What Youll Learn

Understand how probability is used in everyday situations.

Identify and solve problems related to data collection.
Use either a population or a sample to answer a question.
Develop and carry out a plan to collect, display, and analyze data.
343
9
UNIT
Probability and Statistics
Why Its Important
Probability is used by
weather forecasters to more accurately predict the weather
insurance companies to help determine insurance premiums
Key Words
experimental probability
theoretical probability
subjective judgment
assumptions
fair
biased question
census
population
sample
valid conclusions
simple random sampling
systematic sampling
cluster sampling
self-selected sampling
convenience sampling
stratified random sampling
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12%
3
25
12
100
Check
1. Write each fraction as a percent.
a) ________ b) c)

________
2. Write each fraction as a decimal.
a) ________ b) ____________ c) ____________
________ ________
3. Write each percent as a fraction in simplest form.
a) 27% b) 25% c) 70%



100 25

100

100

100
3
8
13
50
17
100

100
3
20
2
5 20
2
5
35
100
9.1 Skill Builder
Relating Fractions, Decimals, and Percents
This hundredths chart represents one whole, 1, or 100%.
The shaded part of this grid can be described in 3 ways.
As a fraction:
As a decimal: 0.16
As a percent: 16%
16
100








Write a fraction as a percent: Write a percent as a fraction:
25
75%
25
Write a fraction as a decimal:
75
100
3
4
1 2 0.5
1
2
We can also read as 16 out of 100.
16
100
We can think of a
fraction as division.
4
4
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Check
1. Twenty marbles are placed in a bag: 9 red, 2 green, 5 purple, and 4 yellow
You take one marble from the bag without looking.
What is the theoretical probability of picking:
a) a green marble? b) a marble that is not red?
The outcomes are: The favourable outcomes are:
_____________________________ _____________________________
The favourable outcome is _______. Add to find the total number of
There are
_____
green marbles. favourable outcomes:
Theoretical probability _____ _____ _____ _____

There are
_____
favourable outcomes.
, or
Theoretical probability
_______________

_________________








number of marbles
total number of marbles
345
Theoretical Probability
The theoretical probability of an event occurring is:
Usually we refer to theoretical probability as the probability.
A die is labelled from 1 to 6.
The theoretical probability of rolling a number
greater than 4 is:
When a die is rolled, there are 6 possible outcomes.
They are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
A number greater than 4 is: 5 or 6
So, there are 2 favourable outcomes.
The probability of rolling a number greater than 4 is:

, or
1
3
2
6
number of outcomes favourable to that event
number of possible outcomes
number of outcomes favourable to that event
number of possible outcomes
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Experimental Probability
Experimental probability is the likelihood that something occurs based on the
results of an experiment. The experimental probability of an event occurring is:
It can be written as a fraction, decimal, or percent.
When a paper cup is slid off the edge of a table,
it can land open end up, open end down, or on its side.
Here are the results of 50 trials.
The experimental probability of landing on its side was:

0.48, or 48%
The experimental probability of landing open end down was:

0.32, or 32%
16
50
number of times cup landed open end down
total number of trials
24
50
number of times cup landed on its side
total number of trials
number of times the outcome occurs
number of times the experiment is conducted
Outcome Frequency
24
10
16
Check
1. A counter is randomly drawn from a bag of counters.
Here are the results of 25 draws:
What is the experimental probability of drawing:
a) a yellow counter? b) a blue or green counter?
Experimental probability Experimental probability

______________
_______________






number of times was drawn
total number of draws
number of times yellow was drawn
total number of draws
Colour Frequency
Red 7
Blue 4
Yellow 11
Green 3
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9.1 Probability in Society
Explain how probability is used outside the classroom.
We can use probability to help us make decisions.
Sometimes the decisions we make are influenced by our state of mind or by
our gut feeling. When we make a decision in this way, we make a subjective judgment.
For example, I think I did well on the test because I wrote in red pencil and red is my favourite colour.
FOCUS
Emily was the first to arrive at 9 of the last
10 volleyball practices. So, the coach thinks
Emily will arrive first for todays practice.
Is the coachs prediction based on theoretical
probability, experimental probability,
or subjective judgment? Explain.
Solution
The coachs decision is based on past experience. He has seen Emily arrive first at
almost all the practices. This is an example of experimental probability.
Identifying Predictions Based on Probabilities and Judgments Example 1
Check
1. Explain how each decision is based on theoretical probability, experimental probability,
or subjective judgment.
a) A school survey finds that 5 out of 6 students wear jeans to school on any
given day. So, Felix decides that if he randomly selects 6 students at his school,
5 of them will be wearing jeans.
Circle the statement that best describes how Felix made his prediction.
Felix made his prediction based on the results of a survey or experiment.
Felix made his prediction based on theoretical probability.
Felix made his prediction based on his personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
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348
b) Carlos and Natalie are playing a board game. Natalie needs to roll double ones on her
next roll to win. The probability of rolling double ones with a standard pair of dice is
1 out of 36. So, Natalie predicts she will lose the game.
Circle the statement that best describes how Natalie made her prediction.
Natalie made her prediction based on the results of a survey or experiment.
Natalie made her prediction based on theoretical probability.
Natalie made her prediction based on her personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________
Sometimes when we make a decision, we take certain things for granted.
When we do this, we make assumptions.
A health magazine claims that people who exercise 3 times per week for an hour each time
reduce their risk of developing heart disease by 40%. Monique plays soccer 3 times a week
for an hour each time. So, Monique thinks she has reduced her risk of developing heart
disease by 40%.
a) What assumptions is Monique making?
b) How might the outcome change if the assumptions change?
Solution
a) Monique assumes that no other factors increase the risk of developing heart
disease. Other factors that should be considered are:
eating habits
family history
age
blood pressure
exposure to smoking
b) If Monique eats a lot of junk food, or if she lives with people who smoke,
Moniques risk of developing heart disease might increase.
If Moniques family has no history of heart disease, she lives with non-smokers, and
she eats a healthy diet, her risk of developing heart disease might decrease.
Explaining How Assumptions Affect a Probability Example 2
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Check
For each situation:
a) What assumptions are being made?
b) How might the outcome change if the assumptions change?
1. Sam thinks more people purchase Ultra White toothpaste than Shine.
a) Do you listen to all of your dentists suggestions?
_____
Does the cost of an item help you decide whether to purchase it or not?
______
Would you make a trip to a specialty store to buy toothpaste?
_____
What assumptions has Sam made?
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
b) Fewer people might purchase Ultra White toothpaste if:
its cost is
___________
than that of Shine
it is only available in
___________
stores
More people might purchase Ultra White toothpaste if:
its cost is
___________
than that of Shine
it is available in
___________
stores where toothpaste is sold
2. Salima has scored more than 10 points in her last 5 basketball games.
With 15 min left to play in the game, Salima has 4 points.
Salima has scored as often as she usually does so far in the game.
So, Salima will score at least 6 points in the remaining 15 min.
a) Assumptions:
________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________
b) Salima may not score 10 points in the game if:
the opposing team is
___________
in the standings than Salimas team
Salima is playing
___________
Salima may score more than 10 points in the game if:
the opposing team is
___________
in the standings than Salimas team

______________________________________________________________________________
toothpaste
over Shine
toothpaste
2 out of 3
dentists
recommend
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1. Explain how each decision is based on theoretical probability, experimental
probability, or subjective judgment.
a) Josh is given a bag that contains 5 red marbles and 5 blue marbles. He is to
pick one marble from the bag without looking. He decides that his chance of
picking a red marble is 1 out of 2, or 50%.
Circle the statement that best describes how Josh made his prediction.
Josh made his decision based on the results of a survey or experiment.
Josh made his decision based on theoretical probability.
Josh made his decision based on his personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
b) A quality control officer for a light bulb manufacturer tested 10 light bulbs.
Nine of the bulbs burned for more than 1000 h. So, the manufacturer decides
that 90% of the light bulbs will burn for more than 1000 h.
Circle the statement that best describes how the manufacturer made the decision.
The manufacturer made the decision based on the results of an experiment.
The manufacturer made the decision based on theoretical probability.
The manufacturer made the decision based on personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
c) A pair of concert tickets is hidden in an envelope. There are 3 envelopes to
choose from: red, green, and blue. Desi chooses the green envelope because
green is his favourite colour.
Circle the statement that best describes how Desi made his decision.
Desi made his decision based on the results of an experiment.
Desi made his decision based on theoretical probability.
Desi made his decision based on personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
Practice
350
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2. What assumptions are being made in each situation?
a) Lin passed 6 of her last 7 math tests. So, Lin is sure she will pass tomorrows test.
Assumptions: ________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
b) The first tunnel on a road through the mountains has height 4.5 m. A truck
driver decides that her truck of height 4.3 m will pass safely through all tunnels
on the road.
Assumption: _________________________________________________________________
c) The Tigers have won all of their home games to date. So, they will win
tomorrows home game.
Assumptions: ________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
3. For each situation:
i) What assumptions are being made?
ii) How might the outcome change if the assumptions change?
a) One hundred bottles of water were sold in the school cafeteria yesterday. So,
the school orders 500 bottles of water for next week.
i) Assumptions: ____________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
ii) Fewer bottles of water might be sold if:
_________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
More bottles of water might be sold if:
_____________________________________________
_____________________________________________
b) Marcels dad leaves for work 5 min later when there is
a school holiday because traffic is always lighter.
i) Assumptions: __________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
__________________________________
ii)
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
________________________________________________
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352
Check
1. Which of these questions are biased? Insert is or is not each time.
For each biased question, write a better question.
a) Do you prefer to watch boring newscasts or exciting reality shows?
Is there a favoured answer?
_____
So, the question
_______
biased.
A better question is: __________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
b) What is your favourite type of music: Rap ______ Pop ______ Classical ______
Hip Hop ______ Other ______?
Is there a favoured answer?
_____
So, the question
_______
biased.
A better question is:
_____________
c) I love eating apple pie. What is your favourite dessert: Apple pie ______
Cheesecake ______ Ice Cream ______ Fruit ______ Other ______?
Is there a favoured answer?
_____
So, the question
_______
biased.
A better question is: _________________________________________________ ___________
____________________________________________________________________ __________
9.2 Skill Builder
Writing a Questionnaire
A questionnaire should contain questions that are fair.
A question should not influence a persons answer.
If it does, the question is a biased question.
Each person should also be able to answer the question.
To find out whether her classmates prefer dogs or cats, a student asks:
Do you like cute little puppies or mean hairy cats?
This question is worded in such a way that dogs are favoured over cats.
So, the question is biased. A better question would be:
Do you prefer dogs, cats, or neither?
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9.2 Potential Problems with Collecting Data
Describe how the collection of data may be unfavourably affected.
A biased question could lead to a problem with data collection.
There are many other factors that should also be considered.
FOCUS
Potential Problem Example
Timing
when data are collected could affect the
results
The results of a survey on ski jackets may differ
if the survey is conducted in the summer instead
of the winter.
Privacy
people may not want to share personal
information
Students may not want to share their school
grades.
Cultural Sensitivity
the survey must not offend other cultures
A question about Christmas shopping may
offend those who do not celebrate Christmas.
Cost
the cost of collecting data should be
considered
The cost of mailing a survey to a large number
of people may be too expensive.
Time
the amount of time needed to collect the
data should be considered
A 30-min survey conducted over the lunch
period may not interest students. Most would
not want to give up 30 min of their lunch time.
Use of Language
the way a question is worded could lead
people to answer in a certain way
This question may lead students to answer Yes:
Dont you think the price of a concert ticket is
too high?
A survey is conducted to determine the favourite computer game among students
aged 13 to 16. Students aged 13 to 16 are asked to participate in a 1-h survey. Identify
the potential problem with this survey and how the problem could be avoided.
Solution
The potential problem is time. The survey takes too long to complete. Students of this
age will not want to participate in a 1-h survey.
The amount of time that it takes to complete the survey should be reduced to
no more than 15 min.
Identifying Potential Problems Example 1
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354
Check
1. For each survey question, identify the potential problem and how the
problem could be avoided.
a) A survey is conducted to find out which part of a chocolate
Easter Bunny students eat first. The question asked was:
Which part of a chocolate Easter bunny do you eat first:
Ears ______ Tails ______ Leg ______ Nose ______ Other ______?
Is there a problem with the survey question?
______
Is there a problem with cost or time?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
How would you avoid the problem? __________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
b) A survey is conducted to find out which type of sunscreen people use.
A sunscreen manufacturer conducts the survey in January because
business is slow. The question asked was:
What sun protection factor does your usual sunscreen have:
Less than 30 ______ 30 ______ Greater than 30 ______ Do not use ______?
Is there a problem with the survey question?
______
Is there a problem with cost or timing?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
_______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
How would you avoid the problem? __________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________
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355
Sarah wants to determine the average annual income of each household in her
neighbourhood. She plans to go door-to-door in her neighbourhood to ask this
question: What is your annual household income? Her brother thinks Sarahs
plan is problematic. Explain why.
Solution
Sarah is asking her neighbours, many of whom she knows, to share personal
information. This may make her neighbours uncomfortable. Sarah should
consider an anonymous survey where the possible choices are given in ranges.
Analyzing Data Collection for Problems Example 2
Check
Explain why each survey might be problematic.
1. A local theatre wants to survey the community to find out what types of
events they might be interested in attending. The theatre plans to send out
5000 surveys, with a self-addressed stamped envelope in each survey.
Is there a problem with time?
______
Is there a problem with cost?
______
Is there a problem with cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain. ___________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________________
2. The local government wants to find out how satisfied its citizens are with their
governments performance. They plan to conduct a random 30-min telephone
survey 2 days after they raised taxes.
Is there a problem with time?
______
Is there a problem with timing?
______
Is there a problem with privacy?
______
Explain
. _______________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
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356
Practice
1. For each survey, identify a potential problem.
a) An on-line pet magazine surveys its readers
by asking this question:
Dont you think people who dont walk their dogs
at least once a day are being cruel
to their dogs? Yes or No
Is there a problem with the survey question?
______
Is there a problem with cost or time?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
b) The school cafeteria surveys all students to find out what meat dishes they
would like to see served. They asked this question:
Which meat dish would you like to see served in the cafeteria:
Meatloaf ______ Roast Beef ______ Sausage ______ Chicken ______ Other ______?
Is there a problem with language?
______
Is there a problem with cost or time?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
c) A French tutor asks all students in the school for their French marks so she
can find out which students might need her help.
Is there a problem with cost or time?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
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2. For each scenario in question 1, describe how the problem could be avoided.
a) __________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
b) _______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
c) __________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
3. Explain why each survey might be problematic.
a) A cell-phone company wants to find out how satisfied customers are with
the company and its product. They plan to conduct a 25-min telephone
survey with 10 000 of its customers.
Is there a problem with time or cost?
______
Is there a problem with privacy?
______
Is there a problem with cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain.
___________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________
b) To find out which sport students in the school prefer, you plan to poll the
students the day after the volleyball team wins the championship.
Is there a problem with timing or cost?
______
Is there a problem with privacy?
______
Is there a problem with cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain. ___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
4. For each scenario in question 3, describe how the problem could be avoided.
a) ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
b) ___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
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9.3 Using Samples and Populations to
Collect Data
Select and defend the choice of using a population or a sample.
When a census is conducted, data are collected from all people or items in the
population. For example, to find the favourite movie of all Grade 9 students in
a school, all Grade 9 students in the school are surveyed. Since all students in
the population were surveyed, a census was conducted.
When the population is large, it is often too costly or time consuming to survey
the entire population. So, we often collect data from a representative portion of
the population, or a sample. For example, surveying 50 of the 300 Grade 9
students is a sample.
FOCUS
A local fitness club wants to find out how many members use the hot tub.
What is the population of the survey?
Solution
The fitness club wants to find out how many members use the hot tub. So, the
population is all members of the club.
Identifying the Population of a Survey Example 1
Check
1. Identify the population of each survey.
a) A local restaurant owner wants to know which entree on the menu is
preferred by the restaurants customers.
____________________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________
b) A school principal wants to know how many of the teachers in the school
assign homework on weekends.
____________________________________________________________________________________
c) A city planner wants to know which roads in Vancouver people think are
in most need of repair.
____________________________________________________________________________________
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359
Winnipegs city council wants to find out if its residents are satisfied with the garbage
removal service. Should a sample or census be used to collect the data? Explain why.
Solution
A sample should be used. The city of Winnipeg is very large and it would be
time consuming to survey every household in the city.
Deciding whether to Use a Census or a Sample Example 2
Check
In each case, should a sample or a census be used to collect the data?
1. A smoke detector manufacturer wants to test the product before it is
packaged for sale.
Would it take a long time to test every smoke detector made? _______
Would it cost a lot of money to test every smoke detector? _______
Should a sample or a census be used? ___________ ___
2. A teacher wants to find out whether her 30 students would prefer to have
their math test on Friday or Monday.
Would it take a long time to ask each student? _______
Would it cost a lot of money to ask each student? _______
Should a sample or a census be used? _________
3. A radio station wants to poll its listeners to find the top 10 songs of the week.
Would it take a long time to poll every listener? _______
Would it cost a lot of money to poll every listener? _______
Should a sample or a census be used? ___________ ___
The sample chosen should represent the population. For example, if the sample
of Grade 9 students contains only girls, the results will not accurately represent
the population. The sample should contain a proportional number of girls and
boys to provide valid conclusions.
The size of the sample should also be considered. If the sample size is too
small, the results may not represent the population. For example, a sample of
ten Grade 9 students may not provide valid conclusions.
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360
The school council wants to know if students would like to have a dance to
celebrate the end of the school year. The council surveys 2 girls from each
grade to find out.
Was a sample or a census used to collect the data?
Do you think the conclusions would be valid? Explain.
Solution
Not all students in the school were surveyed. So, the data were collected from a sample.
All students surveyed were girls. And, 2 students from each grade is probably not enough to
represent the population. So, the conclusions are probably not valid. More students should be
surveyed, with a proportional number of boys and girls included.
Identifying and Critiquing the Use of Samples Example 3
Check
In each case, was a sample or a census used to collect the data?
Wherever a sample was used, do you think the conclusions would be valid?
Explain.
1. To find out what percent of the population of British Columbia has access to
the Internet, all residents of Victoria were surveyed.
What is the population?
___________________________________
Were all residents surveyed? _______
Was a sample or census used?
____________
Do you think the results of the survey would represent the residents of a small
northern mining community? _______
Do you think the conclusions would be valid? _______
2. To ensure safe and secure air travel from Edmonton International Airport,
anyone boarding a plane at the airport goes through a security check.
What is the population?
________________________________________________
_________________________________________________ ________________________
Were all people boarding planes checked? _______
Was a sample or a census used?
___________
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3. To find out the favourite flavour of bubble tea, every fifth customer of the
bubble tea caf is surveyed.
What is the population?
____________________________
Were all customers surveyed? _______
Was a sample or a census used? ____________
Do you think the conclusions would be valid?
_______
Why?
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
Practice
1. Identify the population of each survey.
a) The manager of an apartment building wants to find out which apartments
in the building need new carpet.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
b) The manager of a video game store in Grande Prairie wants to find out
how many video games are owned by the average teenager in town.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
c) A company that manufactures programmable thermostats wants to test its
thermostats for defects.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
2. In each case, describe why a sample was used instead of a census.
a) A car company in Canada wants to find out whether people plan to buy or
lease their next vehicle.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
b) A clothing manufacturer wants to make sure the guarantee that its clothing
will not shrink when washed is upheld.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
_____________________________________________________________ _______ __________ ____
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3. In each case, describe why a census was used instead of a sample.
a) The Canadian government wants to determine the population of the
different towns and cities in Canada.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
b) A school principal wants to find out how many students plan to take the
Grade 10 Computer and Information Science course next year.
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
_____________________________________________________________ _______ _________ _
4. In each case, should a sample or a census be used to collect the data?
a) The school basketball teams are getting a new logo. There are 2 logos to
choose from and 24 basketball team members in the school.
Would it take a long time to survey each team member? _____
Would it cost a lot of money to survey each team member? _____
Should a sample or census be used?
___________
b) The City of Regina wants to find out what
percent of its residents use public transportation
on a daily basis.
Would it take a long time to survey each
` resident of Regina?
_____
Would it cost a lot of money to survey
each resident?
_____
Should a sample or a census be used?
__________
5. In each case, a sample was used to collect data. Do you think the
conclusions would be valid? Explain.
a) To find out if more daycare centres are needed in the city, all residents over the
age of 50 were surveyed.
Do you think most residents over the age of 50 would have children in daycare?
_____
Do you think the conclusions would be valid?
_____
b) To find out what percent of the vehicles in a mall parking lot have a
bumper sticker, Neil looks on the bumper of every fourth vehicle.
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
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1. Explain how this decision is based on theoretical probability, experimental probability, or
subjective judgment.
Peyton booked his piano exam for the 17th of the month. Peyton predicts he will do well
because 17 is his lucky number.
Circle the statement that best describes how Peyton made his prediction.
Peyton made his decision based on the results of a survey or experiment.
Peyton made his decision based on theoretical probability.
Peyton made his decision based on his personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
2. Last week, Lori sat in the desk closest to the window. She was cold 4 out of 5 days. So, this
week Lori decides to move away from the window so she will be more comfortable.
a) What assumptions is Lori making?

_________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________
b) How might the outcome change if the assumptions change?
Lori might still be cold if:

_________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________
Lori might be too hot if:

_________________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
9.1
Can you
Determine if a decision is based on theoretical probability, experimental
probability, or subjective judgment?
Identify assumptions associated with decisions based on probabilities?
Identify potential problems with data collection?
Determine if a sample or census should be used to collect data?
Decide whether the data collection provides valid conclusions?
CHECKPOINT CHECKPOINT
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364
3. A survey is conducted at the local shopping mall over the Victoria Day weekend to
find out how much money families usually spend on back-to-school shopping.
a) Identify potential problems with this survey.
Is there a problem with cost or timing?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
b) How could the problem be avoided?
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________
4. Identify the population of this survey. Should a sample or a census be used to
collect the data?
The city of West Vancouver wants to know how many people plan on attending the
fireworks display on Canada Day.
Population:
___________________________________
Would it take a long time to survey each resident?
_______
Would it cost a lot of money to survey each resident?
_______
Should a sample or a census be used?
_________
5. A sample was used to collect data. Do you think the conclusions would be
valid? Explain.
To find out how many players on the hockey team use a wooden stick, the coach
surveyed all defensemen.
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________
9.2
9.3
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9.4 Selecting a Sample
Understand and choose an appropriate sample.
There are many different ways to select an appropriate sample.
FOCUS
Sampling Method Example
Simple Random Sampling
each member of the population has an
equal chance of being chosen
The name of each student in your class is put in a
hat and 5 names are drawn.
Systematic Sampling
every nth member of the population is
chosen
Every 10th name in the telephone directory is
chosen.
Cluster Sampling
the population is divided into groups
and every member of one group is
chosen
A school has five Grade 9 classes. All students in
one class are chosen.
Self-Selected Sampling
members of the population volunteer
to be chosen
Forty students volunteer to take a survey about
homework habits.
Convenience Sampling
members of the population who are
convenient are chosen
The principal chooses the first 3 boys she sees to
help her choose the word of the week.
Stratified Random Sampling
some members of each group of the
population are randomly chosen
The schools population is divided into grades and
20 students from each grade are chosen.
Five members of each team in the soccer league are surveyed to find out how satisfied they
are with the practice facilities.
Which sampling method was used? Explain.
Solution
The leagues population is divided into teams. Five members from each
team are surveyed. So, stratified random sampling was used.
Identifying the Sampling Method Example 1
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Check
1. Identify the sampling method used for each survey.
a) To find out the favourite newspaper of city residents, the first 50 people
entering a shopping mall were surveyed.
Did each shopper have an equal chance of being chosen?
_____
Was the population divided into groups?
_____
Were the shoppers chosen for convenience?
_____
Sampling method: _________________________
b) To find out if a fitness club should extend its hours, every fifth person entering
the club was surveyed.
Was every nth person surveyed?
_____
Did people volunteer to be surveyed?
_____
Sampling method:
______________________
c) To find out what students think of the new menu in the cafeteria, volunteers are
asked to complete an on-line survey.
Was every nth person surveyed?
_____
Did people volunteer to be surveyed?
_____
Was the population divided into groups?
_____
Sampling method:
_________________________
Shania wants to find out how many students in the school plan on attending the
spring dance. Which sampling method would you suggest she use? Why?
Method A: Survey the first 50 students to enter school through the main doors.
Method B: Randomly select 20 students from each grade.
Solution
Using Method A, only those students who enter through the main doors can be
surveyed. It is also unlikely that each grade will be represented equally, especially if
the main doors are closer to the school bus drop-off area than to the parking lot.
Using Method B, each grade level is represented equally and each student has an
equal chance of being surveyed.
Method B is the better method.
Choosing the Better Sampling Method Example 2
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Check
In each case, which sampling method do you think is better? Why?
1. Jerome wants to find out what percent of the residents of Edmonton enjoy
watching hockey.
Method A: Survey every 20th person who enters the arena to watch the
Edmonton Oilers game.
Method B: Survey every 500th person in the Edmonton phonebook.
Method A: Do most people who go to an Oiler game like hockey?
______
Does each resident of Edmonton have an equal chance of being
surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of the population of Edmonton?
______
Method B: Does each resident of Edmonton have an equal chance of being
surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of the population of Edmonton?
______
Better method:
____________
2. Ms. Cheung wants to find out students opinions on the class trip
to the symphony.
Method A: Put the names of each student in a hat and survey the first
6 names drawn.
Method B: Survey all students in the class who take music lessons.
Method A: Does each student have an equal chance of
being surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of the class population?
______
Method B: Do most students who take music lessons enjoy music?
______
Does each student have an equal chance of
being surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of the class population?
______
Better method:
____________
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Check
In each case, which sampling method was used? Is the sampling method
appropriate? Explain.
1. An animal rights group wants to find out how residents feel about the proposed
location of the new dog park. Surveys were left in all pet stores in the area.
Sampling method:
__________________________
Is the method appropriate?
______
Why? ___________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
2. A newspaper wants to find out if its customers are satisfied with the time at
which the Friday paper is delivered. Every 5th person that subscribes to home
delivery of the paper is called.
Sampling method:
_______________________
Does everyone who subscribes to the paper take the Friday paper?
______
Should the people who only get the weekend papers be surveyed?
______
Is the method appropriate?
______
A math teacher wants to find out what percent of his students completed the
assigned homework. He divides the class into boys and girls, then asks to see
the homework of all boys in the class.
Which sampling method was used?
Is the sampling method appropriate? Explain.
Solution
The class was divided into 2 groups girls and boys and all boys were chosen.
So, the sampling method is cluster sampling.
The sampling method is not appropriate because the teacher only looked at the
boys homework. It is possible that many more boys than girls completed the
homework, or vice versa. For the sample to be representative of the class, the
teacher should look at the homework of an equal number of girls and boys.
Identifying Appropriate Samples Example 3
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Practice
1. Identify the sampling method used for each survey.
a) The population is divided into age groups and those people in the
1824 age group are surveyed.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
b) The members of the population are given ID numbers. The numbers are
entered into a computer. The computer randomly selects 50 numbers.
The people whose numbers are selected complete the survey.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
c) A market researcher stands beside the information booth of a mall and asks
people who walk by to participate in a survey.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
2. Identify a potential problem with each sampling method.
a) To find out which new books students would like to see in the library,
the school librarian surveys all English teachers in the school.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
b) To find out the favourite vacation destination of Canadians, listeners of a
Regina radio station were asked to complete an on-line survey on the radio
stations website.
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
3. Which sampling method do you think is better? Why?
a) Marco wants to find out whether students who purchase lunch at the cafeteria
would like to have the lunch special served with salad or coleslaw.
Method A: Survey every 5th person who enters the cafeteria.
Method B: Survey every 5th person in the cafeteria line-up.
Method A: Does everyone who eats in the cafeteria buy their lunch?
______
Does the opinion of those who dont buy their lunch matter to the
cafeteria staff?
______
369
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Method B: Does each student who buys from the cafeteria have an equal
chance of being surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of the students who purchase from
the cafeteria?
______
Better method:
_____________
370
b) A local street has an apartment building on the north side and houses on the
south side. Maya wants to find out whether residents would like to see a 24-h
bus service on the street.
Method A: Survey the occupants of every apartment on the third floor.
Method B: Survey every 5th house on the street and every 5th name on the
apartment buildings directory.
Method A: Who do you think would make more use of public transit: the
residents of the apartment building or the residents of the houses?
______________________________________________________________
Is the sample representative of all the residents of the street?
______
Method B: Is the sample representative of all the residents of the street?
______
Better method:
____________
4. In each case, which sampling method was used? Is the sampling method
appropriate? Explain.
a) To find out about the study habits of students in the school, all students
on the honour roll were asked to complete the survey.
Sampling method:
_________________
Is the method appropriate?
______
Why?
_______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
b) To find out the favourite toast topping of people in the restaurant, every
4th person who orders toast is surveyed.
Sampling method:
_____________________
Is the method appropriate?
______
Why?
_______________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
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9.5 Designing a Project Plan
Develop a project plan for data collection.
To design a plan to collect data, choose a topic that interests you, then follow these 5 steps.
Topic
Design a survey to find out the favourite radio station of students in your school.
Step 1
Name 4 radio stations students might listen to.
_____________________
_____________________
_____________________
_____________________
Some students might not listen to these stations.
Others may not listen to the radio.
What other choices could we add?
_________________________________
FOCUS
Step What to think about
1. Prepare a question. the wording should not influence a persons answer
the question should be sensitive to different cultures
participants should be anonymous if the question is personal
2. Identify the population
and choose a sample.
decide if you will you use a sample or a census
choose a sampling method (consider time and cost)
be sure the sample is representative of the population
3. Collect the data. be sure the timing of the survey is appropriate
4. Analyse and display
the data.
display the data in a table or on an appropriate graph
draw conclusions from your data
5. Evaluate your plan. have you avoided all potential problems with data collection?
was your sample appropriate?
are the conclusions valid?
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372 372
Step 2
What is the population?
______________________________________
Would it take a lot of time to survey each student in the school?
______
Will you use a census or a sample?
____________
Which sampling method will you use?
Method A: Survey all students in Grade 9.
Method B: Randomly survey 15 students from each grade level.
Method A: Do students in Grade 9 like the same radio stations as
students in other grades?
______
Is the sample representative of all students in the school?
______
Method B: Does each student in the school have an equal chance of
being surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of all students in the school?
______
Which method will you use?
_____________
Step 3
When will you collect the data?
___________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________
Collect the data. Record the data in the tally chart.
Choice Frequency Total
___________________ __________________________ ________
___________________ __________________________ ________
___________________ __________________________ ________
___________________ __________________________ ________
___________________ __________________________ ________
___________________ __________________________ ________
Write a question:
___________________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________________
Is there a possible answer for all students? ______
Is the question biased? ______
Is the question sensitive to all cultures? ______
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Step 4
What is the favourite radio station of students in your school?
__________________________
How do you know?
_________________________________________________________________
Display the data on a bar graph.
How can you tell which radio station is the favourite by looking at the bar graph?
________________________________________________________________________________
Step 5
Did you have any problems with data collection?
Was your sample appropriate?
Are your conclusions valid?
373
Radio Stations
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
Title:
Suppose you displayed the data on a
circle graph. How would you know
which radio station is the favourite?
___________________________________________
___________________________________________
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374
Data Wordsearch
Find each of these words in the grid above.
Assumptions Experimental Sample
Biased Fair Sensitivity
Census Judgment Systematic
Cluster Population Theoretical
Convenience Privacy Time
Cost Random Valid
Unit 9 Puzzle
S Y S T E M A T I C A E R N T
S U Q W E C N E I N E V N O C
E B E C H E M I T A P O N I V
C V R X T U R E T S U L C T L
S A B N P E I P L R O T E A S
N L Z T H E O R E T I C A L E
O I M N C X R T A Y E J K U N
I D A E R Q G I F N T L O P S
T T Y U L T N E M G D U J O I
P K T C E P M R A E A O N P T
M E J E A O M U S I N T M S I
U L O N E V J A K I K T L F V
S W E S S T I M S I A M A L I
S G E U P B A R E P O I E L T
A C Y S T C O U P F R A N D Y
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Unit 9 Study Guide
Skill Description Example
Determine if a decision is
based on theoretical
probability, experimental
probability, or subjective
judgment.
Is the decision based on:
results of a survey or
experiment,
theoretical probability, or
personal thoughts or
feelings?
Bronwyn takes her umbrella to
school today because, despite the
sunny weather forecast, she is
sure it is going to rain.
This is a decision based on
subjective judgment.
Identify potential problems
with data collection.
Consider:
timing
privacy
cultural sensitivity
cost
time
use of language
Martin surveys the students
in his class to find out what
costume they will wear for
Halloween. He conducts the
survey in March.
There are 2 potential problems:
The survey is insensitive to those
who do not celebrate Halloween.
The timing of the survey is
wrong. Halloween is in October.
Decide whether to use
a census or survey to
collect data.
When the population is
large, it is often too costly
or time consuming to
survey the entire population
(a census), so we collect
data from a portion of the
population (a sample).
To find out the favourite Olympic
event of students in his class, Ali
surveyed all of his classmates.
Ali conducted a census because
the population (Alis classmates)
is not large.
Decide if a sample would
provide valid conclusions.
Ask:
is the sample size
appropriate?
does the sample represent
the population?
To find out the favourite NHL
hockey team of Canadians,
Jocelyn surveyed all residents
of Calgary.
Most residents of Calgary would
choose the Calgary Flames. The
sample does not represent all
Canadians.
Identify which sampling
method was used to
collect data.
simple random sampling
systematic sampling
cluster sampling
self-selected sampling
convenience sampling
stratified random
sampling
Every 5th car entering the
parking lot was stopped.
(systematic sampling)
The names of all team members
were put in a hat and 5 names
were drawn. (simple random
sampling)
MMS9_Prep book_UnitBM.qxp 7/8/09 4:45 PM Page 375
1. Explain how this decision is based on theoretical probability, experimental
probability, or subjective judgment.
Craig observed his hamster for a science project.
His hamster ran on the wheel at 3:00 P.M. on each of
the last four days. Craig predicts his hamster
will run on the wheel at 3:00 P.M. on the fifth day.
Circle the statement that best describes how Craig made
his prediction.
Craig made his prediction based on the results of a
survey or experiment.
Craig made his prediction based on theoretical probability.
Craig made his prediction based on his personal thoughts or feelings.
Explain your thinking.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
2. What assumptions are being made?
The mayor won each of the last two elections. So, Carrie is sure the mayor
will win the election this year.
Assumptions:
________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
376
9.1
3. a) Identify a potential problem with this survey.
To find out how many students will need help completing their high school
course-selection forms in February, the guidance department surveys all
Grade 9 students in September.
Is there a problem with cost?
______
Is there a problem with timing?
______
Is there a problem with privacy or cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain your thinking.
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
b) Describe how the problem could be avoided.
__________________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________________
9.2
Unit 9 Review

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377
9.3
4. Explain why this survey might be problematic.
a) A tourist attraction employs 500 students for the summer. They want to find
out how much money students save from each pay cheque. They plan to
survey each student as he or she is given the next pay cheque.
Is there a problem with time or cost?
______
Is there a problem with privacy?
______
Is there a problem with cultural sensitivity?
______
Explain. _______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
b) Describe how the problem could be avoided.
______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
5. Should a sample or a census be used to collect the data?
a) A car manufacturer is switching to a new battery provider.
The manufacturer wants to test the new batteries to make sure
they are reliable in very cold weather.
Would it take a long time to test each battery?
______
Would it cost a lot of money to test each battery?
______
Should a sample or a census be used?
__________
b) The Canadian Standards Association wants to survey approximately
2000 people in Alberta who purchased a defective child car seat.
Would it take a long time to survey each person who purchased
a defective car seat?
______
Could using a defective child car seat lead to a serious problem?
______
Is it important that each of the purchasers be notified?
______
Should a sample or a census be used?
___________
6. A sample was used to collect these data. Do you think the conclusions
would be valid? Explain.
To find out if a local swimming pool should extend its hours, all people who
use the pool before noon on weekdays were surveyed.
Do you think most people who use the pool in the morning would care
whether the pool was open later on a night?
______
Do you think the conclusions would be valid?
______
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9.4 7. Identify the sampling method used for each survey.
a) Ten students from each class are chosen to participate in a survey about
the eating habits of teenagers.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
b) A market researcher wants to find out the favourite brand of sunglasses of
beach goers. He surveys people who walk in front of his deck chair as he
sits on the beach.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
8. Identify a potential problem with this sampling method.
To find out whether more residents of Vancouver drive an American-made car
or an import, every 5th person entering a Ford dealership was surveyed.
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________________________
9. Which sampling method do you think is better? Why?
Martina wants to find out whether residents would like to see more parks built.
Method A: Survey all families with children under 10.
Method B: Randomly survey every 50th person in the local phone book.
Method A: Do families with young children often go to a park?
______
Who do you think is more likely to want more parks built: families
with young children or people without children?
____________________
_________________________________________________________________
Do people with pets often use a park?
______
Is the sample representative of all residents?
______
Method B: Does each resident have an equal chance of being
surveyed?
______
Is the sample representative of all residents?
______
Better method:
____________
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