INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

WORLD ESTIMATES

www.igc.int

Grain

Market
Report

GMR 458 27 August 2015

12/13

13/14

14/15
est.

15/16
f'cast
30.07
27.08

million tons

TOTAL GRAINS a)
1795

2006

2015

1970

271

310

322

312

314

1818

1936

1977

1978

1985

Carryover stocks

337

407

445

435

447

year/year change

-23

70

38

Major exporters b)

99

121

145

130

139

Production

655

714

720

710

720

Trade

142

156

153

150

148

Consumption

677

696

707

712

716

Carryover stocks

171

188

202

201

206

year/year change

-21

18

14

Major exporters b)

51

55

65

64

68

Production
Trade
Consumption

1988

WHEAT

MAIZE (CORN)

HIGHLIGHTS
At 1,988m t, the forecast for world total grains (wheat and coarse
grains) production is increased by 18m m/m (month-on-month), but
is still down by 1% compared to last years record. While much of
this months upgrade is tied to larger than expected wheat and
barley crops in the CIS and the EU, projections for US sorghum and
maize are also lifted from July. Following reports of worse than
anticipated drought damage, estimates for maize in the EU and
Ukraine and spring wheat in Canada are lowered from before.
Global consumption is seen 7m t higher than in July, at 1,985m, with
use for human food, feed and industrial processing each expected at
new records. Opening stocks are seen larger than before and, with
not all of the growth in supplies absorbed by increased demand, the
world carryover projection is raised by 12m t, to 447m, up almost 1%
y/y (year-on-year). Owing to upward revisions for maize and
sorghum, world grains trade is forecast 2m t higher m/m. However,
with imports of wheat and barley slowing, total grain shipments may
decline by 2% y/y.

Production

866

997

1003

966

968

Trade

100

122

125

123

126

Consumption

863

950

978

972

972

Carryover stocks

131

178

202

195

198

year/year change

47

24

Major exporters c)

33

51

66

54

58

12/13

Reflecting an upgrade for the US, the projection of world soyabean

production in 2015/16 is raised by about 2m t, to 318m, only
fractionally below the previous years record. However, due to a
reduction in opening stocks and an increased forecast for total use,
aggregate end-season inventories are placed nearly 4m t lower than
in July, albeit still up marginally y/y and a fresh record. Trade is lifted
slightly to a new peak of 125m t, but the outlook is tentative given
heightened economic worries in China, the worlds biggest buyer.

14/15
f'cast

15/16
proj.
30.07
27.08

million tons (milled basis)

RICE
473

478

479

480

38

43

43

42

42

Consumption

469

479

485

489

488

Carryover stocks

96

97

Production
Trade

479

113

112

106

year/year change

-1

-5

Major exporters d)

40

38

31

20

22

-9

million tons

SOYABEANS
272

285

322

316

318

99

113

122

124

125

267

281

310

314

317

Carryover stocks

28

31

43

48

44

year/year change

12

Major exporters e)

12

24

32

29

Production
Trade
Consumption

The projection of global rice output in 2015/16 is trimmed but, at

479m t, would broadly match the previous years record. Carry-in
stocks are placed higher than in July and, with total use little
changed, aggregate carryovers are lifted by 0.9m t, to 96.9m.
Nevertheless, this would still equate to a y/y decline of 9% and be
the smallest in six seasons, mainly on a drop in leading exporters. At
42m t, world trade is anticipated to remain high in 2016 on demand
from buyers in Africa and Asia.

13/14
est.

-4

Figures may not add due to rounding

a) Wheat and coarse grains
b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US
c) Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
d) India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam
e) Argentina, Brazil, US

IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)

350

Jan 2000 = 100

300

250

200

With pressure from mostly favourable crop prospects compounded

by concerns about the global economy, the IGC Grains and
Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 5% m/m.

2015

2014

2010-14 range

150
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb

Sep

Nov

Dec

GMR 458 27 August 2015

IGC

447m t, up fractionally y/y. While carryovers of wheat,

barley, sorghum and oats are expected to increase,
maize inventories are seen retreating slightly from last
years levels.

OVERVIEW

Mainly reflecting expectations for a smaller

2015/16 maize crop, world grain production is
forecast to fall by 1% y/y. Following this months
upgrades, wheat and barley harvests are seen
broadly unchanged y/y.

Despite a slight tightening in the maize carryover,

global grain stocks are forecast at 447m t, a 29year peak.

Grains trade is likely to remain well above recent

averages but, led by a drop in wheat and barley
sales, overall volumes may decline by 2% y/y.

World rice trade is projected to stay historically

high in 2016, with China again the biggest buyer
owing to large domestic-export price premiums.

Global soyabean carryovers are anticipated to

edge up to a new peak as accumulation in the US
more than offsets declines elsewhere, including
in Argentina and Brazil.

Trade in the year ending June 2016 is forecast to be

down by 2% y/y. As China has recently been a heavy
importer of feedstuffs, including sorghum, barley and
DDG, traders are wary of potential changes to state
support mechanisms, which could alter buying patterns.
The 2015/16 world rice outturn is seen broadly matching
the previous years record, although prospects remain
tentative, especially due to ongoing weather worries.
With population growth set to support a further
expansion of uptake, global end-season inventories are
projected to fall by 9%, to 96.9m t the smallest in six
years and almost entirely due to a contraction in key
exporters. Trade is expected to remain high in 2016 on
demand from buyers in Africa and Asia. Thailands
volumes are seen surpassing those of India as it
reclaims its status as the worlds biggest exporter.
Assuming bumper crops in leading producers, 2015/16
global soyabean output is seen falling only fractionally
from the previous years record, mainly on reduced
yields. While consumption is likely to expand further,
albeit at a slower rate, world carryovers are seen posting
a gentle y/y rise. Within the total, major exporters stocks
are projected to record a 16% y/y rise as accumulation in
the US more than offsets declines in Argentina and
Brazil. Trade is likely to increase slightly, to 125m t, on
growth in demand from Chinas huge feed sector, but the
outlook is highly uncertain amid deepening worries about
economic prospects. Owing to disappointing crops in the
EU and Canada, world rapeseed/canola output in
2015/16 is seen falling by 9% y/y.

Total grains: Supply and demand summary

mt

Opening stocks
Production
Total supply
Total use
of which: Food
Feed
Industrial
Closing stocks
a)
major exporters
Trade (Jul/Jun)

12/13

13/14

y/y
14/15 15/16
(est.) (f'cast) change

360
1,795
2,154
1,818
633
773
299
337
99
271

337
2,006
2,343
1,936
648
844
317
407
121
310

407
2,015
2,422
1,977
656
870
323
445
145
322

445
1,988
2,432
1,985
664
872
327
447
139
314

+ 9.2%
- 1.3%
+ 0.4%
+ 0.4%
+ 1.2%
+ 0.3%
+ 1.3%
+ 0.5%
- 3.9%
- 2.4%

M A R K E T S U M M A RY

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production

is forecast to be slightly smaller y/y. Although sorghum
output is pegged at a near 20-year high and wheat,
barley and oats harvests are forecast to show little
overall change, reductions in both area and yields are
seen resulting in a 3% contraction in the global maize
crop. With a large carryover from the previous season,
total supplies are projected to increase by around 10m t
to a new all-time high.

After initially posting gains in early August, global grains

and oilseeds values mostly weakened in the period
since, led by losses in soyabeans and wheat amid
prospects for bumper availabilities. More recently,
outside markets weighed, with concerns about global
economic growth adding to bearish sentiment. The IGC
GOI fell by 5% over the month.
IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI)*

Global consumption is expected to expand slightly, but

with growth less pronounced when compared to recent
averages. In contrast to the last few years, the rise in
2015/16 demand is forecast to be mainly driven by
growing human food needs. While use for livestock
feeding will also increase, staying at very high levels,
smaller crops are likely to cap uptake in the EU and the
US.
End-season grain stocks in 2015/16 (aggregate of
respective local marketing years) are now placed at

GMR 458

Change**

y/y
change

IGC GOI

185

- 4.8%

- 20.2%

Wheat sub-Index
Maize sub-Index
Barley sub-Index
Rice sub-Index
Soyabeans sub-Index

168
176
183
152
180

- 4.3%
- 1.0%
- 4.2%
- 2.9%
- 6.7%

- 23.0%
- 7.4%
- 16.3%
- 18.8%
- 23.8%

*Jan 2000=100, **Change vs. GMR 457

IGC

GMR 458 27 August 2015

The IGC GOI rice sub-Index posted a net decline of

some 3% since late July as firm competition among
exporters for limited business, coupled with currency
movements, weighed. Quotations for 5% broken in
Thailand were at their lowest since November 2007.

Wheat: GOI sub-Index

Jan 2000 = 100

360

320

Soyabeans: GOI sub-Index

280

Jan 2000 = 100

240

360

200

320

160

280

2010-14 range

2014

2015
120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

240

Dec

200

World wheat export values were weighed by seasonal

harvest pressure and growing expectations for a record
global outturn. With limited fresh international demand
adding to bearish sentiment, the IGC GOI wheat subindex declined by around 4% m/m.

160

2015

2010-14 range

2014

120
Jan

Maize: GOI sub-Index

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

Centred on falls in the US, the IGC GOI soyabeans subIndex recorded a net drop of almost 7% as prospects for
heavy global supplies pressured. Adding to the bearish
tone were signs of slowing economic growth in China
and associated worries about prospects for import
demand. Declines in South America, notably in Brazil,
were capped by firm buying interest.

Jan 2000 = 100

360

320

280

240

More detailed analysis, including US dollar fob export

prices and commentary on other grains and oilseeds
markets is included within the report.

200

160

2015

GMR CONTENTS

2010-14 range

2014

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

Wheat 4
Durum 7
Maize 8
Barley 11

Average global maize values were marginally weaker

over the month. While fundamentals and external
influences were generally bearish, worries about US
Midwest yield potential offered some support. In South
America, by contrast, values were marginally firmer,
underpinned by solid export demand, notably in Brazil.

Other coarse grains13

Rice...16
Oilseeds 19

Ocean Freight Market 25

National Policy & Other Developments... 26

Rice: GOI sub-Index

Market Focus / Special Features

Jan 2000 = 100

240

Maize: Update on China price support policies 9

Rice: Recent large purchases by China 17

220

Rice: Update on monsoon season18

Soyabeans: 2015/16 crop prospects in Brazil21

200

Rapeseed: Tentative 2016/17 crop prospects in Ukraine23

Quarterly Updates (pdf version only)

180

Industrial use of grains

160

World trade in wheat flour

Tables 28

140

2015

2010-14 range

2014

IGC 2015

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS#

Opening Production Imports
stocks

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial
Feed

Total a)

Million tons
Exports Closing
stocks

TOTAL GRAINS
Argentina **
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

3.3
6.1
8.1

50.9
50.4
45.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

(49.1)

Australia **
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

6.7
6.4
5.9

37.6
35.3
38.0

(6.1)

(37.8)

8.1
14.9
9.7

66.2
51.1
47.9

54.1
56.5
53.6

4.6
4.9
4.9

14.5
12.4
11.8

23.5
21.5
20.6

24.6
26.9
27.0

6.1
8.1
6.0

(12.7)

(21.5)

(28.8)

(6.9)

7.7
6.1
7.8

11.7
10.2
11.9

26.1
25.7
26.0

6.4
5.9
6.0

(7.9)

(12.0)

(25.8)

(6.1)

19.4
18.5
18.3

30.0
29.2
29.2

30.2
29.2
22.9

14.9
9.7
6.8

(18.2)

(29.1)

(26.0)

35.0
35.9
36.1

160.6
168.1
164.4

273.2
281.6
278.8

44.5
53.6
45.0

25.3
30.4
29.7

(36.4)

(163.1)

(278.1)

(46.1)

(30.0)

0.2
0.2
0.2

4.0
4.5
4.2

9.0
10.0
9.2

8.8
6.4
6.9

2.3
3.0
4.4

(4.0)

(9.0)

32.0
35.1
36.0

66.0
68.3
68.7

24.8
30.6
31.0

7.9
11.1
10.1

(35.2)

(67.9)

(28.9)

(8.1)

15.4
15.6
15.9

28.3
28.0
28.0

32.2
34.8
30.9

7.3
7.9
7.2

(15.2)

(27.2)

(29.8)

(6.2)

164.7
164.7
166.6

139.9
142.3
141.4

339.6
342.3
343.4

86.9
80.1
81.9

50.4
68.4
68.7

(165.5)

(138.8)

(339.8)

2.6
2.8
2.9

(57.2)

0.0
0.0
0.0

44.3
41.7
43.9

2.2
2.2
2.3

0.8
0.8
0.8

Canada
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.8
2.1
1.3

(50.9)

75.1
68.1
58.9

3.2
3.2
3.2

6.1
6.0
6.1

(61.9)

EU*
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Kazakhstan
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

21.8
25.3
30.4

300.7
323.6
302.9

20.4
16.7
20.2

343.0
365.7
353.5

(30.1)

(305.8)

(18.3)

(354.2)

2.6
2.3
3.0

17.5
16.6
17.3

0.0
0.4
0.2

20.0
19.3
20.5

(3.1)

(16.5)

8.7
7.9
11.1

88.7
101.5
98.1

1.2
0.5
0.7

98.6
109.9
109.8

15.9
16.3
16.4

(11.5)

(92.6)

(0.8)

(104.9)

(16.3)

5.3
7.3
7.9

62.4
63.5
58.1

0.1
0.0
0.0

67.8
70.7
66.1

7.3
7.1
7.2

(8.2)

(54.9)

(63.2)

(7.1)

43.1
50.4
68.4

425.6
432.6
418.6

8.2
7.8
6.9

476.9
490.8
493.9

32.2
32.5
32.6

(68.6)

(408.6)

(6.8)

(484.1)

99.5
120.5
144.5

1,049.6
1,074.6
1,026.4

30.8
27.7
29.4

1,179.9
1,222.8
1,200.3

131.3
132.3
132.8

214.7
216.0
218.0

393.6
402.5
399.8

781.3
791.0
789.8

278.1
287.3
271.6

120.5
144.5
139.0

(145.5)

(1016.2)

(27.5)

(1189.2)

(132.7)

(217.3)

(395.1)

(784.6)

(274.2)

(130.5)

123.0
144.2
160.3

348.1
349.3
361.9

18.9
24.6
21.7

490.0
518.2
543.9

96.5
96.1
95.8

58.7
62.5
64.8

169.2
178.4
182.8

344.8
357.0
364.4

1.0
0.9
1.1

144.2
160.3
178.4

(158.8)

(360.7)

(20.9)

(540.4)

(181.8)

(363.4)

25.7
20.5
19.6

136.6
136.2
131.8

0.1
0.3
0.6

162.4
156.9
152.0

15.0
15.7
16.2

131.6
132.0
135.8

(0.8)

(152.3)

63.5
63.6
63.9

2.5
2.5
2.5

(19.8)

(3.9)

Russia
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

4.6
4.6
4.5

Ukraine
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.9
0.9
0.9

USA
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

(62.4)

China
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

(175.8)

India
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

99.9
101.6
104.5

4.4
4.9
5.1

10.4
5.4
3.0

20.5
19.6
13.2
(13.5)

c)

c)

336.5
407.0
444.6

2,006.4
2,014.7
1,987.7

310.1
321.6
314.0

2,342.9
2,421.7
2,432.3

647.6
656.2
664.3

316.7
322.7
326.8

844.4
870.1
872.4

1,936.0
1,977.1
1,985.3

310.1
321.6
314.0

407.0
444.6
447.0

(443.7)

(1969.5)

(311.9)

(2413.3)

(661.7)

(325.9)

(868.7)

(1978.2)

(311.9)

(435.1)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT#

Opening Production Imports
stocks
d)

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial
Feed

Total a)

Million tons
Exports Closing
d)
stocks

WHEAT
Argentina (Dec/Nov)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.2
1.7
4.1

9.2
13.9
10.9

0.0
0.0
0.0

(12.5)

Australia (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

5.6
5.7
5.3

25.3
23.7
25.5

5.1
10.4
6.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.4
0.4
0.4

5.2
5.7
5.5

31.0
29.4
30.8

1.9
1.9
2.0

0.5
0.5
0.5

3.6
3.6
4.0

6.7
6.7
7.1

2.5
5.8
5.8

1.7
4.1
3.7

(7.0)

(4.1)

18.6
17.5
18.4

5.7
5.3
5.3

(31.0)

37.5
29.3
25.5

0.1
0.1
0.1

(28.0)

EU* (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

4.2
4.5
4.5

(16.6)

(5.5)

Canada (Aug/Jul)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

9.4
15.6
15.0

42.6
39.7
32.2

(5.5)

2.9
2.9
2.9

0.8
0.8
0.8

4.1
4.3
4.5

8.8
9.0
9.2

(34.7)

23.5
24.0
18.5

10.4
6.7
4.5

(21.0)

8.8
9.5
13.7

143.1
156.2
151.9

4.1
6.2
5.3

156.0
171.9
170.8

(13.6)

(148.5)

(5.2)

(167.3)

8.6
9.0
13.2

135.2
149.1
144.0

2.2
3.4
3.5

146.0
161.5
160.7

(13.1)

(140.6)

(3.4)

(157.1)

2.1
1.7
2.4

13.9
13.0
14.0

0.0
0.4
0.2

16.1
15.1
16.6

(2.5)

(13.5)

7.3
6.1
7.5

52.1
59.7
59.0

1.0
0.4
0.4

60.4
66.3
66.9

(7.8)

(55.0)

(0.5)

(63.3)

3.0
3.9
4.7

22.3
24.1
25.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

25.3
28.0
29.7

5.8
5.7
5.8

(4.6)

(22.0)

(26.6)

(5.7)

19.5
16.1
20.5

58.1
55.1
58.5

4.6
3.9
3.4

82.3
75.1
82.4

25.5
25.7
25.7

(3.5)

(82.5)

9.8
11.0
9.4

423.0
441.0
444.4

54.3
54.5
54.7

10.3
10.8
10.5

42.9
50.5
53.5

113.7
121.9
124.9

32.8
36.3
31.3

9.5
13.7
14.6

(10.8)

(49.5)

(121.6)

(31.8)

(13.9)

10.3
10.8
10.5

42.9
50.5
53.5

106.3
114.2
117.4

30.7
34.1
29.1

9.0
13.2
14.2

(10.8)

(49.5)

(114.0)

(29.6)

(13.5)

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.7
2.0
2.0

6.0
6.8
6.4

8.4
5.9
6.5

1.7
2.4
3.8

of which common wheat

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Russia (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
USA (Jun/May)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
China (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

51.7
55.0
64.7

361.5
375.0
370.3

(65.2)

(363.5)

53.7
58.7
64.9

121.9
126.2
127.5

24.2
18.0
17.2

(3.4)

12.9
12.9
13.0

109.6
110.3
110.7

(438.1)

6.7
2.1
1.8

182.4
187.0
194.2

88.0
87.5
87.1

12.4
14.0
14.5

35.8
36.5
37.0

18.5
22.3
22.9

6.1
7.5
6.9

(14.0)

(36.5)

(21.4)

(5.3)

3.5
4.0
4.5

11.9
12.1
12.8

9.5
11.2
12.0

3.9
4.7
4.9

(4.1)

(12.2)

(10.4)

(4.0)

6.2
3.1
5.3

34.2
31.4
33.6

32.0
23.3
24.5

16.1
20.5
24.3

(5.5)

(33.8)

(25.2)

(23.6)

13.8
14.3
14.0

74.8
82.0
88.7

222.3
230.1
236.4

145.7
146.2
139.9

55.0
64.7
68.1

(14.3)

(84.0)

(232.2)

(141.7)

(64.3)

3.2
3.2
3.2

23.0
22.0
22.0

123.3
121.9
121.6

0.3
0.3
0.4

58.7
64.9
72.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.6
0.6
0.6

(193.9)

93.5
95.9
89.0

(17.3)

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

2.2
2.2
2.2

(16.2)

(64.6)

India (Apr/Mar)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

47.3
47.2
47.5

0.0
0.3
0.6

117.7
114.1
106.8

(0.8)

(107.1)

(71.9)

78.5
80.7
82.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

5.0
5.0
5.0

93.7
93.5
95.4

6.0
3.4
0.5

18.0
17.2
10.9
(11.2)

e)

e)

170.9
188.5
202.1

713.7
720.4
720.3

156.3
153.3
148.4

884.7
908.9
922.5

471.9
477.6
484.2

21.5
22.0
21.7

132.9
138.0
143.8

696.2
706.7
716.2

156.3
153.3
148.4

188.5
202.1
206.2

(201.9)

(710.3)

(149.7)

(912.2)

(483.8)

(22.0)

(138.9)

(711.5)

(149.7)

(200.7)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE#

Opening Production Imports
stocks

Total
supply

Food

Use
Industrial
Feed

Total a)

Million tons
Exports Closing
stocks

MAIZE
Argentina (Mar/Feb)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

0.5
1.9
2.8
2.8

32.1
33.0
30.0
26.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0

(28.0)

Brazil (Mar/Feb)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

5.6
9.4
14.8
16.0

81.5
80.1
84.3
78.0

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

0.6
0.8
0.5
0.5

87.7
90.3
99.6
94.5

4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1

64.0
75.6
60.1

15.8
10.0
14.5

85.0
92.2
81.7

(7.0)

(66.9)

(12.7)

(86.6)

South Africa (May/Apr)

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

1.5
0.9
2.4
1.4

12.4
15.0
10.4
13.0

0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0

14.0
15.8
13.3
14.4

5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6

Ukraine (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

1.3
2.5
2.3

30.9
28.5
24.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

32.2
31.0
26.3

0.5
0.5
0.5

(2.7)

(25.0)

China (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Japan (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
#

1.7
1.9
2.2
2.2

9.2
11.7
10.0
8.9

12.1
15.0
13.0
11.8

18.6
17.1
17.0
16.0

1.9
2.8
2.8
2.0

(9.8)

(12.7)

(16.5)

(2.6)

44.5
45.6
47.0
48.5

53.3
54.6
56.1
57.3

24.9
21.0
27.5
22.5

9.4
14.8
16.0
14.7

(22.0)

(14.9)

(94.2)

5.2
6.6
7.2

USA (Sep/Aug)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3

(31.8)

(15.7)

EU* (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

32.6
34.9
32.8
29.8

4.2
4.2
4.2

56.0
60.2
53.0

76.2
81.1
74.1

2.3
4.0
2.0

6.6
7.1
5.6

(56.0)

(77.1)

(3.0)

(6.5)

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

5.0
5.2
5.0
5.6

11.1
11.4
11.2
11.9

2.1
2.0
0.7
1.4

0.9
2.4
1.4
1.1

0.3
0.3
0.3

7.7
8.0
7.3

9.8
9.9
8.9

19.9
18.9
16.5

2.5
2.3
0.9

(7.6)

(9.2)

(17.0)

(1.5)

48.7
47.0
46.5

31.3
45.0
41.0

13.8
14.1
14.5

(27.7)

f)

20.9
31.3
45.0

351.3
361.1
340.0

0.9
0.8
0.8

373.0
393.2
385.8

(45.2)

(332.0)

(0.6)

(377.8)

66.9
82.5
92.2

218.5
215.7
226.0

3.7
4.8
3.0

289.1
303.0
321.2

(91.0)

(225.0)

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

5.1
5.1
5.2

7.3
7.6
7.6

159.5
160.8
162.5

127.9
134.6
130.0

293.0
301.1
298.3

(161.5)

(128.0)

(295.3)

49.0
53.0
55.0

139.8
140.0
144.2

206.4
210.6
217.8

(36.1)

0.2
0.2
0.2

(319.0)

15.4
14.3
14.8

15.9
15.1
15.3

(15.0)

(15.5)

82.5
92.2
103.2
(101.0)

1.1
1.1
1.1

3.4
3.4
3.2

10.4
9.7
10.2

15.2
14.5
14.8

(10.4)

(15.0)

0.0
0.0
0.0

g)

0.8
0.5
0.5

g)

131.4
178.1
202.6

997.3
1,002.7
967.8

121.7
124.6
125.8

1128.6
1180.9
1170.4

107.4
108.3
107.8

257.0
263.2
267.1

549.5
568.1
561.2

950.5
978.3
971.7

121.7
124.6
125.8

178.1
202.6
198.7

(201.2)

(966.0)

(123.1)

(1167.2)

(105.6)

(266.0)

(565.3)

(972.2)

(123.1)

(194.9)

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report.

** Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the
"2013/14" year includes the 2013/14 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2014/15 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize.
a) Including seed and waste.

f) Includes residual.

b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan,

g) IGC July/June trade

Russia, Ukraine, United States

h) Excludes trade in malt

c) Includes trade in malt.

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

d) Including estimated trade in secondary products

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE#

Million tons (milled basis)

Opening

Production

Imports

stocks
India (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

23.4
22.0
16.7

106.7
104.8
104.0

0.0
0.1
0.1

(15.0)

Pakistan (Nov/Oct)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

Total

Total

supply

use a)

130.1
126.9
120.8

97.5
98.9
100.0

Exports

Closing
stocks

10.5
11.4
8.8

(119.1)

22.0
16.7
12.0
(10.3)

0.6
0.8
1.1

6.8
6.9
6.8

0.1
0.1
0.1

7.5
7.8
7.9

2.8
2.8
2.9

3.9
3.9
3.9

0.8
1.1
1.1

13.2
11.8
9.4

20.3
19.0
18.3

0.3
0.2
0.2

33.7
30.9
27.9

11.0
11.5
11.6

10.9
10.0
10.5

11.8
9.4
5.8

(27.7)

(11.5)

(11.0)

(5.2)

8.0
8.9
8.9

4.0
4.1
4.1

3.0
3.2
3.4

1.0
1.5
1.3

(3.5)

(1.2)

6.4
6.3
6.5

1.9
2.2
2.0

Thailand (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

(9.2)

USA (Aug/Jul)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

1.2
1.0
1.5

6.1
7.1
6.5

0.7
0.8
0.8

(6.6)

Vietnam (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

1.4
1.9
2.2

28.0
28.1
27.9

(2.4)

(28.3)

39.7
37.6
30.9

167.9
165.9
163.6

(29.2)

(163.9)

Bangladesh (Jul/Jun)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.6
1.1
1.0

34.4
34.5
35.0

China (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

49.6
50.7
51.7

142.5
144.5
145.6

29.5
30.3
30.3

0.2
0.3
0.2

21.3
21.8
21.9

(30.9)

(2.5)

Total 5 leading exporters b)

2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

Indonesia (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

208.8
204.8
195.8

136.6
139.2
140.5

34.7
34.7
33.1

37.6
30.9
22.3

(194.4)

(140.4)

(33.7)

(20.3)

1.1
0.6
0.8

36.0
36.2
36.8

34.9
35.2
35.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.1
1.0
1.3

3.7
4.5
4.6

195.9
199.6
201.9

144.8
147.5
149.4

0.4
0.4
0.4

50.7
51.7
52.0

(4.2)

(201.4)

(149.0)

1.3
1.4
1.3

3.9
2.5
1.8

36.5
37.1
37.5

1.1
1.3
1.4

41.5
40.9
40.7

39.0
39.1
39.2

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.5
1.8
1.5

1.8
2.1
2.6

11.9
11.9
12.0

1.7
1.7
1.5

15.3
15.7
16.1

13.2
13.1
13.6

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.1
2.6
2.5

113.2
111.8
106.3

477.8
479.1
478.8

43.3
42.6
42.0

591.0
590.9
585.1

479.2
484.6
488.2

43.3
42.6
42.0

111.8
106.3
96.9

(104.6)

(479.8)

(41.8)

(584.4)

(488.5)

(41.8)

(96.0)

Philippines (Jul/Jun)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.
WORLD TOTAL
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.
#

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.

a) Including seed and waste.

b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam.

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS#

Million tons

Opening Production
stocks

Imports

Total
supply

Use
Food

Feed

Exports
Crush

Total a)

Closing
stocks

SOYABEANS
Argentina (Apr/Mar)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.

3.5
7.1
13.0

53.4
61.4
57.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

(13.6)

Brazil (Feb/Jan)
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 proj.

2.0
2.5
5.0

86.1
96.2
98.0

1.9
2.8
3.0

0.6
0.1
0.1

88.7
98.8
103.1

0.0
0.2
0.2

2.6
3.4
3.8

40.4
43.6
45.6

42.4
46.8
48.9

(44.6)

(47.9)

37.8
40.6
42.9

40.5
44.7
47.4

(104.9)

3.8
2.5
6.5

91.4
108.0
105.5

(6.9)

(103.7)

Total 3 major exporters b)

2013/14 est.
9.3
2014/15 f'cast
12.1
24.5
2015/16 proj.

230.9
265.6
260.5

2.0
0.8
0.8

97.2
111.3
112.8

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.2
3.6
3.5

(111.4)

2.6
0.9
0.9

242.9
278.5
285.8

0.0
0.2
0.2

6.7
9.8
10.3

7.1
13.0
12.2
(13.9)

45.7
49.1
51.5

2.5
5.0
4.2

(50.5)

(7.0)

47.9
51.5
50.2

50.1
55.1
53.8

44.6
49.7
46.9

2.5
6.5
12.2

(48.9)

(52.4)

(48.3)

(10.7)

126.0
135.7
138.8

133.0
146.6
150.0

97.8
107.5
107.3

12.1
24.5
28.5

(136.4)

(147.7)

(107.6)

(31.6)

(27.3)

(258.7)

0.2
0.2
0.4

5.4
6.0
5.8

0.3
0.4
0.3

5.8
6.6
6.4

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.4

2.0
1.7
1.8

2.4
2.3
2.2

3.2
4.0
4.0

0.2
0.4
0.3

Ukraine (Sep/Aug)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.1
0.3
0.4

2.9
3.9
4.2

0.0
0.0
0.0

3.0
4.1
4.6

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

1.4
1.4
1.6

1.5
1.7
1.7

1.3
2.1
2.5

0.3
0.4
0.4

Paraguay (Mar/Feb)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.7
0.4
0.3

8.3
8.6
8.9

0.0
0.0
0.0

9.0
9.1
9.2

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.2

3.6
3.8
3.9

3.7
4.2
4.2

4.9
4.6
4.6

0.4
0.3
0.5

China (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

12.4
12.9
12.0

12.0
12.2
11.0

70.8
76.0
79.5

95.1
101.1
102.5

10.5
10.7
11.1

1.6
2.2
2.3

69.5
75.5
78.7

82.0
88.9
92.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

12.9
12.0
9.8

(78.0)

(100.5)

(76.2)

(90.1)

13.6
13.5
13.6

15.3
15.9
15.8

13.3
14.1
14.1

14.3
15.0
15.0

(13.2)

(15.4)

(13.7)

(14.6)

(11.6)

0.5
1.0
0.8

1.2
1.5
1.4

(286.8)

7.4
8.7
8.9

Canada (Sep/Aug)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

EU* (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.0
0.0
0.0

(70.6)

(6.8)

USA (Sep/Aug)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

56.9
68.5
70.0

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.8
0.8
0.7

(10.3)

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
0.8
0.8

India (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.7
0.7
0.4

12.0
10.5
11.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

12.6
11.2
11.4

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.9
0.7
0.6

10.5
9.7
10.0

11.7
10.6
10.9

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.7
0.4
0.3

Japan (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.3
0.2
0.2

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
3.1
3.1

3.4
3.5
3.6

0.8
0.8
0.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.2
2.2

3.2
3.3
3.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.3

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

27.8
31.4
43.3

285.0
322.1
317.6

c)
113.1
122.2
124.9

312.8
353.5
361.0

16.2
16.9
17.5

13.8
17.8
18.4

250.3
273.7
279.5

281.4
310.3
316.9

c)
113.1
122.2
124.9

31.4
43.3
44.1

(45.7)

(316.0)

(123.5)

(361.7)

(276.6)

(314.1)

(123.5)

(47.7)

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.

a) Including seed and waste.

b) Argentina, Brazil, USA
c) IGC October/September trade
Totals may not sum due to rounding

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

Future GMR publication dates

GMR No.
459....24 September 2015
460....29 October 2015

461....19
November 2015

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