Envisioning Ecological Revolution
Envisioning Ecological Revolution
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C H A P T E R T H I RT E E N
WA R N I N G B E L L S
The more we learn about current environmental trends, the more the
unsustainability of our present course is brought home to us. Among the
warning signs:
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Two thirds of the worlds major fish stocks are currently being
fished at or above their capacity. Over the last half-century 90
percent of large predatory fish in the worlds oceans have been
eliminated.6
The species extinction rate is the highest in sixty-five million years
with the prospect of cascading extinctions, as the last remnants of
intact ecosystems are removed. Already the extinction rate is in
some cases (as in the case of bird species) one hundred times the
benchmark or natural rate. Scientists have pinpointed twenty-five hot spots on land that account for 44 percent of all vascular
plant species and 35 percent of all species in four vertebrate
groups, while taking up only 1.4 percent of the worlds land surface. All of these hot spots are now threatened with rapid annihilation due to human causes. According to Stephen Pimm and
Clinton Jenkins, writing in Scientific American: Substantial
tracts of intact wilderness remain: humid tropical forests such as
the Amazon and Congo, drier woodlands of Africa, and coniferous forests of Canada and Russia. If deforestation in these wilderness forests continues at current rates, the combined extinction
rate in them and in the hot [spots around the world] will soon be
1,000 times higher than the benchmark one in a million.7
According to a study published by the National Academy of
Sciences in 2002, the world economy exceeded the earths regenerative capacity in 1980 and by 1999 had gone beyond it by as
much as 20 percent. This means, according to the studys authors,
that it would require 1.2 earths, or one earth for 1.2 years, to
regenerate what humanity used in 1999.8
The question of the ecological collapse of past civilizations from
Easter Island to the Mayans is now increasingly seen as extending
to todays world capitalist system. This view, long held by environmentalists, has been popularized by Jared Diamond in his
book Collapse.9
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These and other warning bells indicate that the present human relation to the environment is no longer supportable. The most developed
capitalist countries have the largest per capita ecological footprints,
demonstrating that the entire course of world capitalist development at
present represents a dead end.
The main response of the ruling capitalist class, when confronted
with the growing environmental challenge, is to fiddle while Rome burns.
To the extent that it has a strategy, it is to rely on revolutionizing the forces
of production, i.e., on technical change, while keeping the existing system
of social relations intact. It was Karl Marx who first pointed in The
Communist Manifesto to the constant revolutionizing of production as
a distinguishing feature of capitalist society. Todays vested interests are
counting on this built-in process of revolutionary technological change
coupled with the proverbial magic of the market to solve the environmental problem when and where this becomes necessary.
In stark contrast, many environmentalists now believe that technological revolution alone will be insufficient to solve the problem and that a
more far-reaching social revolution aimed at transforming the present
mode of production is required.
G R E AT T R A N S I T I O N S C E N A R I O S
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the general formula for capital, in reality, takes the form of MCM,
where M equals M + Um or surplus-value. What stands out, when contrasted with simple commodity production, is that there is no real end to
the process, since the object is not final use but the accumulation of surplus-value or capital. MCM in one year, therefore, results in the Um
being reinvested, leading to MCM in the next year and MCM
the year after that, ad infinitum. In other words, capital by its nature is
self-expanding value.13
The motor force behind this drive to accumulation is competition.
The competitive struggle ensures that each capital or firm must grow and,
hence, must reinvest its earnings in order to survive.
Such a system tends toward exponential growth punctuated by crises
or temporary interruptions in the accumulation process. The pressures
placed on the natural environment are immense and will lessen only with
the weakening and cessation of capitalism itself. During the last half-century the world economy has grown more than seven-fold while the biospheres capacity to support such expansion has, if anything, diminished
due to human ecological depredations.14
The main assumption of those who advocate a Market Forces solution
to the environmental problem is that it will lead to increasing efficiency in
the consumption of environmental inputs by means of technological revolution and continual market adjustments. Use of energy, water, and other
natural resources will decrease per unit of economic output. This is often
referred to as dematerialization. However, the central implication of this
argument is false. Dematerialization, to the extent that it can be said to
exist, has been shown to be a much weaker tendency than MCM. As
the Global Transition report puts it, The growth effect outpaces the
efficiency effect. 15
This can be understood concretely in terms of what has been called
the Jevons Paradox, named after William Stanley Jevons, who published
The Coal Question in 1865. Jevons, one of the founders of neoclassical
economics, explained that improvements in steam engines that decreased
the use of coal per unit of output also served to increase the scale of production as more and bigger factories were built. Hence, increased efficiency in the use of coal had the paradoxical effect of expanding aggregate
coal consumption.16
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The perils of the Market Forces model are clearly visible in the environmental depredations during the two centuries since the advent of
industrial capitalism, and especially in the last half-century. Rather
than abating under a Market Forces regime, the Great Transition
report declares, the unsustainable process of environmental degradation that we observe in todays world would [continue to] intensify. The
danger of crossing critical thresholds in global systems would increase,
triggering events that would radically transform the planets climate and
ecosystems. Although it is the tacit ideology of most international
institutions, Market Forces leads inexorably to ecological and social disaster and even collapse. The continuation of business-as-usual is a
utopian fantasy.17
A far more rational basis for hope, the report contends, is found in the
Policy Reform scenario. The essence of the scenario is the emergence of
the political will for gradually bending the curve of development toward
a comprehensive set of sustainability targets, including peace, human
rights, economic development, and environmental quality.18 This is
essentially the Global Keynesian strategy advocated by the Brundtland
Commission Report in the late 1980san expansion of the welfare state,
now conceived as an environmental welfare state, to the entire world. It
represents the promise of what environmental sociologists call ecological modernization.
The Policy Reform approach is prefigured in various international
agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol on global warming and the
environmental reform measures advanced by the Earth Summits in Rio
in 1992 and Johannesburg in 2002. Policy Reform would seek to
decrease world inequality and poverty through foreign aid programs
emanating from the rich countries and international institutions. It
would promote environmental best practices through state-induced
market incentives. Yet, despite the potential for limited ecological
modernization, the realities of capitalism, the Great Transition report
contends, would collide with Policy Reform. This is because Policy
Reform remains a Conventional Worlds scenarioone in which the
underlying values, lifestyles, and structures of the capitalist system
endure. The logic of sustainability and the logic of the global market
are in tension. The correlation between the accumulation of wealth
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and the concentration of power erodes the political basis for a transition. Under these circumstances the lure of the God of Mammon and
the Almighty dollar will prevail.19
The failure of both of the Conventional Worlds scenarios to alleviate
the problem of ecological decline means that Barbarization threatens:
either Breakdown or the Fortress World. Breakdown is self-explanatory
and to be avoided at all costs. The Fortress World emerges when powerful regional and international actors comprehend the perilous forces
leading to Breakdown and are able to guard their own interests sufficiently to create protected enclaves.20 Fortress World is a planetary
apartheid system, gated and maintained by force, in which the gap
between global rich and global poor constantly widens and the differential access to environmental resources and amenities increases sharply. It
consists of bubbles of privilege amidst oceans of misery. . . . The elite[s]
have halted barbarism at their gates and enforced a kind of environmental management and uneasy stability.21 The general state of the planetary environment, however, would continue to deteriorate in this scenario leading either to a complete ecological Breakdown or to the
achievement through revolutionary struggle of a more egalitarian society, such as Eco-communalism.
This description of the Fortress World is remarkably similar to the
scenario released in the 2003 Pentagon report, Abrupt Climate Change
and Its Implications for United States National Security.22 The Pentagon
report envisioned a possible shutdown due to global warming of the thermohaline circulation warming the North Atlantic, throwing Europe and
North America into Siberia-like conditions. Under such unlikely but
plausible circumstances, relatively well-off populations, including those
in the United States, are pictured as building defensive fortresses
around themselves to keep masses of would-be immigrants out. Military
confrontations over scarce resources intensify.
Arguably naked capitalism and resource wars are already propelling
the world in this direction at present, though without a cause as immediately earth-shaking as abrupt climate change. With the advent of the War
on Terror, unleashed by the United States against one country after
another since September 11, 2001, an Empire of Barbarism is making
its presence felt.23
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concerned exclusively with the economic bottom line, but have revised
this to incorporate environmental sustainability and social ecology as
ends irrespective of profit.
Four agents of change are said to have combined to bring all of this
about: (1) giant transnational corporations; (2) intergovernmental organizations such as the United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary
Fund, and World Trade Organization; (3) civil society acting through
NGOs; and (4) a globally aware, environmentally-conscious, democratically organized world population.25
Underpinning this economically is the notion of a stationary state, as
depicted by Mill in his 1848 work, Principles of Political Economy, and
advanced today by the ecological economist Herman Daly and
Whiteheadian process philosopher John Cobb. Most classical economistsincluding Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Thomas Malthus, and
Karl Marxsaw the specter of a stationary state as presaging the demise
of the bourgeois political economy. In contrast, Mill, who Marx (in the
afterword to the second German edition of Capital) accused of a shallow
syncretism, saw the stationary state as somehow compatible with existing productive relations, requiring only changes in distribution.26 In the
New Sustainability Paradigm scenario, which takes Mills view of the stationary state as its inspiration, the basic institutions of capitalism remain
intact, as do the fundamental relations of power, but a shift in lifestyle and
consumer orientation mean that the economy is no longer geared to economic growth and the enlargement of profits, but to efficiency, equity, and
qualitative improvements in life. A capitalist society formerly driven to
expanded reproduction through investment of surplus product (or surplus-value) has been replaced with a system of simple reproduction
(Mills stationary state), in which the surplus is consumed rather than
invested. The vision is one of a cultural revolution supplementing technological revolution, and radically changing the ecological and social
landscape of capitalist society, without fundamentally altering the productive, property, and power relations that define the system.
In my view, there are both logical and historical problems with this
projection. It combines the weakest elements of utopian thinking (weaving a future out of mere hopes and wishes) with a practical desire to
avoid a sharp break with the existing system.27 The failure of the Global
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A N E C O LO G I C A L - S O C I A L R EVO LU T I O N
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wealth is both limited and easily obtainable; the riches of idle fancies go
on forever. It is the unnatural, unlimited character of such alienated
wealth that is the problem. Similarly, in what has become known as the
Vatican Sayings, Epicurus stated: Poverty, when measured by the natural purpose of life, is great wealth; but unlimited wealth is great poverty.28 Free human development, arising in a climate of natural limitation
and sustainability, is the true basis of wealth, of a rich, many-sided existence; the unbounded pursuit of wealth is the primary source of human
impoverishment and suffering. Needless to say, such a concern with natural well-being, as opposed to artificial needs and stimulants, is the
antithesis of capitalist society and the precondition of a sustainable
human community.
A Great Transition, therefore, must have the characteristics implied by
the Global Scenario Groups neglected scenario: Eco-communalism. It
must take its inspiration from William Morris, one of the most original and
ecological followers of Karl Marx, from Gandhi, and from other radical,
revolutionary and materialist figures, including Marx himself, stretching as
far back as Epicurus. The goal must be the creation of sustainable communities geared to the development of human needs and powers, removed
from the all-consuming drive to accumulate wealth (capital).
As Marx wrote, the new system starts with the self-government of the
communities.29 The creation of an ecological civilization requires a
social revolution, one that, as Roy Morrison explains, needs to be organized democratically from below: community by community . . . region by
region. It must put the provision of basic human needsclean air, unpolluted water, safe food, adequate sanitation, social transport, and universal
health care and education, all of which require a sustainable relation to
the earthahead of all other needs and wants. An ecological dialectic
along these lines, Morrison insists, rejects not struggle but the endless
slaughter of industrial negation in the interest of unlimited profits.30
Such a revolutionary turn in human affairs may seem improbable. But the
continuation of the present capitalist system for any length of time will
prove impossibleif human civilization and the web of life as we know it
are to be sustained.
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N O T E S T O PA G E S 2 4 4 2 4 9
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C H A P T E R 1 3 : E N V I S I O N I N G E C O LO G I C A L R EVO LU T I O N
This chapter has been revised and adapted for this book from an article originally published under the title Organizing Ecological Revolution, in Monthly
Review 57, no. 5 (October 2005): 110. It was based on an address delivered
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N O T E S T O PA G E S 2 5 3 2 6 2
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C H A P T E R 1 4 : E C O LO GY A N D T H E T R A N S I T I O N F R O M
C A P I TA L I S M T O S O C I A L I S M
This concluding chapter is adapted and revised from an article by the same title
that appeared in Monthly Review 60, no. 6 (November 2008): 112. It was
based on an address delivered at the Climate Change, Social Change conference, Sydney, Australia, April 12, 2008, organized by Green Left Weekly.
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