Renewable energy targets in 2022: A guide to design

© IRENA 2022

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ISBN: 978-92-9260-480-6

eBook ISBN: 978-92-9260-505-6

Citation: IRENA (2022), Renewable energy targets in 2022: A guide to design, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi.

ABOUT IRENA

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi (Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre) and Ute Collier, and authored by Diala Hawila, Faran Rana, Abdullah Abou Ali and Arslan Khalid (IRENA), Costanza Strinati and Sufyan Diab (former IRENA colleagues), Miquel Muñoz Cabré (Stockholm Environment Institute), David Jacobs (IET Consulting) and Toby Couture (E3 Analytics), with valuable contributions from Adrian Whiteman, Nazik Elhassan, Sonia Rueda Silva, Emanuele Bianco, Jinlei Feng, Imen Gherboudj, and Gerardo Escamilla (IRENA), Paola Pérez (Tufts University) and Michelle Benaderet (Boston University).

Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Aleksandra Prodan, Álvaro López-Peña, Arieta Gonelevu Rakai, Badariah Yosiyana, Binu Parthan, Camilo Ramirez Isaza, Elizabeth Njoki Wanjiru, Ines Jacob, Joong Yeop Lee, José Torón, Kamlesh Dookayka, Kamran Siddiqui, Karanpreet Kaur, Margaret Suh, Nadia Mohammed, Petya Icheva, Paul Komor, Simon Benmarraze, Toyo Kawabata, Wilson Matekenya and Zoheir Hamedi. Valuable external review was provided by Katarina Uherova Hasbani (AESG). The report was edited by Justin French-Brooks. Cover image credits: shutterstock.com and freepic.com.

IRENA is grateful for the generous support for this report provided by the Walloon government.

For further information or to provide feedback: [email protected].

Available for download: www.irena.org/publications.

DISCLAIMER

This publication and the material herein are provided as is. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.

The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.

CONTENTS

FIGURES

TABLES

BOXES

ABBREVIATIONS

SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS

INTRODUCTION

1NDCS AND OTHER COMMITMENTS TOWARDS CLIMATE OBJECTIVES

1.1 Momentum for global climate action and updates on NDCs since COP26

1.2 Net zero targets and commitments

1.3 Fossil fuel phase-out (phase-down) targets

2RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL PLANS

2.1 Trends in renewable energy targets

2.2 Quantification and analysis of renewable energy targets in the power sector

3KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR TARGET SETTING

3.1 Objectives and context for renewable energy target setting

3.2 The statistical basis for renewable energy targets

3.3 The scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses

3.4 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as a share of a mix

3.5 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as an absolute amount

3.6 Technology specificity of targets

3.7 Modalities for target implementation

4CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

ANNEX 1: METHODOLOGY

ANNEX 2: RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL ENERGY PLANS

REFERENCES

FIGURES

Figure S1 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022)

Figure S2 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping

Figure S3 Global cumulative renewable power, installed capacity, historical trends and future projections

Figure S4 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping, and technology

Figure S5 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting

Figure 1.1 CO 2 emission trajectories based on COP26 announcements and the WETO 1.5°C Scenario

Figure 1.2 NDCs by ambition and share of global emissions (as of 16 October 2022)

Figure 1.3 Renewable energy targets in NDCs (as of 16 October 2022)

Figure 1.4 Companies net zero targets by status as of August 2022

Figure 2.1 Role of targets at different stages of policy-making

Figure 2.2 The role of renewable energy in the energy transition

Figure 2.3 Hydrogen strategies, including those in preparation as of June 2022

Figure 2.4 Total electrolyser 2030 targets, globally, as of September 2022

Figure 2.5 Number of cities with renewable energy targets, by region as of the end of 2021

Figure 2.6 Companies with 100% renewable energy targets by sector, as of August 2022

Figure 2.7 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region, country grouping and technology

Figure 2.8 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030, by technology, total target capacity (left) and remaining target capacity (right)

Figure 2.9 Progress made on aggregated targets for 2030, by region, as of 2021

Figure 2.10 Global cumulative installed capacity of renewable power, historical trends and future projections

Figure 2.11 Global renewable power installed capacity in 2021, targeted capacity by 2030 and level needed as per IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario

Figure 2.12 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans, by region and country grouping

Figure 3.1 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting

Figure 3.2 Percentage of population with access to electricity and clean cooking to reach the targets set in SDG7

Figure 3.3 Factors affecting future electricity demand

Figure 3.4 Spectrum of renewable energy targets

Figure 3.5 Evolution of renewable energy targets in the European Union

Figure 3.6 Data needed before the setting of the target, while monitoring the progress and after the achievement of the target

TABLES

Table 1.1 Jurisdictions with net zero pledges, divided into high emitters (G20), low emitters (LDCs and SIDS) and others according to the Net Zero Tracker by October 2022

Table 1.2 Coal-phase out commitments and plans of selected countries

Table 3.1 Decision on the statistical basis of targets

Table 3.2 Decision on the scope of targets – sector coverage and end uses

Table 3.3 Decision on the indicator for share of total energy targets – TPES or TFEC

Table 3.4 Decision on the indicator for share of electricity – generation or installed capacity

Table 3.5 Decision on the indicator for the share of renewables in end-use targets

Table 3.6 Decision on the indicator for power targets - Capacity based vs. output based

Table 3.7 Decision on the indicator for green gas targets – output or capacity/unit based

Table 3.8 Decision on technology specificity of targets

Table 3.9 Indicators for achieving China’s 14 th FYP

Table 3.10 Decision on long-term and short-term targets

Table 3.11 Examples of data collection objectives and data needs

BOXES

Box 1.1 Net zero targets announced by companies as of August 2022

Box 1.2 Six-month progress update on South Africa’s Just Transition Partnership

Box 2.1 The main functions of renewable energy targets

Box 2.2 Ecuador’s targets and policy measures to transition to electric cooking

Box 2.3 IRENA’s Beyond Food initiative: Clean cooking and climate action through electrification

Box 2.4 Renewable energy targets at the company level – the RE100

Box 2.5 The US government’s socio-economic aims for the deployment of renewables

Box 2.6 Methodology for quantifying renewable power targets and assumptions for major renewable energy players

Box 3.1 I ncrease in ambition of renewable energy targets in the European Union REPowerEU

Box 3.2 Potential socio-economic impacts of the energy transition in Africa with a comprehensive policy framework

Box 3.3 IRENA’s work on resource assessment

Box 3.4 The European Union 2020 renewable energy targets

Box 3.5 The United Kingdom’s Net Zero Strategy

Box 3.6 China’s 14 th Five-Year Plan

Box 3.7 Compliance with renewable energy targets and renewable portfolio standards in the European Union, the United States and the Philippines

ABBREVIATIONS

CSP concentrated solar power

ETS emissions trading system

EV electric vehicle

FCV fuel cell vehicle

FIT feed-in tariff

GIS geographic information system

GDP gross domestic product

GHG greenhouse gas

JETS Just Energy Transition Partnership

LCOE levelised cost of electricity

LDC least developed countries

LPG liquefied petroleum gas

MENA Middle East and North Africa

NDC Nationally Determined Contribution

PV photovoltaic

RPS renewable portfolio standards

SDG Sustainable Development Goal

SIDS small island developing states

SWH solar water heater

TFEC total final energy consumption

TPES total primary energy supply

WETO World energy transitions outlook

UNITS OF MEASURE

Gt gigatonne

GW gigawatt

GWh gigawatt hour

kg kilogram

kt kilotonne

kW kilowatt

kWh kilowatt hour

Mtce million tonnes of coal equivalent

MW megawatt