The Fut

u r e
of
Making

Technology Horizons Program

124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor
Palo Alto, CA 94301 > 650.854.6322 > www.iftf.org
about the …

Technology Horizons Program

The Technology Horizons Program combines a deep understanding of technology and societal
forces to identify and evaluate discontinuities and innovations in the next three to ten years.
We help organizations develop insights and strategic tools to better position themselves for the
future. Our approach to technology forecasting is unique—we put humans in the middle of our
forecasts. Understanding humans as consumers, workers, householders, and community mem-
bers allows IFTF to help companies look beyond technical feasibility to identify the value in new
technologies, forecast adoption and diffusion patterns, and discover new market opportunities
and threats. For more information about the Technology Horizons Program, contact Sean Ness
at [email protected], (650) 233-9517.

Institute for the Future

The Institute for the Future is an independent, nonprofit strategic research group with more
than 40 years of forecasting experience. The core of our work is identifying emerging trends and
discontinuities that will transform global society and the global marketplace. We provide our
members with insights into business strategy, design process, innovation, and social dilemmas. Our
research generates the foresight needed to create insights that lead to action. Our research spans
a broad territory of deeply transformative trends, from health and health care to technology, the
workplace, and human identity. The Institute for the Future is located in Palo Alto, California.

Author: David Pescovitz

Editor: Jess Hemerly

Peer Reviewers: Marina Gorbis, Alex Pang, Anthony Townsend

Production Editor: Lisa Mumbach

Designers: Karin Lubeck, Yeshai Lang

©2008 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. This report is proprietary for
Technology Horizons Program members. Reproduction prohibited without written permission.
 Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Drivers . ......................................................................................................................................... 2

Trends ............................................................................................................................................ 3

Implications .............................................................................................................................. 16

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 3
Introduction

On May 3 and 4, 2008, more than 75,000 people from all over the
country descended on a fairground in Silicon Valley to see a glimpse
of the future through a lens on the present. This was the annual Bay Area Maker
Faire, a celebration of do-it-yourself culture where more than 500 “makers” showed off their robot pets, home-
brewed 3D displays, biofuel-powered vehicles, and extreme crafts. Sponsored by MAKE and CRAFT magazines,
the event is a science fair meets craft fair meets farmer’s market. Yet, Maker Faire is not just about seeing great
DIY projects. It’s about breaking established modes of thinking and questioning traditional approaches to living,
working, and organizing. In Institute for the Future (IFTF) terms, Maker Faire is ripe with weak signals that point
toward the way technology may be used, or made, over the next decade.
Two future forces, one mostly social, one mostly technological, are intersecting to transform how goods, services,
and experiences—the “stuff” of our world—will be designed, manufactured, and distributed over the next decade.
An emerging do-it-yourself (DIY) culture of makers, only a fraction of whom were at Maker Faire, are boldly void-
ing warranties to tweak, hack, and customize their world. Inspired by the spread of open-source ideals, they ex-
pect to be able to personalize the products they buy. And what they can’t purchase, they build from scratch. Their
tools are screwdrivers and soldering irons, but also 3D printers and laser cutters. Advanced fabrication tools are
falling in price, driving a shift in manufacturing from massive, centralized factories to flexible, lightweight, and ad
hoc production. In the next decade, some products will likely be manufactured from raw materials right at home.
These social and technological shifts—toward a maker culture and lightweight manufacturing—sit atop a platform of
grassroots economics, where individuals are more involved in the production and distribution of goods without the
need for deep-pocketed middlemen. The ability to design, manufacture, and distribute goods, at scale, becomes
possible for all sizes of business with minimal barriers to entry. The new grassroots market structures developing on-
line also point to a shift from stores and gross sales to communities and connections. It turns out that do-it-yourself
may be a misnomer for this decidedly social movement; do-it-ourselves is a more apt phrase. Individual makers are
amplified by social technologies that connect ideas, designs, techniques, and, of course, people.
As the maker culture grows, it will likely spur organizational changes in corporations as well. Do-it-yourselfers
demonstrate skill sets and principles of collaboration that may not be consistent with most corporate cultures
and processes. Yet, DIY communities are pockets of raw ingenuity, places for organizations to seek out innova-
tion, from new approaches to R&D to novel methods of manufacturing. Indeed, the forecast in this report points
toward an unprecedented opportunity for companies to engage with their customers. Traditional manufacturers
and maverick makers will participate in the same conversations, sometimes cooperating, sometimes competing,
but frequently blurring the boundaries that separate them.

1
 Introduction
Inspired by the hackers, crafters, artisans, and tinkerers who are living this
forecast already, IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program set out to reverse
engineer the future of making. First, we identified the drivers,
the social and technological forces that push the forecast forward.

Platforms for Sociability

Social networking services are most commonly used for dating, job hunting, and keeping up with former
classmates. But they can also be thriving hubs for collaboration and problem solving. Platforms for socia-
bility are necessary in order to bring together large groups of experts to come up with the best solu-
tions. Yet some vetting of people, and problems, is essential. The wisdom of crowds is only as powerful
as the crowd is wise.

Eco-Motivation
The planned obsolescence of today’s technology doesn’t jibe with the increasingly green aspirations
of many consumers. A new mantra is emerging: Reduce, Reuse, Remake. Dissatisfied with the dispos-
ability of many products, some consumers are learning to fix things themselves, use old parts for new
applications, or, at the very least, provide unused technology to others who might remake it.

Rise of the Professional Amateur

Passionate hobbyists blur the line between amateur and professional. These aren’t passive consumers but
active creators whose results often surpass that of accredited experts and big businesses. Take Wikipedia,
for example. Paid, credentialed experts have traditionally written encyclopedias. In contrast, professional
amateurs who have direct knowledge of the topics they write about are Wikipedia’s primary writers.

Access to Tools
Tools of design and production are following something akin to Moore’s Law but for manufacturing. As
the cost of tools decreases and their capabilities increase, the barrier to entry for makers comes crashing
down. Consider computer-aided design (CAD) software, which used to be relegated to a market of archi-
tects and industrial designers. Now, however, Google SketchUp offers a simplified toolset that, as the free
product’s tagline states, provides “3D for everyone.”

Open-Source Everything
From P2P file sharing to open-source software, many people now have very different expectations
about what should be free and open to customization. Their aim is to make technology work the
way they want it to. Linux, an open-source operating system, powers a growing number of consumer
devices, from the PlayStation 2 to Motorola mobile phones. Apache, the Web server software, is at
the heart of nearly every commercial Web site yet it’s an icon of open-source software. Clearly, manu-
facturers are beginning to embrace the open-source concept internally. The next step is to bring the
same mindset to bear on their relationships with their customers.

Quest for Authenticity

To compensate for the inordinate amount of time spent in virtual worlds, from IM conversations to
Second Life, many people have developed a newfound appreciation for physical, hands-on experi-
ences. For example, the United States has seen a trending down in the average age of farmers. A
new documentary film, The Greenhorns, explores this growing culture of young farmers driven by
eco-motivation and the quest for authenticity. They’re getting their hands dirty. For them, reality is
still where the action is.
2
 When these present-day drivers—technological, social, economic, and cultural—intersect
and feed off one another, transformational trends emerge. In our research, we uncovered
six trends that will re-shape how we design, produce, and distribute things:

Personal Design and Fabrication: From the machine shop to the desktop

Fab labs, where nearly anything can be manufactured quickly and inexpensively, might take the
Star Trek replicator out of the realm of science fiction.

Lightweight Manufacturing: From centralized production to ad hoc factories

Rapid manufacturing technologies, personal fabrication, and the networking of supply chains into
flexible “supply webs” will lead to fast, customized, and often greener microniche production.

Citizen R&D: From R&D labs to R&D communities

Research and development is moving outside the traditional laboratory and into communities and
networks where ideation, iteration, and cash rewards fuel progress.

Networked Artisans: From garage inventors to maker meet-ups

Innovation is sparked by human interaction and the crosspollination of ideas. New networking
technology and social media keep the conversations and collaborations thriving both online and off.

Grassroots Economics: From products to stories

Scale is built from the bottom up through open-source practices, peer-to-peer exchanges, new
models for valuation, and a commons-based approach to commercialism.

“If You Can’t Open It, You Don’t Own It”: From closed IP to open innovation
Openness isn’t about giving away the farm but rather connecting with your consumers. In the near
future, open IP and innovation, especially in hardware, may be the best way to do business and build
relationships with customers.

This forecast is supported with signals, present day examples that are like signposts pointing toward the
evolution of larger trends: computer-controlled milling machines now available at Sears, for example, or the
thriving maker community at Instructables.com openly sharing their project plans. Finally, the report closes
with implications for your organizations. Consider these to be guiding principles informed by the forecast,
from “fail early and often” to “reward solution seekers.”
This forecast is also illustrated on the accompanying map. Think of it as an at-a-glance view of the future
of making. The map was distributed publicly at the Bay Area Maker Faire 2008 under a Creative Com-
mons license that enables anyone to “remix” the material and create new works from it for non-commer-
cial purposes. We chose to use the Creative Commons license because it embodies the open-source
mindset that’s so integral to the future of making.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 3
 Personal
design and
fabrication:
From the
machine shop to
the desktop

Trend 1
Drivers: Access to Tools + Open-Source Everything

While the price of tools drops, the tools’ power and preci- The next step is to print mechanical structures that can
sion are increasing. From Google’s SketchUp simplified interface with the electronics, like motors or buttons. John
CAD software to sewing machines that connect to your Canny and his University of California, Berkeley colleagues
laptop, it’s become much easier for an individual to make propose filling inkjet cartridges with electroactive poly-
whatever he or she imagines. Those capabilities will con- mers, plastics that contract with an electric charge or gen-
tinue to increase, reminding us of the days when every erate voltage when flexed. What is the first thing one might
garage had a workbench and sewing rooms were common build with a desktop factory? How about a copy of itself?
in large homes. Only this time, the amount of stuff that
The goal of University of Bath engineer Adrian Bowyer’s
can be homebrewed will increase exponentially.
RepRap (replicating rapid prototype) project is to build
Imagine that you’re about to host a margarita party and a “universal constructor” that not only manufactures ob-
your blender breaks just before the guests arrive. Instead jects, but actually make copies of itself. Bowyer released
of rushing to a store, you go online, click the model you all the blueprints and software code online to accelerate
want, hit “print,” and a machine on your desk kicks into progress by tapping into the collective intelligence of the
operation and prints out the components of the blender. open-source community. Further along in development
Snap them together and it’s tequila time! is the Fab@Home project, a collective effort to create a
“low cost, hackable rapid prototyper kit.”
Several technological developments are converging that
may pull the replicator out of Star Trek and put it in our Now, having access to the tools of design and fabrica-
homes, or at least into a Kinko’s-like fab lab down the tion doesn’t instantly make someone a good designer
block. The idea is similar to desktop publishing, but for or fine craftsman. In fact, there may be a consumer
products instead of paper. shift from paying for products to paying for plans.
Well-known brands could sell new designs that would
Product designers have been printing out objects for
be manufactured at home or nearby fab labs. Creative
more than a decade. Load a digital design into a machine
types would use advanced versions of software like
and it drips out thin beads of plastic and glue, building
Google SketchUp to render their own product ideas. An
up layers until the object is complete. While these 3D
open market for user-generated designs and personal-
printers improve in quality and drop in price, researchers
ized versions of commercial products will likely emerge
are making headway on printable electronics—circuits
online, culminating in the personal design and fabrica-
designed to be spat out of modified inkjet printers or
tion revolution, where products will be available for
cranked out in rolls like a newspaper.
sharing like so much online media.

4
 Better desktop tools for design and fabrication are
making it so that access to a complex shop full of tools and
machines or a formal vocational education is no longer a
prerequisite to making cool things.

signals:
Desktop Factory www.desktopfactory.com
Desktop Factory’s rapid prototyping printer builds functional models one layer at a time from stan-
dard 3D digital files. At $5000, it’s less than one-third of the cost of almost all other 3D printers
currently on the market. The goal of the company is to “make low-cost high-performance three-dimen-
sional printing pervasive in businesses, schools, and homes.”

Open-Source Biology www.openwetware.org

The next revolution in manufacturing may be biological. In the emerging field of synthetic biology,
genes, proteins, and cells are snapped together like Tinkertoys to build living systems that don’t
exist in nature. Already, bacteria have been engineered to biologically manufacture precursors for
some expensive pharmaceuticals. Biofuels are next. Eventually, these organisms, developed under
the tenets of open-source science, might be the basis of a distributed manufacturing infrastructure
producing raw materials in beakers and vats.

Craftsman Compucarve www.sears.com

A home CNC (computer numerical control) milling machine, the Sears Craftsman Compucarve retails
for less than $2000. According to the marketing materials, “It allows a novice to make a complete
project without a shop full of tools.” The machine comes with an expandable library of digital designs
that “allow you to achieve professional results regardless of space, time, budget or skill.”

Claytronics www.cs.cmu.edu/~claytronics
A basic research project from Carnegie Mellon and Intel, Claytronics—if the technology can be
developed—is nothing short of programmable matter. The “clay” in claytronics consists of mounds of
tiny microprocessors, called “catoms,” that can communicate and automatically self-assemble by way
of electrostatic forces.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 5
 lightweight
manufacturing:
From centralized
production to
ad hoc factories

Trend 2
Drivers: Access to Tools + Eco-Motivation

Tomorrow’s factory may look very different from the mas- “We are makers assembling a community of makers,”
sive, rigid machines familiar to us since the advent of the TechShop COO Mark Hatch, a former Kinko’s executive,
Industrial Revolution. Flexible manufacturing technolo- said at IFTF’s 2008 Technology Horizons Spring Exchange.
gies on the horizon will shift fabrication from massive and
While many TechShop members are weekend tinkerers
centralized to lightweight and ad hoc. Historically, build-
learning robotics or sheet metal fabrication, quite a few
ing an assembly line to crank out a widget has required
are entrepreneurs prototyping a product. The manufac-
a huge capital investment, and the company has a lot
turing tools at TechShop enable them to make proof-of-
riding on the success of that product. Inventory planning
concept devices without investing in any tools or shop
becomes a magical art: If supply of the product is greater
space. But where does a small business go when it’s time
than consumer demand, the company takes a direct hit.
to scale up—not significantly, but a little bit at a time?
Supply shortages can also be devastating. At the same
time, consumers are demanding more accountability from China, of course. But to do it right, you need a middle-
manufacturers. They want to know what materials went man like Liam Casey, dubbed “Mr. China” by The Atlantic
into their products and their sources, who manufactured Monthly. Casey is the founder of PCH International, a
the products, and the journey the products took from supply chain management company that navigates the
factory to corner store. intricacies of Shenzhen, China’s “factory to the world” for
a host of technology companies, from huge firms to small
However, in the near future, rapid manufacturing tech-
open-source operations. A nimble supply web and proxim-
nologies, personal fabrication, and the networking of
ity to flexible job shops mean that PCH can take a product
supply chains into flexible “supply webs” will transform the
from a concept all the way to consumer delivery in just
way goods are made. These technological developments,
eight weeks, with minimal risk to the business owner.
combined with global job shops, enable fast, customized,
and often greener production. Moreover, general-purpose “Everyone talks about Chinese manufacturing and how
manufacturing technologies and desktop factories could cheap that is,” Case says. “What few realize is that by
trigger the rise of microniche production. Diverse com- converting manufacturing and shipping to JIT [Just-In-
munities could forego many mass-produced goods for Time] a company never has to store the items it is selling.
custom-produced items that meet their specific needs. By reducing the initial cash outlays, a smaller company can
afford to make its own hardware and scale up rapidly.”
You might think of TechShop as a community manufac-
turing facility. Launched in Silicon Valley, TechShop is an As he sees it, the big story is that a disruptive supply
open-access workshop stocked with the most advanced chain, combined with disruptive manufacturing technol-
tools for design and fabrication. It’s similar to a gym in ogy, leads to “disruptive commerce.”
that members pay monthly dues for round-the-clock ac-
cess to 3D printers, sewing machines, laser cutters, mill-
ing machines, electronics design facilities, and an array of
traditional workshop tools.

6
 Unlike assembly lines and dedicated factories,
job shops enable fast, flexible, and
customized production.

SIGNALS:
Ponoko www.ponoko.com
Based in San Francisco, Ponoko is the ultimate short-run job shop. Anyone can submit 3D digital
designs—e.g., furniture designs—that the company then manufactures on demand. Their Web platform
also enables individuals to sell their plans and finished products with no upfront costs, no minimum
orders, and no required inventory. “Consumers no longer have to accept what they find on the shelf,”
says Ponoko co-founder Derek Elley. “Instead they can have something that’s designed and made
especially for them, something ‘individualized’ from scratch.”

Alameda County Computer Resource Center www.accrc.org

As manufacturing changes, so does de-manufacturing. The Alameda County Computer Resource
Center (ACCRC) embodies the maker mantra of “Reduce, Reuse, Remake.” The nonprofit accepts
anything that you can plug into a power outlet. If the equipment works or is repairable, they’ll
refurbish it and find a charity, nonprofit, school, or disabled individual who wants it. If it’s dead, they
disassemble it and send the base elements to green recyclers for processing. On Earth Day and
other special occasions, makers from around the world are invited to scavenge the ACCRC ware-
house for raw materials that are combined and remade into new things. At ACCRC, “obsolescence
is just a lack of imagination.”

Adafruit Industries www.adafruit.com

Ikea’s “some assembly required” furniture has taken off, so why not electronics? Adafruit Industries
sells kits for open-source electronics hardware. Reminiscent of the original personal computers that
were sold as kits, the Adafruit Industries kits range from an external iPod battery pack and recharger
to TV-B-Gone, a prankster’s dream device that turns off any television within 150 feet. The company
is a prime example of how a maker turns prototypes into products while maintaining an open-source
approach to intellectual property.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 7
 citizen r&d:
from r&d labs
to r&d
communities

Trend 3
Drivers: Platforms for Sociabilitiy + Rise of the Professional Amateur

In the last few years, social networking sites have become Jill Panetta, InnoCentive’s chief scientific officer, says
the quintessential services of the Web 2.0 world. Friend- this R&D community has cracked 30% of the problems
of-a-friend networks like MySpace, Facebook, and Linke- posted on the site, “30% more than would have been
dIn are hotbeds for human-human interaction, connect- solved using a traditional, in-house approach.”
ing employers with potential employees, single people
Yet while InnoCentive and Six Sigma are about linking
looking for each other, bands with their fans, and even
individual experts with problems, other R&D communi-
politicians with their supporters. Meanwhile, passionate
ties are specifically designed to leverage the collective
hobbyists and even retired experts in a variety of fields
intelligence of non-experts, or rather, those with more
are blurring the line between professional and amateur.
direct experience than formal expertise. At Patients-
These professional amateurs are tackling problems, creat-
LikeMe, almost 10,000 people with diseases ranging from
ing media, and producing goods that are often superior to
Parkinson’s to Multiple Sclerosis to AIDS congregate on
those of accredited experts and big businesses.
the PatientsLikeMe forums, sharing personal narratives,
When professional amateurs are augmented with plat- medical experiences, and treatment advice.
forms of sociability, the social networks that emerge
The difference between this site and other online health
online and off become thriving hubs for collaborative re-
forums is that experiential data drives PatientsLikeMe,
search and problem solving. Research and development
which has been called by the New York Times “MySpace
moves outside the traditional laboratory to communities
for the afflicted.” Community members share specifics
and networks where ideation, iteration, and cash rewards
about how long symptoms lasted, side effects of new
fuel progress. In these communities, one can seek the
medications, etc. The data is then presented in aggregate
“wisdom of crowds”: the collective intelligence that is
as charts and graphs for patient self-analysis. This ap-
greater than the sum of its parts.
proach points toward a shift in how research and devel-
InnoCentive and Six Sigma are examples of marketplaces opment is done, away from a model where only accred-
for high-quality collective intelligence. Online services ex- ited “experts” are welcome to provide and analyze data
ist where organizations can offer a bounty on problems in and hierarchies are established by the letters after your
chemistry, engineering, design, math, computer science, name or the number of scientific publications you have
physical science, and business. Cash rewards range from on your curriculum vitae.
a few thousand to one million dollars in what InnoCentive
calls a “global knowledge economy” of open innovation.
To keep the crowd wise, both InnoCentive and the par-
ticipating company vet problem solvers before providing
them access to the competitions.

8
 Research and development is no longer relegated to
a lab where only “experts” are welcome. Makers reach
out to communities and networks to ideate,
iterate, and solicit feedback.

SIGNALS:
Participatory Urbanism www.urban-atmospheres.net/ParticipatoryUrbanism
A project of Intel research scientist Eric Paulos, Participatory Urbanism represents a shift in the
mobile device from communication tool to “networked mobile personal measurement instrument.” By
outfitting traditional mobile phones with sensors for air quality, noise pollution, or other environmen-
tal factors, citizens are empowered to collect and share high-resolution data about their immediate
environment in a new form of civic participation.

My Daughter’s DNA www.mydaughtersdna.org

Dr. Hugh Rienhoff’s young daughter has a genetic syndrome that physicians have been unable to
diagnose. So he’s taken matters into his own hands, analyzing his own daughter’s genome and design-
ing a treatment for her. Rienhoff launched My Daughter’s DNA to share what he’s found and encourage
others to do the same. The primary purpose of the site, he says, is to “help the interested community
of geneticists, patients, physicians, scientists, and family members” to understand rare and mysterious
variations in our own genome.

Google Lunar X Prize www.googlelunarxprize.org

The mission? Be the first privately funded team to send a robot to the moon, travel 500 meters, and
transmit data back to the Earth. The winner will be rewarded with $20 million. The effort encourages
communities of “entrepreneurs, engineers, and visionaries” to do what it once took an orchestra of
government agencies, academia, and private sector companies to accomplish.

Lego Mindstorms mindstorms.lego.com

Lego’s programmable robot construction kit is a quintessential example of “lead user innovation”
driven by a passionate ad hoc R&D community. Weeks after Lego launched Mindstorms, hackers
reverse engineered the technology and developed new software and uses for the product. Lego
quickly encouraged these hackers and eventually consulted their community while developing their
next-generation product, Mindstorms NXT.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 9
 networked
artisans:
From garage
inventors to maker
meet-ups

Trend 4
Drivers: Platforms for Sociabilitiy + Quest for Authenticity

The two-guys-in-a-garage story of invention persists as an demonstrated an interactive children’s storybook embed-
archetype of Silicon Valley mythology. It’s a contemporary ded with radio frequency identification tags.
manifestation of the mad scientist holed up in solitude in
“Dorkbot is like informal peer review,” says Dorkbot-SF
his lab, awaiting a great flash of inspiration. But in reality,
founder Karen Marcelo. “The work you present doesn’t
human interaction fuels innovation. This crosspollination
have to be finished. It might even just be an idea that you
of ideas will become easier as makers leverage platforms
want feedback on.”
of sociability to connect with one another. The amount of
time we spend online is driving a newfound appreciation Once you’ve actually built your idea, you might also post
for offline interaction, too. Real world meet-ups, shared it on Instructables.com, a thriving online destination that
workshops, and DIY festivals add a layer of authenticity to embodies the shift from R&D labs to R&D communi-
virtual communities that celebrate ingenuity among peers. ties. It’s a hub of how-to where passionate hackers and
hobbyists post detailed plans for gizmos ranging from a
Dorkbot is a semi-monthly gathering where engineers,
wheelchair for an injured dachshund to a pressurized air-
artists, and designers informally present their work,
powered bicycle.
critique each other’s efforts, share technical tips, and
drink lots of beer. Dorkbot was founded several years ago A team of MIT grads founded the site to harness the “cre-
in New York City by Douglas Repetto, a computer music ative cycles” of tens of thousands of passionate hackers
instructor at Columbia University, who was searching for and hobbyists. “If you can amplify the voices of people in
“artists, hackers, engineers, activists, and crackpots hack- the form of community, they’re really going to share the
ing away in the backroom on some obsession.” things they’re good at,” co-founder Eric Wilhelm said at
IFTF’s 2008 Technology Horizons Spring Exchange.
“I wanted to create an environment where lots of differ-
ent sorts of people could come together and share those Instructables grew out of Thinkcycle.org, a collaborative
obsessions,” he says. “There’s something very compelling system they launched as students for tackling tough tech
about being in the very room where something strange problems in developing nations, from filtering water to
is happening. You’re not reading about it, it’s not stream- treating cholera. Instructables is Thinkcycle for a wider
ing video, it’s not a photo slide show. It’s right there in audience, people who might get a kick out of constructing
front of you. Something might break. And that’s good, and a 3D chocolate printer from Legos, an aquarium coffee
invigorating, and exciting.” table, or a laptop bag made from a discarded wetsuit.
Today, more than a dozen cities around the world have “DIY also means community—you aren’t, in fact, doing it
Dorkbots. At one San Francisco meeting, high-voltage by yourself,” says Dale Dougherty, founder of MAKE and
engineer Greg Leyh, who spends his days working at the Maker Faire. “By creating something, you join communi-
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, outlined his after- ties of practice: hobbyists, enthusiasts, clubs, whatever.
hours effort to build the Advanced Lightning Facility, a You start sharing ideas, recipes, tools, techniques, and
pair of 12-story high transformers that spit out 300-foot connecting to people on the basis of what you make.”
lightning bolts. At another Dorkbot session, Maribeth Back
10
 Makers aren’t tinkering alone in garages, backyards,
and basements. They’re building communities,
forming networks, and meeting up to collaborate
and celebrate their creations.

SIGNALS:
The Shipyard www.theshipyard.org
The Shipyard is a collective compound for makers in Berkeley, California, whose residents build
their workshops in shipping containers. They derive much of their power from an innovative solar
energy system of their own design. While the community members pursue a variety of projects, the
organization’s collective focus is on the development of new alternative energy technologies for
buildings and vehicles.

Threadless.com www.Threadless.com
Members of Threadless, a community-centered online apparel store, submit designs for new T-shirts,
and the “winners” are printed and sold on the site. The individual creators are paid for the designs
and also receive a gift certificate. The site is as much about the thriving community around the prod-
uct as the product itself.

Burning Man www.burningman.com

An annual art event and temporary community, Burning Man takes place in the Black Rock Desert of
Nevada. Tens of thousands of people participate in this eight-day “experiment in community, radical
self-expression, and radical self-reliance.” A city is built, celebrated, and then destroyed, with the goal
being to “leave no trace” behind. No spectators allowed.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 11
 grassroots
economics:
From products
to stories

Trend 5
Drivers: Quest for Authenticity + Rise of the Professional Amateur

We see a growing demand for products and experiences In fact, this sense of personal connection between buyers
that are personalized and authentic. At the same time, the and sellers gives Etsy its authenticity. If you like a particu-
rise of the professional amateurs leads to a supply of prod- lar hand-knitted sweater design but wish it had a smaller
ucts that meet this demand. Historically, linking niche sell- collar or came in another color, you can just email the
ers with niche buyers has been challenging. But the Web creator. For example, an IFTF researcher’s wife wanted
has changed that, spawning a grassroots economy where a quilt made from their son’s baby T-shirts. She found a
individuals and small businesses can design, produce, and quilter on Etsy whose work she liked and the two collabo-
market goods without the need for big retailers or deep- rated to design the quilt at a cost that was a fraction of
pocketed middlemen. These new structures for produc- what a handmade, designer quilt sells for in a department
tion, exchange, and value creation form a framework for store. This grassroots marketplace hints at a shift where
a grassroots economy. Scale is built from the bottom up authentic products actually serve as platforms for stories
through open-source practices, peer-to-peer exchanges, that the manufacturer and the consumer create together.
new models for valuation, and a commons-based approach In the global village, Etsy sellers are the town artisans.
to commercialism. This level of manufacturer–customer
That’s also the philosophy at TCHO, a new chocolate
engagement can lead to an authentic, honest relationship
company in San Francisco that blends DIY ingenuity,
where you just don’t buy into a marketing myth about a
self-taught science, and online community. From hack-
product; you buy into the product itself.
ing together a homebrew chocolate lab for $5,000
“Products are their own media,” says Douglas Rushkoff, instead of buying a $100,000 “pro” system to tricking out
author of Get Back In The Box: Innovation From The In- thirty-year-old chocolate factory equipment with mod-
side Out. “Things communicate better about themselves ern technology, TCHO embodies a maker mindset that
than marketers do. The product has to speak for itself.” its founders call “scrappy not crappy.” Founder Timothy
Childs’s business plan depends on using the Web to
Web site and online community Etsy embodies this kind
transform the supply chain into a supply loop. TCHO will
of authenticity. Think of it as a traditional craft fair, but
use digital video and other media to tell the chocolate’s
virtualized so that anyone can set up a personal store-
life story, opening the lines of communication between,
front and sell goods they make, from hand-woven baby
say, the Chilean farmer who grew a particular bean and
blankets to elegant jewelry fashioned from recycled
the customer on another continent. The entire manufac-
computer parts. With more than 50,000 artisans offering
turing process will be transparent, he explains, from bean
500,000 items to 250,000 registered buyers, Etsy pro-
to bar. TCHO will be the communication hub between
vides sellers with scale—but not at the expense of their
the supplier and the sweet tooth.
independence. In November 2007, buyers spent $4.3 mil-
lion on Etsy purchases. As with eBay, a growing number “TCHO isn’t just selling chocolate, but rather the whole
of Etsy sellers make their entire living via the site. The chocolate experience,” says CEO Louis Rossetto, best
company hosts events, co-working sessions, and work- known as the founder of Wired magazine. “People want
shops where sellers can hone their craft or learn about their products to tell stories and chocolate is the medium
business strategy. From that perspective, Etsy is as much for this particular story.”
12 a platform for sociability as it is a virtual shopping mall.
 Makers are turning away from big retail and venturing out
on their own, often online, to share and sell goods and
services in marketplaces where shoppers want to know
the people and stories behind the products.

SIGNALS:
Amplifier www.amplifier.com
Under the tagline of “undependent distribution,” Amplifier is a fulfillment house for grassroots Inter-
net publishers, from conversational blogs to DIY book authors, who want to launch merchandising
programs. They print products on demand, from T-shirts to full-color coffee table books, and handle
all orders, inventory, fulfillment, and accounting. Their pitch is all about a “virtuous circle”: “By reduc-
ing noise and increasing the time you have with your audience, we actually can increase your oppor-
tunities to create and sell totally new creative works.”

Maker Shed www.makershed.com

Maker Shed is the online store spun out of MAKE: and CRAFT magazines. As the magazines grew in
popularity, the publishers realized that many readers wanted to spend more time building projects
than sourcing parts. Now, the magazines work with individual makers to “kit” their projects and act as
a distribution channel for small companies in the kit business, from an LED-augmented Hula Hoop to
a programmable processor for homebrew electronics. The Maker Shed also sells specialized tools, a
carefully curated selection of books, and offers MAKE:It Workshops where students can gather in the
real world and collaboratively learn how to build, for example, a humanoid robot.

eBay www.ebay.com
eBay continues to sustain broad participation from makers and buyers through a very powerful
instrument of the grassroots economy: reputation systems. When you buy a custom-made tube am-
plifier on eBay, how do you know the transaction won’t end with a sucker’s payoff, in which the seller
gets your cash and never sends the item? At eBay, however, buyers rate sellers, and vice versa, so
that every participant in a transaction can be judged by their reputation. The higher your reputation,
the better prices you can achieve on your goods.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 13
 If you can’t
open it, you
don’t own it:
From closed IP
to open innovation

Trend 6
Drivers: Open-Source Everything + Platforms for Sociability

Open source began as a model for software develop- The makers of the Chumby hope this is the case. The
ment in which developers release an application’s code Chumby is a wireless Internet device in the form of a
for distribution and modification by the users. The users beanbag with a touch-screen. It can track stock prices, tell
then release their modifications back into the commons. you the weather, act as a digital picture frame, play music,
Much of the Internet as we know it today was built on list incoming email, or cycle through popular YouTube clips.
that framework and, in many ways, it drove the rapidly An entirely open-source hardware platform, Chumby runs
transformative effects of the online world. A secondary user-created and also commercial widget applications.
consequence of the open-source story is that a culture
“In the design of the system, we consider not only open-
has emerged that expects that same level of “openness”
source software hackers, but also hardware hackers and
not only in the bits they use, but also in the stuff they buy
artists and ‘crafters’—e.g., people who are equally skilled in
or make. Platforms of sociability enable these makers to
their ability and passion to do non-computer things, such
share their modifications, improvements, and even grand
as metalworking, sewing, carpentry, etc.,” says Chumby co-
failures with their communities. It’s networked innovation
inventor Andrew “bunnie” Huang. Prior to Chumby, Huang
bubbling from the bottom up.
gained online notoriety for hacking the Microsoft Xbox.
In 2004, MAKE: Magazine contributing editor Mister Ja-
All of the Chumby design specs, from the beanbag case
lopy wrote the “Maker’s Bill of Rights.” The manifesto out-
patterns to the circuitry, are available online for free. The
lined the level of importance DIYers place on such things
Chumby officially launched in Spring 2008, but reviews
as replaceable batteries, parts lists included with products,
are strong and hundreds of applications and hacks are
and other requirements to make products hackable and
already available. And with a device like Chumby, only
repairable by their owners. The bottom line is, as Mister
users’ ambitions and skills limit the possibilities of what
Jalopy wrote, “If you can’t open it, you don’t own it.” What
the device can do. Skeptical of its missing keyboard? “If
it means to own something is changing, as more people
you’re a hacker and don’t mind voiding the warranty, you
want the option to customize and personalize their prod-
can probably find a way to make a mouse or keyboard
ucts. Yet, technology companies are racing to prevent this,
work with a Chumby,” states the company’s Web site.
developing digital rights management strategies and other
security features to maintain control over a product even Over the next decade, the most successful products may
after the customer has taken it home. Arguably, though, remain in a permanent state of beta, open for tweaks,
these approaches to secure market-share stifle innovation improvements, and unintended uses appearing in the
and lead to stagnation in the marketplace. unlikeliest of places. The Open Prosthetics Project is a
community hoping to spur innovation in the industry by
In its purest sense, the original concept of open source may
facilitating a community of lead users “whose contribu-
not have broad applications beyond the software running
tions are often of a greater value and at a faster pace
your computer, or especially, running on the Web. Still,
than the companies that produce the products they use.”
openness as a concept is moving way beyond software and
Consumers become co-developers, so long as companies
into myriad facets of our lives, and it’s not about giving away
share and share alike.
the farm, either. In the near future, open IP and innovation,
14 especially in hardware, may be the best way to do business.
 What it means to own a creation is changing
as more makers expect their hardware and
software to remain in beta, open for tweaks,
improvements, and unintended uses.

SIGNALS:
Shared Design Alliance www.shareddesign.org
Launched by the founders of the Open Prosthetics Project, the Shared Design Alliance is an ad-
vocacy group and platform for opening physical products for modification and pushing the design
information into the public domain. They list the following benefits of sharing design: It lowers entry
barriers by providing a platform for low-cost experimentation, allows collaboration across boundar-
ies, accelerates technical evolution, increases societal wealth, and coordinates efforts to benefit
underserved communities.

Thinglink www.thinglink.com
Think of Thinglink as a UPC code for small producers such as artists, designers, makers, and crafters
to share information about the things they make. An individual can create a unique code for any item
and populate a form with information about the object—where the idea originated, the materials and
techniques used, its historical context, etc. You can then download a label for printing or to “tag” your
item virtually. Thinglink can become the storehouse of stories around products, as described earlier
in this paper, or the location for open-source information about products. Even the database and
product code are free and open.

OScar www.theoscarproject.org
Dedicated to “spreading the Open-source idea in the real physical world,” OScar is a German-based
effort to develop a car following the principles of open source. According to the OScar manifesto,
first written almost a decade ago, “Building a car … without an engineering center, without a boss,
without money, and without borders … but with the help of the collective creativity of the Internet
community—that is the meaning of empowerment, the meaning of ‘challenge.’ ” The community of
more than 100 contributors around the world has a very short list of rules. The first three: Trust is the
basis for our cooperation, everyone has a voice, and knowledge is free.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 15
 Implications
Whether your organization deals in bits or in atoms, the imminent transformation of the way things are
designed, tested, produced, and distributed will have a profound impact on the way you work. To that end,
we’ve identified a range of implications spurred by this forecast. Think of these as rules of thumb to help
your organization engage early with the future of making.

Fail Early and Often

Research and development becomes easier as networked communities enable spontaneous trials,
tests, and feedback. The new tools for rapid manufacturing permit organizations to continuously
prototype and tweak products. Meanwhile, the new channels of communication with customers/
collaborators provide organizations a direct line for input. Products can be released in beta, a term
from the software industry, where lead users are encouraged to put them through their paces and
help you uncover and correct mistakes.

Network Your Organization

Many of the best ideas may come from unexpected contributors, including those who are so far out-
side your organization’s walls that they speak a different language. Develop a community around your
products and your brands. Engage with experts and thinkers from a variety of disciplines to provide
an outside-in perspective on your organization, from how it operates to the products in the pipeline.
Invite guest speakers to speak to your team on topics of intellectual or creative interest even if the
direct business applications aren’t immediately apparent. Once you are open to the idea of a net-
worked organization, it’s relatively easy to identify and engage with external networks of exceptional
people through community R&D platforms such as Instructables, InnoCentive, and NineSigma.

Connect with Your Community

Organizations must develop skills for engaging, participating, and fostering communities relevant to
their products and services. The first step is identifying a community to engage with. It’s much easier
(and authentic, see below) to find an existing group of people who share an interest than to start
your own when one (or many) already exists. Identify someone, hopefully internally, who already
participates in online communities to be your “community manager.” This individual keeps conversa-
tions on track and is the liaison between the organization and the community. Eventually, “community
managers” will emerge from the community itself. Reward them. Respect them. They are the “true
believers” in your brand.

Collaborate with Your Customers

Real-world gatherings provide an opportunity for organizations to recognize alpha users and develop
authentic relationships. Organize your own versions of Maker Faires that harness the creativity of
your employees or your communities. Makers within your organization are likely doing valuable, inspi-
rational, and innovative work that goes completely unrecognized. Internally, you could invite your
employee makers to show their projects and personal innovations both around your products and
outside of your core business. Externally, identify and celebrate the maker spirit through contests,
sponsorships of events, and smart ad campaigns that reach lead users of all stripes. Instead of litigat-
ing against makers and policing what your customers do with the products they own, future-thinking
organizations invite makers to the table and reward them for their efforts.

16
 Reward Solution Seekers
Many organizations suffer from “not invented here” syndrome: the rejection of an idea because it
originated outside. Employees are often rewarded for solving a problem, but not for identifying some-
one else’s solution and integrating it. It makes no sense to reinvent the wheel, except, of course, when
it does. For example, an existing solution may be too expensive or inadequate in some way. Also, the
process of reinvention itself can reveal new and valuable information or discoveries. Problem solvers
think deeply, but solution seekers think broadly. A good organization rewards both.

Be Authentic
As cyberspace becomes a layer on top of the physical world and we spend more of our lives online,
a newfound appreciation emerges for authentic experiences, interactions, and products. This quest
for authenticity permeates all aspects of the retail ecology, from manufacturers to customers to
consumers. For example, many purchases will likely be made on the basis of how much the product
conforms to the real, or aspirational, self-image of the buyer. Products that enable a consumer to
think, “I see me in you” feel more authentic and, indeed, are authentic. The most direct path to that
sense of authenticity is for the customers to have a hand in the creation or customization of the
product. That way, they have imbued it with a story and created a personal connection to the item.
Not every sweater can be hand-knit by your grandmother, but almost every product can tell a story
of some kind.

Become Quietly Transparent

As people’s curiosity and knowledge about how things are made increases, they’ll seek out more
information about the products they buy. Where were the materials sourced? How green were the
factories? Pervasive computing technologies will enable products to document their own states,
locations, and movements, to tell their own stories. For organizations, this new realm of visible data
will be useful in understanding their own products’ lifecycles. But for customers and users, this data
is just more “news you can use” when making choices in the marketplace. Don’t brag or you’ll be
called on it. The better approach is to be quietly transparent by sharing what you know, because if
you don’t make it transparent, someone else will.

Err on the Side of Openness

Open-source software usually refers to “source code under a license (or arrangement such as the
public domain) that permits users to study, change, and improve the software, and to redistribute
it in modified or unmodified form.” In recent years, the open-source mindset has been applied to
physical objects, too. Open-source hardware might include circuit diagrams, software that is user
accessible, cases that can be opened up with a standard screwdriver, or anything else that invites the
owner to roll up her sleeves and look under the hood. This kind of openness encourages lead user in-
novation and peer production, the coordinated efforts of large numbers of creative people. The end
result is usually a better mousetrap (or computer mouse). The MAKE: Magazine motto is, “If you can’t
open it, you don’t own it.” Successful organizations will embrace open-source culture in an authentic,
well-considered way that’s good for both the customers and for the bottom line.

INST I T U T E FOR T HE FUTURE

T HE FU T URE OF MA K ING: TH E WAY TH I NGS ARE MADE I S BEIN G REMADE 17