Tourism and Climate Change: Risks and Opportunities

Preface

The rapid and sustained rise of tourism over the past 50 years is one of the most remarkable phenomena of our time. The number of international tourist arrivals has increased from 25 million in 1950 to 808 million in 2005. International tourism represents approximately 7% of the worldwide export of goods and services. For over 80% of countries tourism is one of the top five export categories, and for around 40% of countries it is the main source of foreign exchange earnings. The 11% increase in global revenues generated annually by international tourist arrivals is well above the rate of growth of the world economy.

Favourable climatic conditions at destinations are key attractions for tourists. Weather can ruin a vacation, while climate can devastate a holiday destination. Climate is especially important for the success of beach destinations and conventional sun-and-sea tourism, the dominant form of tourism. Tourists are attracted to coastal areas and islands by ample sunshine, warm temperatures and little precipitation, escaping from harsher weather conditions and seasons in their home countries. Other forms of tourism, such as mountain tourism and winter sports, are also highly dependent on favourable climate and weather conditions, such as adequate precipitation and snow cover.

Climate change will not only impact on tourism directly by changes in temperature, extreme weather events and other climatic factors, but also indirectly as it will transform the natural environment that attracts tourists in the first place – for example, by accelerating coastal erosion, damaging coral reefs and other sensitive ecosystems and by reducing snowfall and snow cover in mountainous regions. It will also affect the basic services that are so critical for tourism, such as water supplies, especially during periods of peak demand.

In the Djerba Declaration (2003), the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) acknowledged the need to align the tourism sector’s activities with the concerns, objectives and activities of the United Nations (UN) system in relation to climate change, and more generally with respect to sustainable development. The Kyoto Protocol is a first step in the control of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Tourism has an important role to play in achieving and moving beyond the Kyoto targets.

As a key part of the follow-up activities to the Djerba Conference, the UNWTO has initiated a series of pilot projects in Small Island Developing States, in order to develop and demonstrate measures that reduce climate-related risks in tourism-dependent countries highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including their beach destinations, tourism-dependent communities and coastal ecosystems. For this purpose, the UNWTO is undertaking pilot studies with support from the Global Environmental Facility, under its Focal Area on Climate Change. The first pilot countries are Fiji and Maldives, with the authors of this book involved as lead experts.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in partnership with national meteorological services (NMSs) and the international meteorological community, is making an important contribution by providing relevant information to the tourism sector in order to reduce the adverse consequences of weather and climate extremes for tourism operators. At the same time the WMO is joining with UNWTO and the tourism sector to maximise the benefits of favourable weather conditions and changes in climate. In this way both organisations are raising awareness levels about the sensitivity of tourism to weather and climate variability and change, including extremes. They are also providing guidance on how key actors in the tourism system might best respond in order to reduce risks and maximise benefits.

There has been increasing cooperation between the UNWTO and WMO, manifested in the First International Conference on Tourism and Climate Change in Djerba in 2003, a special issue of World Climate News on tourism (Vol. 27) was published in 2005, and an Expert Team on Climate Change and Tourism has been established. The WMO will continue to spearhead international efforts to monitor, collect and analyse climate data and, in collaboration with the UNWTO, provide timely, relevant and reliable climate information services and products for use by operators, policy- and decision-makers in the tourism sector, and by travellers themselves.

This book, Tourism and Climate Change – Risks and Opportunities, is very timely. It supports and adds value to the ongoing work of the WTO and WMO with relation to climate change and tourism. It is the first in-depth and comprehensive analysis and integrated assessment of the interactions between tourism and climate change. The book will be of use to other international organisations, tourism and land use planners, policy-and decision-makers in the tourism sector, and senior students and academics in the areas of tourism policy and management, resource management and climate science and policy. The book achieves a pragmatic balance between the theoretical underpinnings of both tourism and climate change science, and the application of this knowledge in practical, real-world contexts. The text boxes are particularly useful as they present brief and appropriately targeted summaries of case examples and current and emerging issues that are, or should be, debated by policy makers and practitioners from the tourism and climate communities.

The identification of ‘climate–tourism hotspots’ is novel. They highlight where international organisations such as the WTO and WMO should focus their efforts when addressing the consequences of climate change for tourism. The book also identifies where more effort is needed if the interactions between climate and tourism are to be better understood, and how the UNWTO, WMO and other organisations might engage more effectively with the tourism sector in terms of both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The volume also makes an important contribution by demonstrating why a wider perspective is required to capitalise on the many synergies with other development and environmental imperatives, including increasing the sustainability of tourism-related activities that currently impact adversely on the quality of human life and well-being of the planet.

Francesco Frangialli

Secretary-General UNWTO

Michel Jarraud

Secretary-General WMO

Chapter 1

Introduction

Risk is potential loss and opportunity is possible gain. Over the last few years there has been increasing recognition of the risks and opportunities that climate change brings to tourism.

Tourism takes place in a wide range of places that are often closely linked to the natural environment and, as a consequence, to local climatic conditions. Changes in the climate, including climate-related hazards, have the potential to affect tourism businesses and tourist experiences alike. The tourism industry has to face headlines such as:

• ‘Cool Season Dampens Fun, Pinches Profits: Summertime Blues’ The Detroit News 27 August 2004

• ‘Unseasonably Warm Weather Brings US Ski Season to Disappointing End’ The Press-Enterprise 17 April 2004

• ‘Wilma Slams Mexico Resorts’ CNN 24 October 2005

• ‘Dutch Seek to Defend Coastal Resorts from Sea Rise’ Planet Ark 23 January 2006

• ‘Tourism Experts Say Hot Summer Means Higher Turnover’ Deutsche Welle 31 July 2006

Tourism is increasingly recognised as a significant activity, with a range of economic, social and environmental consequences. Tourism is one contributor to the build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are now recognised as causing unprecedented changes in the global climate. Such links between tourism and climate change are now acknowledged by key players in the tourism industry. Mark Ellingham, the founder of Rough Guides, and Tony Wheeler, who created Lonely Planet, want fellow travellers to ‘fly less and stay longer’ and donate money to carbon offsetting schemes. They urge their readers to: ‘join to discourage casual flying’. A Rough Guide to Climate Change has appeared in late 2006.

As with the headlines that highlight climate-related risks and opportunities to tourism, the sector also has to deal with a growing number of headlines that sensitise tourists about their impacts on the global climate.

• ‘Night flights much worse for global warming’ The Independent 3 August 2006

• ‘Aviation huge threat to CO2 aim’ BBC News 21 September 2005

• ‘It's a sin to fly, says church’ The Sunday Times 23 July 2006

The last headline relates to an announcement by the Bishop of London. He said it was sinful for people to contribute to climate change by flying on holiday, driving a ‘gas-guzzling’ car or failing to use energy-saving measures in their homes. Similar calls have been made elsewhere, for example by a group of Anglican bishops in New Zealand and Fiji. They committed themselves to carbon management and offsetting.

In the last year or two there have been some dramatic changes in the perception of climate change and recognition of the risks if these are not addressed. Research into the risks, as well as opportunities, helps decision makers to implement effective and efficient measures. In the area of tourism, little research has been undertaken with respect to climate change. Early publications include those by Giles and Perry (1998), Viner and Agnew (1999), Wall and Badke (1994) and Wall (1998). An Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2003) report on the global impacts of climate change, and the associated benefits of an effective climate policy noted that ‘In some key sectors, such as recreation, tourism, and energy, there has been little research conducted that characterises the relationship between climate change and impacts at a global scale.’ Development of appropriate policies has been limited as a result.

This book aims to bring together current understanding regarding the interactions between climate change and tourism and to highlight both the policy implications as well as the repercussions for tourism businesses, policy and decision makers, and tourism practitioners. The audience for this book is diverse, as the issue of tourism and climate change is cross-cutting and influences many spheres of life, including both planning and decision making. The topics covered are also of interest to university students of both the environmental sciences and tourism. However, the book mainly targets those decision makers who must take into account the impacts of climate change on tourism or consider the GHG emissions caused by tourism. These decision makers will be working in national, regional or international governmental organisations, and in non-governmental organisations including tourism industry organisations. Importantly, the structure of the book is such that it will appeal to any reader who seeks specific information on the tourism–climate interactions and their practical implications.

The book is structured into two major parts. Chapters 1–3 (Introduction, The Tourism–Climate System, and Tourism–Climate Case Studies) introduce and elaborate the interactions between tourism and climate, including identification of climate–tourism ‘hotspots’. Practical considerations are illustrated in four case studies. The first two focus on Alpine Europe and small island states. These have been identified as among the most vulnerable types of destination with respect to climate change. However, both mitigation and adaptation responses are discussed. The insurance industry case study highlights again the need for risk management in relation to climate change. Key concerns for tourism include natural disasters and the increasing difficulty to obtain insurance cover for many tourism businesses and infrastructure. International aviation is discussed in the fourth case study. It highlights the political difficulties of implementing fair and equitable climate change mitigation policies.

Chapters 1–3 thus provide the reader with a comprehensive overview of the key issues related to climate change and tourism, along with a more in-depth and practical understanding of tourism–climate issues for four more specific situations. The remainder of the book provides more in-depth information on the key components of the tourism–climate system. Forward referencing in Chapters 1–3 enables the reader to identify which of the subsequent chapters are of particular interest. Summary bullet points at the beginning of each chapter also assist the reader to gain a quick insight into chapter content and assess its relevance.

Chapter 4 describes tourism and details the recent trends that are relevant to any discussion of climate change issues. An argument will be made as to the special nature of tourism and why it is important to pay attention to these specific characteristics when dealing with climate change issues. This chapter also discusses major tourist flows worldwide and the growing economic importance of tourism. Attention will be paid to the emergence of ‘responsible tourism’, as this trend is consistent with the need for the tourism industry to reduce GHG emissions.

Chapter 5, ‘Global and Regional Climate Change’, provides more detailed explanations of the greenhouse effect and global climate change. The key changes in climate, including increased surface and water temperatures and tropic storm intensities, and sea-level rise, are discussed in terms of the relevance to tourism. Scenario analysis is an important tool to explore possible paths for the future. The scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used as a starting point to developing plausible futures for tourism. It is also possible that climate change will include ‘surprises’ – abrupt and pervasive changes that would have catastrophic consequences for tourism and other economic, social and environmental systems.

Given that tourism is a major contributor to GHG emissions, Chapter 6 on ‘Methodologies for Greenhouse Gas Accounting’ discusses approaches for energy and GHG accounting in tourism. The chapter provides an overview of major emission sources associated with the combustion of fossil fuels, different forms of energy and emission coefficients to convert energy use into carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gaseous emissions. Two different approaches are discussed: bottom-up and top-down analyses. The former details methodologies for transport and other tourism businesses, as well as for different tourist types. The latter uses the tool of input–output (IO) analysis to derive tourism-related energy use and CO2 emissions at a country level. Chapter 6 is critical to understanding the energy and emission analyses and response measures described in Chapter 7.

Chapter 7, ‘Climate Change Mitigation Measures’, presents the current knowledge of energy use and GHG emissions associated with various tourist activities. The main emission categories are air travel, surface transport, tourist accommodation and recreational activities. GHG reduction options to mitigate tourism's contribution to climate change are detailed for each of these categories. The application of renewable energy sources is discussed, for both mobile and in situ tourism activities. Finally, the chapter provides an overview of carbon compensation schemes: projects that provide alternative and more cost effective ways to reduce or offset emissions. There are already a number of schemes that offer tourists ways to offset their GHG emissions. These include investing in energy efficiency, renewable energy sources or carbon sink projects.

The risks of climate change to tourism are at the core of Chapter 8 (‘Climate Change-related Risks and Adaptation’). Potential impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation measures are discussed. There are many options for reducing climate-related risks through adaptation in the tourism sector. These can be implemented for all three of the major components of the tourism system – the source region for tourists, for tourist travel and at the destination – and at all levels, ranging from the individual tourist, operator and tourism-dependent community through to global initiatives.

A recent edition of The Economist featured a cover with the headline: ‘Why aviation will be the next green political battlefield’. Clearly there is an increasing need for policies and actions that address the various roles tourism plays with respect to climate change. Increasingly we see the integration of mitigation strategies, adaptation and disaster management into a common approach of sustainable tourism development. Such ‘Climate Change Policies and Practices’ are discussed in Chapter 9. The chapter also provides an overview of key international institutions relevant to climate change and tourism as well as the major international agreements and initiatives. An iterative policy framework and process for mitigation and adaptation is proposed.

The ‘Conclusion’ (Chapter 9) highlights the importance of considering tourism as part of a much bigger system in which the interactions between tourism and climate have repercussions for a wide range of other sectors and social activities, and vice versa. The increasing incidence of weather extremes and anomalous climatic conditions, and the mounting consequences for tourism and tourism-dependent countries and communities, are timely warning of the need to give serious attention to the risks climate change poses to the tourism sector. Climate change will also provide some opportunities, though overall these will be far outweighed by the adverse impacts. This book not only describes both the risks and opportunities but also provides the reader with practical guidance and examples for managing the risks and taking advantage of the opportunities. As a significant emitter of GHGs, in the longer term the tourism industry can also help slow the rate of climate change. Again, practical guidance and examples are provided.

The book is intended to build the knowledge and understanding needed to generate the commitment by key players in tourism to initiate and sustain the actions that will reduce both tourism's contributions to climate change and the climate-related risks to tourism. While individual responsibility and action is required, it must be supported and coordinated by policies and plans at national, community, business enterprise and other relevant levels. For this reason the book targets tourism policy and decision makers in both the public and private sectors, as well as those who have leadership roles in tourism-dependent communities.

Chapter 2

The Tourism – Climate System

Key Points for Policy and Decision Makers, and Tourism Operators

• Those working in tourism are mainly concerned about climate-related risks. At the same time tourism is a very energy-intensive activity that contributes to GHG emissions and the build-up of these gases in the atmosphere.

• Interventions or responses designed to reduce climate-related risks fall into two categories: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation includes initiatives for reducing GHG emissions, whereas adaptation refers to interventions that reduce the vulnerability to climate change impacts.

• Tourism has been described as a system; earlier system approaches assumed a linear nature of tourism, which failed to capture the true complexity of tourism. The open and complex nature of both the climate and tourism systems makes it is extremely difficult to predict, manage and control future changes.

• There are several key agents involved in tourism, namely the private sector, public sector, ‘destinations’ (with numerous agents) and tourists themselves. Interest groups are also important agents in tourism.

• It is useful to analyse the tourism agents and try to understand certain behaviours, relationships and developments. Especially for short-term planning, the pragmatic approach is to assume some sort of linearity and predictability. However, the discussion on complexity and chaos should raise awareness among professionals that they cannot control or predict tourism's evolution.

• The climate system has been modified by humans as a result of GHG emissions. These ‘trap’ solar energy and raise the temperature of the Earth's surface. This raised temperature is termed the natural greenhouse effect. Climate projections are associated with considerable uncertainties.

• One manifestation of uncertainty is the ability of the climate system to undergo abrupt and pervasive changes; such changes are termed ‘surprises’, and present a significant challenge to tourism and other policy makers and planners.

• Climate – and in particular temperature – is an important factor in destination choice, although recent research indicates that destination choice is more complex than assumed in current models.

• Several ‘climate–tourism hotspots’ – parts of the world where high tourist arrivals are forecast, or tourism will be a major contributor to the national economy, and significant changes in climate are projected for the near term – can be identified; these are Alpine Europe, Western Europe, Central/Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, North- and South-eastern USA, Mexico and the Caribbean, China, and the small islands in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

• In a chaos model of tourism, the climate (system) can be interpreted as an externality. This suggests that key agents with a vested interest in maintaining the stability of the tourism system should be working proactively to avoid, or at least delay, major changes in the climate system. By doing so, these agents are in fact internalising the externality.

Introduction

There are multiple interactions between tourism and the climate. In the first instance climate is a resource for tourism and it is an essential ingredient in the tourism product and experience. At the same time, climate poses a risk to tourism. For example, as a result of climate variability, weather conditions at a given location and time may prevent tourists from engaging in their planned activities. This is the case for skiers when there are snow-poor winters in alpine tourist destinations. A similar situation exists when conditions are unseasonably cool and wet at beach destinations. Climate can also pose a severe risk in relation to extreme events such as hurricanes and floods. These put both tourists and tourism-oriented businesses at risk, including damage to tourism infrastructure and increased financial costs combined with lower incomes.

Those working in the tourism industry are mainly concerned about such climate-related risks as those described above. However, there is another important link between tourism and climate that is causing increasing concern. Tourism is a very energy-intensive activity that contributes to GHG emissions and the build-up of these gases in the atmosphere. One result is an exacerbation of risks due to a changing climate, with detrimental impacts on tourism.

There are many opportunities for the tourism sector to reduce emissions of GHG gases. But if these opportunities are not taken up proactively, the opportunities can soon turn into additional risks. With the increasing recognition of climate change as a major environmental issue that must be addressed in a concerted manner, there is a developing consensus on policies such as taxing airlines for their emissions of GHGs.

These diverse relationships between tourism and climate are visualised in a simplified manner in Figure 2.1. The consequences of climate change for tourism manifest as risks. The decision maker and planner will find it useful to differentiate between acceptable and unacceptable risks. For example a certain level of variability in snow conditions will be acceptable to the operator of a ski facility, but the risk of a permanently higher snowline (say above the operating elevation of the facility) will not be. Such considerations facilitate the prioritisation of the unacceptable risks as well as of the interventions, which will reduce them to acceptable levels.

Figure 2.1 Framework for assessing the relationship between tourism and climate change, including possible responses by tourism to mitigate impacts or adapt to changes in the climate

Interventions or responses designed to reduce climate-related risks fall into two categories (Figure 2.1). First, mitigation initiatives reduce GHG emissions (see Chapter 7 for detailed examples) and, as explained in Chapter 5, the likelihood of a specific climate hazard or condition. But present efforts related to mitigation, such as those under the Kyoto Protocol, are proving to be woefully inadequate. Emissions reductions of at least 60% are required to stop further increases in the greenhouse effect. In comparison, the Kyoto Protocol (which includes commitments only to 2012) will achieve emission reductions of only 5.5% reduction in emissions, and only if there is full compliance! Thus further climate change is inevitable. Moreover, even if the necessary reductions in emissions were to be achieved tomorrow, changes in the climate will still occur. This is due to inertia in the climate system. Thus mitigation brings climate benefits only in the longer term. However, mitigation of GHG emissions does generate short-term opportunities and benefits for tourism, for example through energy conservation and increased use of renewable energy.

Given that mitigation measures will reduce climate-related risks only in the longer term, actions that fall into the second category will be required, at least in the shorter term. Unlike mitigation, these interventions deal with the consequence component of risk. As explained in detail in Chapter 8, these interventions reduce risk through disaster reduction and wider adaptation initiatives. Illustrative examples of relevance to tourism include: (a) ensuring that both operational staff and guests are well informed of the actions to be taken should, say, a tropical cyclone be predicted to pass close to or over the tourist facility and (b) installing and maintaining a desalination plant so that water requirements can be met during a severe drought.

Figure 2.1 assumes that the relationships are linear and that the interactions between tourism and climate are deterministic. In this logic it is possible to control the effects, i.e. reduce the risks and maximise the opportunities, if we put the appropriate policy instruments and management procedures in place. The implicit assumption is that when tourism operators and others working in the sector respond to climate change, their actions will result in a direct reduction in the level of climate-related risk.

However, as has been pointed out in the tourism literature (albeit infrequently, for example by Faulkner & Russell, 1997), tourism is often wrongly characterised as a linear system, much in the way the climate–tourism system is described in Figure 2.1. This fails to capture the true complexity of tourism. In fact, both tourism and climate operate individually and jointly as open systems that are also non-linear, non-probabilistic and non-deterministic as a result of the complex, dynamic relations between and among them and their constituent elements. Thus it is inappropriate to pursue a reductionist approach to understanding the interactions between the tourism and climate systems, as would be the case if each component and linkage shown in Figure 2.1 was to be analysed individually. Importantly, characterising and combining the individual interactions will in itself not provide a fully integrated understanding of the relationships between tourism and climate. The open and complex nature of these systems also means that it is extremely difficult to predict, manage and control future changes with any level of practical significance and relevance. What this means for tourism will be discussed in the next section.

This chapter will outline the interpretation of tourism as a system, first from a deterministic perspective and subsequently by applying the more recent understanding of tourism as a complex system. The characteristics of tourism and climate (encompassing the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land and biosphere) as complex systems will be discussed, including the implications for managing the interactions with the climate system, which have either detrimental or beneficial consequences for tourism. While the interactions between and within two systems of such complexity often go beyond what can be explained with current methods and understanding, some examples will be used to illustrate the nature of these interactions and the implications for policy making, planning and management.

The Tourism System

Evolution of the understanding of tourism

Over the last 20 years a number of models have been developed to try to explain what tourism is, its makeup, how it works and what kinds of relationships exist (see also Chapter 4). These models have been useful for research on climate change and tourism. For example, defining who a tourist is, and what forms part of tourism, is important to the climate change discussion. Any assessment of tourism's relationship with the global climate, including its changes, requires an understanding and agreement of the variety and kinds of activities and stakeholders involved. When one attempts to analyse tourism's vulnerability to extreme weather events or climate change (see Chapter 8) it is useful to understand where the boundaries between tourism and the rest of the economy are. This makes it possible to look at the tourism system in isolation or in relation to interactions with other systems. Similarly, a clear distinction of tourism– as opposed to other human activities– is required when quantifying GHG emissions by tourism activities (see Chapter 6).

The UNWTO defines tourism as the activities of persons travelling to and staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the exercise of an activity remunerated from within the place visited. UNWTO uses the term ‘visitors’ to describe those persons travelling and also specifies that visitors are the sum of same-day visitors and overnight visitors (also called tourists).

Furthermore, UNWTO argues that tourism includes total consumption expenditure made by a visitor, or on behalf of a visitor, for and during his/her trip and stay at a destination. Hence, the basic assumption is that tourism is not defined by a specifically delivered product or service, but rather by those who consume such goods and services. For example, when they visit a tourist attraction tourists demand services from the commercial sector. Tourists are also key users of the transport sector. Tourism also involves intangible elements, such as experiences, enjoyment, excitement and relaxation. The entirety of businesses involved in providing tourism products or services can be called the tourism industry. A wider perspective considers that there is considerable input by governments (both national and local), the environment and local communities into tourism. The combination of all those inputs into tourism has been referred to as the tourism sector.

It was argued, early on in tourism research, that by analysing disaggregated components of tourism it is possible to build-up an understanding of tourism as a whole (Pearce, 1989). This and similar approaches are in the first instance very reductionist. As a result they fail to explain more complex relationships, interactions, interdependencies and impacts. Carlsen (1999: 322) argued that ‘a systems approach would best be applied to problem solving in tourism research because it can accommodate social and environmental processes’ and that the tourism system would be ‘an open system in that it responds to changes in the social, natural and economic environment and is evolving toward an increasing state of complexity’.

The first to apply a systems approach to tourism was Leiper, in 1979. The core idea of Leiper's model was that the tourist-generating region and the host destination are linked via the transit route. This applies to each individual tourist. The approach has been taken up and developed further in a multitude of models of tourism systems. The three main elements of a tourism system are of a geographical nature (i.e. tourists travelling at least from their home to their destination and back), involve the human dimension (i.e. the visitors and the hosts) and include all those businesses that are involved directly or indirectly in tourism activities. In addition, external factors interact with the tourism system. An example in the context of this book is the role that climate plays for tourism, both as a desirable resource, or a risk (Figure 2.2).

Traditional tourism models such as that shown in Figure 2.2 assumed that tourism players function in a coordinated manner, and as a result tourism can be controlled in a top-down approach (McKercher, 1999). In response to those simplistic models, there has been a call to extend the current conceptualisation of tourism systems to include understanding gained from ecosystems research, in particular in relation to complex adaptive systems (CASs). The core idea is that tourist systems are analogous to natural ecosystems in that they are very dynamic and changeable and non-linear in their behaviour. This means that simple linear cause-and-effect relationships are unlikely to explain (temporary) equilibriums and changes (Farrell & Twining-Ward, 2005). The traditional approaches to tourism fail to acknowledge the element of uncertainty and chaos. Farrell and Twining-Ward argued that new science (post-normal or non-linear science) is needed to better understand tourism as a CAS. The term post-normal science (Funtowicz & Ravetz, 1993) is increasingly being used to describe science that deals with facts that are uncertain, that incorporates values and where the stakes are high in relation to outcomes.

Figure 2.2 A model of the tourism system

Source: after Leiper (1995)

There is an increasing body of literature on complex (adaptive) systems and chaos theory. Tourism may be described as a CAS. CASs are made up of agents, for example tourism businesses, tourists and other agents external to the tourism sector. These agents are semi-autonomous, but they pursue some common measure of good. Each agent interprets their situation and develops rules for their actions and behaviour. These interpretations are often based on incomplete information and depend on the agent's context (see also Elliot & Kiel, 2004).

Agents in tourism

There are several key agents involved in tourism, namely the private sector, public sector, ‘destinations’ (with numerous agents) and tourists themselves. Interest groups are also important agents in tourism.

The private sector – or the tourism industry – usually consists of a few large companies and a large number of small- to medium-sized enterprises. In many countries an industry association represents the tourism industry. Often, however, the smallest businesses are not members of those organisations and are therefore ill represented. There is a risk when businesses work independently and are as a result suboptimal. For example, the flow of information is likely to be inadequate for those disconnected from the ‘greater goal’ of the industry.

The public sector typically consists of national or central government, and regional and local governments, depending on how the tourist destination is structured. The different levels of government have different responsibilities and interact in different spheres with tourism. The national government is typically responsible for transport networks, border control, security, health services and general infrastructure. Tourism businesses and tourists themselves make extensive use of these public sector services. In turn, the national government taxes tourism,