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Probability and Statistics Hints/Solutions To Test Set 4: P P P P P P P

1. This document provides hints and solutions to test problems related to probability and statistics. It includes solutions to problems involving binomial distributions, normal distributions, conditional probability, and other statistical concepts. 2. Sample problems are solved involving determining probabilities associated with numbers of successful missile hits, component failures in systems, viral infection rates, and other scenarios that can be modeled using probability distributions. 3. Formulas are provided for calculating probabilities using concepts like the binomial distribution, normal distribution, conditional probability, and Bayes' theorem. Parameters of distributions are estimated to satisfy given probability requirements.

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ravi.btech20023935
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21 views

Probability and Statistics Hints/Solutions To Test Set 4: P P P P P P P

1. This document provides hints and solutions to test problems related to probability and statistics. It includes solutions to problems involving binomial distributions, normal distributions, conditional probability, and other statistical concepts. 2. Sample problems are solved involving determining probabilities associated with numbers of successful missile hits, component failures in systems, viral infection rates, and other scenarios that can be modeled using probability distributions. 3. Formulas are provided for calculating probabilities using concepts like the binomial distribution, normal distribution, conditional probability, and Bayes' theorem. Parameters of distributions are estimated to satisfy given probability requirements.

Uploaded by

ravi.btech20023935
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability and Statistics

Hints/Solutions to Test Set 4


6 3 6
+
2 1 3 65
1. P(Ruby
wins) =
.
=
84
9

3
2. Suppose n missiles are fired and X is the number of successful hits. Then
X~
Bin(n, 0.75). We want n such that3 P(X
) 0.9 5, or
P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 3) 0.05. This is equivalent to 10(9n 2 3n + 2) 4n .
The smallest value of n for which this is satisfied is n =6.
3. Let Pn denote the probability of an n-component system to operate effectively.
6
Then P3 =1 (1 p )3 and P 6 =1 (1 p )6 p (1 p )5 . Now
1
P6 P3 =
p (1 p )3 (5 p 2 9 p + 3) ,

which is > 0, if p >


4.

9 21
0.4417.
10

P(returning a pack) = P(X > 1) = 1 P(X = 0) P(X = 1)


= 1 (0.99)10 10(0.99) 9 (0.01), say.
Let Y denote the number of packs returned. Then Y ~ Bin(3, p).
P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) = 0.9999455.

5.
P(Y 1000
j)
=
=

e 5 5 j
,=
j 0, 1, , 9,
j!

e 5 5 j
, j 10.
=

j!
j =10
6. Let A be the event that person gets a viral infection and B denote the event that
the he/she follows the new health regime. Let X be the number of times an
individual
contracts
the
viral
infection
in
a
year.
Then
C
X | B ~ P(1), and X | B ~ P(5).
C
C
P(A C |=
B) P(X
= 0 |=
B) e 1. P(A C | B
=
) P(X
= 0|B
=
) e 5 .
3
Using Bayes Theorem P(B=
| AC ) =
0.9939.
3 + e 4

7. Let X be the number of defects. Then X ~ P(300). Ley Y be the number of defects
in 5% of the pages. Then Y ~ P(3). The required probability is P(Y 2) = 0.4232.
8. Use geometrical probability.
9. Let X denote the life in months of a machine. Then P(X > 200) = e-2. Let
Y denote the number of machines working after 200 months. Then
Y ~ Bin (20, e-2). So P(Y 2) = 07746.

1
4
10. P ( X > 6 = P)( X > 6 | I ) P( I ) + P( X > 6 | II ) P( II )= e 1. + e 3 . .
5
5
n

11 . P(system fails before time t) =


1 exp{t 2 i }.
i =1

P(only component j fails before time t| system fails before time t)


n

(1-exp{-2 j t}) exp{t 2 i }


=

i =1
i j

1 exp{t 2 }

i =1

12. Here, r = 4, = 1 / 5, Re qd Pr ob = 0.3528.


13. P(X 6 | X 5) =
0.9 gives = 0.0253.
P ( X > 8 ) = exp{0.0253 82 } = 0.198.
14.
= 58.13, = 10.26, Percentage of students getting grade B is 37.86,
Percentage of students getting grade C is 47.14.
15. Let X denote the diameter (in cm). Then X ~ N(3, 0.0052).
P ( chalk piece is defective ) = 1 P(2.99 < X < 3.01)

= 2 (2) = 0.0455.
16. P(4.95 < X < 5.05) = P(1.66 < Z < 1.66) = 2 (1.66) 1 = 0.903.
So the percentage of defectives = 100 *0.097 = 9.7%.
When X ~ N(5.0, 2 ), then P(4.95 < X < 5.05) 0.99 is equivalent to
(0.05/) 0.995, or 0.00194.
17. Let X denote the distance (in cm.) that athlete jumps.
Then X ~ N(800, 100). Let c be such that P(X > c) =0.95.
Then (800 c) / 10 = 1.645 and so c = 783.55 cm.
Further let d be such that P( X > d) = 0.1.
Then (800 d)/10 = 1. 28 and so d = 812.80 cm.
18. Let X denote the marks. Then X ~ N(74, 62.41).
Ans. (a) 64 (b) 86 (c) 77
19. ln Y ~ N(0.8, 0.01). So P(Y > 2.7) = P(ln Y > 0.9933) = P(Z > 1.93) = 0.0268.
Let c be such that P(0.8 c < ln Y < 0.8 + c) =
0.95. This is equivalent to
c
c
c
P(
<Z<
)=
0.95, or =
=
c 0.196. Therefore
0.975, so
0.1
0.1
0.1
P(1.8294 < Y < 2.7074) =
0.95.

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