MPM SAMPLE 954/3 Section A [45 marks] Answer all questions in this section.

1 The number of ships anchored at a port is recorded every week. The results for 26 particular weeks are as follows: 32 26 (a) Display the data in a stem-and-leaf diagram. (b) Find the median and interquartile range. (c) Draw a box-and-whisker plot to represent the data. (d) State the shape of the frequency distribution, giving a reason for your answer. [2 marks] [3 marks] [4 marks] [2 marks] 28 27 43 38 21 42 35 18 19 37 25 50 45 46 35 23 32 40 18 20 26 29 30 46

6 It is thought that there is an association between the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light. In order to investigate this, each of a random sample of 120 persons is subjected to a standard dose of ultraviolet light. The degree of the reaction for each person is noted, "-" indicating no reaction, "+" indicating a slight reaction and "++" indicating a strong reaction. The results are shown in the table below. Eye colour Reaction + ++

Blue

Grey or green

Brown

7 29 21

8 10 9

18 16 2

Test whether the data provide evidence, at the 5% significance level, that the colour of a person's eyes and the reaction of the person's skin to ultraviolet light are independent. [10 marks]

Section B [ 15 marks]

Answer any one question in this section. 2 (a) Show that P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B). (b) Show that P(A' | B) = P(A') if A and B are independent. The events A and B are such that P(A) 0 and P(B) 0. [2 marks] [3 marks]

7 A random variable T, in hours, represents the life-span of a thermal detection system. The probability that the system fails to work at time t hour is given by

P(T < t) = 1 - e

(a) Find the probability that the system works continuously for at least 250 hours.

[3 marks]

(b) Calculate the median life-span of the system. 3 The number of defective electrical components per 1000 components manufactured on a machine may be modelled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4. (a) Calculate the probability that there are at most 3 defective electrical components in the next 100 components manufactured on the machine. [3 marks] (b) State the assumptions that need to be made about the defective electrical components in order that the Poisson distribution is a suitable model. [2 marks]

[3 marks]

(c) Find the probability density function of the life-span of the system and sketch its graph.

[4 marks]

(d) Calculate the expected life-span of the system.

[5 marks]

8 A random sample of 48 mushrooms is taken from a farm. The diameter x, in centimetres, of each mushroom is measured. The results are summarised by = 300.4 and = 2011.01. 4 The masses of bags of flour produced in a factory have mean 1.004 kg and standard deviation 0.006 kg. (a) Find the probability that a randomly selected bag has a mass of at least 1 kg. State any assumptions made. [4 marks] (b) Find the probability that the mean mass of 50 randomly selected bags is at least 1 kg. [4 marks] 5 The proportion of fans of a certain football club who are able to explain the offside rule correctly is p. A random sample of 9 fans of the football club is selected and 6 fans are able to explain the offside rule correctly. Test the null hypothesis Ho: p = 0.8 against the alternative hypothesis H1: p < 0.8 at the 10% significance level. [6 marks]

(a) Calculate unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance of the diameters of the mushrooms. [3 marks]

(b) Determine a 90% confidence interval for the mean diameter of the mushrooms.

[4 marks]

(c) Test, at the 10% significance level, the null hypothesis that the mean diameter of the mushrooms is 6.5cm. [6 marks]

(d) Relate the confidence interval obtained in (b) with the result of the test in (c).

[2 marks]