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Trinomial Distribution

The document discusses the trinomial distribution, which describes the probability of outcomes when there are three possible mutually exclusive outcomes. An example is given of students attending a football game, watching it on TV, or ignoring it. This fits a trinomial distribution, with X being the number attending, Y watching TV, and Z ignoring. The joint probability mass function of X and Y is defined. Marginally, X and Y follow binomial distributions but they are dependent, since multiplying their individual distributions does not equal the joint trinomial distribution.

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503 views

Trinomial Distribution

The document discusses the trinomial distribution, which describes the probability of outcomes when there are three possible mutually exclusive outcomes. An example is given of students attending a football game, watching it on TV, or ignoring it. This fits a trinomial distribution, with X being the number attending, Y watching TV, and Z ignoring. The joint probability mass function of X and Y is defined. Marginally, X and Y follow binomial distributions but they are dependent, since multiplying their individual distributions does not equal the joint trinomial distribution.

Uploaded by

nitin30
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PublishedonSTAT414/415(https://onlinecourses.science.psu.

edu/stat414)
Home>TheTrinomialDistribution

TheTrinomialDistribution
YoumightrecallthatthebinomialdistributiondescribesthebehaviorofadiscreterandomvariableX,whereXisthe
numberofsuccessesinntries,wheneachtryresultsinoneofonlytwopossibleoutcomes.Whathappensifthere
aren'ttwo,butratherthree,possibleoutcomes?That'swhatwe'llexplorehereonthispage,endingupnotwiththe
binomialdistribution,butratherthetrinomialdistribution.Aratherfittingname,Imightsay!

Example
Supposen=20studentsareselectedatrandom:
LetAbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentwenttothefootball
gameonSaturday.Also,letP(A)=0.20=p1,say.
LetBbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentwatchedthe
footballgameonTVonSaturday.LetP(B)=0.50=p2,say.
LetCbetheeventthatarandomlyselectedstudentcompletelyignored
thefootballgameonSaturday.LetP(C)=0.30=1p1p2.
Onepossibleoutcome,then,ofselectingthe20studentsatrandomis:
BBCABBAACABBBCCBCBCB
Thatis,thefirsttwostudentswatchedthegameonTV,thethirdstudentignoredthegame,thefourthstudentwentto
thegame,andsoon.Now,ifweletXdenotethenumberinthesamplewhowenttothefootballgameonSaturday,
letYdenotethenumberinthesamplewhowatchedthefootballgameonTVonSaturday,andletZdenotethe
numberinthesamplewhocompletelyignoredthefootballgame,theninthiscase:
X=4(becausethereare4As)
Y=10(becausethereare10Bs)
Z=20XY=6(andyes,indeed,thereare6Cs)
WhatisthejointprobabilitymassfunctionofXandY?

Solution.

Thisexamplelendsitselftothefollowingformaldefinition.

Definition.Supposewerepeatanexperimentnindependenttimes,witheachexperimentendinginoneofthreemutually
exclusiveandexhaustiveways(success,firstkindoffailure,secondkindoffailure).IfweletXdenotethenumberof
timestheexperimentresultsinasuccess,letYdenotethenumberoftimestheexperimentresultsinafailureofthefirst
kind,andletZdenotethenumberoftimestheexperimentresultsinafailureofthesecondkind,thenthejointprobability
massfunctionofXandYis:
n!
f (x, y) = P (X = x, Y = y) =

nxy

p p (1 p1 p2 )
x!y!(n x y)!

with:
x=0,1,,n
y=0,1,,n
x+yn

Example(continued)
WhatarethemarginalprobabilitymassfunctionsofXandY?AreXandYindependent?ordependent?

Solution.Wecaneasilyjustlumpthetwokindsoffailuresbacktogether,therebygettingthatX,thenumber
ofsuccesses,isabinomialrandomvariablewithparametersnandp1.Thatis:
n!

f (x) =

x!(n x)!

nx

p (1 p 1 )
1

withx=0,1,,n.Similarly,wecanlumpthesuccessesinwiththefailuresofthesecondkind,thereby
gettingthatY,thenumberoffailuresofthefirstkind,isabinomialrandomvariablewithparametersnandp2.
Thatis:
n!

f (y) =

y!(n y)!

ny

p (1 p 2 )
2

withy=0,1,,n.Therefore,XandYmustbedependent,becauseifwemultiplythep.m.f.sofXandY
together,wedon'tgetthetrinomialp.m.f.Thatis,f(x,y)f(x)f(y):
[

n!
x!y!(n x y)!

nxy

p p (1 p 1 p 2 )

] [

n!
x!(n x)!

nx

p (1 p 1 )
1

] [

n!
y!(n y)!

Bytheway,there'salsoanotherwayofarguingthatXandYmustbedependent...becausethejointsupport
ofXandYistriangular!

SourceURL:https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat414/node/106

ny

p (1 p 2 )

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