Modal Verbs: Probability
Modal Verbs: Probability
can
could
may
might
will
would
must
shall
should
ought to
Probability:
First, they can be used when we want to say how sure we are that something happened / is happening / will
happen. We often call these 'modals of deduction' or 'speculation' or 'certainty' or 'probability'.
For example:
I don't know where John is. He could have missed the train.
must + infinitive
can't + infinitive
For example:
I am waiting for Julie with another friend, David.
I ask: 'Where is Julie?'
David guesses:
She must be on the bus. (I'm fairly sure this is a good guess)
Will / won't
We use will and won't when we are very sure:
Should / shouldn't
Should and shouldn't are used to make an assumption about what is probably true, if everything is as we expect:
This use of should isn't usually used for negative events. Instead, it's a better idea to use will:
Can
Can is used for something that is generally possible, something we know sometimes happens:
For example:
You: Where was Julie last night?
David:
Could
We can use could + infinitive to talk about a general possibility in the past (compare with the use of 'can' above):
This is not used to talk about specific possibilites in the past (instead we usecould + have + past participle):
He could have been working late (not: 'could be'. As this is a specific possiblity, 'could be' is present tense)
Ability
We use 'can' and 'could' to talk about a skill or ability.
For example:
I can't drive.
First, we mean general ability. This is something that once you have learned you can do any time you want,
like being able to read or swim or speak a language, for example.
The other kind of ability is specific ability. This mean something that you can or can't do in one particular
situation. For example, being able to lift something heavy, or find somewhere you are looking for.
Present:
can / can't (for both general and specific ability)
Past:
could / couldn't (for general ability)
She could speak French when she was a child, but now she has forgotten it.
When the computer crashed yesterday, I was able to fix it.(not 'I could fix it')
She was able to pass the exam, even though she hadn't studied much.(not 'she could pass')
could + have + past participle (an ability someone had in the past, but didn't use)
I could have played the piano well but I didn't practise enough.
She could have studied law, but she preferred to become a secretary.
Future:
will / won't be able to (general ability)
At the end of the course, you will be able to make your own website.
Present
Positive
Negative
have to /
no obligation
don't have to
outside)
must /
mustn't
negative obligation
should /
shouldn't
Be careful about the difference between mustn't and don't have to!
Mustn't means it's not allowed, or it's a bad idea:
Don't have to means you don't need to do something, but it's fine if you want to do it:
I don't have to get up early at the weekend(of course, if I want to get up early, that's fine, but I can stay
in bed if I want).
Past
Positive
Negative
had to / didn't
have to
must*
should have +
pp / shouldn't
have + pp
* Remember 'must have done' is a modal verb of deduction or speculation, not obligation in the past. For
example: Julie must have left. Her coat's not here. Seemodals of probabilty for more information.
Permission
We can use verbs such as 'can', 'could' and 'may' to ask for and give permission. We also use modal verbs to say
something is not allowed.
For example:
Habits
We can use 'will' and 'would' to talk about habits or things we usually do, or did in the past.
For example:
When I lived in Italy, we would often eat in the restaurant next to my flat.
Past modals
The past modals 'could have + past participle', 'should have + past participle' and 'would have + past participle'
can be confusing. I explain about them here.
They could have won the race, but they didn't try hard enough.
Julie could have bought the book, but she borrowed it from the library instead.
He could have studied harder, but he was too lazy and that's why he failed the exam.
Couldn't have + past participle means that something wasn't possible in the past, even if you had wanted
to do it.
I couldn't have arrived any earlier. There was a terrible traffic jam (= it was impossible for me to have
arrived any earlier).
He couldn't have passed the exam, even if he had studied harder. It's a really, really difficult exam.
2: We use could have + past participle when we want to make a guess about something that happened in
the past. (See also modals of probability.) In this case, we don't know if what we're saying is true or not true.
We're just talking about our opinion of what maybe happened.
Why is John late?
We can also choose to use might have + past participle to mean the same thing:
I should have studied harder! (= I didn't study very hard and so I failed the exam. I'm sorry about this
now.)
I should have gone to bed early (= I didn't go to bed early and now I'm tired).
I shouldn't have eaten so much cake! (= I did eat a lot of cake and now I don't feel good.)
You should have called me when you arrived (= you didn't call me and I was worried. I wish that you
had called me).
John should have left early, then he wouldn't have missed the plane (= but he didn't leave early and so
he did miss the plane).
2: We can also use should have + past participle to talk about something that, if everything is normal and
okay, we think has already happened. But we're not certain that everything is fine, so we use 'should have' and
not the present perfect or past simple. It's often used with 'by now'.
His plane should have arrived by now (= if everything is fine, the plane has arrived).
John should have finished work by now (= if everything is normal, John has finished work).
We can also use this to talk about something that would have happened if everything was fine, but hasn't
happened.
If I had had enough money, I would have bought a car (but I didn't have enough money, so I didn't buy
a car).
2: Because 'would' (and will) can also be used to show if you want to do something or not (volition), we can also
use would have + past participle to talk about something you wanted to do but didn't. This is very similar
to the third conditional, but we don't need an 'if clause'.