Forecasting: Forecasting Is The Art and Science of Predicting Future Events
Forecasting: Forecasting Is The Art and Science of Predicting Future Events
n
t
n
et
1
2
= 268/10 = 26,8
b. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
MAPE =
n
t
t
D
t
F
t
D
n
1
100
=
2 , 30
10
100
% =
3,02
c. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
MAD =
n
n
t
et
1
= 44 /10 = 4,4
a. Bias of Forecasting Error (BFE)
BFE =
n
n
t
et
1
= 2/10 = 0,2
e. The Running Sum of Forecast Error
(RSFE)
RSFE =
n
t
Ft Dt
1
) (
atau
=
n
t
et
1
= 2
Time series Methods
Simple Average
Simple Average: Forecasting Method by averaging all
the past data
SA = D
t
+ D
t-1
+ D
t-2
+ . + D
t- (N 1)
N
Where :
D
t
: The present data
D
t-1
: The previous data (one period ahead)
D
t-(N-1)
: The oldest data
N : number of data /total period
Example
The present demand (D
t
) = 150 Bakpias
The demand 1 period ahead (D
t-1
) = 100 Bakpias
The demand 2 periods ahead (D
t-2
) = 130 Bakpias
The demand 3 periods ahead (D
t-3
) = 110 Bakpias
The demand 4 periods ahead (D
t-4
) = 170 Bakpias
The demand 5 periods ahead (D
t-5
) = 180 Bakpias
SA = 150 + 100 + 130 + 110 + 170 + 180 = 140 Bakpias
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Simple Moving Average
Moving average is a sequence of average value derived from
the sequential data (demand) by removing the first data and
adding the next data
Averaging is made based on the period of moving
We use a moving average when demand has no discernable
trend or seasonality.
In this case,
Systematic component of demand = level
Example :
With moving average of 5 (MA = 5),the average of five
data from five periods becomes the forecast of the
sixth period of the data selected
Moving average forecast with MA = 5
Month
Demand (ton)
(Dt)
Forecast
(Ft)
Jan 107,6
Feb 185,9
Mar 196,6
Apr 216,6
May 233,4
Jun 229,7 188,02
Jul 234,8 212,44
Agt 202,9
Note :
188,02 = 107,6 + 185,9 + 196,6 + 216,6 + 233,4
5
212,44 = 185,9 + 196,6 + 216,6 + 233,4 + 229,7
5
Moving average forecast with MA = 6
Month
Demand
(ton)
(Dt)
Forecast
(Ft)
Jan 107,6
Feb 185,9
Mar 196,6
Apr 216,6
May 233,4
Jun 229,7
Jul 234,8 193,27
Agt 202,9 214,47
Note :
193,27 = 107,6+ 185,9+ 196,6+ 216,6+ 233,4 + 229,7
6
214,47 = 185,9 + 196,6 + 216,6 + 233,4 + 229,7 +234,8
6