Espionage Black Book Four: Open-Source Intelligence Explained

ESPIONAGE BLACK BOOK FOUR:

Open-Source Intelligence Explained

Henry Prunckun

In this series of technical monographs:

Espionage Black Book One: Intelligence Databases Explained

Espionage Black Book Two: Codes and Ciphers Explained

Espionage Black Book Three: Surveillance Explained

Espionage Black Book Four: Open-Source Intelligence Explained

Espionage Black Book Five: Basic Intelligence Explained

Espionage Black Book Six: Spy Tradecraft for Citizens Explained

Espionage Black Book Seven: Spy Radio Explained

Espionage Black Book Eight: Industrial Espionage Explained

Espionage Black Book Nine: Secret Police Explained

Espionage Black Book Ten: Foundations of Intelligence Explained

Espionage Black Book Four:

Open-Source Intelligence Explained

Copyright © 2025 by Henry Prunckun

This book is copyright.

Except in the case of study, research, or review,

no portion of this book may be reproduced by any means

without the prior written permission of the author.

EPUB Version ISBN 978-0-9580178-7-9

Bibliologica Press

P.O. Box 656

Unley, South Australia, 5061

Australia

CONTENTS

Open-Source Intelligence

Taxonomy of Intelligence Sources

Intelligence Community

Informing Investigations

Collection

Validating Sources

Analysis

Reports

Ethical Considerations

About the Author

— CHAPTER ONE —

OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

_______________________________________

I

f intelligence is information that has been evaluated, then open-source intelligence (OSINT) is information from open sources that have been evaluated. The evaluation process involves a cyclical procedure that starts with defining the research question or making a statement to guide the inquiry.  Arguably, this is the most critical aspect of secret research because without compass bearing, an investigation can drift off course.  Without proper orientation, decision-makers will not receive the advice they need.

The next step is to identify the information that can answer the question.  Because intelligence research is conducted in secret, we might think that only secret information is used.  Yet, there is no truth to this thought.  The world is awash with data.  It is all around us, and any piece of data in the public domain is free to gather.

What makes intelligence research different to other forms of research, is that some aspect of the process is secret.  This could be the source, the way the data were collected, the analysis method, the weighting given to the conclusions, or the final report.

As an example, take the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates (NIE). ¹ These reports are the product of the U.S. intelligence community’s collective long-term thinking on a particular issue.  Although classified, these reports are, from time to time, released to the public.  But before they are, the aspects of them that make them secret are removed.

Once collected, the evaluation process begins.  Each data item needs to be assessed as to its accuracy and reliability.  This is done the same way that a scholar evaluates information used in an academic study. ²  As a guide, intelligence analysts use the so-called Admiralty Code or NATO System. These systems are based on the Admiralty Grading System developed during World War II for tactical military purposes.  At the time, the intention was to assign some level of certainty to information used in combat intelligence reports. It was an effective system and continued.  We will be revisited in Chapter Six when we discuss validating information sources.

The analytic stage of the process is the part where the raw data is assessed, transforming it into intelligence.  In Chapter Seven, we look at how this is done.

Once analyzed, the findings are compiled into report form and circulated to those with need-to-know or a right-to-know. ³ In intelligence terminology, this is called dissemination to intelligence consumers.

These steps are called the intelligence cycle. Although practitioners and scholars talk about this cycle in slightly different terms, the underlining steps that move an analyst’s thinking from question to answer are the same.  Figure 1 shows one such view.

Figure 1—A typical view of the intelligence cycle.

HISTORY OF OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

Arguably, open-source information was not the fountain of intelligence of early militaries, and hence political planning.  Sun Tzu wrote, Knowledge of the enemy’s dispositions can only be obtained from other men.⁴ The Bible cites gathering information by deploying spies.⁵ This is understandable because the sources of information were limited to what a person could collect by the five senses.

The coming of age of open-source information can be attributed to the Second World War when William Wild Bill Donovan posited that intelligence is neither mysterious nor sinister.⁶ Agents of the Office of Strategic Services could obtain more helpful information in a few minutes spent with a freight train brakeman than Mata-Hari could in an entire evening.⁷

A case often cited as the quintessential instance of the start of open-source intelligence involved what was then the U.S. Foreign Broadcast Information Service.⁸  The FBIS was created in 1941 to collect information that supported combat operations.⁹

The often-cited example centers on Allied forces’ need to know how effective