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Paper Solution of Alok Saboo

This document contains calculations and forecasts for market share, sales, and the impact of sampling for new products. It includes: - A calculation of forecasted long term market share of 31.13% based on repeat purchase rates from a trial. - Preference ratings and shares for different brands based on consumer preferences. - A calculation of time to peak sales and magnitude of peak sales for a product based on a sales curve model. - Sales forecasts calculated for a new product based on awareness, availability, purchase rates, and market share. - A comparison of sales forecasts with and without a sampling program, showing the program increased predicted sales.

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Kandarp Desai
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49 views

Paper Solution of Alok Saboo

This document contains calculations and forecasts for market share, sales, and the impact of sampling for new products. It includes: - A calculation of forecasted long term market share of 31.13% based on repeat purchase rates from a trial. - Preference ratings and shares for different brands based on consumer preferences. - A calculation of time to peak sales and magnitude of peak sales for a product based on a sales curve model. - Sales forecasts calculated for a new product based on awareness, availability, purchase rates, and market share. - A comparison of sales forecasts with and without a sampling program, showing the program increased predicted sales.

Uploaded by

Kandarp Desai
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PnB paper solution

A.1a) Forecasted long term market share= Week after launch Consumer# 1 2 3 4 5 6 C2 C1 C2 C1 C2 C2 N N C3 C1 N C2 N N C1 C1 C2 C1 N C3 N C2 C2 C1 N C3 C2 C1 C2 C1 N N C1 C2 N C2 N C1 N C2 C2 C2 N N C2 C1 C1 C2 N C1 C2 C1 C2 C1 N N C1 C3 C2 C2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Trial P*=4/6=0.667 No. of Repeat Purchases = 14 (Red N) No. of possible repeat purchases: 30 (All the cells in the row after Green N) Repeat rate R *=no. of repeat purchases observed / max no. of repeat purchases possible. = 14/30 = 46.67% Forecasted market share= 0.667* 0.4667=31.13% A.1b) Preference ratings for Brands N, C1, and C2 are P (N)=7, P(C1)=6, and P(C2)=8. Preference share = (preference rating for Brand N) / (sum of preference rating of all) = 8 / (7+7+5) = 42.11%

A.2a) St = 2800 + 0. 42Yt 0.00001Yt2 St = pM + (q-p)Yt (q/M) Yt2 pM = 2800 q-p = 0.42 q/M = 0.00001 q = 0.00001M p = 2800/M

0.00001M2 0.42M 2800 = 0 Therefore, M = 47851, p = 0.059, q = 0.479

a. Time to peak sales = T* = (1/(p+q)) ln(q/p) T* = 50.13 b. Magnitude of peak sales = S(T*) = M(p+q)2 / (4q) S(T*) = 7228.7

A3a) aw = Awareness = 0.8 av = Availability = 0.5 T = Proportion of TG who will buy = 0.75 R = Long run share among who buy = 0.55 Np = No. of purchases in the category per period = 120000 Therefore, Sales forecast = Np.aw..av.T.R = 120000 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 0.75 x 0.55 = 19800

A3b) s = Percent of TG sampled = s = 0.25 aw = awareness = 0.8 av = availability = 0.5 T = Proportion of TG who will buy = 0.75 R = Long run share among who buy = 0.55 Np = No. of consumer purchases = 120000 Rs = Long run share among who used sample = 0.5 Us = Proportion of Samples used by TG = 0.7 Therefore, Sales forecast = (1-s).Np.aw..av.T.R + s.Np. Us.Rs.av = 0.75 x 120000 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 0.75 x 0.55 + 0.25 x 120000 x 0.7 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 20100 Yes the sampling was a successful effort because it led to an increase of sales forecast from 19800 to 20100

A4. Slide 24 and Slide 27 of Day 1 A5. Slide 61 of Day 3 A6. Slide 32 to 36 of Day 2 A7. Slide 85 of Day 3

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