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Module 10

This document discusses time series analysis and forecasting techniques. It provides examples of using simple exponential smoothing to forecast demand. In one example, given a previous forecast of 70 and actual demand of 60, the forecast for the next period is calculated as 67 using an alpha of 0.3. Another example calculates the demand forecast for 2012 as 892 given a 2011 forecast of 910 and actual demand of 850, using an alpha of 0.3. The document also discusses using moving averages, exponential smoothing, naive forecasting, and linear regression to forecast demand for the month of September based on historical monthly demand data.

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47 views

Module 10

This document discusses time series analysis and forecasting techniques. It provides examples of using simple exponential smoothing to forecast demand. In one example, given a previous forecast of 70 and actual demand of 60, the forecast for the next period is calculated as 67 using an alpha of 0.3. Another example calculates the demand forecast for 2012 as 892 given a 2011 forecast of 910 and actual demand of 850, using an alpha of 0.3. The document also discusses using moving averages, exponential smoothing, naive forecasting, and linear regression to forecast demand for the month of September based on historical monthly demand data.

Uploaded by

api-298943156
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Essential Quantitative Skills for

Business

Module (10)
Time Series
Analysis
By : ALI ADEL ALI ALI IBRAHIM

Time Series Analysis


Problem#1:
Given an actual demand of 60 for a period
when forecast of 70 was anticipated, and an
alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the
next period be using simple exponential
smoothing?

Time Series Analysis


Solution#1:
F = (1-0.3)(70)+0.3(60) = 67

Time Series Analysis


Problem#2:
Suppose you have been asked to generate a demand
forecast for a product for year 2012 using an exponential
smoothing method. The forecast demand in 2011 was
910. The actual demand in 2011 was 850. Using this data
and a smoothing constant of 0.3, which of the following is
the demand forecast for year 2012?
A) 850
B) 885
C) 892
D) 925
E) 930

Time Series Analysis


Solution#2:
F = (1-0.3)(910)+0.3(850) = 892

Time Series Analysis


Problem#3:
Use exponential smoothing to forecast this
periods demand if = 0.2, previous actual
demand was 30, and previous forecast was 35.
A) 29
B) 31
C) 34
D) 36
E) 37

Time Series Analysis


Solution#3:
F = (1-0.2)(35)+0.2(30) = 34

Time Series Analysis


Problem#4:
Given the following demand data
Month
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Demand 19 18 15 20 18 22 20

Jul Aug

a) Draw the data.


b) Forecast for September using Five period moving average.
c) Forecast for September using Exponential smoothing. Alpha
is 0.2 and forecast for march was 19.
d) Forecast for September using Nave method
e) Compute MAD for Nave Method and Exponential
Smoothing. Which one is preferred? Nave Method and
Exponential Smoothing?
f) Forecast for September using Linear Regression

Time Series Analysis


Solution#4:

Time Series Analysis


Solution#4:

F8 =MA7= (A7+A6+A5+A4+A3)/5 = (20+22+18+20+15)/5


F8 =MA7= 19

Time Series Analysis


Solution#4:

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