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Final Height Predictions

Final adult height can be predicted based on parental heights, as heredity plays a large role. A child's height at earlier ages can also be used to predict final height, with correlations of around 0.8. Knowing a child's skeletal maturity through wrist x-rays increases prediction accuracy, as children develop at different rates. Methods like Bayley-Pinneau and Tanner-Whitehouse use wrist x-rays and population data to predict height, with a 95% confidence interval of 7-9 cm for individuals. Final height predictions are most accurate for healthy children and less so for sick children.

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190 views

Final Height Predictions

Final adult height can be predicted based on parental heights, as heredity plays a large role. A child's height at earlier ages can also be used to predict final height, with correlations of around 0.8. Knowing a child's skeletal maturity through wrist x-rays increases prediction accuracy, as children develop at different rates. Methods like Bayley-Pinneau and Tanner-Whitehouse use wrist x-rays and population data to predict height, with a 95% confidence interval of 7-9 cm for individuals. Final height predictions are most accurate for healthy children and less so for sick children.

Uploaded by

drtpk
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Final Height Predictions

How to predict the adult height of a child?

The adult height of a child who grows up under favorable environmental


circumstances is, to a large extent, dependent on heredity. The final height
of the child may, therefore, be postulated from parental heights. Indeed,
various methods of final height predictions, which take into account
parental height, have been described. A child’s adult height can also be
predicted from his or her heights at earlier ages, with correlations on the
order of 0.8. However, children differ greatly in rate of development; some
attain maturity at a relatively early age, while others have a slow tempo and
finish growing relatively late. Hence, knowledge of the degree of
development increases the accuracy of final height predictions. The only
practical guide to acquire this knowledge is by assessment of skeletal
maturity, usually estimated from a hand and wrist radiograph.
Using skeletal age for prediction of ultimate height, it is also possible to
make a rough calculation as follows:

Measure the individual’s height, plot it on a standard growth curve, and


extrapolate the value horizontally to the age on the chart that is equal to the
bone age. If the point of extrapolation falls between the 5th and 95th
centiles, then a guarded prediction of normal adult stature can be given.
The closer the extrapolated value is to the 50th centile, the more accurate it
is likely to be.
Other bone age and height prediction methods commonly in use are those
of Bayley-Pinneau, Roche et al and Tanner-Whitehouse. All of these
methods use radiographs of the hand and wrist to assess skeletal maturity
and were based on population data from normal children followed to adult
height. Overall, these methods have 95% confidence intervals of 7 to 9 cm
when used to predict the final height of individuals. It is necessary to
realize, however, that estimations of final height are most accurate in
children who are healthy, and, in the sick, these predictions are less
reliable.
Below is the formula for the prediction of adult height estimated by J.M.
Tanner et al:
Predicted Final Height = Height Coefficient × Present Height (cm) +
Age Coefficient × Chronological Age (years) + Bone Age Coefficient ×
Bone Age (years) + Constant
In girls, these investigators incorporated knowledge of whether or not
menarche had occurred, which improved their predictions.

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