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BASS Simulation Sundar

The document simulates the diffusion of an innovation over time using different values for the coefficients "p" and "q" in the Bass diffusion model. It shows sales and cumulative sales forecasts for varying populations (N) between 87 and 103,000,000 with p and q values ranging from 0.01 to 0.753. The simulations illustrate how adjusting the coefficients impacts the sales curve from a slow, steady diffusion to a rapid early adoption followed by slower growth.

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SanajiAji
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
25 views

BASS Simulation Sundar

The document simulates the diffusion of an innovation over time using different values for the coefficients "p" and "q" in the Bass diffusion model. It shows sales and cumulative sales forecasts for varying populations (N) between 87 and 103,000,000 with p and q values ranging from 0.01 to 0.753. The simulations illustrate how adjusting the coefficients impacts the sales curve from a slow, steady diffusion to a rapid early adoption followed by slower growth.

Uploaded by

SanajiAji
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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SIMULATION of

p and q
103,000,000 N
0.0039 p
0.753 q

25000000
20000000
15000000
SALES

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


Year
Sales
Cum. Sales
1989
0
0
1990
401,700
401,700
1991
701,434
1,103,134
1992
1,219,161
2,322,295
1993
2,101,904
4,424,199
1994
3,572,772
7,996,971
1995
5,924,702
13,921,673
1996
9,413,520
23,335,193
1997
13,901,200
37,236,393
1998
18,158,867
55,395,259
1999
19,464,483
74,859,743
2000
15,510,223
90,369,966
2001
8,393,490
98,763,455
2002
3,075,426
101,838,882
2003
868,994
102,707,876
2004
220,485
102,928,361
2005
54,186
102,982,547
2006
13,208
102,995,755
2007
3,213
102,998,968
2008
781
102,999,749
2009
190
102,999,939
2010
46
102,999,985
2011
11
102,999,996
2012
3
102,999,999
2013
1
103,000,000
2014
0
103,000,000
2015
0
103,000,000
2016
0
103,000,000
2017
0
103,000,000
2018
0
103,000,000
2019
0
103,000,000
2020
0
103,000,000
2021
0
103,000,000
2022
0
103,000,000
2023
0
103,000,000
2024
103,000,000
2025
103,000,000
2026
103,000,000
2027
103,000,000
2028
103,000,000
2029
103,000,000

Impact of "p" and

10000000
5000000
0
YEAR

2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000

Impact of "p" and "q"


120000000
100000000
80000000
60000000
Sales

40000000
Cum. Sales
20000000
0

YEAR

25000000

120000000

100000000

20000000

80000000
15000000
60000000
10000000

Sales

Cum. Sales
40000000

5000000

20000000

0
0
Year 198 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 200 200
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4

SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N
0.0039 p
0.0753 q

2500000

2000000

1500000
SALES

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


Year
Sales
Cum. Sales
1989
0
0
1990
401,700
401,700
1991
430,263
831,963
1992
460,596
1,292,560
1993
492,767
1,785,327
1994
526,842
2,312,169
1995
562,880
2,875,050
1996
600,936
3,475,985
1997
641,052
4,117,037
1998
683,265
4,800,302
1999
727,596
5,527,898
2000
774,052
6,301,950
2001
822,625
7,124,575
2002
873,286
7,997,861
2003
925,984
8,923,845
2004
980,644
9,904,489
2005
1,037,164
10,941,653
2006
1,095,411
12,037,063
2007
1,155,221
13,192,285
2008
1,216,397
14,408,681
2009
1,278,703
15,687,384
2010
1,341,868
17,029,252
2011
1,405,582
18,434,834
2012
1,469,499
19,904,333
2013
1,533,233
21,437,566
2014
1,596,366
23,033,932
2015
1,658,446
24,692,378
2016
1,718,994
26,411,371
2017
1,777,508
28,188,879
2018
1,833,470
30,022,349
2019
1,886,354
31,908,703
2020
1,935,633
33,844,336
2021
1,980,792
35,825,128
2022
2,021,332
37,846,461
2023
2,056,789
39,903,249
2024
2,086,735
41,989,984
2025
2,110,796
44,100,780
2026
2,128,657
46,229,437
2027
2,140,072
48,369,509
2028
2,144,869
50,514,379
2029
2,142,959
52,657,337

Impact of "p" and "

1000000

500000

0
YEAR

2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

2,134,332
2,119,066
2,097,320
2,069,333
2,035,415
1,995,945
1,951,359
1,902,137
1,848,798
1,791,885
1,731,955
1,669,567
1,605,275
1,539,615
1,473,101
1,406,217

54,791,670
56,910,736
59,008,056
61,077,389
63,112,804
65,108,749
67,060,108
68,962,244
70,811,042
72,602,927
74,334,881
76,004,448
77,609,723
79,149,338
80,622,440
82,028,656

Impact of "p" and "q"


90000000
80000000
70000000
60000000
50000000
40000000
Sales

Cum. Sales
30000000
20000000
10000000
0

YEAR

SIMULATION of
p and q
103,000,000 N
N= [-b - sqrt(b^2-4ca)]/2c =
0.359 p Hi
p= a/N =
0.0043 q Low
q= b+p =
results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2
Year
Predicted Sales Predicted Cum. Sales
1989
0
0
1990
36,977,000
36,977,000
1991
23,804,177
60,781,177
1992
15,263,686
76,044,863
1993
9,762,468
85,807,331
1994
6,233,756
92,041,088
1995
3,976,359
96,017,447
1996
2,534,726
98,552,173
1997
1,615,070
100,167,243
1998
1,028,806
101,196,048
1999
655,240
101,851,288
2000
417,272
102,268,560
2001
265,710
102,534,270
2002
169,191
102,703,461
2003
107,729
102,811,190
2004
68,593
102,879,783
2005
43,674
102,923,457
2006
27,808
102,951,265
2007
17,705
102,968,970
2008
11,273
102,980,243
2009
7,178
102,987,421
2010
4,570
102,991,991
2011
2,910
102,994,901
2012
1,853
102,996,753
2013
1,180
102,997,933
2014
751
102,998,684
2015
478
102,999,162
2016
304
102,999,466
2017
194
102,999,660
2018
123
102,999,784
2019
79
102,999,862
2020
50
102,999,912
2021
32
102,999,944
2022
20
102,999,964
2023
13
102,999,977
2024
8
102,999,986
2025
5
102,999,991
2026
3
102,999,994
2027
2
102,999,996
2028
1
102,999,998
2029
1
102,999,998

2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

102,999,999
102,999,999
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000
103,000,000

Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations


Varying Values of "p" and "q" (p>>q)
40000000

120000000

35000000

100000000

Sales

30000000
80000000

25000000
20000000

60000000

15000000

40000000

10000000
20000000

5000000
0

0
Y1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
e99999999999000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
a89999999999000000000011111111112222222222333333333344444
r 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4Year
567890123456789012345678901234
Predicted Sales

Predicted Cum. Sales

SIMULATION of
p and q
87 N
0.01 p
0.38 q

10
9
8
7
6
SALES

results check: S(t+1) = p*N + (q-p)*Q(t) - (q/N)*Q(t)^2


Year
Sales
Cum. Sales
1989
0
0
1990
1
1
1991
1
2
1992
2
4
1993
2
6
1994
3
9
1995
4
12
1996
5
17
1997
6
23
1998
7
30
1999
8
38
2000
9
47
2001
9
56
2002
8
64
2003
7
70
2004
5
76
2005
4
80
2006
3
82
2007
2
84
2008
1
85
2009
1
86
2010
0
86
2011
0
87
2012
0
87
2013
0
87
2014
0
87
2015
0
87
2016
0
87
2017
0
87
2018
0
87
2019
0
87
2020
0
87
2021
0
87
2022
0
87
2023
0
87
2024
0
87
2025
0
87
2026
0
87
2027
0
87
2028
0
87
2029
0
87

ODI- Contact Lenses: Impact o

5
4
3
2
1
0

Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1

YEAR

2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87
87

act Lenses: Impact of "p" and "q"


90
80
70
60
50
40
Sales

Cum. Sales

30
20
10
0

993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

YEAR

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