How to Make the Future into What You Want It to Be: The Art and Science of Exerting Influence to Get What You Want

How to Make

the Future into

What You Want

It to Be

The Art and Science of Exerting Influence to Get What You Want

GERARD G. NAHUM, MD

Copyright © 2018 Gerard G. Nahum, MD.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced by any means, graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping or by any information storage retrieval system without the written permission of the author except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews.

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The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

This book is a work of non-fiction. Unless otherwise noted, the author and the publisher make no explicit guarantees as to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and in some cases, names of people and places have been altered to protect their privacy.

ISBN: 978-1-4808-5586-1 (sc)

ISBN: 978-1-4808-5587-8 (hc)

ISBN: 978-1-4808-5588-5 (e)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2018900096

Archway Publishing rev. date: 2/9/2018

Contents

PREFACE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

1.   Making the Future the Way You Want It to Be

2.   The Starting Point: Where We Are Now

A.   We Are Where We Are

B.   There Were Many Different Ways to Get to the Present

C.   The Present Appears Dynamic, but It Is a State Function

3.   Past History: Does It Matter?

A.   The Past Already Happened

B.   The Future Is Separated from the Past by What Happens in the Present

C.   Inertia and Momentum: What Effect Do They Have on Continuity?

D.   The Present Is the Launching Point for What Will Occur Going Forward

4.   The Evolution of Objects, Events, and Circumstances: What Does It Depend On?

A.   Causality

B.   Control: Influencing in the Ways that We Want

5.   Evaluating Situations: Information Gathering, Processing, and Assessment

A.   Perception

B.   Processing Information: Logic and Inference

i.   Mathematics: The Ultimate Logical System

ii.   Deductive Logic: Inferences about the Past and Present

iii.   Inductive Reasoning: Predictions about the Future and Other Places

C.   Analysis

D.   Knowledge

E.   Understanding

6.   Trajectories: Paths Taken by Evolving Objects, Events, and Circumstances

A.   Trajectories

B.   Continuity (Smoothness) versus Discontinuity (Roughness)

C.   Stability versus Instability: System Inertia and Resilience

D.   Dynamic Certainty versus Uncertainty

7.   Generalization: Building Concepts From Prior Observations

A.   The Recognition And Application Of Previous Trends And Patterns

B.   What Is The Utility Of Being Able To Generalize?

C.   What Are The Limits And Constraints Of Generalization?

8.   Predictions: What They Depend On

A.   Using Prior Observations To Make Forward-Looking Predictions

B.   Projecting Prior Trajectories Forward

C.   Computing Outcomes Moving Forward Based On Previously Collected Information

D.   Drawing Parallels To Prior Experiences

9.   Changing Trajectories Through Interventions

A.   Defining Where We Are, Where We Want To Go, And If We’re On The Right Path

B.   Accurate And Precise Measurements: The Sine Qua Non For Obtaining Information

C.   Are Our Actions Voluntary Or Were They Already Determined?

D.   Intended Versus Unintended Consequences

10.   Directing Trajectories In The Ways You Want Them To Go

A.   Directing Trajectories: What Are The Opportunities And Constraints?

B.   What Can Be Done To Influence Advancing Trajectories Successfully?

C.   Minding The Store: The Need For Attention, Reassessment, And Redirection

11.   What Can Go Wrong And How To Manage It

A.   Everything Is For Keeps, And There Are No Do-Overs

i.   Physical Laws That Prohibit The Spontaneous Reversal Of State Sequences

ii.   Every Subsequent State Is A New Launching Point

B.   Incomplete Models Are Prone To Errors

C.   Uncertainty: How The Very Small Can Result In Large Deviations

D.   Chaotic Dynamics: Implications For Macroscopic Predictability

E.   Entanglement: Can Things Be Circumscribed And Separated, Or Is Everything Connected?

12.   Conclusions: How To Direct The Future To Where You Want It To Go

A.   Opportunities And Constraints

B.   Choose Your Goals Wisely

C.   Limit Your Goals To The Minimum Number Needed To Accomplish Your Purpose

D.   Gather As Much Information As Possible And Analyze It Within The Shortest Time

E.   Control: Choosing Interventions For Maximum Effect With The Greatest Predictability

F.   Bring The Proper Amount Of Force To Bear On The Situation You Want To Influence

G.   Be Prepared For Unintended Consequences And Intervene Quickly, If Necessary

H.   Applicability

I.   Final Considerations

13.   Summary And Potential Strategies

Appendix A Systems And States

Appendix B Assessing If A Relationship Is Causal Or An Association

Appendix C Consistency And Completeness: Implications Of Gödel’s Theorems

Appendix D Uncorrectable Local Information Deficits And Their Causes

Appendix E The Limitations Of Formal Logic

Appendix F Accuracy And Precision In Measurement

Appendix G Mechanisms Of Perception

Appendix H Chaos Theory

Appendix I Algorithms: What They Are And When They Are Useful

Appendix J Nonlinear Couplings And Resonances

Appendix K Calculability Versus Determinism

Appendix L The Restrictions Imposed By Quantum Uncertainty

Appendix M Bell’s Theorem And Separability

Footnotes

To my devoted teachers who showed me how to shine lights on the unknown

PREFACE

We all take actions to make the future develop in the ways we would like. But what types of strategies are best for accomplishing this? And do we employ them effectively?

This book outlines the various factors that constrain our ability to predict and influence the future, considers them in context, and proposes methods to overcome them—so as to make what lies ahead less uncertain, more predictable, and easier to control. By so doing, it emphasizes the approaches that can be used to have the best chance of directing the future to where we want it to go.

It is hoped that upon finishing this book, readers will be able to leverage the most useful techniques for molding the future successfully. They can then manage the various elements that influence it, so that they will be a step closer to making it evolve into what they want it to be.

Gerard G. Nahum, M.D.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to thank Dr. M. Wegner (Wuppertal) for posing the questions that provided me with the impetus to write this book. In addition, I would like to thank eight individuals who reviewed the manuscript to provide challenges, questions, suggestions, and visual aids to help improve both its accuracy and transparency: Dr. R. Nkulikiyinka (Berlin), Dr. M. Kunz (Berlin), Dr. M. Kremliovsky (San Diego), W.A. Smith, Esq. (New York), Dr. B. Jick (Los Angeles), D. Flam (Toronto), Dr. C. Gerlinger (Berlin), and Dr. K.Q. Pham (San Francisco). I am forever indebted to them for their invaluable assistance.

CHAPTER 1

Making the Future the Way You Want It to Be

T he present is a fait accompli. Once it is reached, it is what it is. If we want anything changed about it, it is too late. Changes can only happen when transitions are made to other situations. So we are left with only one choice: to shape events and circumstances to set things up for what we want to have occur moving ahead.

Despite participating in (and potentially enjoying) our present situation, this means that if we want to effect change, it needs to be either in the future or someplace else—not where we are now. This is because from our perspective, two things are true:

1. The present has already happened, which makes it unchangeable.

2. The future has the potential to unfold in many ways, but there are only relatively few of these that we want to occur.

Because of this, influencing in the present to arrive at future goals is what we all try to do—sometimes better than others.

To have an impact on what is yet to occur, we must make two types of predictions:

I. How the future will evolve spontaneously

II. How our interventions (e.g., actions) will influence the ways it will unfold

It is only afterward that can we hope to influence events in ways that will help us reach our goals.¹

Whether we know it or not, we generally take a structured approach to doing this by:

A. Assessing the current situation²

B. Predicting how it will evolve

C. Establishing (future) goals

D. Devising plans to make the present evolve into the future we want

E. Taking actions to direct objects, events, and circumstances so that they develop in ways to make it happen

With regard to the predictions we need to make, we typically formulate them by using one of two approaches:³

(i) Projecting prior trajectories through the present and into the future (or to other places)

(ii) Applying generalizations to new situations by assuming that previously identified trends and patterns will occur at other times and places similarly

The accuracy of both these techniques depends on first having a proper understanding of the present. For this to be correct, it must account for all influences; this means that it is only by having a complete and exact set of information that we can implement one of the two the schemas outlined in (i) or (ii).⁴ However, both the systems⁵ under consideration and the wider platforms in which they are embedded (i.e., their surroundings) must be stable⁶ for these approaches to function properly. Furthermore, to make predictions, we also assume that

a. the present is well-defined (i.e., it is unambiguous as a starting point),

b. causality is the universal instrument of change (i.e., that one event is connected to the next, which is connected to the next, and so on), and

c. we know and understand completely the rules that govern the changes between states⁷ (i.e., the laws of change).

By combining these elements, our presumption is that if we understand the present completely and exactly, and if causality is what dictates all changes, then we can predict how the present will evolve as it moves ahead with a high degree of certainty.

To use this approach, we must assess

■ what the differences are between the goals we have set and our present situation, and

■ what sorts of factors are potentially modifiable to be able to direct the present situation toward the desired goals.

A figure depicting the schema for (a) predicting where the present situation is headed and (b) what the effects of various types of interventions will be is shown in Figure 1.

FIGURE 1

The elements for predicting (i) what the present state will evolve into spontaneously and (ii) how interventions will change the courses of objects, events, and circumstances to achieve desired goals.

The left side of the diagram depicts the change in state that is required to get from Where We Are Now (i.e., The Current Situation) to the Downstream Goal (i.e., What We Want to Have Happen). The right side of the diagram depicts the processes that are necessary to ensure that we are successful in accomplishing the desired transition.

To make the transition from the starting point to the goal, a series of steps is depicted in the large double box on the right side of the figure. To the right of the box that reads Where We Are Now are three boxes that indicate what needs to be accomplished at the outset of the process: The (1) Evaluation of the Current Situation (i.e., the Characterization of the Present State); (2) Definition of Downstream Goal (i.e., What Is Desired as the outcome moving ahead); and (3) Prediction of Downstream Situation (by spontaneous evolution of the present state without interventions).

Moving to the mid-portion of the figure on the right side, there is a box labeled Assessment of the Differences Between the Goal and Predicted Situation. If this is either Acceptable or Evolving in the Proper Direction, then No Intervention is necessary (as depicted in the box at the upper right of the figure). However, if this assessment yields a result that is either Unacceptable or Evolving in an Improper Direction, then the downward arrow leads to a box indicating the need for the Consideration of Potential Interventions to adjust the course(s) of evolving objects, events, and circumstances to reach the desired goal. This then leads to a box that requires the Prediction of Effects of Different Interventions, which is depicted at the lower right side of the figure.

Based on the additional set of predictions about how the ongoing evolution would be changed by a variety of potential interventions, there is a box moving to the left at the bottom of the figure that indicates the Best Actions to Change the Evolution of Objects, Events, and Circumstances to Reach Downstream Goal. This then results in the attainment of the Downstream Goal (i.e., What We Want to Have Happen), which is shown in the outcome box farthest to the left at the bottom of the figure.

Nonetheless, there is often a significant gulf between this set of expectations for making accurate predictions and our typical reality. This is because real predictions are based on

opreviously collected information that is both incomplete and inexact,

oincomplete analyses of available information, and

oa belief that prior trajectories—as well as prior trends and patterns—can be accurately projected (or applied) to other times and places, despite factors that can routinely derail them.⁸

The chapters that follow describe the issues that can either help or hinder our ability to both predict and influence the evolution of situations as they advance. A set of tools is then developed to minimize the uncertainties associated with our predictions and interventions, so that we can reach our goals more effectively and consistently.

CHAPTER 2

The Starting Point: Where We Are Now

A. We Are Where We Are

W e all begin our quest to shape the future from where we have the ability to take actions, which is in the present. Accordingly, the present can be regarded as the launching point for the evolution of objects, events, and circumstances as they advance.

This leads to an important implication: Even if we could have had an influence to make our current reality different from what it is (i.e., shaped the past differently), it doesn’t matter anymore once we arrive in the present;⁹ there is simply no longer any way to change it.

The past, the present, and the future are different, but we also believe that they are connected in a sequence; as time passes, the present becomes the (near) past and the (near) future becomes the present. In this sense, we view the present as a moving target, being both dependent on the past and the point of embarkation for what will occur in the future.

As has already been discussed, to decide if something must be done to make the future into what we want it to be, we must first make predictions about how the present will evolve spontaneously. From what has been presented thus far, we can conclude that the following are necessary to make these predictions:

1. A complete and exact understanding of the present

2. An understanding of the rules governing the evolution of objects, events, and circumstances

3. A presumption that objects, events, and circumstances—and the environments in which they evolve—are stable

In addition, there is another assumption we make that is even more basic: that what has already happened is fixed so that it cannot be changed.¹⁰

I will discuss each point listed above separately, starting with the last.

In general, we presume that objects, events, and circumstances are stable (i.e., that they do not undergo rapid, unpredictable changes).¹¹ However, this is largely dependent on another concept: continuity.¹² This presupposes that objects, events, and circumstances have a connection to those that existed previously.

But even if objects, events, and circumstances are stable, in the absence of environmental stability (i.e., stability of the context in which they are embedded), it is impossible to rely on two things:

I. That incremental changes will produce commensurately incremental effects

II. That the benchmarks against which change can be measured will be preserved

EXAMPLE 1

Instability can occur in many places. One illustration is in the realm of economics where inflationary pressures can change a currency’s value over time. For instance, if the cost of goods and services increases over a ten-year period by a factor of two (e.g., it now costs $200 to purchase the same goods and services that were bought for $100 ten years earlier), there is said to have been 100 percent inflation over that time. But if salaries also doubled over that same period, the purchasing power of individuals at the different times would be the same (not double). If we had not kept track of both the changes in salaries and the relative value of the currency at one time versus another, we would have reached the erroneous conclusion that people’s ability to purchase goods and services had doubled and not remained the same.

Importantly, the rate of inflation (or deflation) can change over time in response to a variety of factors, many of which are not easy to predict. Accordingly, it is crucial to have a benchmark (i.e., some kind of standard) to make fair comparisons of a currency’s purchasing power at different times (in this case, perhaps something along the lines of the Consumer Price Index of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics).

If the quantity of goods and services that an amount of money can buy were to vary wildly and unpredictably, it would be unstable. Furthermore, if the vacillations were large enough, it would make the predictions concerning the future purchasing power of the currency somewhere between precarious and specious. Unfortunately, this situation has occurred many times in the past (e.g., with the currencies of the Confederate States during the US Civil War, currencies worldwide during the Great Depression, the currency of Germany between World Wars I and II, and so on). The conclusion is that meaningful comparisons cannot be made unless there is contextual stability to provide a reliable point of reference, which requires steadiness of the overall environment.

Another example of instability is when something breaks. If an object is put under stress, it will deform under the