Scribd
Upload
80 views

RealEstateOutlookMarch2010 - MRev

The real estate market overview document discusses home values declining through Q3 2010 before stabilizing. Negative equity is high in large metro areas and mortgage resets will continue to pressure home prices. While some markets are slowing, others have already entered a double-dip recession with falling home values. Local real estate markets vary but opportunities exist in short sales and foreclosures for knowledgeable buyers and agents. Home values are projected to decline a total of 25-27% from peak to trough before very weak appreciation over the next 3-5 years.

Uploaded by

Spencer Rascoff
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
80 views

RealEstateOutlookMarch2010 - MRev

The real estate market overview document discusses home values declining through Q3 2010 before stabilizing. Negative equity is high in large metro areas and mortgage resets will continue to pressure home prices. While some markets are slowing, others have already entered a double-dip recession with falling home values. Local real estate markets vary but opportunities exist in short sales and foreclosures for knowledgeable buyers and agents. Home values are projected to decline a total of 25-27% from peak to trough before very weak appreciation over the next 3-5 years.

Uploaded by

Spencer Rascoff
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 14

Real Estate Market Overview

March 2010

Nate Moch
Product Manager, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace
[email protected]
206.470.7161
Home Values in the United States

2
Negative Equity Among the Largest Metro Markets

3
Mortgages Continue to Reset and Recast

Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research

4
Comparing the Top Metros

5
Big Markets Where Turn-Around is Slowing

6
Markets Already in a Double-Dip with Home Values

7
Local Pages

8
Good News

• Home values will continue to fall until Q3 2010 but end in


sight

• Good time to buy because lots of information to buyers

• More sales this year than last year

• If you understand and can help with foreclosures and short


sales there is a lot of opportunity

9
Appendix

10
Conclusions

• Home values will continue to fall until Q3 2010

• A likely total peak-to-trough decline of 25-27%.

• Further declines driven by foreclosures (themselves driven


by negative equity and unemployment as well as by more
mortgage resets/recasts), increasing mortgage rates, an
already high supply of for-sale homes, and weaker demand
after the homebuyer tax credits lapse due to demand-
shifting.

• Very anemic appreciation after bottom is reached; may not


appreciate at all in real terms for next 3-5 years.

11
Comparing the Top Metros

12
Foreclosures in the United States

13
Differences Between Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and Case-Shiller

• Case-Shiller usually reports


on the Composite-20 Index
which is dominated by
bubble markets.
• Case-Shiller only includes
homes that have sold at
least twice (and excludes all
new construction)
• Case-Shiller includes
foreclosure re-sales even
though these are
substantially different than
non-distressed sales.
• ZHVI looks at all home
values, regardless of what
has sold or not.
• ZHVI does not include
foreclosure re-sales.

14

You might also like