was such that it would cause O’Connor to struggle. Roglič saved his best performances for the end of the third week: he won Stage 19 atop the steep Alto de Moncalvillo on Friday to finally reclaim the red jersey, and then finished second in the final time trial, leaving no doubt as to whom was the Vuelta’s strongest and most complete rider.
What About Everyone Else?
Resigned to the fact that he would indeed lose the red jersey at some point during the third week, O’Connor did well to hold onto second-place overall, 2:36 behind Roglič. Other riders might have crumbled upon losing the overall lead after fighting to defend it for so long–but not O’Connor. He dug in, shifted his focus to maintaining his spot on the final podium, and thanks to a fantastic ride in the final time trial, did so easily.
Spain’s Enric Mas (Movistar) finished third overall, 3:13 behind Roglič, taking the fourth Vuelta podium finish of his career. The Spaniard rode well throughout the entire race, at times looking as if he had what it would have taken to pull-off an upset. But when it mattered most, he had no response to Roglič’s biggest attacks. He entered the final stage just nine seconds behind O’Connor for second-place overall, but failed to gain the time he needed to jump ahead of the Australian.
Australia’s Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) inherited the green jersey as the leader of the Vuelta’s Points Classification after Belgium’s Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)–who entered the third week with a commanding lead in the competition–crashed out of the race on Stage 16. Groves won Stage 17 (his third this year) the day after inheriting the jersey and held it all the way to Madrid, successfully defending his title from last year’s edition.
Van Aert was also the leader of the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains Classification at the time of his crash, which meant Australia’s Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates) pulled on the polka dot jersey as the competition’s new leader at the end of Stage 16. A bit of a battle then ensued between the Australian and his teammate–Spain’s Marc Soler–to keep the jersey, with the Australian ultimately winning competition after taking more points than his teammate on Stage 20’s seven categorized ascents. In the end, the teammates finished first and second in the competition, separated by just two points.
Denmark’s Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) steadily improved as the race progressed, and the 23-year-old was rewarded for his progress by taking home the White Jersey as the Vuelta’s Best Young Rider. Germany’s Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) entered the third week wearing the jersey, but the young German faded over the final week, partially due to the fact that he was one of the only domestiques healthy enough to support Roglič after an illness swept through the Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe squad near the end of the final week.
What Happened During the Final Week?
The Vuelta’s final week began with Stage 16, a long, rainy stage with three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish on the ascent to the Lagos de Covadonga. Soler won the stage, finally getting a stage victory after several near-misses during the first two weeks. But the Spaniard’s victory was overshadowed by van Aert’s abandonment. The Belgian crashed on a wet corner while on the attack earlier in the stage and was forced to leave the race due to a deep gash on the side of his knee.
Behind Soler, the GC battle reignited, with Roglič, Mas, and Carapaz dropping O’Connor by nearly a minute on the final climb. The Australian–as he had been doing since taking the jersey on Stage 6–fought hard to defend it and ended the day still in the lead–but by only 5 seconds. With more mountains and an individual time trial still to come, it was clear that the Australian was destined to lose the jersey.
Stage 17 went to Groves, who won a wet field sprint in Santander while wearing the green jersey he inherited from van Aert the previous evening. It was the Australian’s third stage win of the Vuelta, and it put him in the driver’s seat of the Vuelta’s Points competition.
On Stage 18, Spain’s Urko Berrade (Equipo Kern Pharma) put the cherry on top of an already incredible Vuelta for his small squad, taking the team’s third victory of the race after attacking his breakaway companions on the approach to the finish line in the Parque Natural de Izki. A 26-year-old who’s been with the Spanish team since 2020, the win was the first of Berrade’s career. For the second day in a row, O’Connor held onto the jersey. But with a narrow lead and a steep summit finish at the end of Stage 19, his red jersey days looked numbered.
And they were. Roglič and his team dominated Stage 19, steadily dropping everyone from the leading group until all that remained was a 3-man Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe team time trial up the Alto de Moncalvillo. Paced at first by his teammates, Roglič soon powered away by himself, winning his third stage of the race and putting time into everyone chasing him. For a rider known for his narrow victories–and defeats–it was a resounding performance.
Roglič had no trouble defending his jersey on Friday’s queen stage, a day with seven categorized climbs and the Vuelta’s final summit finish. And as we saw on many of the Vuelta’s seemingly-innumerable summit and uphill finishes, a rider from the breakaway survived to win the day, with Australia’s Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla) barely holding off the GC leaders to win his second stage of the race.
The Vuelta ended with Stage 21, a 24.6km individual time trial in Madrid that gave Switzerland’s Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) a chance to win his first stage in a grand tour–after years of trying. The Swiss time trial specialist powered his way over the course, with Roglič–in his red skinsuit–later proving to be the only rider able to stay within half a minute of the Swiss champion.
What Did We Learn?
Clearly we were wrong to doubt Roglič. After crashing out of the Tour de France and fracturing a bone in his lower back, the Slovenian came to the Vuelta unsure about his form. He then won Stage 4, the Vuelta’s first summit, and took the overall lead, putting to bed any remaining questions about whether or not he was ready to try and score a record-tying fourth victory in the Spanish grand tour.
But then he gave the jersey away, a move that he and his team had indicated it might do. On paper, it was a smart idea: with two-and-a-half weeks left to race, forcing another team to bear the weight of defending the jersey was a burden that Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe was more than happy to relinquish. But in giving the jersey to O’Connor–a rider with two fourth-place grand tour finishes on his resume–it looked at first to be a bit of a blunder.
But Roglič stayed cool upon losing the jersey, telling everyone to save their judgment until Madrid. He then went to work, sometimes taking seconds, others times taking minutes. For a rider who has both won and lost grand tours on the final day of the race, he looked determined to not leave anything to chance.
But he was also coldly calculating in how he went about it. Partly because O’Connor fought valiantly–and partially because he was seemingly content to let the Australian and his team keep doing the work–Roglič waited until Stage 19 to deliver his coup de grâce, taking back the jersey–in a big way–with just two days to spare. And he couldn’t have timed it better as his teammates were dropping like flies thanks to a sickness working its way through the squad. There would be no comeback–or meltdown–on the final stage; and by the time it was all said and done, Roglič was right and those who doubted him were wrong. The end.
In winning the 2024 Vuelta, Roglič justified his BORA’s investment after the team (and Roglič) secured his release from his contract with Jumbo-Visma after last year’s Vuelta. Roglič was supposed to be a contender at the Tour de France–but he crashed out on Stage 12. This victory is an important consolation prize, and only the second grand tour victory in the team’s history.
But the Slovenian could once again find himself at a crossroads as the team has been rumored to be trying to sign Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel away from Soudal-Quick Step, a move that would make the Belgian the team’s new Tour de France leader. Will Roglič stay with the German for the second year of his contract, knowing that he could (again) be pushed aside for a younger rider? Or will he seek another release, once again looking for a team that will promise him a place as its Tour de France captain?
With most of the sport’s best grand tour riders–guys like Slovenia’s Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), and Evenepoel–likely targeting the 2025 Tour de France, Roglič could have free reign at the Giro d’Italia–which he won last year–and then at the Vuelta–where he could take a record-breaking fifth victory–if he stays with BORA. And while he’s getting up there in age, he came to the sport later than most and still has time to add more victories to his already-impressive resume. How he handles this next phase of his career will go a long way toward defining his legacy.
We learned a few other things as well:
- Kaden Groves deserves a chance to ride the Tour de France, although he might not get one at Alpecin-Deceuninck thanks to Belgium’s Jasper Philipsen. The Aussie is signed with the Belgian team for 2025, but that could change if someone else is willing to meet whatever the team’s asking price might be to release the Aussie from his contract.
- O’Connor deserves more credit than he’s often been given thanks in part to his somewhat unflattering portrayal in Netflix’s Tour de France: Unchained series. He came to the Vuelta determined to finish on the podium after just missing it at the 2021 Tour de France and the Giro d’Italia earlier this year–and he far exceeded his goal. The 28-year-old has now won stages in all three grand tours and perhaps more importantly, he learned some valuable lessons after spending two weeks defending his lead. He’ll take those lessons with him to Jayco-AlUla next season, where he plans to be the team’s grand tour captain.
- The talent/management/performance/grand tour crisis at INEOS Grenadiers worsened at the Vuelta, where the team failed to win a stage and its best-placed rider was Spain’s Carlos Rodríguez, who finished the race tenth overall, 11:19 behind Roglič. It’s been a rough few years for a squad that won twelve grand tours between 2011 and 2021. So far the team has won just 14 races this year, by far its fewest total since the team was created in 2010. And–unless the team pulls an Evenepoel out of a hat–there doesn’t appear to be any help on the horizon.
- The results underscored the fact Pogačar missed out on a golden opportunity to become the only rider to have ever won all three grand tours in a single season. After dominating the Giro and the Tour, the Slovenian was certainly entitled to a vacation, but even a tired Pogačar could have won the Vuelta if he entered it. Roglič was strong, but he didn’t look unbeatable–especially for a rider of Pogačar’s caliber. As someone who appears to be keenly aware of his legacy–and seems unafraid of taking risks in order to achieve his goals–not going for the hat trick was the most un-Pog thing Pog’s ever done. He had little to lose and everything to gain–and now we’ll never know what could have been.
- And last but not least, the 2024 Vuelta showed us that American Sepp Kuss, who captivated us all in winning last year’s race, is perhaps better suited to being a mountain domestique than a GC captain. A lot of constellations aligned to help him win last year’s race, but this year he reminded everyone that it’s a lot harder to win a grand tour when you’re entering the race as the defending champion–and your biggest rivals aren’t your teammates.
So What’s Next?
While the 2024 season is over as far as grand tours are concerned, there’s still lots of racing left to enjoy–so keep those streaming service subscriptions going!
Belgium hosts the European cycling championships next weekend, where we can expect to see many of the sport’s best one-day racers battle for a chance to wear the European champion’s jersey next season.
Next weekend also brings two Canadian WorldTour events–Friday’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and Sunday’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal–where men like Pogačar and American Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) will try and put the finishing touches on their form for the upcoming World Championships, which take place in Switzerland two weeks later.
October brings the season to a close with historic one-day races like Paris-Tours. A series of challenging one-day races in Italy culminates with the annual running of the season’s final Monument, Il Lombardia. These are often among the most exciting races of the season, and they always attract a terrific mix of one-day specialists and grand tour stars.
Pogačar has won the Italian Monument three years in a row and would love nothing more than to win a fourth while wearing the rainbow jersey as the sport’s world champion. If he does, he’ll put the finishing touch on what would certainly go down as one of the greatest seasons in cycling history.
