January 14, 2013 Probability Basic Definition: 1.

(Statistical) Experiment is a process that generates data where the outcome is known prior to its performance Examples: A Flip a coin B Toss a dice C Picking a card 2. Sample Space (S) is the set of all possible outcomes in an experiment Examples: SA {H, T} (Head or tail) SB {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Sc {(13 hearts), (13 diamonds, 13 flowers, 13 spades) 3. Event is a subset of the sample space Examples: EA {H} EB {2,4,6} EC {(kings)} 4. Probability of Event E is the number of elements in E divided by the number of elements in S Examples: P(EA) = P (EB) = 3/6 or P (EC) = 4/52 or 1/13 Examples: 1. Find the probability A coin is tossed 3 times (a) Getting exactly 2 heads (b) Getting at most 2 heads (c) At least 2 heads 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 possible outcomes S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT} (a) P (H=2) = 3/8 (b) P (H2) = 7/8 (c) P (H2) = 4/8 or 2. A couple plans to have 3 children. What is the probability that they will have exactly 2 sons? 2 x 2 x 2 = 8 possible outcomes S = {GGG, GGB, GBG, GBB, BGG, BGB, BBG, BBB} P (2 sons) = 3/8 3. In how many ways can a student answer a 10item True or False test? What is the probability of getting a perfect score if the student is just guessing?

2 x 21 x 210 = 1024 ways P (perfect score) = 1/1024 Properties of Probability: a. 0 P (E) 1 b. P (S) = 1 Certain Event P (0) = 0 Impossible Event c. P (not E) = 1 P (E) Complemet of E d. P (A U E) = P (A) + P (B) P (A B) U or and 4. What is the probability of getting a red card or a king? P (red U king) = P (red) + P (king) P (red king) = 26/52 + 4/52 + 2/52 = 28/52 = 7/13 e. Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint P (A B) = P (0) = 0 f. Conditional Probablitity given an event P (A/B) *Probability of A given B+ = P (A B) / P (B) g. Independent Events P (A B) = P (A) P (B) 5. What is the probability of picking a red card when you are told that it is a king? P (red / king) = P (red king) / P (king) = (2/52) / (4/52) = 2/4 or Multiplication Rule A1 x A2 x A1 Example: How many plates can be formed if the first letter should be a T and 0 cannot be used as the first number? T (A-Z) (A-Z) (1-9) (0-9) 1 x 26 x 26 x 9 x 10 x 2 = 121,680 If TED __(8 or 9) coding on Fridays 1 x 1 x 1 x 9 x 10 x 2 = 180 Permutatuion is the number of arrangements of n distinct objects taken r at a time nPr = n! / (n-r!) n! = n x (n-1) x x 3 x 2x 1 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 0! = 1 (by definition) Example: Number of arrangements of letters ABC
3P3

if:

(0-9)

= 3! / (3 3)! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6

Combination number of selection of n objects taken r at a time (order is not important) nCr = n! / (n-r)!r! Example: One combination of the letters ABC
3C3

= 3! / (3-3)!3! = 3! / 3! = 1

What is the probability of winning the jackpot Php 750,000,000 in the lotto (6/42) if the student bets his Php 100?
42C6

= 5,245,786 P (W) = 5/5,245,786 A blood bank in a certain hospital has 20 supplies of plasma units, 4 of which is contaminated with a virus causing hepatitis. A severely injured accident vitim who needs to be given 5 plasma units. What is the probability that the accident victim will not be exposed to the hepa virus?
20C5

P (not be exposed) = 16C5 / 20C5 = 28 = 28%