Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased?

Working Paper 02-12

Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3

Really Increased?
Evidence from a Gravity Analysis

Evidence from a Gravity Analysis

300-4 Yomgok-Dong, Seocho-Gu, Seoul 137-747, Korea

Tel: (822) 3460-1114
Fax: (822) 3460-1122
URL: http://www.kiep.go.kr

KIEP

Heungchong KIM
Heungchong KIM

KIEP Working Paper 02-12

Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3

Really Increased?
Evidence from a Gravity Analysis

Heungchong KIM
November 2002

19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99

trade intensity index

3.40

3.20

3.00

2.80

2.60

2.40

2.20

2.00

Year

11.00

9.00
8.00
Three Major

7.00

excl. HK

6.00
5.00
4.00

year

19
98

19
96

19
94

19
92

19
90

19
88

19
86

19
84

19
82

3.00
19
80

trade intensity index

10.00

12.00
10.00
Korea-Japan
Korea-HK
Korea-China(incl. HK)

8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00

96

94

98
19

19

92

year

19

88

86

84

82

90

19

19

19

19

19

19

80

0.00
19

trade intensity index

14.00

98

96

19

94

19

92

year

19

90

19

88

19

86

19

84

19

82

19

80

China-Japan
Incl. HK

19

19

trade intensity index

20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00

10.00
Total
Major three
excl. HK
ASEAN

8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98

average trade intensity

index

12.00

9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00

year

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

Total
Major three
excl. HK
ASEAN

1980

average trade intensity

index

year

18.00

14.00
12.00

Total

10.00

Major three

8.00

excl. HK

6.00

ASEAN

4.00
2.00

year

19
98

19
96

19
94

19
92

19
90

19
88

19
86

19
84

19
82

0.00
19
80

average trade intensity index

16.00

98

96

19

94

19

92

year

19

90

19

88

19

86

19

84

19

82

19

80

Japan
Korea
China(excl. HK)
China

19

19

average trade intensity

index

5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00

2.5

ratio

2
China
Korea
Japan

1.5
1
0.5
0
1980

1985

1990
Year

1995

1999

1980
JAPAN H.K.
KOREA CHINA BUR
INDONESIAMAL
PHI
SINGAPORE
THAILANDVIETNAM
===============
=================
==============================
================
=============================
======================
=================
JAP
#VALUE!
3.63
5.57
6.03
2.43
10.15
3.72
2.40
3.59
2.08 #VALUE!
HON
3.63 #VALUE!
2.36
13.26
0.05
1.40
1.19
1.62
5.07
1.64 #VALUE!
KOR
5.57
2.36 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.00
1.91
1.77
1.44
1.20
0.91 #VALUE!
CHI
6.03
13.26 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.33
1.46
1.15
1.91
1.86 #VALUE!
BUR
2.43
0.05
0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.31
0.59
1.82
2.05 #VALUE!
IND
10.15
1.40
1.91
0.33 #VALUE! #VALUE!
0.37
1.21
8.98
1.25 #VALUE!
MAL
3.72
1.19
1.77
1.46
0.31
0.37 #VALUE!
1.48
14.85
2.45 #VALUE!
PHI
2.40
1.62
1.44
1.15
0.59
1.21
1.48 #VALUE!
1.03
0.62 #VALUE!
SIN
3.59
5.07
1.20
1.91
1.82
8.98
14.85
1.03 #VALUE!
4.10 #VALUE!
THA
2.08
1.64
0.91
1.86
2.05
1.25
2.45
0.62
4.10 #VALUE! #VALUE!
VIET
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

1990
JAPAN H.K.
KOREA CHINA BUR
INDONESIAMAL
PHI
SINGAPORE
THAILANDVIETNAM
===============
=================
==============================
================
=============================
======================
=================
JAP
#VALUE!
4.73
9.30
5.93
0.53
5.99
3.87
1.59
4.90
4.73
0.25
HON
4.73 #VALUE!
3.27
32.64
0.02
1.05
1.40
1.13
4.05
1.62
0.43
KOR
9.30
3.27 #VALUE!
0.20
0.38
2.65
2.19
0.92
2.21
1.45
0.05
CHI
5.93
32.64
0.20 #VALUE!
0.02
1.67
1.37
0.39
2.50
1.51
0.01
BUR
0.53
0.02
0.38
0.02 #VALUE!
0.04
0.35
0.91
0.93
0.70
0.00
IND
5.99
1.05
2.65
1.67
0.04 #VALUE!
1.13
0.69
3.95
0.70
0.18
MAL
3.87
1.40
2.19
1.37
0.35
1.13 #VALUE!
1.21
15.20
2.99
0.09
PHI
1.59
1.13
0.92
0.39
0.91
0.69
1.21 #VALUE!
1.28
0.75
0.69
SIN
4.90
4.05
2.21
2.50
0.93
3.95
15.20
1.28 #VALUE!
5.49
0.58
THA
4.73
1.62
1.45
1.51
0.70
0.70
2.99
0.75
5.49 #VALUE!
0.29
VIET
0.25
0.43
0.05
0.01
0.00
0.18
0.09
0.69
0.58
0.29 #VALUE!

1999
JAPAN H.K.
KOREA CHINA BUR
INDONESIAMAL
PHI
SINGAPORE
THAILANDVIETNAM
===============
=================
==============================
================
=============================
======================
=================
JAP
#VALUE!
5.02
7.98
12.17
0.31
4.21
5.18
3.12
5.11
5.01
0.96
HON
5.02 #VALUE!
3.42
25.22
0.03
0.01
2.13
1.55
4.13
1.87
0.35
KOR
7.98
3.42 #VALUE!
7.63
0.22
3.70
3.07
2.44
3.06
1.52
1.23
CHI
12.17
25.22
7.63 #VALUE!
0.01
2.14
1.91
0.91
3.10
1.86
0.70
BUR
0.31
0.03
0.22
0.01 #VALUE!
0.28
0.38
0.02
0.51
0.51
0.01
IND
4.21
0.01
3.70
2.14
0.28 #VALUE!
2.51
1.09
5.22
2.32
1.37
MAL
5.18
2.13
3.07
1.91
0.38
2.51 #VALUE!
2.49
15.81
3.83
0.74
PHI
3.12
1.55
2.44
0.91
0.02
1.09
2.49 #VALUE!
3.41
1.91
0.61
SIN
5.11
4.13
3.06
3.10
0.51
5.22
15.81
3.41 #VALUE!
5.72
1.66
THA
5.01
1.87
1.52
1.86
0.51
2.32
3.83
1.91
5.72 #VALUE!
1.33
VIET
0.96
0.35
1.23
0.70
0.01
1.37
0.74
0.61
1.66
1.33 #VALUE!

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/23/02
Time: 15:12
Sample(adjusted): 1 41
Included observations: 34
Excluded observations: 7 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE

0.417989
0.520072
0.467719
-0.599700

2.224042
0.091898
0.090602
0.239177

0.187941
5.659252
5.162369
-2.507352

0.8522
0.0000
0.0000
0.0178

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.682056
0.650261
0.834665
20.89999
-39.97151
2.520907

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.870588
1.411369
2.586559
2.766131
21.45207
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/16/02
Time: 14:57
Sample(adjusted): 1 44
Included observations: 41
Excluded observations: 3 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE

-2.865209
0.579968
0.608817
-0.573157

2.413120
0.104445
0.100175
0.279108

-1.187346
5.552862
6.077518
-2.053529

0.2427
0.0000
0.0000
0.0471

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.693366
0.668504
1.024331
38.82239
-57.05769
2.249036

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.583902
1.779102
2.978424
3.145602
27.88832
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/23/02
Time: 14:38
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE

-1.423467
0.377396
0.511166
-0.341447

1.938730
0.089693
0.074512
0.246995

-0.734227
4.207646
6.860137
-1.382407

0.4670
0.0001
0.0000
0.1743

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.758507
0.740837
0.974705
38.95208
-60.60480
2.237095

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7.206000
1.914638
2.871325
3.031917
42.92571
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/23/02
Time: 13:57
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE

2.673301
0.484512
0.345413
-0.678423

1.521896
0.073101
0.058492
0.191549

1.756559
6.627942
5.905311
-3.541777

0.0865
0.0000
0.0000
0.0010

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.782603
0.766696
0.756852
23.48579
-49.22123
2.330019

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.266222
1.566930
2.365388
2.525980
49.19838
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/23/02
Time: 11:38
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE

3.262429
0.438057
0.270226
-0.491015

1.236812
0.059383
0.048356
0.152324

2.637773
7.376817
5.588289
-3.223490

0.0117
0.0000
0.0000
0.0025

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.786138
0.770489
0.608043
15.15839
-39.36980
1.980345

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.502444
1.269209
1.927547
2.088139
50.23740
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/02 Time: 15:55
Sample(adjusted): 1 41
Included observations: 34
Excluded observations: 7 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
JAPASEAN
CHINASEAN

-0.295940
0.484159
0.541066
-0.667632
0.469427
1.884205
0.484331
0.776407
0.655544

4.242895
0.121854
0.165182
0.324081
0.574319
0.940629
0.581726
0.612426
0.729167

-0.069749
3.973284
3.275580
-2.060080
0.817362
2.003132
0.832576
1.267758
0.899031

0.9449
0.0005
0.0031
0.0499
0.4214
0.0561
0.4130
0.2166
0.3772

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.741949
0.659373
0.823721
16.96291
-36.42328
2.579607

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.870588
1.411369
2.671957
3.075994
8.985024
0.000010

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/16/02 Time: 15:59
Sample(adjusted): 1 44
Included observations: 41
Excluded observations: 3 after adjusting endpoints
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
JAPASEAN
CHINASEAN

-11.08537
0.627186
0.928465
-0.258399
1.134711
3.251992
0.588845
-0.588901
1.819341

3.378994
0.109153
0.118689
0.320607
0.479526
0.929834
0.531438
0.569475
0.616402

-3.280673
5.745930
7.822663
-0.805968
2.366317
3.497391
1.108022
-1.034113
2.951549

0.0025
0.0000
0.0000
0.4262
0.0242
0.0014
0.2761
0.3088
0.0059

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.816442
0.770553
0.852202
23.23993
-46.53863
2.497351

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.583902
1.779102
2.709201
3.085351
17.79149
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/02
Time: 16:53
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
JAPASEAN
CHINASEAN

-6.546653
0.382600
0.654681
-0.056871
1.248044
3.755183
0.158551
0.200623
1.180687

2.371401
0.086101
0.076668
0.277337
0.399216
0.841709
0.476345
0.502283
0.532660

-2.760669
4.443625
8.539114
-0.205061
3.126240
4.461381
0.332849
0.399422
2.216587

0.0090
0.0001
0.0000
0.8387
0.0035
0.0001
0.7412
0.6919
0.0331

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.860686
0.829727
0.790059
22.47098
-48.22738
2.118463

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7.206000
1.914638
2.543439
2.904772
27.80104
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/02 Time: 16:11
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
JAPASEAN
CHINASEAN

0.996762
0.442663
0.458482
-0.691211
0.288467
2.708521
0.480032
-0.076200
1.113112

1.990946
0.072841
0.061943
0.218862
0.321854
0.666109
0.375118
0.400994
0.421139

0.500648
6.077112
7.401738
-3.158197
0.896269
4.066183
1.279681
-0.190027
2.643097

0.6197
0.0000
0.0000
0.0032
0.3761
0.0002
0.2088
0.8504
0.0121

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.869847
0.840924
0.624960
14.06069
-37.67845
2.595566

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.266222
1.566930
2.074598
2.435930
30.07464
0.000000

Dependent Variable: TRADE

Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/14/02
Time: 17:03
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
JAPASEAN
CHINASEAN

-0.734713
0.499566
0.369531
-0.328307
0.884979
2.316507
0.565370
-0.240837
0.704982

1.592739
0.059360
0.048280
0.164557
0.263180
0.500592
0.285760
0.302107
0.313333

-0.461289
8.415908
7.653956
-1.995091
3.362645
4.627540
1.978479
-0.797191
2.249947

0.6474
0.0000
0.0000
0.0536
0.0018
0.0000
0.0556
0.4306
0.0307

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.887750
0.862805
0.470113
7.956218
-24.86629
1.954977

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.502444
1.269209
1.505168
1.866501
35.58896
0.000000

1980
Redundant Variables: ASEAN KORASEAN JAPASEAN CHINASEAN
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

0.664879
3.437198

Probability
Probability

0.622286
0.487492

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: TRADE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:39
Sample: 1 41
Included observations: 34
Excluded observations: 7
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
CHINA

-0.405031
0.499006
0.483254
-0.506784
1.525380

2.190975
0.089329
0.087741
0.236135
0.840294

-0.184863
5.586170
5.507731
-2.146161
1.815293

0.8546
0.0000
0.0000
0.0404
0.0798

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.714498
0.675118
0.804458
18.76743
-38.14187
2.447662

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.870588
1.411369
2.537757
2.762222
18.14384
0.000000

1985
Redundant Variables: DISTANCE KORASEAN JAPASEAN
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

1.613539
5.775467

Probability
Probability

0.205577
0.123060

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: TRADE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/17/02
Time: 10:47
Sample: 1 44
Included observations: 41
Excluded observations: 3
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
ASEAN
CHINA
CHINASEAN

-11.10205
0.500127
0.871033
0.978246
3.434285
1.667386

1.892335
0.094159
0.110763
0.397107
0.906245
0.542273

-5.866851
5.311490
7.863959
2.463431
3.789576
3.074810

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0188
0.0006
0.0041

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.788675
0.758486
0.874323
26.75542
-49.42636
2.311573

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

6.583902
1.779102
2.703725
2.954492
26.12440
0.000000

1990
Redundant Variables: DISTANCE KORASEAN JAPASEAN
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

0.063050
0.235819

Probability
Probability

0.978990
0.971610

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: TRADE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:52
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
ASEAN
CHINA
CHINASEAN

-6.894133
0.388587
0.650457
1.200893
3.700984
1.067272

1.158878
0.076305
0.072729
0.335561
0.784283
0.439385

-5.948973
5.092565
8.943593
3.578765
4.718939
2.429015

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0009
0.0000
0.0198

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.859954
0.841999
0.761056
22.58904
-48.34529
2.167082

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

7.206000
1.914638
2.415346
2.656234
47.89584
0.000000

1995
Redundant Variables: ASEAN KORASEAN JAPASEAN
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

0.877123
3.174554

Probability
Probability

0.462012
0.365487

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: TRADE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/17/02 Time: 10:56
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
CHINA
CHINASEAN

1.572529
0.401185
0.438274
-0.641867
2.589015
0.879555

1.272942
0.063441
0.057255
0.162489
0.643589
0.332593

1.235350
6.323754
7.654796
-3.950214
4.022778
2.644537

0.2241
0.0000
0.0000
0.0003
0.0003
0.0117

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.860333
0.842427
0.621999
15.08844
-39.26573
2.612592

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.266222
1.566930
2.011810
2.252698
48.04729
0.000000

1999
Redundant Variables: JAPASEAN
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

0.635514
0.787462

Probability
Probability

0.430567
0.374869

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: TRADE
Method: Least Squares
Date: 08/17/02
Time: 10:57
Sample: 1 45
Included observations: 45
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
CGDP2
PGDP2
DISTANCE
ASEAN
CHINA
KORASEAN
CHINASEAN

-0.136637
0.486307
0.370779
-0.398828
0.892254
2.358351
0.668962
0.805974

1.398045
0.056701
0.048016
0.138072
0.261723
0.495374
0.253248
0.285165

-0.097734
8.576729
7.721981
-2.888547
3.409158
4.760748
2.641527
2.826343

0.9227
0.0000
0.0000
0.0064
0.0016
0.0000
0.0120
0.0075

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.885768
0.864157
0.467792
8.096670
-25.26002
1.944962

Mean dependent var

S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

8.502444
1.269209
1.478223
1.799407
40.98607
0.000000

Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3 Really Increased?

Working Paper 02-12

Has Trade Intensity in ASEAN+3

Really Increased?
Evidence from a Gravity Analysis

Evidence from a Gravity Analysis

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Heungchong KIM
Heungchong KIM