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Kondratif 1

Ikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist (1892-1938) who observed that capitalist economies could be analyzed by wave theory. He theorized that economic forces repeated themselves in a pattern of a 54to 55-year boom-and-bust cycle. For his effort, and his failure to proclaim the death of capitalism, he was arrested and eventually executed by the Stalinist regime.

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Ang Ming Kuan
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229 views1 page

Kondratif 1

Ikolai Kondratieff was a Russian economist (1892-1938) who observed that capitalist economies could be analyzed by wave theory. He theorized that economic forces repeated themselves in a pattern of a 54to 55-year boom-and-bust cycle. For his effort, and his failure to proclaim the death of capitalism, he was arrested and eventually executed by the Stalinist regime.

Uploaded by

Ang Ming Kuan
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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FORECASTING

The Boom &

My Kondratieff Wave
Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff believed that a collapse
by Koos van der Merwe
in the economy would be caused by companies that would not
be able to repay their loans and would go bankrupt. Are we ikolai Kondratieff was a Russian econo-
at that point? mist (1892-1938) who observed that capi-
talist economies could be analyzed by
wave theory. Kondratieff theorized that
economic forces repeated
themselves in a pattern of a
54- to 55-year boom-and-bust
c > c le. He described a boom's
collapse as characterized by
"renunciation of debt." He be-
lieved that the collapse would
be caused by companies that
would not be able to repay
their loans and would go bank-
rupt. Whether it is company
debt, mutual fund popularity,
technology investment, or a
mortgage subprime excess,
Kondratieff would have de-
/\ scribed the bursting of the
present stock market bubble
as just another "loan renun-
ciation," which today's
subprime crisis basically boils
down to.
For his effort, and his fail-
ure to proclaim the death of
capitalism, he was arrested and
eventually executed by the
Stalinist regime.

THE
WAVE
Many writers have argued that
the Kondratieff wave, or the
K-wave as it is commonly
known, is only a study of long
cycles of debt buildup and re-
pudiation; that it is not exclu-
sively a cycle about price in-
flation and deflation periods.
Yet deflation is effectively
caused by the collapse of debt.
We could then argue that if
this were the case, any long-
term correction in the stock
market up or down would ef-
fectively be the K-wave.
Kondratieff further theorized
the following: \\

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