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Formula and Normal Distribution Tabulation For PERT Calculations

This document provides information and tables for calculating probabilities using the normal distribution in PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) analysis. It defines the standard deviation of a project duration and how to calculate it. It also explains how to calculate the normal variant using the standard deviation and duration estimates. Tables with z-values and their corresponding probabilities are given to look up probabilities or interpolate between values using a provided formula.

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Tan Tan
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30 views

Formula and Normal Distribution Tabulation For PERT Calculations

This document provides information and tables for calculating probabilities using the normal distribution in PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) analysis. It defines the standard deviation of a project duration and how to calculate it. It also explains how to calculate the normal variant using the standard deviation and duration estimates. Tables with z-values and their corresponding probabilities are given to look up probabilities or interpolate between values using a provided formula.

Uploaded by

Tan Tan
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Formula and Normal Distribution tabulation for PERT calculations.

The standard deviation of the project duration (TE),

is calculated as:

(Summation of the i of all activities in the critical path)

The normal variant may be calculated as:


T TE

Knowing , the probability can be read from the Normal Distribution Tables
attached.

Where interpolation from the table is required, the probability value may
Derived as follows: -

1 + Z Z1 (2 - 1)
Z2 Z1

Where 1 is the probability value for Z1 and 2 the probability value for Z2.

Z
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5

Probability
.5000
.5398
.5793
.6179
.6554
.6915
.7257
.7580
.7881
.8159
.8413
.8643
.8849
.9032
.9192
.9332

Z
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
>3.0

Probability
.9452
.9554
.9641
.9713
.9772
.9821
.9861
.9893
.9918
.9938
.9953
.9965
.9974
.9981
.9987
1

Normal Distribution Table for Positive Values of Z.

Z
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5

Probability
.5000
.4602
.4207
.3821
.3446
.3085
.2743
.2420
.2119
.1841
.1587
.1357
.1151
.0968
.0808
.0668

Z
-1.6
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0
-2.1
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8
-2.9
- 3.0
>-3.0

Probability
.0548
.0446
.0359
.0287
.0228
.0179
.0139
.0107
.0082
.0062
.0047
.0035
.0026
.0019
.0013
0

Normal Distribution Table for Negative Values of Z.

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