Run Mitch, Run: The Hard Decisions One Man Faced for the 2012 Presidential Election

RUN

MITCH,

RUN

The Hard Decisions One Man Faced for the 2012 Presidential Election

DON V. COGMAN

Afterword by

MITCH DANIELS

RUN MITCH, RUN

THE HARD DECISIONS ONE MAN FACED FOR

THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Copyright © 2014 Don V. Cogman.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means, graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping or by any information storage retrieval system without the written permission of the publisher except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

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ISBN: 978-1-4917-5106-0 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-4917-5105-3 (e)

ISBN: 978-1-4917-5577-8 (sc)

iUniverse rev. date: 12/08/2014

Contents

Author’s Notes and Acknowledgments

Introduction

Prologue

Part 1 - 2009

The Beginning

Next Steps

Part II - 2010

2010 Begins

The Arizona Meeting

Post-Arizona Meeting

Residence Dinners

Additional Travel and Events

Momentum Continues Driven by the Media

Thin Skin (and Occasional Humor)

Policy Issues

People

The Youth and Hispanic Vote: Could We Get Them Back?

Crises within the Campaign

Crisis Number Two: The Social Truce

Crisis Number Three: Stimulus Flip-Flop

Crisis Number Four: Press Leak

Crises Number Five: VAT Comment at Hudson Institute

August Strategy Meeting

August to November Election Day

Election Day to December

December Strategy Meeting

Part III - 2011

The Year of Decision

Two Major Events

The Legislative Session

Momentum Continues to Build

The Final Twenty Days to a Decision

Cheri and the Family

The Final Decision

The Remaining Months

Part IV - 2012

Election Year

Epilogue

Afterword by Mitch Daniels

Appendix

      The CPAC Speech

The Gridiron Speech

Notes

For Susie, Bryan, Marc, Clay, and Caroline,

the loves of my life forever

and

In Memoriam

W. Dennis Thomas

Friend and Colleague of Forty Years

12/8/1943 – 9/23/2014

Democracy is not a numbers game. A good leader does not count opinion, but weighs it. We urgently need leaders who dare to tell us what we need to hear, not what we want to hear.

—Richard C. Halverson

Chaplain, US Senate

July 1984

Author’s Notes and Acknowledgments

If you’ve been as fortunate in your professional life as I have, to work with exceptional people and experience significant events, you come to a point where friends and colleagues of many years attain positions of leadership in both business and government.

It always amazed me to stop occasionally and look around:

There’s Haley Barbour, a friend and field man for the Republican National Committee (RNC) when I was working as an aide in the US Senate. He’s now the governor of Mississippi.

There’s Roy Blunt, a friend and former lower-level state official in Missouri when I was running a corporate Washington office. He’s now a United States senator.

There’s Dennis Thomas, a fellow senate administrative assistant on Capitol Hill. He’s now deputy chief of staff to the president of the United States.

And on and on.

One day, my amazement reached a new peak as I browsed the Wall Street Journal. A longtime friend and colleague from my Washington days was mentioned on September 26, 2009, as perhaps the most successful Republican governor in the entire nation. The columnist, Kimberley Strassel, asked, What if he ran for president?¹

So began the odyssey of Mitch Daniels and his pursuit, or non-pursuit, of the presidency of the United States. This passionate, arduous journey that would take nine of us around the nation and through profound emotional highs and lows started on that day, September 29, 2009. It ended on May 21, 2011. Another two years passed until I decided someone needed to tell the story. I had kept my files and voluminous notes locked away in a storage box just in case. I was finally motivated by a call from Rick Powell, a friend and colleague who worked for me right out of college for nearly ten years in both Washington and New York and who participated in those meetings with Mitch as one of the group of eight.

I told Rick I had been contemplating writing the story myself but had never committed myself to the project. I had written one book several years ago—a memoir for my kids and grandkids—so I knew the time and effort it took for such an undertaking. As I told Rick, The hardest part is just starting.

Rick told me I needed to do it, saying, It’s history. I recalled a statement from someone years ago who said that if you are fortunate enough to participate in history, you have an obligation to tell the story to others who follow. I gathered my notes, organized my thoughts, tried to balance the inside story with sensitivity to others, and just … started.

This was indeed history, a story that deserved to be told—the story of what it takes to run for president and the choices one faces and the hard decisions one makes.

***

When writing a book, an author often wonders why anyone would want to read it.

I wrote this book for three reasons:

First, it is a brief glimpse into the nuts and bolts, the mechanics of the necessary steps to making a decision on whether or not to run for president of the United States. For those individuals, be they historians or practitioners who are intrigued by this process, this is a book that may be of interest.

Secondly, it is a story of Mitch Daniels’ set of beliefs—his principles and values—his attempt to answer the questions of what kind of country we are and, even more importantly, what kind of country we want to be for generations to come. It is about policy and issues and an approach to government that is quite different from what we are experiencing today. It is about competence and what is required to actually get the job done.

Thirdly, it is an inside look at the emotional journey of living in an age where good people are increasingly reluctant to get into the game of national politics because it has become so marred with lack of civility and a negativity that borders on the obscene. The savagery of the process is a primary reason why the ultimate decision is so hard.

Ultimately, I wrote this book because I thought it was an interesting story—a narrative in need of reflection and historical context for future generations.

The key players from beginning to end were the group. That is how we always referred to ourselves. We were Tom Bell, Al Hubbard, Charlie Black, Bob Perkins, Rick Powell, Mark Lubbers, Eric Holcomb, and myself. Each of my seven partners in this endeavor gave of their time and talent to see if this could be done. They did it for love of country and respect and admiration for Mitch Daniels. This is their story as much as mine, and I salute them as comrades in arms with appreciation for their friendship and their many contributions.

And, of course, Mitch Daniels himself. US Senate staffer, White House aide, cabinet member, business executive, two-term governor, exceptional writer, Mitch is a person of phenomenal intelligence combined with acute political instincts and extraordinary leadership abilities. Mitch was a person many thought could be president of the United States, but in the end, he said no. In his words, I love my country, but I love my family more.

Above all this is Mitch’s story. I write it with pride in his accomplishments and gratitude for thirty-five years of friendship.

Introduction

E very four years, we hold a presidential election in this country. But, for months and years prior to that day, men and women and their families have hard decisions to make. This is the story of one individual, Mitch Daniels, but it could apply to others who will wrestle with this same problem in years to come. The process of making hard decisions never changes.

Running for president in its rawest form is a great deal like selling a product. In the case of the presidency, the product being sold could be a vision or a governing philosophy or, in its most basic form, a person. Therefore, the objective is to differentiate yourself, just like you try to differentiate a product, as you take your message to the public.

So the question was, why Mitch Daniels? What made people believe that 2012 was his time, that he had something unique to offer, and that he was different from all the rest, particularly when the presidency was never a part of his career game plan?

Mitch had the normal impressive résumé that most candidates for the presidency have by the time they declare an interest. He came from a middle-class Indiana family and graduated from Princeton and then Georgetown Law School. He was experienced in local government, serving as chief aide to then mayor Richard Lugar of Indianapolis; experienced in state government, serving two terms as governor; and experienced in Washington, having served as chief of staff to Senator Richard Lugar, assistant to the president for Political Affairs for President Ronald Reagan, and a cabinet member with President George W. Bush as director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

He also had an impressive private sector career, both in the profit and nonprofit worlds. Mitch was the president and CEO of the Hudson Institute, a well-respected think tank headquartered in Indianapolis. Next he went to Eli Lilly & Co., serving in various capacities, including president of North American operations, and ultimately taking charge of strategic planning for the entire global company.

Mitch became a grandfather a few years ago with all of his four daughters now married and living nearby in Indiana. He was known to be smart (very smart); competitive; and personally, famously frugal. He had a dry sense of humor and a winning smile that would occasionally help him when dealing with adversarial opponents who might invite confrontation. But most of the time he was the picture of humility, always willing to stop and talk with any citizen. He was famous for staying in the homes of ordinary Hoosiers when traveling the state in his RV.

At times, Mitch could be impatient and exhibit a stubborn streak. But most of all he was the definition of competence. He had that rare combination of great political skill and instinct combined with an intellectual intelligence that enabled him to expertly deal with most major policy issues.

The most relevant evaluation of Mitch Daniels is to analyze what was arguably his most difficult job and one in which he was actually in charge, being governor of the state of Indiana.

Mitch himself, however, has said the experience that contributed most to his ability to be a good governor was his stint in private business. That manifested itself in the way he tried to operate government as any business would, by having a central objective that all aspects of the enterprise serve. He said, For us in Indiana, that objective was raising the net disposable income of all Hoosiers.

After sixteen years of Democrats in the statehouse, Mitch turned a $700 million deficit into a $1 billion surplus. When asked how he did it, he famously said, Prepare to be dazzled. We spent less money than we took in.

As governor, Mitch used a previously unused power called allotment that gave him the ability to not spend money appropriated by the legislature. He cut $800 million from state government in fiscal 2009, another $190 million in renegotiating state contracts, and another $250 million in unnecessary spending and eliminated five thousand government positions.

However, he also provided additional funds for things he believed important—800 new child protection caseworkers, 250 more state troopers, and increased spending for education. Health and welfare expenditures and efficiency increased in categories ranging from child immunizations to developmental disability to welfare benefits management. Veteran’s benefits, child services, prescription drug benefits—all increased.

In 2005, Mitch’s Kids, a partnership between state government and the Boys and Girls Clubs in Indiana, was created. Tens of thousands of students have participated in the program to improve reading and math skills. In 2006, 10,000 Indiana children were in a full-day kindergarten program; in 2012, over 66,000 were participating, and the program was fully funded throughout the entire state. Indiana led the nation in its dedication to K–12 education with 55.4 percent of its general fund being spent on this most critical area. Meanwhile, the graduation rate of Indiana students at the end of his term was up 10 percent.

Midway through his first term, Mitch signed legislation that established the Healthy Indiana Plan, a program that gave state employees the option of switching to health plans with health savings accounts. It covered 130,000 uninsured, where participants contributed to their account based on income, with the state of Indiana and private insurance also participating. It was designed to make certain everyone, with a few exceptions, had skin in the game and didn’t expose taxpayers to the catastrophe in other states that had an entitlement program.

His reputation was that of a governor who restored fiscal integrity to the state. He paid back over $750 million to local government and schools that had payment delays initiated by previous administrations. He enacted the biggest tax cut in state history with property taxes cut and capped permanently.

Customer service was improved and state government streamlined. He created the Office of Management and Budget at the state level for financial oversight and management. He changed the culture of state employment through pay for performance (the only state to provide it for every state employee), and Indiana now has the fewest state employees per capita in the country.

One significant action impacting nearly every citizen was reorganizing the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. It is now a model for the country, where the average visit time of seven minutes and thirty-six seconds is a remarkable accomplishment, due to new incentives for government workers that reward efficiency and speed.

Economic development was the key to enabling Indiana to experience an unprecedented, record-breaking job growth during his tenure as governor. Average wages were substantially increased, and corporate tax rates were decreased. Multibillions of dollars were attracted in foreign investment due to Indiana’s business-friendly tax environment.

In addition, sweeping ethics reform and increased transparency had become a mainstay in state government by the time Mitch concluded his two terms. The Office of Inspector General was created in 2005 to fight fraud and abuse in state government. The state received multiple awards from national organizations for achievement in transparency and governance.

***

Those of us who had known Mitch Daniels for many years knew he was smart. We knew he had leadership qualities and was capable of managing large enterprises. He was experienced in both business and government. What we didn’t know was, could he be a good candidate? How would he do at retail politics?

During both his campaigns for governor, Mitch traveled the state in an RV, labeled RV One. He visited counties and towns that had never even seen a real candidate for governor, let alone personally talked with one. At the end of the campaign, Mitch wrote a book entitled Notes from the Road: 16 Months of Towns, Tales and Tenderloin. Hundreds of examples of Mitch’s expertise in retail politics were demonstrated, but one story gave us a clue. Mitch reported:

Nothing could top our Unplanned Stop of the Week, which came after dinner in Kentland. County Assessor Janice Wilson mentioned to me at dinner that she was headed to band practice that evening. Now, Janice is a beautiful lady, but let me just say that she’s a few decades out of high school, so I inquired what kind of band she was in.

Turns out they have a Newton/Jasper Community Band, made up almost entirely of senior citizens who just love to get together and play for events in the area. So I invited myself, and before the night was over, two great things had happened. First, I realized my lifelong ambition to conduct a band, and feel that sense of power that Mr. Laswell had over us back at Westlane Junior High.

Second, as I was thanking the band, a hand went up in the French horn section and a sweet little lady asked, If you get elected governor, can we play at your inaugural?

So, be on notice everybody. If this project of ours should go the distance, you are in for a treat, because you are going to hear the Newton/Jasper Community Band, and they can really play. Even with a rookie conductor.

And, they did, twice, in both 2005 and 2009. Now, that’s retail politics.

***

Mitch always said that he wanted the people of Indiana to expect great things from their government—to expect it to do things that would benefit all citizens.

So, what makes Mitch Daniels unique? Columnist Ryan Streeter wrote, Daniels is not like other political creatures. His sober sensibility is a part of his appeal. He was a frugal cost-cutter before it was cool. He has regular-guy appeal and efficacy as a public executive, riding his Harley and stopping in run-of-the-mill diners.²

Asked by Streeter why he was a Republican, Mitch explained that he always tried to stay away from labels. For him, it was an issue of unity and a very strong belief that individual liberty and dignity was far more important than any label. He also believed that government was there to protect the freedom of individuals, not overstep its role in dictating how they were supposed to live.

Why Mitch Daniels? Why did a group of eight individuals devote nearly two years to working on the idea that perhaps this was his time? We did so not only because we believed in Mitch Daniels, the individual, but also because of our concern for the future of our country.

Mitch believed we needed a survival agenda, that our country was going down the wrong path with policies that would burden the next generation with a debt so overwhelming it would change the very fabric of our nation. His focus was to have an honest adult conversation with the American people and be willing to talk truth about critical issues.

He believed strongly that you had to run to govern, not just to win an election. His stance on social issues was very much in sync with a majority of Republicans, but he believed it necessary for people to understand that we needed to focus on our fiscal crises first and foremost.

Why Mitch Daniels? Because, in fact, he was different. He was willing to meet the major crisis—government’s continual propensity to spend money we didn’t have, thereby mortgaging the future for generations to come—head-on.

Multiple and diverse reasons fuel an individual’s difficult decision to run for president of the United States. Many who have no chance whatsoever of winning run. What made this story different was that Mitch Daniels had a realistic chance. At one point in this journey, Mitch was on the cover of the three most important publications impacting the race for the Republican nomination—National Review, the Weekly Standard, and the American Spectator.

The momentum was building for the un-Obama, an ideal contrast to the incumbent, as stated in the chronicle of the 2012 campaign Double Down by Mark Halperin and John Heilemann.³

Hard decisions lay ahead. Could we convince him the country needed him at this unique time in history?

Equally important, could we convince his family?

Prologue

T he day was cold in Indianapolis, December 14, 2010. But the group had just finished a two-day strategy meeting in the residence of the governor of Indiana, and we were warm, even hot, with enthusiasm and optimism.

After nearly a year of indecision and uncertainty, Governor Mitch Daniels had answered the last question of the day put to him by Tom Bell. So, where is your head? Are we going to do this or not?

Mitch answered, I’m 80 percent there.

We were all stunned and ecstatic. He said the family was still an issue, but he didn’t see anyone else who could do it. He was convinced we had the right message and believed it just might be possible.

The group, the same eight people who’d first gathered in my living room in Scottsdale, Arizona, at the beginning of the year, had just finished a two-day meeting where we talked issues, scheduling, personnel, financing, and a host of other items on which to focus as we entered 2011. We had come a long way since that first phone call in 2009 when Mitch told me, That is the dumbest idea you’ve ever come up with, and proceeded to completely dismiss the idea of considering a run for the presidency.

Most of the group was leaving for the airport, but I had already planned to stay the night to have dinner with Mitch and his wife, Cheri. The last decision we made at our meeting was to have me bring up the subject with Cheri at dinner. We were to have a serious conversation about our yearlong efforts and why we thought this was his time. I had known Cheri almost as long as I had known Mitch, so I was the elected person to have what we thought might be a pivotal conversation.

As the meeting was breaking up, Mitch asked me to join him downstairs in the study when everyone had departed. As I entered the room with the fire blazing in the fireplace, he closed the door and said he didn’t want to say this in front of the group because everyone was so enthusiastic, but he thought the family was a major problem—perhaps a greater problem than he had even thought several months ago.

My warm feeling immediately turned cold. All of us had concluded our meeting with a feeling that this really might be happening. Now, something was telling me we had an obstacle that was real and perhaps unrelenting. I asked if it was Cheri or the girls or all of the above. He replied all of the above. I asked what he thought I could say that would change their minds, and he said he didn’t know.

I then suggested it might be better if I met her before we had dinner and had a conversation just between us. I thought perhaps the talk might be more productive with just the two of us, and he agreed. So we set it up, and I returned to Al Hubbard’s, where I was staying, and began to prepare.

Many highlights occurred in this journey with Mitch, but this one was perhaps the most critical of all. How do you convince a spouse and four children, grown children, that our country needed their husband and father? It was a decision that would potentially change their lives forever.

That was what consumed my thoughts as I walked into the residence three hours later to have a conversation with my old friend, Cheri Daniels.

PART 1

2009

The Beginning

I t started with an article in the Wall Street Journal , an interview for the Saturday edition on September 26, 2009, by Kimberley Strassel. When asked about running for president, Governor Mitch Daniels laughed and said, You’ll be the first to know, but don’t hang around the phone, completely dismissing the idea and moving on to other subjects having to do with Indiana.

Strassel wrote, The Indiana governor is answering a question he gets asked a lot these days. Will he run for president? He keeps saying no, but the collapse of such GOP notables as Sarah Palin and Mark Sanford has people looking north. Mr. Daniels is today something rare indeed: a popular Republican.⁴

A few other articles, mostly local, had raised the question columnist Chris Cillizza asked on May 12, 2009, with his column in the Washington Post, Can Mitch Daniels Save the GOP? He contended the Republican Party was continuing to search for fresh faces and new leaders, and Daniels’ success in his 2008 reelection campaign as governor was built on two pillars—populism and competence.

It is interesting to note Cillizza’s comment: Daniels may be overshadowed somewhat by his fellow governors with higher national profiles, Bobby Jindal (La.), Mark Sanford (S.C.) and Tim Pawlenty (Minn.).⁵ Jindal never seriously considered a run after a lackluster convention speech among other things, Sanford resigned in a personal scandal, and Pawlenty was the first in and first out as a presidential candidate who never got any traction.

Later in the year, a guest columnist in the Washington Times called Mitch reform-minded, outlining his success as governor and pointing to his push for Republicans to appeal to young voters on a national level—not just to gain votes but because today’s young people will be tomorrow’s leaders (and the inheritors of the nation’s debt). The column noted that Mitch had won the youth vote by wide margins in both his gubernatorial races and quoted him as saying, Our deficit levels threaten the well-being of the next generation; we are stealing from our sons and daughters.⁶

A few weeks went by, and I decided to call Mitch just to get his reaction to the article. He was appreciative of the call—and of a few others he had received—but basically took none of the chatter seriously. He again dismissed the notion of even considering a run for the presidency.

I then traded e-mails with a number of friends, asking whether or not they had seen the article and generally soliciting opinions on the state of the Union and Republican prospects for the future. One in particular mentioned well-known columnist George Will, who in her opinion would be very interested in a Daniels candidacy, saying, He would respect Mitch’s intelligence because George’s #1 goal from now on is to only support smart candidates!

Several more weeks passed, and I decided to send Mitch an e-mail on September 26, saying the Wall Street Journal article had interested multiple people and, Could we not have a small, quiet meeting somewhere with a few people just to discuss it? His response that same day was, Okay, if only for the fun of seeing you guys. I told him I’d work on it.

On October 1, I sent him an e-mail indicating that Tom Bell was interested in getting together. Tom was an old friend, now a leading businessman in Atlanta with years of political experience. Tom made the suggestion we include Al Hubbard, local Indianapolis businessman, former national economic advisor in the White House to President George W. Bush, and a longtime friend of Mitch.

The idea was to get together for golf, dinner, and discussion. I offered my home in Scottsdale, Arizona, and also suggested the Greenbrier, in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia, where Mitch had a home, or New York City, where all of us had other things we could do and where Mitch could visit one of his daughters. We also considered coming to Indianapolis to make it easy on him, and he indicated we could stay at the governor’s residence (he didn’t reside