Climate Impact Analysis

Is climate change worsening wildfire risk? According to NASA research, the answer is unequivocally yes. --- As fossil fuel emissions accumulate in Earth’s atmosphere, more of the sun’s energy is being trapped inside, warming our planet faster than any time in the past 485 million years. 2024 was the hottest year in modern records, and these higher temperatures pull more moisture out the soil and create drier conditions that are extending fire seasons around the globe. More energy in the atmosphere also means more extreme weather, like the 100-mph Santa Ana winds that buffeted Los Angeles earlier this month. Coupled with an extraordinarily dry winter, the resulting firestorm caused more than $250 billion in economic losses and destroyed more than 12,000 structures, including the homes of more than 200 of my colleagues at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory — many of whom have dedicated their professional lives to readying the world for climate impacts. --- A new NASA explainer, Wildfires and Climate Change, reveals how a warming world is radically altering humanity’s relationship with wildfire. Over the last few decades: - Extreme wildfire activity has more than doubled worldwide; - Fire seasons in parts of the United States, Mexico, Brazil, and East Africa have grown by more than a month; - Earlier snowmelt, warmer nighttime temperatures, and decreasing summer rainfall have supercharged fire conditions across the planet; and - U.S. wildfires have steadily grown larger, burning wider areas of land. Many factors, of course, contribute to wildfire risk, but climate change is undeniably accelerating this risk for communities around the globe. View the full page here: https://lnkd.in/g9h3hCRi --- For more perspectives on LA’s historic fires, see powerful stories by some of my colleagues, and consider donating to the JPL Disaster Relief Fund: https://lnkd.in/gah5Sycw Benjamin Hamlington https://lnkd.in/gNU8c9xj Peter Kalmus https://lnkd.in/gDMDpN4f Whitney Haggins https://lnkd.in/gHYU576i Laurie Leshin https://lnkd.in/g9eSAZgS . . . . #LAFires #NASA #JPL #climatechange #wildfires

👋 To all working on climate and/or urban planning: is urban design in your city's climate plan? Is decarbonization in your urban design strategy? If not, what do we need to change about how we're doing this? Last month at NYC Climate Week, Gehl - Making Cities for People and RMI debuted a piece of thinking that I'm keen to get feedback on from people in climate and urbanism. It addresses what we see as an obvious gap in the decarbonization discussion: how the shape of the city itself changes demand for energy and can be used as a powerful lever to reduce emissions. While there's much vital discussion at COP and Climate Week about supply-side energy transition, we argue that a different urban planning paradigm would make this transition *much* easier by deeply reducing demand through more efficient and effective urban form. This paradigm would allow us to reduce the need to manufacture 2x Europe’s worth of EVs, 3-4 America’s worth of solar farms, 2 Japan’s worth of wind turbines. (And so many fewer battles with infrastrcutre siting, permitting, NIMBYism, lawyers, bankers...) I know this is preaching to the choir among folks who are already advocating for compact, mixed-use, transit-oriented cities. But we suspect there are many in infrastructure finance, global development, and the general climate conversation, who could add this lever to their arsenal. Some highlights from the research: 🏙 Per capita emissions in compact, mixed-use, multi-modal cities are typically 2-3x lower than the countries in which those cities are located - regardless of whether the countries’ average per capita emissions are low or high 🚲 After controlling for wealth, urban form is the factor most responsible for the difference between per capita emissions at a country level (even more than the grid mix or nature of the economy). Countries with more compact, mixed, multi-modal cities and neighborhoods vs. countries with lower density, dispersed, car-dependent cities. 🌏 Overall, patterns of urban development are heading in the wrong direction; urban land area growing 67 percent faster than urban populations (though there are some recent glimmers of hope from the largest cities) 🌲 Business-as-usual patterns of development threaten 5-8% of remaining global carbon sinks. 🥑 Sprawl drives food waste; more infrequent bulk shopping vs. buying what you need when you need it from the neighborhood grocery. Household food waste has a strong inverse correlation to population density. 🍎 Health, equity, and economic development co-benefits come along at every stage of this paradigm shift. Thanks to our great collaborators and speakers who helped put together this research and #ClimateWeekNYC discussion including Rushad Nanavatty, Julia Meisel, Brett Merriam, Wallace Cotton, Benjamin Holland, Yuki Numata, Marissa Maze, Jackie Lombardi, Rafael Marengoni, Zack Subin, Anna Zetkulic, Robin Chase, Majora Carter and Felipe Ramírez Buitrago.

Forests 🌳: More than carbon The destruction of tropical forests is often framed as a carbon issue, but it has more immediate consequences for people living nearby. One of the most tangible effects is local temperature. Deforestation in Borneo, for instance, has left the island significantly hotter & drier, with severe consequences for both the environment and local communities. A piece by Jeremy Hance (https://mongabay.cc/DIwQ50) provides valuable background on this issue, drawing on a study from Environmental Research Letters that found deforested areas in Borneo are, on average, 1.7°C warmer than those with intact forests. In oil palm plantations, the difference is even starker, with temperatures 2.8-6.5°C higher than in primary forests. "Sit under a forest or in a big clearing on a sunny day and you will feel the difference. Forests are cool and clearings are hot," Douglas Sheil, a co-author of the study, told Hance. “Trees act as sun-shades protecting those beneath from the direct heat of the sun — like a parasol.” Sheil and his colleagues found that areas losing 40-75% of their forest cover “experienced extreme temperatures above 31 degrees Celsius with greater frequency than other forested regions.” This is significant because the combination of heat & humidity can limit local people’s ability to work outdoors when they otherwise would be productive. As Hance writes: “When Erik Meijaard, co-author and research scientist with Borneo Futures, interviewed 7,000 people in Borneo about how deforestation was impacting their well-being, he found ‘The common answer was that deforestation makes their world so much hotter.’” Forests also moderate temperature by converting solar energy into water vapor through evaporation. This vapor helps form clouds, which provide shade and reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the planet. Forest loss disrupts this balance, altering local rainfall patterns. The study found that rainfall in Borneo has decreased by about 20% over the past six decades. With less precipitation and higher temperatures, conditions have become harsher for farmers, many of whom now struggle to grow crops in the escalating heat. Shifting weather patterns also increase the likelihood of fires, such as those in 2015, which burned 2.1 million hectares & caused widespread health and economic damage. The implications for the region’s most controversial export, palm oil, are concerning. "Oil palm is most productive if humidity is maintained year-round," says Sheil. As conditions become hotter and drier, yields may drop, potentially prompting further plantation expansion, exacerbating the cycle of destruction. Borneo's story serves as a cautionary tale for other tropical regions. As Sheil notes, "If Borneo is considered a microcosm for the effects of forest loss, I would expect the impacts to be markedly greater in the interior of the Congo and Amazon regions." The long-term consequences of forest loss will stretch far beyond Borneo.

Emerging from the water after my dive off the Aran Islands today, I couldn't shake the feeling: Jaysus, that was warm. Not your typical "Ah, lovely day for a dip" warm, but an unnatural, "should I be worried?" kind of warm. The sea was a staggering 18°C. Normally, you'd expect around 12.5 to 16°C this time of year. The culprit? A marine heatwave. Sounds lovely, doesn't it? Like a tropical holiday. But here’s the straight talk - it's not. Here's the reality. When our sea temperatures rise, it's a kick in the teeth for our marine life. Creatures like shellfish, which are central to our local economies and cuisines, can't handle the heat. Neither can the tiny plankton that form the base of the food chain. When these heatwaves hit, our fish get a dose of wanderlust. They start heading towards cooler waters near the poles, leaving traditional fishing grounds empty. Imagine, Aran Islands without the traditional catch. It's like Dublin without the pint of Guinness - unthinkable! And it doesn't stop there. Warm waters can supercharge our weather systems. Ever wonder why our storms seem to be getting fiercer? There's your answer. In the picture attached, you'll see me stepping out of the water, sunglasses on, looking like I just enjoyed a day at the beach. But, the reality is, these aren't the beach days I remember. This isn't the Ireland I know. What this picture doesn't show is we tried get out for a dive on inis meain but 3m swell because of the wind stopped us. We need to take climate change seriously. It’s not just polar bears and ice caps - it's right here, right now, and it's changing the Ireland we know and love. We've got to fight to keep our green, lovely land (and seas!) from going under. Let’s get talking and start taking action, because a sunburnt, warm ocean Ireland is not the one we want. #ClimateChange #AranIslands #MarineHeatwave #IrishSeas

Have you ever considered how your lunch might be shaping the planet? The last time you sat down to eat, were you thinking about the daily special or whether you’d save room for dessert? Maybe you were deciding between chicken or beef. But did the thought of your meal’s ecological footprint cross your mind? It’s surprising to realize that our food choices have one of the biggest impacts on the environment—affecting everything from landscapes to water resources and even the climate. Let’s put it in perspective. Agriculture covers about 40% of the Earth’s land, uses up 70% of our freshwater, and produces 25% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. The reasons behind this are many: Deforestation for farmland, methane from cattle, and excess fertilizer usage. And while agriculture itself is a significant driver of environmental change, animal farming plays an outsized role. Roughly 75% of agricultural land is devoted to raising animals or growing feed for them. Our diets especially those that are heavy in animal products—are directly linked to resource depletion and climate change. For example, did you know that the water footprint of a single hamburger is nearly four times larger than that of a chicken burger? And a veggie burger? It has an even smaller environmental footprint. So, what’s the solution? You don’t need to completely give up meat. Small shifts, like swapping red meat for white meat or trying a plant-based meal once a week, can make a significant difference. Consider adding a “Meatless Monday” to your routine or exploring plant-based dishes at your next catered event. Food is deeply personal and tied to culture and memories. so I know firsthand that dietary changes take time and patience. But every small step helps. What’s one thing you can do today to reduce the environmental impact of your diet, at home or work? #Sustainability #SustainableLiving #GreenhouseGases #MeatlessMonday #EnvironmentalImpact #ClimateChange #CircularEconomy #FutureOfFood

Important new paper – Climate extremes, food price spikes, and their wider societal risks Maximilian Kotz Markus Donat Tom Lancaster Miles Parker Pete Smith Anna Taylor Sylvia Vetter “2024 was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 ◦C above preindustrial #climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth’s surface. Among the widespread impacts of exceptional #heat, rising #food prices are beginning to play a prominent role in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of #climatechange experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices,as impacts on agricultural production translate into supply shortages and food price #inflation. These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term price spikes in response to #extremeheat. In this perspective, we document numerous examples from recent years in which food prices of specific goods spiked in response to #heat, #drought and heavy precipitation extremes. By evaluating the extremity of the associated climate conditions, we thereby build a global and climatological context for this phenomenon. We further review the knock-on societal #risks which these effects may bring with the ongoing intensification of extremes under climate change. These range from increasing economic #inequality and the burden on #health systems, as well as destabilising monetary and political systems. We discuss challenges and priorities for research and #policy to address these risks.” Maximilian Kotz et al 2025 Environ. Res. Lett. 20 081001. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ade45f Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eC4-B7pz

🌍 Deserts and Bare Ground Are True Engines of Climate Chaos. We Need to Understand Why. Bare ground is not neutral. It’s a heat amplifier. It drives feedback loops that intensify droughts, floods, fires, and extreme weather. A few months back I shared remarkable research from M.M. Laguë, G.R. Quetin, and W.R. Boos that modeled this in detail. Their work is both simple and devastating: they compared a “SwampLand” world (lush, wet, vegetated) to a “DesertLand” world (dry, barren, bare). ✅ When evaporation from land is reduced—like in deserts, clear-cut areas, overgrazed fields, or tilled soil, the land loses its ability to cool itself. ✅ Fewer clouds form, allowing more sunlight to hit and heat the ground. ✅ That bare, dry ground heats up intensely, releasing that energy back into the atmosphere. ✅ Water vapor in the atmosphere increases, not in the form of cooling clouds, but as invisible vapor that traps even more heat. ✅ The residence time of water vapor in the atmosphere increases, meaning it hangs around longer, magnifying warming. Bare ground turns water into an invisible, heat-trapping force instead of allowing it to cycle visibly and productively through clouds, rain, and living systems. 🌱 Vegetation Changes Everything. Plants are water cycle managers. They make water visible and productive in ways bare ground cannot: 🍃Transpiration: Plants release water vapor that cools the air, just like sweating cools our bodies. ☁️Cloud Formation: That vapor condenses into clouds, reflecting sunlight and triggering rain. 🌬️The Biotic Pump: Forests actively pull moist ocean air inland, sustaining rainfall deep into continents. 🧬Bioaerosols: Plants emit microscopic particles, pollen, bacteria, spores act as cloud seeds, enabling water vapor to condense and rain to fall. 🫚Soil Stabilization and Infiltration: Roots hold soil, prevent erosion, and allow rain to soak in rather than run off, storing moisture for dry times. All of this turns heat-trapping, invisible water vapor back into visible, life-giving forms that cool the planet and sustain ecosystems. When we strip the land bare we break this system. We lose the clouds, rain, and cooling. Restoring vegetation cover is essential climate management. ✅ Reforestation and afforestation ✅ Cover cropping and no-till farming ✅ Managed, holistic grazing ✅ Agroforestry and silvopasture ✅ Wetland restoration ✅ Urban greening and tree planting These are the most practical, affordable, scalable solutions for restoring the water cycle, reducing extreme weather, and keeping our planet habitable. #ClimateAction #RegenerativeAgriculture #WaterCycle #BioticPump #Bioaerosols #EcosystemRestoration #Sustainability #Agroecology #Desertification #CoverCrops #Reforestation #LandManagement

I'm pleased to share my most recent Forbes article focusing on how cities around the world are dealing with climate risks. Many thanks to Robert Blake, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia and Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates and Faris Saeed of Diamond Developers and the SEE Institute for providing their time and insights for the article as well as Vikram Nehru and Hadeel Ahmad for their guidance and support here. Here is the TLDR: 1) For centuries, urban centers have been magnets for people, capital, and innovation. Now, they are on the frontlines of climate adaptation, resilience building and migration, and will be forced to rethink everything from their infrastructure to the fundamentals of urban life. 2) Case study 1: Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital, home to over 10 million people, is sinking. Rising sea levels and extensive groundwater extraction has made Jakarta one of the fastest-sinking megacities in the world. Up to 40% of the city can be underwater during the rainy season, and the problem is worsening. Indonesia has embarked on one of the most ambitious urban projects in modern history: relocating its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, a new city being built on the island of Borneo. 3) Case study 2: In parallel, beyond basic upgrades, we will also likely need to build entirely new cities. Dubai’s Sustainable City, built by entrepreneur and developer Faris Saeed and his company Diamond Developers, offers a proactive model for building climate resilience from the ground up. Saeed’s Sustainable City is a living laboratory for urban sustainability in the desert environment of the United Arab Emirates. 4) And there are many unique cases beyond the UAE and Indonesia. For example, Kiribati, the Pacific Island Nation has enacted the “Migration with Dignity” project wherein it has purchased land in Fiji to potentially relocate its population as sea levels rise. In the EU coastal cities like Rotterdam and Venice have used a range of technologies and infrastructure projects to combat flooding, with the MOSE project one of the more notable attempts globally to use a system of mobile flood barriers to safeguard the city of Venice. In parallel, the Netherlands is also experimenting with floating homes - most notably IJburg. 5) This is about more than deploying solar panels or electric buses; it’s about redesigning the very DNA of urban life. As climate risks mount, the world’s urban centers must become laboratories for resilience, sustainability, and inclusive prosperity. The future of cities—and the people who call them home—depends on it.

Climate risk isn’t just an environmental issue. It’s reshaping the financial landscape for real estate. With insurance premiums soaring in states like Florida ($5,003 annually in Miami) and Louisiana ($3,983 annually in New Orleans), multifamily investors are facing new challenges that demand smarter strategies. What Investors Need to Know 🌍 Climate Risk = Higher Costs: Insurance premiums are spiking in areas prone to flooding and severe weather. These "climate abandonment areas" are seeing rising operational expenses, impacting profitability. 🏠 Value vs. Risk: Cities like Detroit may have lower home values but still face high insurance costs due to aging infrastructure and localized risks. This trend adds complexity to underwriting multifamily deals. 📍 Location is Everything: High-risk areas may struggle to retain tenants as rising costs push families to relocate. Multifamily investors should carefully weigh potential rental demand against long-term risks. Investor Takeaways Mitigate Risk with Diversification: Avoid concentrating assets in high-risk areas; diversify portfolios across stable, low-risk regions. Focus on Resilient Design: Invest in flood-proof and climate-resilient construction to reduce insurance costs and future-proof properties. Leverage Data: Use climate and insurance analytics to identify regions with growth potential and manageable risks. With 2.9 million census blocks impacted by flood risk alone, the pressure is on multifamily investors to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. How will your portfolio weather the storm? #RealEstate #MultifamilyInvesting #ClimateRisk #InsuranceCosts #ResilientHousing

The Overlooked Connection Between Climate and Health When most people think about the relationship between climate and health, they picture two scenarios: natural disasters like hurricanes or wildfires, or asthma triggered by air pollution. But the impact is far broader and often hidden in plain sight. Climate change is reshaping the health landscape in ways many of us don’t consider: 🍎 Changing weather patterns are affecting food supply, leading to malnutrition and higher rates of diet-related diseases. 🤧 Warmer temperatures and higher CO2 levels are extending pollen seasons, intensifying allergies and respiratory conditions. 🧠 Climate-related stressors like heatwaves, displacement, and food insecurity are contributing to rising rates of anxiety, depression, and PTSD. 🥵 Prolonged heat exposure, especially for outdoor workers, is increasing the risk of chronic kidney disease. 🍚 Elevated CO2 levels are reducing the nutritional value of staple crops like wheat and rice, affecting global nutrition. 🦟 Warmer climates are expanding the range of mosquitoes and ticks, leading to more cases of diseases like malaria, Zika virus, and Lyme disease. This isn’t just a future issue—it’s happening now. Yet, many people still don’t connect the dots between a warming planet and their own health. As healthcare professionals, policymakers, and advocates, we need to shift the conversation. This isn’t only about protecting the environment; it’s about protecting lives. The solutions we implement to combat climate change—clean energy, improved air quality, sustainable agriculture—can directly improve health outcomes. What are some ways you think we can better communicate the health impacts of climate change? How do we move the discussion beyond disasters and asthma to include the full scope of risks—and solutions? Let’s keep this critical conversation going. #ClimateAndHealth #PublicHealth #Sustainability #neef National Environmental Education Foundation (NEEF)