Leading through chaos – what the early days of the Internet can teach us about AI and decision-making in 2025

In the summer of 1995, I sat in my small office at Lysaker, sipping vending-machine coffee from a paper cup, with a roll-your-own Petterøes 3 smouldering in the ashtray. I often worked late and alone, with a growing sense that something big was beginning to unfold. The internet — this new, graphical interface — seemed more than a curiosity. It smelled like the future.

Now — nearly 30 years later — I sit in a different chair, in a different time, but with the same feeling. (The cigarettes are long gone, and the coffee is considerably better.) Technological turbulence. Uncertainty. Opportunity and risk, side by side. This time, it’s artificial intelligence pushing us out of our comfort zone. And, just like back then, it’s easy to lose our bearings.

When everything is in motion – what should we look for?

In periods of high technological churn — where developments come faster than we can adapt — leadership becomes especially challenging. The temptation is to chase after the latest, the loudest, the most hyped. Product launches, apps, plugins, LLMs, APIs, disruptive x and generative y. It’s all happening at once, and it’s impossible to keep up with it all.

But if, as leaders, we try to understand everything, we end up stuck on the surface. We risk acting too late — or acting on the wrong premise.

What we must look for instead are patterns.

The Internet in 1995 – lessons from uncertainty

When we launched Gjensidige’s first web-based solution in the spring of 1996, it wasn’t because it was obvious the internet would become a success. Quite the opposite — many were deeply sceptical. There were politicians who wanted to ban the internet. Regulation was scarce, expert insight was limited, and no one really knew what the web was going to become.

But we observed a few things:

• An explosion in usage — especially in information and communication.
• Steady growth in online shopping, classifieds, and ad platforms.
• A particular type of person speaking about it — enthusiastic, curious, grounded in insight — and rarely speaking in absolutes.

These were the signals rising above the noise. These were the patterns we could navigate by.

AI today – same turbulence, similar signals?

AI today mirrors many of those same dynamics:

• The technology is not new, but it has reached a point of widespread utility.
• It’s quietly seeping into every sector, reshaping processes, decisions, and business models.
• New products and services appear weekly — often daily.
• And opinions are sharply divided: some celebrate, others warn, and a few wish it would all just stop.

This creates a tough reality for today’s leaders. What do we do when the experts disagree, and the map keeps changing faster than the terrain?

Leadership at pace – listening smarter

We must learn to choose who we listen to. There are many voices in the tech conversation. Some sound impressive but offer mostly hype and polished narratives. Others are quieter, but speak from experience, integrity, and genuine curiosity.

The voices worth listening to tend to have a few things in common:

• They rarely claim to have all the answers.
• They combine optimism with depth.
• They point to direction, not just trends.
• They place innovation in its broader context.

At the same time, we as leaders must construct our own scenarios. We need to identify what is truly happening — not just noise, but sustained development. Look for:

• Technologies that endure, not just those trending.
• Use cases that scale broadly, not just niche applications.
• Shifts in behaviour and societal patterns, not just startup momentum.

Finding patterns in the noise

Today, just as in 1995, there are a thousand paths forward — and just as many reasons to hesitate. But if you, as a leader, raise your gaze and focus on what remains consistent, you’ll find a compass amid the chaos.

It’s not about understanding all the technologies. It’s about understanding the direction.

What patterns are you seeing — and which are you choosing to follow?

Whose voices are you listening to — and why them?

Are you acting out of conviction, or out of fear of falling behind?

Technology alone doesn’t shape the future. The decisions we make — based on what we choose to see — do.