Final adult height can be predicted based on parental heights, as heredity plays a large role. A child's height at earlier ages can also be used to predict final height, with correlations of around 0.8. Knowing a child's skeletal maturity through wrist x-rays increases prediction accuracy, as children develop at different rates. Methods like Bayley-Pinneau and Tanner-Whitehouse use wrist x-rays and population data to predict height, with a 95% confidence interval of 7-9 cm for individuals. Final height predictions are most accurate for healthy children and less so for sick children.
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Final Height Predictions
Final adult height can be predicted based on parental heights, as heredity plays a large role. A child's height at earlier ages can also be used to predict final height, with correlations of around 0.8. Knowing a child's skeletal maturity through wrist x-rays increases prediction accuracy, as children develop at different rates. Methods like Bayley-Pinneau and Tanner-Whitehouse use wrist x-rays and population data to predict height, with a 95% confidence interval of 7-9 cm for individuals. Final height predictions are most accurate for healthy children and less so for sick children.
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Final Height Predictions
How to predict the adult height of a child?
The adult height of a child who grows up under favorable environmental
circumstances is, to a large extent, dependent on heredity. The final height of the child may, therefore, be postulated from parental heights. Indeed, various methods of final height predictions, which take into account parental height, have been described. A child’s adult height can also be predicted from his or her heights at earlier ages, with correlations on the order of 0.8. However, children differ greatly in rate of development; some attain maturity at a relatively early age, while others have a slow tempo and finish growing relatively late. Hence, knowledge of the degree of development increases the accuracy of final height predictions. The only practical guide to acquire this knowledge is by assessment of skeletal maturity, usually estimated from a hand and wrist radiograph. Using skeletal age for prediction of ultimate height, it is also possible to make a rough calculation as follows:
Measure the individual’s height, plot it on a standard growth curve, and
extrapolate the value horizontally to the age on the chart that is equal to the bone age. If the point of extrapolation falls between the 5th and 95th centiles, then a guarded prediction of normal adult stature can be given. The closer the extrapolated value is to the 50th centile, the more accurate it is likely to be. Other bone age and height prediction methods commonly in use are those of Bayley-Pinneau, Roche et al and Tanner-Whitehouse. All of these methods use radiographs of the hand and wrist to assess skeletal maturity and were based on population data from normal children followed to adult height. Overall, these methods have 95% confidence intervals of 7 to 9 cm when used to predict the final height of individuals. It is necessary to realize, however, that estimations of final height are most accurate in children who are healthy, and, in the sick, these predictions are less reliable. Below is the formula for the prediction of adult height estimated by J.M. Tanner et al: Predicted Final Height = Height Coefficient × Present Height (cm) + Age Coefficient × Chronological Age (years) + Bone Age Coefficient × Bone Age (years) + Constant In girls, these investigators incorporated knowledge of whether or not menarche had occurred, which improved their predictions.