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Apply The Method Moving Average To Gernate A Best Forcast For Aprail 1?

The document provides sales data for 44 periods from July 2005 to February 2008. It includes the sales figure, time period, sales multiplied by time, time multiplied by itself, and a linear regression equation to model the sales trend over time. Applying the moving average method, it then calculates the 4-period moving average, cumulative moving average, and ratio of actual sales to the cumulative moving average for each period. This provides a forecast for future periods based on the trend in previous sales data.

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rajabkhan_54
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19 views6 pages

Apply The Method Moving Average To Gernate A Best Forcast For Aprail 1?

The document provides sales data for 44 periods from July 2005 to February 2008. It includes the sales figure, time period, sales multiplied by time, time multiplied by itself, and a linear regression equation to model the sales trend over time. Applying the moving average method, it then calculates the 4-period moving average, cumulative moving average, and ratio of actual sales to the cumulative moving average for each period. This provides a forecast for future periods based on the trend in previous sales data.

Uploaded by

rajabkhan_54
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Apply the method moving average to gernate a best forcast for aprail 1?

DAY

Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

MAM
10
13
12
8
7
15
16
12
9
10
13
12
11
9
17
8
10
11
15
12
12
15
14
17
10
8
6
12
15
16
13

11.500
12.500
10.000
7.500
11.000
15.500
14.000
10.500
9.500
11.500
12.500
11.500
10.000
13.000
12.500
9.000
10.500
13.000
13.500
12.000
13.500
14.500
15.500
13.500
9.000
7.000
9.000
13.500
15.500

E*E

0.500
(4.500)
(3.000)
7.500
5.000
(3.500)
(5.000)
(0.500)
3.500
0.500
(1.500)
(2.500)
7.000
(5.000)
(2.500)
2.000
4.500
(1.000)
(1.500)
3.000
0.500
2.500
(5.500)
(5.500)
(3.000)
5.000
6.000
2.500
(2.500)

0.250
20.250
9.000
56.250
25.000
12.250
25.000
0.250
12.250
0.250
2.250
6.250
49.000
25.000
6.250
4.000
20.250
1.000
2.250
9.000
0.250
6.250
30.250
30.250
9.000
25.000
36.000
6.250
6.250

435.500

MAM

11.667
11.000
9.000
10.000
12.667
14.333
12.333
10.333
10.667
11.667
12.000
10.667
12.333
11.333
11.667
9.667
12.000
12.667
13.000
13.000
13.667
15.333
13.667
11.667
8.000
8.667
11.000
14.333

E*E

(3.667)
(4.000)
6.000
6.000
(0.667)
(5.333)
(2.333)
2.667
1.333
(0.667)
(3.000)
6.333
(4.333)
(1.333)
(0.667)
5.333
(0.667)
2.000
1.000
3.333
(5.333)
(5.667)
(5.667)
4.000
6.333
5.000
(1.333)

13.444
16.000
36.000
36.000
0.444
28.444
5.444
7.111
1.778
0.444
9.000
40.111
18.778
1.778
0.444
28.444
0.444
4.000
1.000
11.111
28.444
32.111
32.111
16.000
40.111
25.000
1.778

435.778

DAY

Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Alpha=0.1
E=S-F
E*E

F
10
13
12
8
7
15
16
12
9
10
13
12
11
9
17
8
10
11
15
12
12
15
14
17
10
8
6
12
16
16
13

10.000
10.300
10.470
10.223
9.901
10.411
10.970
11.073
10.865
10.779
11.001
11.101
11.091
10.882
11.494
11.144
11.030
11.027
11.424
11.482
11.534
11.880
12.092
12.583
12.325
11.892
11.303
11.373
11.835
12.252

3.000
1.700
-2.470
-3.223
5.099
5.589
1.030
-2.073
-0.865
2.221
0.999
-0.101
-2.091
6.118
-3.494
-1.144
-0.030
3.973
0.576
0.518
3.466
2.120
4.908
-2.583
-4.325
-5.892
0.697
4.627
4.165
0.748

9.000
2.890
6.101
10.388
26.003
31.241
1.062
4.296
0.749
4.934
0.998
0.010
4.371
37.434
12.205
1.309
0.001
15.787
0.332
0.269
12.017
4.494
24.087
6.672
18.703
34.718
0.486
21.412
17.344
0.560

309.868

Alpha=0.5
E=S-F
E*E

F
10.000
11.500
11.750
9.875
8.438
11.719
13.859
12.930
10.965
10.482
11.741
11.871
11.435
10.218
13.609
10.804
10.402
10.701
12.851
12.425
12.213
13.606
13.803
15.402
12.701
10.350
8.175
10.088
13.044
14.522

3.000
0.500
-3.750
-2.875
6.563
4.281
-1.859
-3.930
-0.965
2.518
0.259
-0.871
-2.435
6.782
-5.609
-0.804
0.598
4.299
-0.851
-0.425
2.787
0.394
3.197
-5.402
-4.701
-4.350
3.825
5.912
2.956
-1.522

9.000
0.250
14.063
8.266
43.066
18.329
3.457
15.442
0.931
6.338
0.067
0.758
5.931
46.000
31.459
0.647
0.357
18.481
0.723
0.181
7.769
0.155
10.220
29.177
22.097
18.926
14.629
34.956
8.739
2.316

372.732

Alpha=0.9
E=S-F
E*E

F
10.000
12.700
12.070
8.407
7.141
14.214
15.821
12.382
9.338
9.934
12.693
12.069
11.107
9.211
16.221
8.822
9.882
10.888
14.589
12.259
12.026
14.703
14.070
16.707
10.671
8.267
6.227
11.423
15.542
15.954

3.000
-0.700
-4.070
-1.407
7.859
1.786
-3.821
-3.382
0.662
3.066
-0.693
-1.069
-2.107
7.789
-8.221
1.178
1.118
4.112
-2.589
-0.259
2.974
-0.703
2.930
-6.707
-2.671
-2.267
5.773
4.577
0.458
-2.954

9.000
0.490
16.565
1.980
61.769
3.190
14.603
11.439
0.438
9.401
0.481
1.143
4.439
60.673
67.586
1.387
1.249
16.907
6.702
0.067
8.845
0.494
8.583
44.984
7.133
5.140
33.331
20.952
0.210
8.727

427.908

years
2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARC
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARC
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARC
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB

QUARTER sales
4QMA
CMA
1
150
2
150
3
151
150.75
151.25
4
152
151.75
152.13
1
154
152.50
153.00
2
153
153.50
153.88
3
155
154.25
154.50
4
155
154.75
155.25
1
156
155.75
156.13
2
157
156.50
157.00
3
158
157.50
158.25
4
159
159.00
159.88
1
162
160.75
161.50
2
164
162.25
163.00
3
164
163.75
164.25
4
165
164.75
165.13
1
166
165.50
165.63
2
167
165.75
166.00
3
165
166.25
166.50
4
167
166.75
166.88
1
168
167.00
167.63
2
168
168.25
168.63
3
170
169.00
169.50
4
170
170.00
170.75
1
172
171.50
172.50
2
174
173.50
174.75
3
178
176.00
177.00
4
180
178.00
178.88
1
180
179.75
180.63
2
181
181.50
182.25
3
185
183.00
184.38
4
186
185.75
187.75
1
191
189.75
192.00
2
197
194.25
196.88
3
203
199.50
202.38
4
207
205.25
207.88
1
214
210.50
212.63
2
218
214.75
217.00
3
220
219.25
220.63
4
225
222.00
222.75
1
225
223.50
223.88
2
224
224.25
224.25
3
223
224.25
224.63
4
225
225.00
225.88

Sale/CMA

0.998347
0.999178
1.006536
0.994314
1.003236
0.99839
0.999199
1
0.99842
0.994527
1.003096
1.006135
0.998478
0.999243
1.002264
1.006024
0.990991
1.000749
1.002237
0.996294
1.00295
0.995608
0.997101
0.995708
1.00565
1.006289
0.99654
0.993141
1.00339
0.990679
0.994792
1.000635
1.003088
0.995791
1.006467
1.004608
0.997167
1.010101
1.005025
0.998885
0.992766
0.996126

MARC
APRIL
MAY
JUNE

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

1
0
1.006536
0.999199
1.003096
1.002264
1.002237
0.997101
0.99654
0.994792
1.006467
1.005025
1.000549

1
2
3
4

228
231
232
234

226.75
229.00
231.25

2
0
0.994314
1
1.006135
1.006024
0.996294
0.995708
0.993141
1.000635
1.004608
0.998885
1.003802

3
0.998347
1.003236
0.99842
0.998478
0.990991
1.00295
1.00565
1.00339
1.003088
0.997167
0.992766
0

4
0.999178
0.99839
0.994527
0.999243
1.000749
0.995608
1.006289
0.990679
0.995791
1.010101
0.996126
0

227.88 1.000549
230.13 1.003802

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AU
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB

sales(Y) TIME
150
150
151
152
154
153
155
155
156
157
158
159
162
164
164
165
166
167
165
167
168
168
170
170
172
174
178
180
180
181
185
186
191
197
203
207
214
218
220
225
225
224
223
225

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

SALE *TIME TIME*TIME y=a+b(t)


150.00
1.00
-24.37
300.00
4.00
-15.55
453.00
9.00
-6.73
608.00
16.00
2.09
770.00
25.00
10.91
918.00
36.00
19.73
1085.00
49.00
28.55
1240.00
64.00
37.37
1404.00
81.00
46.19
1570.00
100.00
55.01
1738.00
121.00
63.83
1908.00
144.00
72.65
2106.00
169.00
81.47
2296.00
196.00
90.29
2460.00
225.00
99.11
2640.00
256.00
107.93
2822.00
289.00
116.75
3006.00
324.00
125.57
3135.00
361.00
134.39
3340.00
400.00
143.21
3528.00
441.00
152.03
3696.00
484.00
160.85
3910.00
529.00
169.67
4080.00
576.00
178.49
4300.00
625.00
187.31
4524.00
676.00
196.13
4806.00
729.00
204.95
5040.00
784.00
213.77
5220.00
841.00
222.59
5430.00
900.00
231.41
5735.00
961.00
240.23
5952.00
1024.00
249.05
6303.00
1089.00
257.87
6698.00
1156.00
266.69
7105.00
1225.00
275.51
7452.00
1296.00
284.33
7918.00
1369.00
293.15
8284.00
1444.00
301.97
8580.00
1521.00
310.79
9000.00
1600.00
319.61
9225.00
1681.00
328.43
9408.00
1764.00
337.25
9589.00
1849.00
346.07
9900.00
1936.00
354.89

45
46
47
48
SUM

MARCH
APRIL
MAY
JUNE

228
231
232
234
8779

45
46
47
48
1176

10260.00
10626.00
10904.00
11232.00
232654.00

2025.00
2116.00
2209.00
2304.00
38024.00

363.71
372.53
381.35
390.17

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