With six stages left to race, the 2024 Vuelta a España is shaping up to be quite a hum-dinger with an unexpected but not entirely out of left-field overall leader, a 3-time champion who’s steadily chipping into his lead, and a group of riders hoping to ride their way onto the final podium by Sunday’s final stage in Madrid.
And that doesn’t even include Belgium’s Wout van Aert, who’s romping his way through the Iberian Peninsula and has shown no signs of stopping until he’s won as many stages–and as many jerseys as he can.
So buckle up! The season’s final grand tour is always known for chaos, and this year’s edition looks to be no different. Here’s a everything you need to know to get up to speed–and a preview of what to expect in the Spanish grand tour’s final week:
So Who’s Winning the 2024 Vuelta a España?
Australia’s Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) still wears the red jersey as the Vuelta’s overall leader. The 28-year-old entered the week with a nearly 4-minute advantage over Slovenia’s Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)–a 3-time Vuelta champion–and has fought valiantly to defend his lead.
But O’Connor’s advantage has shrunk considerably over the past week and he’ll enter the Vuelta’s final week leading the Slovenian by just 1:03–and Spain’s Enric Mas (Movistar) by 2:23. Six more riders sit fewer than 2:30 off the podium, which means we’re in for an exciting battle over the Vuelta’s final six stages with O’Connor fighting to keep the jersey, Roglič attacking to take it, and the rest trying to throw monkey wrenches into everyone’s else’s plans in the hopes of turning the race on its head.
After winning two stages during the first week, van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) continued his successful Vuelta in the second: the Belgian now wears the green jersey as the leader of the Vuelta’s Points Classification and the polka dot jersey as the co-leader–along with Australia’s Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates)–of the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains Classification.
And after losing it for a few days, Germany’s Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) took back the white jersey as the Vuelta’s current Best Young Rider on Sunday’s Stage 15. But with two riders within just 18 seconds of his lead, the 23-year-old will have to fight to keep it all the way to Madrid.
How it Happened: Roglič Attacks, O’Connor Hangs Tough (Sorta), and Castrillo Emerges
The Vuelta’s second week began last Tuesday with Stage 10, a 160km ride from Ponteareas to Baiona won by van Aert, who won alone from a breakaway in Baiona. In taking his third stage of the race, the Belgian cemented his lead in the Vuelta’s Points competition and his status as a top favorite for the world road race championships in late-September.
Breakaways saw more success on Stages 11 and 12, with Ireland’s Eddie Dunbar (Team Jayco AlUla) winning Stage 17 in Padron and Spain’s Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma) winning Stage 18 on the summit finish to the Estación de Montaña de Manzaneda. The Spaniard’s victory was especially meaningful as it was his small wild card team’s first Vuelta victory–and it came on the day of the passing of the team’s former president and founder.
For the fourth day in a row, the Vuelta’s GC contenders were happy to let a large group escape early in the day and establish a large lead, with Canada’s Mike Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) emerging to win the summit finish on the Puerto de Ancares. But the GC battle resumed further down the mountain as Roglič and Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe cracked O’Connor soon after starting the final climb. By the top, the Australian had lost 1:55 to the Slovenian, cutting his lead to just 1:21.
At 200.5km, Saturday’s Stage 15 was the longest in this year’s Vuelta–and Visma-Lease a Bike did everything in its power to see that it went to van Aert. But Australia’s Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and several other sprinters survived the final climb and made it to the finish in Villablino with the leading group, where the Aussie outsprinted van Aert to take his second stage victory in this year’s race.
The week ended with the third summit finish in four days, this time on the first “Beyond Category” climb in this year’s race: the steep climb to Cuitu Negru, in the mountains of Asturias. Another fast start produced a strong breakaway filled with climbers, and three of the original twenty-one stayed away to the finish, with Castrillo dropping one of Roglič’s teammates to win his second summit finish of the week. If the big WorldTour teams weren’t already paying attention after the 23-year-old won Stage 12, they are now.
Behind Castrillo, Roglič took more time from O’Connor, but not as much as many expected: the Slovenian crossed the line just 38 seconds ahead of the Australian and then lost 20 of them after being penalized for drafting behind his team car after changing his bike before the final climb.
Had the bike change not been planned–Roglič was clearly switching to a bike with a lighter wheelset–the referees might have overcooked the transgression, but the move was so blatant there was little they could do. For Roglič, 20 seconds might not mean much, but with more mountains–and an individual time trial in Madrid on the final day–O’Connor will appreciate every second he can get if he wants to hold on and win the Vuelta.
So Can O’Connor Hold On to Win the Vuelta a España?
It’s looking like we were wrong to doubt Roglič after the 3-time Vuelta champion let O’Connor gain 6:31 on Stage 6. Heading into the stage, it was assumed that Roglič and his team would try and lose the red jersey to another team, and while O’Connor–who’s twice finished fourth in a grand tour–didn’t look like the best rider to give it to at the time, things are looking as if they’re about to work out in the Slovenian’s favor.
With a lead of just 1:03 heading into the final week, O’Connor can’t just sit back and defend himself anymore–especially since he’s ceded time to Roglič on just about every summit finish since taking the jersey. To make matters worse for the Australian, the final stage is an individual time trial–one of Roglič’s specialities–and if O’Connor is to have any chance of holding off the Slovenian and winning his first grand tour, he’ll need more than 1:03 in order to do it.
Roglič could take more time–or the jersey itself–on Tuesday, another hard mountain stage that ends with a summit finish. If he does, O’Connor might have to start worrying about maintaining his spot in the top-3 with Mas and Ecuador’s Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) looking ready to pounce should he really start to struggle.
O’Connor came into the Vuelta saying that he was tired of finishing fourth, and he culd have a big fight on his hands if he doesn’t limit his losses. Luckily, none of the riders he’ll likely have to contend with are better time trialists than he is, so assuming he makes it through Stage 20 inside the Vuelta’s top-3, he should remain there through next Sunday.
So at this point, the smart money’s on Roglič winning his fourth Vuelta, an incredible achievement considering the Slovenian wasn’t even sure he would start the race after crashing out of the Tour de France. A victory would give the program its second grand tour victory (Australia’s Jai Hindley won the 2022 Giro d’Italia), the team’s new sponsor–Red Bull–its first grand tour victory, and in doing so justify Roglič’s expensive off-season transfer.
And the timing couldn’t be better for Roglič: with rumors swirling that the German team is trying to sign Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel away from Soudal-Quick Step for 2025, the 34-year-old Slovenian might soon be looking for yet another team, a process that would certainly be helped along (at least in terms of his asking price) by taking his fifth grand tour victory.
What’s on Tap for the Third Week?
The Vuelta’s final week begins in Asturias with Stage 16, a long, dangerous stage with three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish on the climb to the Lagos de Covadonga. Mountain stages that come right out of a Rest Day can be dangerous–especially in the third week. Anyone not prepared for such a hard stage could see their GC dreams come to an end.
Thankfully, Stage 17 is a shorter, gentler day that–despite a few climbs early on–should end with a field sprint in Santander. This is likely the last chance for the Vuelta’s fast men to win a stage, so expect Groves and Alpecin-Deceunicnk to try and make the most of it, with van Aert looking for revenge after his defeat on Stage 14. And just in case the Belgian doesn’t come through, Stage 18’s jagged trip through the Basque Country has the Belgian’s name written all over it.
Then it’s back into the mountains for Stage 19, the penultimate summit finish of this year’s Vuelta. Starting in Logroño, the 173.5km stage ends atop the Alto de Moncalvillo, a climb that begins rather gently but gets steeper near the top. Roglič won here in 2020 on his way to winning his first Vuelta–will history repeat itself for the Slovenian?
Stage 20 is perhaps the hardest in the entire race with seven categorized climbs and a summit finish on the Picón Blanco, a 7km climb with a 9-percent average gradient. If O’Connor enters the day in the red jersey, he and his team will have their hands full defending it on a stage like this one–and if they’ve lost it, it could take everything the Australian has to stay on the podium heading into Stage 21’s individual time trial.
And coming in at 24.6km, Stage 21 is long enough to cause some shake-ups. He’s not as fast as he used to be, but Roglič should have no trouble against the Vuelta’s other GC contenders. If he comes into the day within a minute of the jersey he should have little trouble taking it.
The real fight could be to see who joins him on the podium, and we could be treated to the somewhat awkward sight of wiry climbers battling against one another in a flat time trial to see who can finish second and third overall. As for the stage win, Van Aert is the top favorite with Switzerland’s Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)–who’s ridden a good race so far but has little to show for it–his biggest rival.
By the end of the day Sunday, we’ll know the winner of the 2024 Vuelta a España–and the 2024 grand tour season will be over.
