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CIVL 181 Modelling Systems With Uncertainties (3-1-0:3)

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13 views

CIVL 181 Modelling Systems With Uncertainties (3-1-0:3)

gfshd

Uploaded by

Iss Saleh
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Spring 2009

CIVL 181 Modelling Systems with Uncertainties[3-1-0:3


Description: Identi!ication and modelling o! non-deterministic "ro#lems in ci$il engineering% and the treatment thereo! relati$e to engineering design and decision ma&ing' (e$elo"ment o! stochastic conce"ts and sim)lation models% and their rele$ance to real design and decision "ro#lems in $ario)s areas o! ci$il engineering'

Instr)ctor:

*ro!essor +ilson ,ang C.-/ +ai 0)en 1U 0ao +-/2 1iaolei

,eaching -ssistants:

Text: -ng% -'.-S' and +' .' ,ang' *ro#a#ility Conce"ts in 3ngineering: 3m"hasis on -""lications to Ci$il and 3n$ironmental 3ngineering% 4e' 5ohn +iley and Sons% 4006' -ng% -'.-S' and +' .' ,ang' *ro#a#ility Conce"ts in 3ngineering *lanning and (esign% Vol' II: (ecision% 7is& and 7elia#ility' 1880' 97ecommended: 1 mid-terms and one !inal e;amination% each category contri#)tes res"ecti$ely a""ro;imately <0 and =0 "ercent o! the !inal grade' .omewor& will contri#)te 10 "ercent to the !inal grade'

Lecture Topics
Role of uncertainties in engineering Data Analysis Basic concepts of probability Bases of probability estimation Events; combination of events Conditional probability; total probability Bayesian updating of information Analytical models of random phenomenon Random variables; descriptors; common distributions Occurrence models: Bernoulli and Poisson Implication of return period in design Problems with multiple random variables Function of random variables Model of sum and product Implication of correlation imple reliability evaluation Propagation of uncertainties Monte Carlo simulation Statistical methods Point and interval estimation Regression models and application C!oice and test of distribution models Decision analysis Role of decision in engineering; e"amples #ecision tree model; criteria; EM$ analysis $alue of information; utility; E%$ analysis Fault and Event Tree in Ris Analysis

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