How I Made a 13.2% Profit Betting the 2018 College Football Season with a Simple Method

Ken Osterman

Disclaimer

Although the author and publisher have made every effort to ensure that the information in this book was correct at press time, the author and publisher do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause.

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Copyright © Matthew Lashley and Teela Books 2020

All rights reserved

Table of Contents

Introduction

The Betting Odds Analysis Method

A Few Explanatory Notes

Week  5  3-2

Week  6  6-3

Week  7  3-3-1

Week  8  4-2

Week  9  7-3

Week 10  5-3

Week 11  5-2

Week 12  5-3

Week 13  3-7

Final Comments

Appendix A

Understanding the Point Spreads Las Vegas Sports Books

Appendix B

Division I-A Power Five Conferences

Introduction 

Due to family issues I was having in 2018, there was no time to do the extensive handicapping that I normally engage in during the college football season. I did, however, make many bets, but I used a mechanical method I developed that I named The Betting Odds Analysis Method. 

This method is simple and easy to use. I use these calculations as a part of a more comprehensive method that I use that is not mechanical, and like other successful handicappers, relies on subjective analysis.

However, as a mechanical method, it can be very powerful and used as a springboard for bigger and better things as a college football handicapper. This method was used for all 13 weeks of the 2018 college football season and showed a nice profit. It may seem a bit confusing at first, but once you learn the rules, and with a little practice, you can do it yourself with ease. I call this system The Betting Odds Analysis Method.

The Betting Odds Analysis Method

College football betting can be very confusing to those who are more familiar with betting on professional football. There are many differences between college and pro football, but what stands out the most is less parity between teams. This is due to the level of abilities being more evenly matched than people realize. On any given Sunday, any pro team can beat another team. This saying is true, but not for college teams on any given Saturday.

College football betting in Las Vegas is limited to NCAA division I FBS teams. FBS stands for Football Bowl Subdivisions. There are 10 conferences within this subdivision. They are the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC, American, Mountain West, MAC, Conference USA, and the Sun Belt. It is teams from these conferences that will play in bowl games in post season play. However, these 10 conferences do not represent parity between them. The championship team will almost always come from the top five conferences: the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC. Every year there will be a team or two from each of these conferences that are weak, but this system limits play to games played by teams from these top five conferences. It still gives the opportunity to find plenty of good wagers while simultaneously narrowing the list of games to those played by talented teams.

Handicapping college football games can be difficult because the scores can vary wildly. Limiting handicapping to the top five power conferences helps, but there are still many teams at the bottom of these conferences that are weak. So when better teams play them, the winning margins can be high. Add to this, there are teams in top five conferences that play weak teams in the bottom five FBS conferences that can lead to large winning margins. And if that is not enough, top five conference teams will often play teams in the FCS (Football Championship Subdivision). Most of this occurs during the beginning of the season and are basically practice games. For all of these mismatches, a point differential method that I use for NFL games simply will not work. Instead, I focus on how well a team did against the spread. This method is quite similar to what I use with college basketball games, but there are important differences. The following are the rules and an explanation for each rule.

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Here are the steps to this method:

1) First look for two teams from the top five conferences playing each other today. Look at the point spread for today's game. If it is less than or equal to 9.5 points, it can be handicapped.

2) Calculate each team's variance from the spread of each of its last three games. You will compare the point spread for a particular game to the result