Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change

Advance praise for

Plan C

and it's being led by communities that are taking responsibility for their energy futures and food supply while building economies that are fair and sustainable. It's called Plan C and the story is told here by one of the intrepid pioneers in the movement. Read it, send copies to your city council members, roll up your sleeves and join in. It's the only decent future we have."

—David Orr, author of Ecological Literacy and Earth in Mind

This is no sugar-coated vision of how great the world could be if only magical new technologies appear to replace fossil fuels. Pat Murphy understands the scale of the challenge facing us and uses his engineering background to peel away the usual false solutions. What’s left shines with simplicity and common sense: as the oil age fades to memory, we must use less of Earth’s resources and return to traditional virtues. An indispensable book from a wise, compassionate, and practical man.

—Richard Heinberg, author of The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies; Senior Fellow, Post Carbon Institute

Here’s a powerful and persuasive glimpse of the future. You may not agree with every detail and recommendation, but the overriding message is incredibly important: Cheap fossil fuel has made us the first humans with no practical need of our neighbors. That has to change, for reasons ecological but also psychological. The world on the other side of cheap oil may be a little less comfortable than the one we grew up in, but it may also be much sweeter

—Bill McKibben, author of Deep Economy; co-founder 350.org

The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer much faster now than at any time in the past. The world is at peak injustice, and that one point, and its ramifications, make Plan C essential reading.

—Albert Bates, author of

The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

There are many people who tell us that the skies are about to open up and unleash a deluge of environmental crises upon us. But Pat Murphy does more than forecast disaster—he’s right there with you, handing out umbrellas, bringing around the boats and showing us how to get to safe, dry ground. Plan C is a powerful tool for creating a viable future.

—Sharon Astyk, author of Depletion & Abundance:

Life on the New Home Front and A Nation of Farmers;

and publisher/blogger, www.sharonastyk.com

Plan C is a tour de force encyclopedia of sustainability. A highly readable cornucopia of no nonsense facts, insights, and suggestions for action, it is an essential desk reference for every citizen, public official, and business leader concerned with addressing the challenge of peak oil and climate change.

—David C. Korten, author of The Great Turning:

From Empire to Earth Community and When Corporations Rule; and

board chair YES! magazine.

In Plan C, Pat Murphy has not only shown us the life we should lead— he has shown us the life we must lead—if we are to survive on this planet.

—Adam Corson-Finnerty, author of World Citizen: Action for Global Justice

PLAN C

Community Survival

Strategies for Peak Oil

and Climate Change

PLAN C

Community Survival

Strategies for Peak Oil

and Climate Change

Pat Murphy

Cataloging in Publication Data:

A catalog record for this publication is available from the National Library of Canada.

Copyright © 2008 by Eugene R.PatMurphy.

All rights reserved.

Cover design by Diane McIntosh. Images: iStock/Bob Randall.

Printed in Canada. First printing May 2008

Paperback ISBN: 978-0-86571-607-0

Inquiries regarding requests to reprint all or part of Plan C should be addressed to New Society Publishers at the address below.

To order directly from the publishers, please call toll-free (North America) 1-800-567-6772, or order online at www.newsociety.com

Any other inquiries can be directed by mail to:

New Society Publishers

P.O. Box 189, Gabriola Island, BC V0R 1X0, Canada

(250) 247-9737

New Society Publishers’ mission is to publish books that contribute in fundamental ways to building an ecologically sustainable and just society, and to do so with the least possible impact on the environment, in a manner that models this vision. We are committed to doing this not just through education, but through action. This book is one step toward ending global deforestation and climate change. It is printed on Forest Stewardship Council-certified acid-free paper that is 100% post-consumer recycled (100% old growth forest-free), processed chlorine free, and printed with vegetablebased, low-VOC inks, with covers produced using FSC-certified stock. Additionally, New Society purchases carbon offsets based on an annual audit, operating with a carbon-neutral footprint. For further information, or to browse our full list of books and purchase securely, visit our website at: www.newsociety.com

This book is dedicated to Wendell Berry, who provided me with the vision for a sustainable, more agrarian world, and to Noam Chomsky, who gave me the courage to speak out against the injustice of many of our national policies.

Contents

Acknowledgments

Preface

PART I

Chapter 1: Fossil Fuel Depletion and Climate Change

Chapter 2: Peak Oil — Peak Economy

Chapter 3: Peak Oil — Peak Empire

Chapter 4: Peak America — Is Our Time Up?

Chapter 5: Peak Technology and the Private Car

Chapter 6: Peak Technology and Electric Power

Chapter 7: Corporations, Media and Disinformation

PART II

Chapter 8: Plan C — Curtailment and Community

Chapter 9: Post-Peak — Change Starts with Us

Chapter 10: The Energy Impact of Buildings

Chapter 11: The Smart Jitney — Rapid, Realistic Transport

Chapter 12: Food, Feed, Fuel and CO2

Chapter 13: Food, Health and Survival

PART III

Chapter 14: Changing Practices

Chapter 15: Kicking the Media Habit

Chapter 16: Localization

Chapter 17: Reviving and Renewing Community

Conclusion

Endnotes

About the Author

Acknowledgments

THE BEST SYNONYM for community is cooperation. Cooperation always implies sharing, and this book was written within that context. While I wrote this book I was part of many different communities of interest as well as my own community of place — Yellow Springs, Ohio. I want to acknowledge many of the people who helped me, particularly those who have spoken at Community Solutions (CS)’s annual conferences on peak oil and solutions held in Yellow Springs since 2003.

I first acknowledge the many members of the peak oil community with whom I have spent the last several years on a truly astounding journey. Foremost of these are Richard Heinberg, Colin Campbell and Matt Simmons. Richard Heinberg first introduced me to peak oil at lunch in 2001 in Santa Rosa, California. I met Colin and Matt at ASPO Paris in 2003 and have avidly followed the work of all three ever since.

Economics drives our world today, but the neoclassical economic view has led us to disaster. I was fortunate in finding the leaders of a new form of economics including John Ikerd and Michael Shuman who have spoken at CS conferences. Their writings, as well as those of Michael Perelman, Herman Daly and Michael Albert have formed my economic views.

Advocates of simple living who have influenced me include Vicki Robin, Jim Merkel, John de Graaf, David Wann and Marilyn Welker. Vicki spoke at a CS conference, and I have spoken at Simplicity events put on by Marilyn Welker in Columbus, Ohio. Jan Lundberg has been arguing for simplicity for years, and my talks with him have been an inspiration. Julian Darley and Celine Rich of Post Carbon Institute are key contributors to the views reflected in this book. Jan and Julian have both been speakers at CS conferences.

My organization’s long term relationship with the Fellowship for Intentional Community has affected this book. Key contributors in that vein have been Laird Schaub and Harvey Baker. Harvey spoke at our first CS conference on peak oil.

I have been heavily influenced by the co-housing and eco-village movements. Diana Leafe Christian, Patricia Allison, Liz Walker, Peter Bane and Richard Olson have spoken on these topics at CS conferences. Peter has further helped me to understand permaculture, and Richard and Cheyenne Olson have supported me with advice and help in other ways. My visits to Earthaven in North Carolina and Berea Ecovillage (developed by Richard Olson) in Kentucky have been instructive.

When it comes to understanding food, Robert Waldrop and Sharon Astyk (as well as Peter Bane, Editor, Permaculture Activist) have been great teachers. All three have spoken at CS conferences. Robert’s Running on Empty Internet discussion group has contributed greatly to my understanding of a new world coming. Andrew Manieri, founder of a community supported agriculture farm in Yellow Springs, has also contributed to my understanding of food and permaculture.

Yellows Springs has provided me with a wonderful place in which to work, live and experiment. I am grateful to my village council, particularly president Judy Hempfling and vice president Karen Wintrow who chair the community’s Electrical System Task Force (ESTF) of which I am a member. Community Solutions’ board has been most supportive, and I thank trustees Lynn Sontag, Heidi Eastman, Deb Kociszewski, Carol Gasho, Bob Brecha and Saul Greenberg. I particularly thank Bob Brecha for his technical support and the enjoyment of serving with him (and Carol) on the Yellow Springs ESTF. Bob has been a speaker at our conferences on the topic of straw bale houses.

I very much appreciate the work of Affordable Comfort Incorporated, one the nation’s most important organizations in dealing with energy and housing for the poor. I give special thanks to Linda Wigington who is the point person for ACI in developing strategies for deep retrofitting of existing homes. Jeff Christian of the Building Technology Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee introduced me to high performance building. Both Linda and Jeff have spoken on house energy reductions at our conferences.

Thanks to our staff including Jeanna Breza who manages the office and shipping of our film The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil. Bob Bingenheimer has served us for years in our marketing activities and developed many of the graphics in this book. Eric Johnson deserves recognition for his work as editor of our film. John Morgan helped also as an editor of my writings, as a photographer at our conferences and for the film, and most important, as an impressive model for low-energy living.

Special thanks to Roy Eastman, who reminds me that we do have to manage things, balance budgets and get along with people. Roy is also part of the ESTF, an advisor to me on building retrofit technologies and an ex-trustee of Community Solutions.

Larry and Gail Halpern have been working to curtail their energy use since they attended our first Peak Oil Conference. Larry spoke at a recent conference on the steps they took to cut their energy use 50%. They are powerful examples of curtailment practices.

Thanks to Bob Steinbach, one of our conference speakers, who told me that the Smart Jitney idea was not crazy and encouraged me to continue.

Many thanks to my editor Betsy Nuse who did a masterful job in reducing my bulky manuscript to its current form. Her patience and encouragement were important.

Our three trips to Cuba and the making of our film were vital to the concepts in this book. Thanks to Global Exchange and Rachel Bruhnke, my tour guide on our filming trip, as well as to the wonderful Cubans who showed me what is possible. Cuba is a place where community is strong, allowing people to curtail at a rate yet unachieved anywhere else in the world.

The writings of Australian Ted Trainer heavily influenced this book, and he deserves special recognition. David Orr, who spoke at one of our conferences, has influenced me for years.

Special thanks to Megan Quinn Bachman, Outreach Director at Community Solutions, who read every word of this book more than once, made lots of comments and — most importantly — helped keep the organization focused and kept getting out our message while I concentrated on writing.

There is often a person of whom one can say this book would not have been written without his or her help. This honor goes to Faith Morgan, my wife and the president of the board of Community Solutions, who read every word of the book many times and edited many versions. Together with Megan and Jeanna, she kept the organization running efficiently while at the same time growing much of our food. She also planned and directed the first deep gut rehab energy retrofit of one of our buildings, using the German Passive house as the model. Faith was the director of our film on peak oil and Cuba.

There are dozens of other people who could be mentioned — these are the ones I remember most. It is working and living with people like these that make me confident in the power of community to overcome a mere reduction in our material standard of living.

Preface

WE ARE FACING MULTIPLE GRAVE WORLD CRISES — peak oil, climate change, inequity and species extinction to name just a few. When I began this book our situation was very serious — now it is life threatening. The survival of industrial society as we know it today is in doubt. Twenty years of so-called sustainability conversations have led nowhere, and green has degenerated into a marketing term. The time for scientific and technological solutions to problems caused by science and engineering is long past. Survival requires that we begin to see that energy technology is the root cause of many serious world problems. As William Jevons pointed out decades ago, ever more efficient machines designed by scientists and engineers means ever-increasing consumption of fossil fuels and more generation of CO2.

Our problem is cultural, not technical. It is a character issue, not a scientific one. We have never bothered to ask or answer the question What is energy for? We have allowed cheap fossil fuels to change us from citizens into mere consumers. We in the modern world have become addicted to consuming energy. In the past, our spiritual traditions warned us against materialism — an older name for our current addictive consumerism. But contemporary religions seem to concede that humanity’s main purpose is to consume the products of a fossil fuel-based, perpetual-growth economy. As Wendell Berry says:

The churches generally sit and watch and even approve while our society hurries brainlessly on with the industrialization of child-raising, education, medicine, all the pleasures and all the practical arts. And perhaps this is because religion itself is increasingly industrialized: concerned with quantity, growth, fashionable thought and an inane sort of expert piety. From where I’m looking, it seems necessary for Christians to recognize that the industrial economy is not just a part of a quasi-rational system of specializations, granting the needs of the body to the corporations and the needs of the spirit to the churches, but is in fact an opposing religion, assigning to technological progress and the market the same omnipotence, omniscience, unquestionability, even the same beneficence, that the Christian teachings assign to God.¹

Plan C offers an alternative perspective to the ever more frantic technical proposals for continuing our soul destroying and life endangering way of living. This book opens with a few chapters intended to make a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves, a starting point for many 12 step programs. In Part I, I take that moral inventory, describing the morally central core issues of fossil fuel depletion, human-caused climate change and global inequity. I relate peak oil to our economy — a word which, together with free market, defines us principally as self-centered consumers rather than as caring citizens. The growth economy has been based on the principle greed is good, and the results are disastrous. I review the history of imperialism, especially in the West, and the greed and violence it displays towards the planet’s human and non-human inhabitants. I show that US imperialism has its own history of greed, aggression and cruelty, extending within as well as beyond the national borders. The automobile — possibly the most destructive machine ever built, both of the physical world and of human communities — is addressed along with the electricity generating power plant, the fixed counterpoint to the automobile. The automobile and power plant are the key technologies that produce the CO2 that is so dangerously altering the planet’s climate. Finally I summarize the two institutions, the corporation and the media, that deliberately foster the delusion that the pursuit of personal satisfaction will advance the social good, which keeps us in a trance that all will be well.

Part II is solution focused and covers strategies and action plans. Curtailment and community define the underlying philosophy of this book, with curtailment being the action and community the context. Curtailment accepts the facts that we have squandered our children’s birthright, and so must now radically reduce our consumption of fossil fuels. Community is the core aspect of a new set of values and a new consciousness that must replace the consumer driven mentality. Next I define some of the expertise and abilities we need to develop to live in a low energy world. This brings abstract national problems down to the personal level so we can recognize our own culpability for our personal day-to-day choices and habits. It also describes the major areas for individual energy reduction in the household sector — our cars, our homes and our food.

I devote four chapters to the household economy — that part of the GNP under personal direct control. The problems and solutions for buildings, for cars and for our food are described in detail. All of us must in fact regain a set of skills and knowledge which atrophied while we put our trust in corporate producers. These are not tips chapters but rather explanations of what we must know in order to make good decisions and to determine which skills we will need for the new world economy.

In Part III, I discuss the new cultural context that we must create to survive. I emphasize the personal steps we must take, in particular breaking our addiction to machines that use fossil fuels. I discuss the media and emphasize our need to break free from this second addiction, one that allows society to be controlled by powerful corporations. I also cover the current focus on localization — an effort to counter the destructive trend toward globalization. This analysis emphasizes the need to avoid concentrating on government and corporate action, since that might keep us from making far more significant personal changes. Finally I close the book with thoughts on community revival and renewal, as these represent the heart and soul of the post fossil fuel society. I envision a society based on cooperation and care of the planet rather than competition and exploitation of planetary resources. I describe a new world view, with community as the new context for living, and I identify some key elements of community. The most important element, relationships, is the essence of community and, as such, offers a challenge to our current societal celebration of individual material pursuits. The difference between the current culture and this new one are covered in detail, and the core values of the two options are compared.

This is definitely a numbers book. It is focused on analysis and shows by such analysis the tremendous risks we are taking as we attempt to perpetuate, by dubious technological means, the fossil fuel-based society and growth oriented economy. It is also historical. It challenges the authority of our scientific and technological communities and exposes our poor collective record when it comes to managing fossil fuels and CO2 responsibly. And it also challenges Americans’ view of themselves by taking a close look at our violent history. It is my belief that if we cannot penetrate the distortions that obscure our true political and social history and the hype that offers us techno-fixes, then life in the future will be very difficult indeed.

My thesis is that the best of American culture has been seriously degraded since becoming addicted to oil. We used to have fewer material goods but better relationships. The country was less violent. Our citizens sought to avoid entanglement in foreign affairs. The United States had cleaner water, healthier ecosystems, and more caring human relationships. It had neighborhood schools and unlocked doors. It had community in the best sense of that word. Much of this has been lost. We have gained wealth but we are losing our souls. The national soul desperately needs rework. Our best examples of community-focused living, and the sustaining relationships it fosters, show us exactly what to strive for. But the time remaining is limited, and the urgency of engaging ourselves in this work can not be overstated.

PART I

One

Fossil Fuel Depletion and Climate Change

YOU CAN’T FIGHT PROGRESS, you can’t go home again or there is no turning back are statements representing a view that the industrial way of life is inevitable and good. Serious problems are appearing everywhere. People are more and more concerned about peak oil and climate change. The film An Inconvenient Truth¹ together with the latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)² have suddenly raised the question of the survival of the species. Nor is this simply a theory — almost everyone is aware of the changes of climate in their own neighborhood with different rainfall patterns and warmer temperatures. All governments have recognized the harsh realities and are frantically trying to determine strategies. The 2007 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change verified the seriousness of the global situation.³

We at Community Solutions have long been opposed to the world paradigm of continuous economic growth rolling over all resistance.⁴ Rather we are committed to small community in its various forms — small towns, villages, neighborhoods of cities — and work to preserve them as best we can regardless of how many farmers in the developing world are moved into ghettos or how many small farmers in the US are forced to leave their farms and move to factory jobs in industrial cities. We believe small, local communities can be more energy efficient and are preferable to the megalopolises of the globalized free market.

Is dependence on fossil fuel and the resulting industrialization a mistake? Will the effects of fossil fuel depletion and climate change cause us to move to smaller communities with local economies again? Will global warming force true sustainability on the world? It is important for every person to become more than just familiar with these issues. We must begin to make them the highest priorities in our lives. It is necessary that we stop living by burning fossil fuels and generating greenhouse gases.

Peak Oil

Peak oil is the term used to describe the point in time at which oil production reaches its maximum and then begins to decline. After 140 years the world has consumed about half the oil available. In the next 40-50 years all the oil in the earth will have been burned. But long before then the amount of oil available each year will begin to decline.

The concept of peak oil was formulated in the late 1950s by M. King Hubbert, an oil geologist who worked for Shell Oil Company. Hubbert wrote a ground breaking report which measured oil reserves as well as their pattern of depletion. He noted that the world had been searching for, finding and developing oil for more than 75 years and that, based on the data available from these decades of exploration, it was possible to determine how much oil had existed in a given area (such as the lower 48 US states) and to predict when it would be half gone. He further pointed out that at the time an oil reservoir deep in the earth was drawn down to half full, oil production would begin to decline and continue to decline until the reservoir was empty.

At an oil conference in 1956 Hubbert predicted that oil production would peak in the US lower 48 states around 1970.⁵ Oil professionals ridiculed the prediction. However, to everyone’s surprise, oil production in the US lower 48 states did peak in 1970 as Hubbert predicted, and the rate of production has been declining steadily ever since (Fig. 1.1). In the same presentation Hubbert gave a preliminary estimate for world peak production to be the year 2000 — off by only five years if one accepts the increasingly popular view that regular oil production peaked in 2005 (Fig. 1.2). In spite of Hubbert’s accuracy, it was hard for people who believe in a world without limits to take him seriously. Hubbert commented The consumption of energy from fossil fuels is thus seen to be but a ‘pip’ rising sharply from zero to a maximum, and almost as sharply declining, and thus representing but a moment in human history.⁶

1.1: King Hubbert’s Original US Peak Oil Curve (Lower 48 States)

1.2: King Hubbert’s Original World Peak Oil Curve

The oil shocks of the 1970s increased interest in determining a date for world peak oil, and in 1980 The Global 2000 Report to the President of the United States — begun during the Carter administration — was published.⁷ This report included coverage of peak oil. At that time, there were significant differences between official government positions and Hubbert. The US Geological Survey (USGS) argued that Hubbert’s estimate of 175 billion barrels of oil reserves in the US was too low. Vincent McKelvey, the Assistant Chief Geologist of the Department of Interior, supported the USGS estimate of 590 billion barrels. In the discussion on the differing viewpoints, the report summarized a fateful decision.

As a result of this disagreement, the committee’s summary report did not base its recommendation on Hubbert’s projections and did not present the oil depletion issue in a form that made clear the consequences and the course of action that should be taken if Hubbert was correct.⁸

In 1986 six years after the government’s report, the book Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades described in detail the work of King Hubbert and pointed out the relationship between oil consumption and the economy.⁹ This superbly written book became a key resource for publications on peak oil in the early 2000s. Popular belief has it that the marketing campaign for the book was upstaged by the Challenger explosion in the same year. If true, this event along with the efforts of Vincent McKelvey to discredit Hubbert will be key points when the history of peak oil denial is written.

Peak oil resurfaced in Europe in 1997, the year English oil geologist Colin Campbell published The Coming Oil Crisis.¹⁰ Campbell had been a well known oil-hunting geologist for over 30 years. He founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) in 2001. In June 2003 ASPO changed its title from Association for the Study of Peak Oil to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, adding natural gas resources to its areas of analysis. ASPO provides depletion information that is as accurate as possible rather than focusing on politics or activism. Each monthly newsletter contains an analysis of one of the major oil producing countries in the world. ASPO’s oil and gas depletion chart is now known around the energy world.

ASPO has been critical in educating people about the coming peaks in oil and natural gas production. ASPO’s date for the peak of regular oil was 2005. For regular oil plus deep water, heavy oils and natural gas liquids the estimate for peak is 2010 (Fig. 1.3).¹¹ Without the activities of this organization and its subsidiaries in other countries there would be much less general knowledge available to the public. Oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell argue that there is much more oil to be discovered, discounting historical trends by suggesting new technology will find new supplies. The United States Geological Service (USGS) supports this contention and claims that there is much more oil remaining than ASPO estimates. However, oil companies and the USGS have done a poor job of predicting resources in the past and in some cases have deliberately misled the public.

In his book The Hype About Hydrogen, Joseph Romm praised Shell Oil’s technical skills saying The Royal Dutch/ Shell Group [is] probably the most successful predictor in the global oil business.¹² Yet in January 2004, the energy industry was rocked by scandal when Shell, one of the four major public oil companies in the world, lowered their proved reserves. This so called successful predictor not only reduced its proved reserves by 20% but admitted that both its chairman and chief exploration officer had deliberately misrepresented the size of their reserves. Shell paid almost $700 million in fines for this action.¹³ Other oil companies are equally uncaring about the public. In late 2007, British Petroleum paid out $373 million dollars in fines and restitution for oil spills from pipeline breaks, violation of the Clean Air Act in conjunction with a refinery explosion and driving up the price of propane. ¹⁴ In March 2006 the largest independent oil operator, ExxonMobil, ran ads in the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post and the New York Times which claimed that peak oil is decades away, attempting to discredit what it called the theory of peak