Bashar al-Assad's Last Stand: A Study of the Syrian Conflict's Final 11 Days in December 2024

Bashar al-Assad's Last Stand: A Study of the Syrian Conflict's Final 11 Days in December 2024

By

Dr. Naim Tahir Baig,

Ph.D. Scholar & Researcher

Bashar al-Assad's Last Stand: A Study of the Syrian Conflict's Final 11 Days in December 2024

Dr. Naim Tahir Baig

Self-Published

Copyright © 2024 Dr Naim Tahir Baig

Copyright © 2024 by Dr. Naim Tahir Baig

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without the written permission of the author or publisher, except for brief quotations in printed reviews.

Published by:

Self-Published

First Edition

December 2024

For more information, contact:

Cell No. +923417007400

WhatsApp No. +923417007400

Email Address: [email protected]

To those affected by the Syrian conflict,

who have endured unimaginable suffering and loss.

Your resilience and courage in the face of adversity continue to inspire the world.

Contents

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

Foreword

Preface

Introduction

II. Contents

Central Thesis

Chapter 1

The Precipitating Events

Chapter 2

Introduction to the Initial Days of Conflict

Chapter 3

The Turning Point

Chapter 4

Days 10-11

Introduction to Days 10-11

Chapter 6

Synthesis of Events Over the 11 Days

Chapter 7

Overview of the Immediate Aftermath

III. Back Matter

Epilogue

Chapter 8

Detailed Citations and Sources

Bibliography

Foreword

In the realm of contemporary conflicts, few have captured global attention and concern quite like the Syrian civil war—a multifaceted crisis that has unfolded over the past decade, incorporating threads of political strife, sectarian divisions, and humanitarian catastrophe. As we delve into the pages of Bashar al-Assad's Last Stand: A Study of the Syrian Conflict's Final 11 Days in December 2024, we are presented with a meticulously crafted narrative that not only chronicles the final days of conflict but also exposes the intricacies of power, resistance, and the immense human cost borne by the people of Syria.

Dr. Naim Tahir Baig’s expertise in International Relations shines through in this comprehensive analysis. His academic rigor and commitment to uncovering the truth about the Syrian experience are evident throughout this work. Dr. Baig's dedication to understanding the geopolitical landscape, bolstered by firsthand accounts and a wealth of primary and secondary sources, creates a narrative that is both insightful and thought-provoking. He adeptly navigates the shifting tides of military engagements, political betrayals, and the frailty of human lives caught in an unrelenting storm of violence and despair.

In particular, Dr. Baig captures the urgency of the final eleven days of conflict, where desperation and defiance crystallized among both the regime and opposition forces. Through the lens of these critical events, the reader grasps the seriousness of the humanitarian crisis that unfolded, marked by staggering casualties and the profound struggles of displaced families. This work serves as a reminder of the ethical responsibility we share as global citizens to recognize the humanity behind the statistics and to advocate for peace and justice in the face of tyranny.

Equally important is the reflection on the role of international actors in shaping the conflict’s dynamics. The interplay between military strategies employed by various factions and the complexities of global politics are expertly discussed, revealing how external influences could have far-reaching implications for the regional order and humanitarian efforts going forward. Dr. Baig’s insights compel us to consider the interconnectedness of these elements and to reflect on how future conflict resolution must heed these lessons.

As the Syrian conflict enters its next phase, Dr. Baig’s study becomes increasingly relevant. It not only provides a detailed synopsis of recent events but also raises critical questions about the future of governance in Syria and the long-term implications for its society and the region at large. The narratives presented within this book are a tribute to the resilience of the Syrian people and a call to action for all those committed to supporting peace and rebuilding lives ravaged by war.

In reading this comprehensive analysis, we not only gain a deeper understanding of the Syrian conflict's complexities but are also invited to reflect on our role as advocates for the voiceless. It is my hope that this work inspires discussions, policy changes, and a renewed commitment to ensuring that the lessons learned from Syria guide our efforts to foster global peace and stability.

Dr. Iqbal Roy

Government Murray College, Sialkot, Pakistan

December 2024

Preface

The aim of Bashar al-Assad's Last Stand: A Study of the Syrian Conflict's Final 11 Days in December 2024 is to provide a comprehensive and nuanced analysis of the critical turning point in the Syrian conflict. This book meticulously synthesizes the events that transpired from December 1 to December 11, 2024, focusing on the military strategies, political dynamics, and humanitarian crises that define this tragic chapter in the history of Syria.

The scope of this study encompasses the actions of the Assad regime and the response of opposition forces, particularly detailing the shifts in power, the tightening grip of the regime, and the resilience displayed by those opposing tyranny. By examining these elements, I seek to illuminate not only the human cost of the conflict but also the broader implications for governance and international relations in the region.

One of the significant challenges encountered during the writing of this book was the difficulty of accessing accurate and timely information in the midst of ongoing violence and instability. Many sources were unreliable, and the rapidly changing landscape of the conflict made it difficult to verify claims and counterclaims. To overcome these obstacles, extensive research was conducted, incorporating firsthand accounts, reports from reputable non-governmental organizations, and analyses from credible academic sources.

In addition, interviews with individuals who experienced the conflict firsthand added a vital layer of authenticity to the narrative. This qualitative data, alongside quantitative assessments of conflict statistics, provides a comprehensive understanding of the complexities and realities faced by those affected by the war.

As an author with a background in International Relations, I am acutely aware of how narratives shape policy decisions and public perception. This awareness informs my approach throughout the book, as I aim to present a balanced and engaging account that raises awareness and fosters empathy for the millions of people influenced by this ongoing tragedy.

I welcome readers to approach this work with an open mind, reflecting on the lessons learned from these final days of conflict and considering how they may inform our understanding of peace and justice in Syria and beyond.

Dr. Naim Tahir Baig

Ph.D. International Relations, Pakistan

Phone: +923417007400

WhatsApp: +923417007400

Email: [email protected]

Introduction

Setting the Stage for Syria's Tumultuous Endgame

As we look back at the Syrian conflict leading up to December 2024, we must consider the complex tapestry of events, ideologies, and relationships that have shaped this multifaceted war. The Syrian conflict, beginning in 2011 as part of the broader Arab Spring uprisings, evolved from a series of protests into a brutal civil war, drawing in international powers and leaving a profound humanitarian crisis in its wake. Much like an elaborate chess game, each player's move—from local rebel groups to global superpowers—has significantly impacted the unfolding drama. This introduction will provide a broad overview of the conflict's evolution, leading us to the critical juncture in December 2024.

The Syrian conflict initially ignited when peaceful demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad's regime were met with violent crackdowns, as noted by journalist Patrick Cockburn in The Age of Jihad (2016). What started as calls for democratic reforms quickly spiraled into an armed conflict, as various opposition factions took up arms. Over time, the conflict attracted a multitude of local, regional, and international actors. groups such as ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) emerged, each with its own agendas and foreign backers. This fragmentation of the opposition complicated any diplomatic resolution to the conflict and contributed to the ongoing bloodshed.

Meanwhile, Assad's regime, backed by Russia and Iran, has managed to regain control over significant parts of the country. The support from these allies has been pivotal, not only in terms of military aid but also politically, as explored in The Russian Way of War by Dmitry Adamsky. Russia's military intervention in 2015 marked a turning point, allowing Assad to reclaim lost territories and shift the balance of power in his favor. Iran, seeing Assad as a key ally in its regional strategy, has also been heavily involved, providing military advisors and mobilizing allied militias to bolster Assad's forces.

On the international stage, the United States and its allies have been engaged primarily in the fight against ISIS, with a more limited focus on regime change. Scholars like Fawaz Gerges in ISIS: A History emphasize how the West's priorities shifted once ISIS became a prominent threat, creating a complex dynamic of competing interests. The U.S.-led coalition's support for Kurdish forces against ISIS inadvertently put them at odds with NATO ally Turkey, which views Kurdish groups as a threat to its national security. This created another layer of complexity, as evidenced by various diplomatic tensions and military skirmishes involving Turkish forces.

As the conflict approached its final days in December 2024, several factors set the stage for a dramatic climax. Diplomatically, the UN had repeatedly attempted to broker peace through initiatives like the Geneva Process and Astana Talks, with limited success. These efforts faced numerous obstacles, such as disagreements over Assad's future and the inclusion of various opposition groups in negotiations. Despite these challenges, efforts toward a political resolution continued, with figures like Staffan de Mistura and Geir Pedersen playing crucial roles in facilitating dialogue.

Understanding these intricate dynamics is essential to comprehending the state of the Syrian conflict as it stood on the precipice of a potential resolution in December 2024. As tensions continued to simmer and negotiations remained fraught with challenges, the events leading up to this critical juncture were filled with uncertainty and potential for both breakthrough and breakdown, laying the groundwork for the intense final days that followed.

II. Contents

Central Thesis

The Final 11 Days as a Microcosm of the Larger Syrian Conflict

In examining the final 11 days of the Syrian conflict in December 2024, one can perceive a condensed reflection of the entire war, encapsulating the myriad factors, actors, and stakes that have characterized this prolonged struggle. These last days not only represent a culmination of the ongoing geopolitical chess game but also spotlight the humanitarian, political, and military complexities that have been a constant throughout the conflict. This section aims to delve into how this short yet intense period serves as a microcosm of the larger conflict, bringing into sharp focus the key players and the stakes involved.

To understand this period's significance, consider the variety of forces converging on the battlefield. On one side, Bashar al-Assad's regime, backed by Russia and Iran, stands more resolute than ever, their support having been instrumental in the regime’s survival. The Russian involvement, detailed in Mark Galeotti's Armies of Russia's War in Ukraine (though not specifically about Syria, it offers insights into Russian military strategies), highlights Russia's strategy not just in military terms but also in navigating the international diplomatic arena. Iran's commitment, discussed by Karim Sadjadpour in various reports from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, underscores the deep geopolitical ties and the existential importance the Assad government holds for Tehran's regional policies.

Opposing them, the fragmented factions that once united under a common cause of overthrowing Assad are represented by groups ranging from moderate rebels to hardline Islamists. Their narratives, although varied, reflect the frustration and resilience against what they perceive as tyrannical rule. Charles Lister, in The Syrian Jihad, provides a thorough examination of these rebel groups' evolution, motivations, and the international actors who have sporadically supported them, adding layers to their already complex situation.

Amidst this heavy militarization lies the humanitarian crisis, which cannot be overstated. According to reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, the Syrian landscape has been marred by the immense suffering of civilians caught in the crossfire. This grim reality presents itself starkly in these final days, as towns and cities become critical zones of contest, not just for military gain, but for humanitarian survival. The stakes for these civilians, often narrated in poignant interviews and documentaries like For Sama, highlight an often-overlooked narrative—the day-to-day endurance amidst chaos, an endurance that speaks volumes about the human spirit even in the direst of circumstances.

Politically, these last days saw frantic negotiations and diplomatic movements, reminiscent of past efforts but with a renewed urgency. The backdrop of failed talks and fleeting ceasefires serves as a reminder of the enduring challenges in global diplomacy. Figures like UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen worked tirelessly, drawing from lessons outlined in his previous negotiations, to mediate between staunch adversaries. These attempts, chronicled in real-time by international media, reveal the delicate dance of diplomacy—where every move could either herald a breakthrough or a breakdown, as often analyzed by scholars in works like War and Diplomacy in the 21st Century.

In essence, the final 11 days of the Syrian conflict encapsulate the broader themes that have defined the war since its inception—international intrigue, local resilience, humanitarian plight, and the ceaseless quest for peace. This period, laden with historical weight, serves as an epitome of the Syrian conflict's legacy—a period where past and future collide, revealing the complexities and stakes that have touched millions of lives and altered geopolitical landscapes. This chapter not only recounts these dramatic days but also serves as a reflective window into one of the most significant conflicts of the 21st century.

Chapter 1

The Precipitating Events

The Precipitating Events

To truly understand the dramatic conclusion of the Syrian conflict during its final 11 days in December 2024, one must first explore the key events that set the stage for this intensive period. The interplay of military actions, political maneuvers, and international developments converged, heightening tensions within Syria and around the world. This chapter will dissect these elements in detail, shedding light on how they contributed to the looming crisis and the eventual climax of the war.

As 2024 unfolded, the Syrian government, backed by Russian military support, embarked on a series of significant military operations aimed at regaining territory controlled by various opposition groups. By early December, the most pronounced military offensive was launched in the Idlib region, the last major stronghold of rebel forces. The Assad regime's strategy included airstrikes by Russian forces that intensified significantly, a tactic explained in detailed military analyses by specialists like Dr. Aymen Jawad al-Husseini in his book The Syrian Conflict: A Battlefield Analysis (2023). These airstrikes were aimed at both reducing opposition capabilities and instilling fear among the civilian population to discourage support for rebel fighters.

Reports from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) noted that by late November and into December, at least 200,000 civilians were displaced in these offensive operations, creating a significant humanitarian crisis. Key