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Joe Dinapoli

Technical analysis fibonacci

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
412 views23 pages

Joe Dinapoli

Technical analysis fibonacci

Uploaded by

analyst_anil14
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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TT isortshop wil ach you the most racial way apply iba rago to he price sis. Joe DiNapoli recognized around the world for his understanding ofthe subject, Attends wil Giscover how to mix leading Fibonacci) and lagging indicators for's highaccuray, low-risk trading approach, You wil ind out how to enter strong running market moves “safely” and where to place stops for maximum protection and Irinimum exposure. You will learn how to calculate pre-defined profic objective poincs Ind how to employ the three-period money management rule wo maximize prof and minimize heartache. You will ear why speife Displaced Moving Averages a 2 supe- Hor tend containment indicator and why. a unique application of the MACD/Stochasae trend indicator yields superior trading results When you leave this session, you will understand the proper and practical applica- tion of Fibonacei ratios to the price axis and you will have access to a trading style that has the capacity to produce an exceptionally high number of winning tades In this year’s TAG presentation, Joe DiNapoli will show, forthe fst ime ouside of the private seminar stung, the fall implementation ofthe most accurate directional sg- fal fv his ding arsenal. This signal i called the fot pena sade on, his sudents fave ded i rad and ber” so ale fort ayo pode» igh perentage of wining trades Joe DiNapoli is a veteran trader with over twenty-five years of solid market trading experience. He is also a dogged and thorough researcher, an internationally recognized lecturer and a widely acclaimed author. Joe's formal education was in electrical engineering and economics. His informal edu- cation was in “the Bunker,” an aptly named trading room, packed full of electronics and communications equipment, where most of Joe's early research began. Joe’s exhaustive investigations into displaced moving averages, his creation of the proprietary “Oscillator Predictor,” and in parla, his practical and unique method of Applying Fibonacci ratios to the price axis make him one of today’s most sought-after experts. ‘A registered CTA, Joe has taught his techniques in the major financial capitals of Europe and Asia, as well as in the United States. His articles have appeared in a wide variety of technical publications across the nation and worldwide. In 1996 alone, Joe ‘taught to capacity audiences in twenty-three financial centers around the globe. Joe was a contributing author to High Performance Futures Trading, Power Lessons From the Masters, selected 1990 book of the year by Super Trader's Almanac. He also ‘wrote the Fibonacci Money Management and Trend Analysis In-Eome Trading Course, which has been lauded by professional and novice traders alike. Joe's newest and most complete work, DiNapoli Levels, is due out in October of 1997. ‘When Chuck LeBeau (Technica! Traders Bulletin) asked his readers for names of suc- cessful traders they most wanted to see interviewed, Joe DiNapoli’s name came up more often than any other. The Atlanta Constitution cited Joe's work by referring to the “magical power” of Fibonacci ratios in the market place. Joe has often made use of this magic to ‘make both staring and uncannily accurate market predictions, particularly in stock market indexes and interest rate futures. As the president of Coast Investment Software, Inc, located on Siesta Key in Sarasota, Florida, Joe continues to develop and deploy “high accuracy” trading methods, using @ combination of leading and lagging indicators in unique and innovative ways. He conducts a limited number of private turorials each year at his trading room and he also makes his trading approach available to others via software and trading course materials. ‘Copyright DINAPOLI 1997. All Rights Reserved. ‘A complete catalogue of all TAG XIX tapes may be ordered from: Dow Jones Seminars 701 Poydras, Suite 3900 New Orleans, LA 70139-3901 (800) 535-7990 » (504) 592-4550 + FAX (504) 392-4553, TA ax LAS VEGAS 1997 Applying Fibonacci to Price Action JOE DINaPoui Jor DiNarotr Coast Investment Software 6907 Midnight Pass Siesta Key Sarasota, FL 34242 (941) 346-3801 O (941) 346-3901 FAX, [email protected] ‘www haleyon.com\neal\dinapoli powjones THE DILEMMA: You know the market is going up, you're sure of it, and you're long, but, your stop is hit, just before the market goes exactly where you knew it was going all along. THE PROBLEM: Improper Stop Placement Then, you get back in, at a new high, just in time for another pull back. THE PROBLEM: Improper Entry Techniques You ignore placing a stop, turn off the screen and go for a drive. When you ‘come back, you luck out and find the market seriously higher. THE PROBLEM: Improper Self Management & Money Management Since you're in profits and want some protection., you place a break even stop, THE PROBLEM: You don’t know where to take profits. Some news hits. The market breaks hard, gets your stop, and promptly closes at contract highs. THE FRUSTRATION: When you're right the market, you lose, break even, or take excessive risk. When you're wrong the market, you just lose. THE SOLUTIO! Understanding the proper use and context, in which to apply a high quality leading indicator. One that is designed to give you precise entry, stop, and targeted profit objective points, before the market gets there. If you tum out to be totally wrong in market direction, the same indicator controls your risk THE BOTTOM LINE: Buy pre-calculated dips in an up-trend, sell pre-calculated rallies in a down- trend. Place stops properly, and take precalculated profits. That's what this workshop is all about! ‘The views express byte speakers a the vies of such speakers an ae net ne ans Daw sones Marts. Such ewe are not 1 Should nt be retad upon to govein acon a THE THREE CATEGORIES OF A WINNING TRADING STRATEGY 4. MANAGEMENT OF: - YOURSELF - understand your reasons for trading excitement (overtrading) or profit - YOUR TRADING CAPITAL = 3 period rule 2. COMPETENT TREND AND DIRECTIONAL ANALYSIS (lagging indicators) - KNOW YOUR TIME FRAME - MOVING AVERAGES fair - STOCHASTICS fair - TREND LINES, TREND CHANNELS fair -MACD & STOCHASTIC COMBINATION _ good - DISPLACED MOVING AVERAGES 00d - PATTERNS THAT WORK good 3. PROPER APPLICATION OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT & OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS (leading indicator) - PINPOINT MARKET ENTRIES - PINPOINT STOPS - CALCULATE LOGICAL PROFIT OBJECTIVES GOAL: MINIMIZE RISK AND INSURE A 70-80% PROBABILITY OF GAIN LET'S ASSUME A BASIC MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER. NON-JUDGMENTAL. ALWAYS IN THE MARKET SYSTEM, WHERE ONE WOULD BUY ON CLOSE ABOVE THE MA AND SELL BELOW IT ON CLOSE. IT'S EASY TO SEE HOW MANY TIMES ONE WOULD HAVE BEEN WHIPSAWED BY THE NON-DISPLACED MA AS OPPOSED TO THE DISPLACED MA. eo sae CHART 1 NON-DISPLACED MOVING AVERAGE apt 19027, WHIPSAWS CHART 2 Baeza, DISPLACED MOVING AVERAGE ly zazra WHIPSAWS EVEN BEING WHIPSAWED INFREQUENTLY. AS IN CHART 3, CAN LEAVE AN AVERAGE TRADER WITH AN EMOTIONAL EXCUSE \OT TO REENTER. LOOK AT THE PROFIT YOU WOULD HAVE MISSED IF THE WHIPS\W IN MARCH GAVE YOU AN EXCUSE TO STAY OUT OF THE MARKET, F CHART 3 RTT ia WHIPSAWS USING STANDARD MA. ‘AVOIDED USING DISPLACED MA DOUBLE REPO SELL lsh af 4 | aera, I 23aa7 DOUBLE REPO BUY 23303 22907 CHART 4 SHOWS TWO DOUBLE REPO SIGNALS IN THE S&P, OCCURRING IN 1986. I HAD MY. PROVERBIAL LUNCH HANDED TO ME JUST BEFORE THE FIRST SIGNAL. THE LOCALS IN ‘THE S&P HAD THEIR LUNCH HANDED TO THEM JUST AFTER THE SECOND SIGNAL. WE. BOTH LEARNED SOMETHING FROM THE EXPERIENCE, | LEARNED 4BQUT THE DOUBLE REPO SIGNAL. THE LOCALS LEARNED TO KEEP THEIR HANDS IN THEIR POCKETS. a CHART 4B SHOWS THE 3X3 CONTAINING THRUSTING MARKET ACTION IN THE CANADIAN OLLAR E sit a ta Fa = | id At 7090 E ple IH i hgh / I jo-res0 t it t/ — | f mw gst? \. e | ‘A artco jan t\ he — LE. cars. nN aay 7000 Esse U z SEE CHART 4B ¥ Tt Canadian Dallas Fat == CDus 7350] ‘CUPPING MARKET a ACTION jors10 | it ‘al {lh = |r ni ih = CHART 4 ny | | IDEALIZED DOUBLE REPO excerpted from Tradine wh DiNapoli Levels (page 72). CHART 5 DAILY SOYBEANS DOUBLE REPO DURING AND AFTER THE FLOODS IN 1993 CHART 6 \ oo we sett = | te me CHART 7 CHART 7 ILLUSTRATES THE CORN SHORTAGES IN 1996 AND THE SUBSEQUENT DOUBLE REPO. y5na9 Sarr, 4007 CHART 8 CHART 8 SHOWS THE 3X3 CONTAINING TREND IN CRUDE OIL ALL THE WAY UP ‘TO THE $40 LEVEL, THEN A DOUBLE REPO. UH iG ii CHART 9 SHOWS A MONTHLY GOLD DOUBLE REPO. BACK IN THE EARLY 805 a zeeeretee CHART 9 oe | ezeas 79906. | 75937 7288 ssese 3361 60472 s7ae3 sazea saz08 DOUBLE REPO SELL i aor t amo zean7 sata suas | JUST FOR A CHANGE OF PACE, LET'S SEE HOW THIS DIRECTIONAL INDICATOR WORKS IN, ‘THE STOCK MARKET. CHART 10A came. 5416. 4750 aaza 391, ess. BELOW IS PICTURED A DOUBLE REPO IN A HALF HOUR S&P ‘Gh SAB "S00" SebEK Tada Fukiits “SPH ~Frree8 CHART10B A233 ‘A DOUBLE REPO IN WEEKLY BONDS. a7a38 FORECASTED A HUGE BREAK IN THE azasa US BOND MARKET. 32908 axg0a ange 30238 aeens. CHART10C ‘THE DOUBLE REPO FAILURE IS A SIGNAL IN ITSELF. IT CORRECTLY FORECASTED EVEN LOWER PRICES a CHART 11 SHOWS A DOUBLE REPO FAILURE IN THE DOLLAR INDEX IN JULY. “97, ae OME TP RAH waae ICHART 11 dewes yenaa are DOUBLE REPO caer FAILURE pene sae e408 ema a7. s479 083 omn9 PHLEE | ICHART 12 FAILURE ? DOUBLE REPO SELL am exes ual Hu WEEKLY SOYBEAN DOUBLE REPO IN MAY OF 1997. NOTICE HOW THE 3X3 “CUPS” MARKET ACTION, Peete mE : = en om | OREAD & BUTTER oe f cae ease ion hyd = AAG YF 747, ] f° 2h aug 97 0.362 0.618 7775 Focus Number Fil teas eee Point Number Suppon 743 Fip Nodes ore renee ee 8115, 4 a8 =s=> 7968 * Tae. ret 7730 788 ———— 3] enaRTiss ES ORE eo Ba littl as cs | il | se ly | | " aus I ‘| 8040, | i inl ily h i | nom a Pscee ember Fue LHasot , i Sree mn : point Number Resistance LoorcaL Nodes Vn. Boatce OBrECTIVE se=> 7991 * ===> 8152 * isa13 [Copyright (c) 1996 CIS, Inc. 41 BASIC RETRACEMENT ANALYSIS UTILIZING THE TWO MAJOR RATIOS .382 AND 618: ‘ B 618 — .382 —— 382 618 l i CHART 144, CHART 14B | 1 | FIBNODES | | | FIBNODES Here are the equations relating to the above criteria. FIBNODE EQUATIONS F3 = B -.382(B-A) F5 = B -.618(B-A) | f BAR CHART LINE CHART F3 is the 3/8 Fibnode or .382 retracement . | F5 is the 5/8 Fibnode or .618 retracement . A A CHART 15 12 BASIC FIBONACCI EXPANSION ANALYSIS UTILIZING THE THREE MAJOR EXPANSION RATIOS .618, 1.0, AND 1.618: A c XoP 3 op coP cop B oP ve ‘A XOP CHART 164 CHART 16B OBJECTIVE POINT EQUATIONS OP=B-A+C OBJECTIVE POINT COP =.618(B-A)+C CONTRACTED OBJECTIVE POINT XOP = 1.618 (B-A)+C EXPANDED OBJECTIVE POINT 13 ee , 8303 ACTUAL HIGH i i, 8287 OP PROFIT ‘oooo.00 4 || OBJECTIVE jeone 7616 |7300.00 687 POINT DROP fi w fn Fd cathy ft |sso0.00 al j CHART 17 ri SS or ACTUAL 34534 OBJECTIVE 8176 73384, CHART 18 25 Aug 97 09:23:22 Updated: 08/24/1997 0.618 1.618 Point Value Objective Points File SPWKOL A= 60588 COP = 86443 1768 OP = 94534 C= 73354 XOP = 107623, 25 Aug 97 09:30:50 Updated: 00/00/0000 0.618 1.618 Point Value Objective Points File DJWKO1 A= 5182 ‘COP = 7550 Be 7112 (OP = 8287 C= 6357 XOP = 9380 14 GME Sai S00" Stock index’ = Future spur CHART 19 ' a a Ba Ta Yea FE ape eno | vagy My ag. r retail I {200.00 | pager eo0.00 neal . pence STE aa SesaRSEIS so Bs Pee . 2 Eo ee ize 7 BA BETTIE — TPIS z ay | CHART 20 ‘THE MACD/STOCHASTIC COMBINATION DAILY BASED SIGNALS A DAILY BASED SELL SIGNAL ON 810797 15 4 CONFLUENCE F5_ - F3 — F5 LINEAGE MARKINGS 2 CHART 21 F 3 REACTION LOWS 6 FIBNODES 2 CONFLUENCE AREAS — FB —F os KA a) — 5 K2 — FS ee CHART 224 CHARTS 21 & 22 (excerpted from Trading uh DINAPOLI LEVELS, pages 150 & 152) SHOW FIBNODE LINEAGE AND CONFLUENCE AREAS RESULTING FROM MULTIPLE REACTION, LOWS WITHIN A MARKET SWING. 16 YOU CAN SEE HOW EFFECTIVELY THE CONCEPT OF CONFLUENCE WORKS IN REAL LIFE TRADING. BELOW IS CHART 22-B, THE MONTHLY DEUTSCHE MARK SRS TER TG=——ornecor —sasEe to -aSTeer reer CHART 22-B : i ! | [AS EXPECTED, THE CONFLUENCE | ‘AREA PROVIDES SUBSTANTIAL sont SUPPORT AND SETS UP THE MARKET se2a FOR A MAJOR RALLY. IF WE DIDN'T ane. Lf KNOW ABOUT THE MONTHLY. Uh fa CONFLUENCE AND WE WERE SHORT, S828 H fi 4 WE'D BE IN FOR A NASTY SURPRISE orm, if ene K MONTHLY CONFLUENCE CHART 22-C 17 : MACDISTOC ALREADY. INA SELL 1 CHART 23 25 Aug97 16:05:16 Updated: 08/25/1997 0.382 0.618 Focus Number File SPUOS1 Focust (Low for the swing) Point Number Resistance Fib Nodes Point# (Enter lowest reaction high first) oss 1 = 94755 — 9525 —_ 98728 9418s 2 => 94808 T kK ==> 95357 T 96100 osiss 3 96920 Copyright (c) 1996 CIS, Ine. FIBNODE CONFLUENCE GIVES A LEADING INDICATOR SELL POINT AFTER A MAJOR OP IS FULFILLED ON THE UPSIDE, AND THE 3X3 IS BROKEN 18 CHE SAP S00 Stock Triax = Futiine == SFOF wh al i insoay WO ag pee A oP CHART 24 25 Aug 97 17:16:05 Updated: 08/25/1997 0.618 1.618 Point Value Objective Points File SPU602 A=96910 COP=92117 B= 92650 ‘OP = 90490 C=94750 XOP-= 87857 Copyright (¢) 1996 CIS, Inc. PROFIT OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE CALCULATED FROM AN HOURLY BASED CHART, WELL BEFORE THE MARKET GETS THERE. ALLOWING FOR THE GAP DOWN. THEY ARE FULFILLED ALMOST PERFECTLY. 19 tht, - : (SELL POINT A 94975 leso.c0 Wf, 2 «san abe | Hh ye AeA, j Mh, rin, f come Vez CHART 25 26 Aug 97 10:29:11, Updated: 00/00/0000 0.618 1.618 Point Value Objective Points File SPU0S2 A= 94975 B= 92625 C= 94375 26 Aug 97 10:34:21 Updated: 00/00/0000 0.618 1.618 Point Value Objective Points File SPUOSI A=92625 COP = 93006 B= 04375 OP = 94675 C=92925 — XOP-= 95757 Copyright (c) 1996 CIS, Ine. PROFIT OBJECTIVE POINTS CALCULATED FROM A 5 MINUTE CHART 20 ft sa [ ee in | HO osor — E 92650 I FA = ity 2 CHART 26 26 Aug97 10:50:04 Updated: 08/26/1997 0.382 0.618 Focus Number File SPU6O1 Focus# (Low for the swing) int Number Resistance Fib Nodes. Pointy (Enter lowest reaction high first) 926801 —> 93538 ===> 94087 94975 92650 2 > 93968 T => 94782 T 96100 => 94277 + > 95783 + Copyright (c) 1996 CIS, Ine. RE-ENTRY SELL OFF A 30 MINUTE CHART USING FIBNODE CONFLUENCE AND AGREEMENT 21 COAST INVESTMENT SOFTWARE, INC. products and services. #941 346-3801 #Fax 94] 346-3901 ee-mail [email protected] ewww fibtrader.com TEACHING AND TRAINING: Trading With DINAPOLI LEVELS over 300 pages of the most comprehensive and detailed book ever published on the practical application of Fibonacci Analysis to the Price Axis, PUBLICATION DATE: October 15, 1997. $162.00 Joe DiNapoli’, “FIBONACCI, MONEY MANAGEMENT, AND TREND ANALYSIS, in home trading course" This course consists of eight 90 minute audio tapes, an accompanying 100 page Instruction Manual, a high quality, wide span, Proportional Divider and an Applications Manual which describes in great detail how to properly use the divider. This is a recorded, 2-day seminar detailing a wide variety of topics essential for a trader's success. $475.00 without the Proportional Divider and an Applications Manual. $375.00 FIBONACCI A La Carte, The Mini Course: is an abbreviated, inexpensive version of the Trading Course. It contains two, 60 minute audio tapes, and an accompanying manual, as well as the Proportional Divider and the Applications Manual $189.00 The PROPORTIONAL DIVIDER & APPLICATIONS MANUAL: The Proportional Divider is a high quality architectural tool, manufactured and engineered in Germany. It is light weight and easy to handle. With this precision instrument, a trader can graphically locate important Fibonacci ratios, Confluence, and Lineage Markings. It is generally considered to be an indispensable trading tool, even if you have the FibNodes™ software. ‘The Applications Manual is a detailed, 60 page, professionally illustrated, instruction manual describing the manipulation of the Proportional Divider, as well as the theory behind the use of this device. $129.00 PRIVATE SEMINARS: Two day, intensive tutorials are held in the trading room during trading hours. Attendance is limited, prerequisites apply, and availability is very limited. Contact the office for price and scheduling information. TRADING SOFTWARE: FibNodes™: A unique Fibonacci Retracement and Objective Calculator, designed specifically for hectic, high-pressure, intraday trading, as well as position trading where high accuracy stop placement and targeted "profit objectives" are a must! The Fibonacci levels are calculated and presented in a manner consistent with Joe DiNapoli's approach as detailed in Tradine With DINAPOLI LEVELS. $295.00 THE CIS TRADING PACKAGE: A complete, affordable computer software graphics trading package. It competently provides end-of-day analysis and has the proprietary “Oscillator Predictor™" study, as well as the proper calculation and presentation of other studies Mr. DiNapoli recommends for competent Trend analysis and Directional trading techniques. $295.00 22

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