2012 NFL Season 2nd half: This 2012 season in the NFL has been one of the most

wide open in recent memory, particularly in the AFC. Going back the last few seasons there are always obvious front runners (2011 Packers, 2010 Patriots and Falcons, 2009 Saints and Colts) but so far this season has been different, it seems like every week there is a new team that the pundits are raving about and picking to go all the way. Even the 8-0 Falcons are not the clear cut favorites despite not having lost a single game this year. Looking at this NFL season there is one thing I think that is for sure, the NFC is a lot better than the AFC this particular year. The Giants, Falcons, Packers, 49ers, and the Bears are all playing great football right now. The AFC on the other hand is a different picture, after the 7-1 Texans it is extremely wide open, there really is not true #2 team at the moment, instead there are a lot of potential contenders lurking, like the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, and the Broncos. The difference between the AFC and NFC is the 5 teams that I have mentioned from the NFC are a combined 33-9; the 5 teams in the AFC are a combined 28-12. Looking at the AFC, the main reason why I am extremely hesitant to crown the Texans champs is because of quarterbacks. Matt Schaub is a great quarterback no denying that, but he has never won the big game, in fact he has never even won a playoff game. You then look at the QBs chasing him (aside from Joe Fluko, eh excuse me Flacco) there is Peyton Manning (2 SB appearances) Ben Roethlisberger (3 SB appearances) and then Tom Brady (5 SB appearances). When it comes down to the playoffs the team with the best quarterback usually wins, just look at the last 9 AFC champions they all have HOF worthy candidates at QB. Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning, have all been there and know what to do when they get there. Matt Schaub may do it this year and take them all the way, they certainly have the talent, but he has yet to prove it, so until he does I would go with Brady, Manning or Big Ben. The NFC is a little different, sure there are still the SB worthy QBs there, but the overall teams are so much more talented than the AFC. The Giants have Eli and a defensive pass rush that is as good as any in football, the 49ers have a great running game and arguably the best overall defense in the league, the Bears defense is a takeaway machine and the Packers, well have Aaron Rodgers. The Falcons are similar to the Texans in my view, Matty Ice is a great QB but has yet to prove it in the postseason, to add on top of it there defense is suspect. Every team in the AFC and NFC all have questions, which makes this year so different and interesting. Problems with the AFC teams include, question at QB for the Texans, suspect defense and inconsistent QB play for the Ravens, horrible secondary for the Patriots, to much reliance on Peyton for the Broncos, and Age on defense for the Steelers. Now, to be fair question at QB for the Texans probably isnt the best wording, but as I said before who really knows what Matt Schaub will do in the postseason. With all the injuries the Ravens have dealt with I really have written them off in terms of Super Bowl, and the Steelers inability to stop Brady over the course of his career may come back to bite them in January. The Broncos are interesting to me, Peyton appears to be playing better than ever, and the defense has really taken a big step up since last year, but I think in December, and January you have to be able to run the football, and the Broncos just dont do that enough. So to me it comes down to the Texans and the Patriots, granted

I am extremely biased towards the Patriots but I truly believe it comes down to these two teams. The Monday Night matchup down in New England on December 10th could ultimately decide who advances to the Super Bowl if they indeed meet in the championship game, because we all know Brady rarely loses at home, and the Texans are pretty tough in that dome of theirs. So looking at these two teams the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of the Texans is defense, and the first thing that comes to mind when thinking of the Patriots is offense. The Patriots always have good offense but this year it is different, it is still a great offense (ranked #1 in points and yards) but this year it is a balanced offense. In previous years how you stop them is simple, pressure Brady with four and play tight man coverage on the receivers. This year however, if you try and do that, Brady will be perfectly happy with giving the ball to Steven Ridley and racking up the yardage. Then, if the defense decides to adjust and gear more towards the run, Brady can pick them apart with mismatches with Gronk and Hernandez, and he of course has his security blanket in Wes Welker. Defensively, they are much improved in the front seven, and extremely stout against the run, they are actually ranked 2nd in the NFL with giving up just 3.5 yards per carry. The secondary is a different story, they are very inconsistent, they have a lot of young players, and the way they give up deep passes is really pathetic. They acquired the talented but troubled Aquib Talib at the trading deadline from the Bucs, and we will see if he can make a difference. For now, the obvious weakness for the Pats is that secondary. The Texans main strength is defense, and I agree they are an elite defense, but something that a lot of people may not see is that their secondary cannot cover that well outside of Jonathan Joseph. Now, their front 7 is truly a beast of a front seven, from J.J. Watt to Connor Barwin to the new rookie (and best name in football) Whitney Mercilus. They stuff the run, get after the passer, bat down passes, basically anything you want a front seven to do, they can do it. Offensively their offense is predicated on pounding the ball to Arian Foster and Ben Tate, and then to get Matt Schaub out on the play action to hit his receiver and tight ends deep. Arian Foster is probably the best back in football, he is fast, has good vision can break tackles and holds onto the football. Ben Tate is basically a little worse version of him, which is not that bad at all. Matt Schaub also has some good weapons to catch the football starting with Andre Johnson a top 5 receiver in football, Owen Daniels is a very underrated tight end, and Arian Foster is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. If this matchup were to happen, the outcome to me, would hinge on one thing and one thing only; the ability for the Texans to get to Brady, and the ability of the Pats offensive line to hold them off. If Brady has time to throw, I think he has mismatches in the secondary to take advantage of, if he does not have time to throw, it could get ugly and he may get more acquainted with J.J. Watt than he ever wanted too. The Patriots offensive line has done a great job this season giving Brady time, this would be a huge test for them, but the player that I think will ultimately swing this battle of the lines is Steven Ridley. With the Patriots newfound running game, that will help keep the Texans off balance and give Brady extra time to throw the football. The Patriots have not had a running game like this since Correy Dillon in 2004, and it would pay HUGE dividends for them in this game. I know the Patriots secondary flat out stinks, but the Texans are not a spread it out team that could exploit it like other teams could. It is really hard to

pound the ball straight into Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes, and that is what the Texans offense is predicated on. If the Pats get out to an early lead, I am not sure if Matt Schaub could direct the type of offense to catch up to Brady. To sum it up, I expect the Patriots to beat the Texans in the AFC championship game to advance to their 7th Super Bowl. The NFC teams have problems themselves, though maybe not as big as the AFC teams have. The 49ers have Alex Smith, and he is not a very good QB, a great game manager though, the Giants are the Giants which means they are inconsistent and tend to just not show up in certain games in the regular season. The Bears are arguably the most rounded team of them all, they have a great D, great running game, good passing game but I think their problems are their offensive line, and Jay Cutler and his decision making. The Packers have a bad defense, a spotty offensive line, and no running game, and the Falcons have yet to prove it in the postseason. Having said all of that I think in January it is going to come down to the 49ers and the Giants. The Packers have no running game whatsoever and that will come back to bite them in the butt, I still dont trust Jay Cutler to make all of these great decisions for the Bears and Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have to prove that they can get it done in the postseason. The Giants just have that feel to them that they are going to level off here in the regular season, get hot and make a run like they did last year. They have all the components to contend, they have a quarterback, a defense that gets after the passer, and the veterans that have been there and done that. The 49ers also have what it takes to go all the way, they have an elite defense, a great running game, and while their quarterback is not the greatest he has weapons that he needs to use. Looking further at the 49ers, I think their defense can go punch for punch with any offense in the NFL; they are big, fast, physical and can cover. They have the best tandem of linebackers in the NFL in Patrick Willis, and NaVorro Bowman, a great defensive line and a physical secondary. Offensively it consists of Frank Gore, Frank Gore, and a little more Frank Gore, they stuff it down the opponents throat and are extremely successful at it too, they are the top ranked rushing attack in the league. As if that was not enough they have a ton of weapons for Alex Smith to throw too, including a HOF in Randy Moss, a top 3 tight end in the game in Vernon Davis, and two very good receivers in Michael Crabtree and Mario Mannigham. Alex Smith is really the big question mark for this team, if they find themselves down and need a quick drive, can he deliver? The Giants main strength is their ability to go to a 3 WR set and win against almost any defense. They have a great QB in Eli Manning and have good receivers to go along with him. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are two of the best receivers in football; Nicks working more downfield with Cruz in the slot, there are very few defensive backs in this league that can defend them. They can then throw in rookies Reuben Randle and Ramsus Barden to put even more pressure on the defense. They also have a very much improved running game this year behind Ahmad Bradshaw and relatively unknown Andre Brown. These running backs have been able to take some pressure off of Eli at times so far this season, and that makes his offense even harder to stop. Defensively the Giants are known for their pass rushing ability, it is pretty crazy to see all the talent they can roll out there to get after the quarterback. You have to start with JPP, he is insanely gifted and really is just beginning to realize his talent, then the old veterans Justin Tuck

and Osi Umenyioria can still get it done, and then you have Linval Joseph who gets lost in the shuffle among these stars but he has quietly racked up 4 sacks so far this season. So as you can see the Giants rush the passer quite well. However when teams can rush the passer really good, it usually means that the opposing team will be able to run the ball pretty effectively against them and that holds true with the Giants. Their secondary is also really not that good and if the opposing quarterback has time he will find holes in the defense, but one thing the Giants secondary does well is take the ball away. They are second in the NFC to the Chicago Bears in takeaways with 26 of them. If these two teams have a rematch of last years NFC championship game I see the main key being turnovers. Whoever turns it over the least will win the football game. The 49ers will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Giants front, and try to minimize the number of times Alex Smith is subjected to their pass rush and I think this strategy works well, not producing that many points but it keeps Eli on the bench and takes away some chances of turnovers. On the Giants side, when Eli has time he will be able to move the ball down the field, but the you know the 49ers defense will dish out some hits and produce some fumbles. They also will eventually get to Eli and maybe force a bad decision and maybe a turnover. I see this game going to the wire but ultimately while Eli Manning is the far better quarterback in this game, I see the 49ers defense make enough plays to win the game and advance to the Super Bowl. So, based on what I have seen up until this point I think the Patriots will meet the 49ers in the upcoming Super Bowl. Once again though, this season is wide open and anybody could go all the way, January is going to be a very interesting time this year. All the contenders this year have their problems and any one of them could erase those problems and make a run, and at the same time those problems could get enlarged in the playoffs and ultimately doom them. For the sake of Patriots fans I hope my prediction holds true.