RISK RETURN 10

Current riskfree rate = 6.50% Risk premium for stocks= 5.50% Current stock price $35.00
Number of periods of data 53 Riskfree rate during period 6.00% Current Annual DP $0.00
 RISK RETURN 11

Time period Index Price(Stock) DPS(Stock) Split Factor Index Level Return(Stock)Return(Mkt) (R(jt)-Rj)^2 (R(mt)-R(m))^2 (R(jt)-R(j))
1 1 $30.75 1 179.63 (R(mt)-R(m))
2 1 $28.00 1 181.19 -8.94% 0.87% 0.0110873482791 6.005224244E-06 0.00025803
3 1 $27.75 $0.00 1 180.66 -0.89% -0.29% 0.0006147501281 0.0001976886707 0.00034861
4 1 $27.50 1 179.83 -0.90% -0.46% 0.000618745362 0.0002474121228 0.00039126
5 1 $26.38 1 189.55 -4.07% 5.41% 0.0032027513975 0.0018417808356 -0.00242874
6 1 $26.00 $0.00 1 191.85 -1.44% 1.21% 0.0009162992866 9.978561528E-07 -3.0238E-05
7 1 $28.25 1 190.92 8.65% -0.48% 0.0049946556633 0.0002554438614 -0.00112954
8 1 $26.00 1 188.63 -7.96% -1.20% 0.009122466 0.0005349796347 0.00220915
9 1 $25.75 $0.00 1 182.08 -0.96% -3.47% 0.0006492797458 0.0021030604521 0.00116854
10 1 $25.50 1 189.82 -0.97% 4.25% 0.000654045923 0.000984309884 -0.00080236
11 1 $28.50 1 202.17 11.76% 6.51% 0.0103594686802 0.0029080742249 0.00548873
12 1 $29.25 $0.00 1 211.28 2.63% 4.51% 0.0001092068009 0.0011509743664 0.00035453
13 1 $28.25 1 211.78 -3.42% 0.24% 0.0025053646627 7.688740336E-05 0.0004389
14 1 $27.75 1 226.92 -1.77% 7.15% 0.0011265890012 0.0036426303326 -0.00202577
15 1 $26.00 $0.00 1 238.90 -6.31% 5.28% 0.0062297312784 0.0017354607921 -0.00328808
16 1 $28.50 1 235.52 9.62% -1.41% 0.0064462050894 0.0006392428942 -0.00202995
17 1 $27.25 1 247.35 -4.39% 5.02% 0.0035671034346 0.0015283569279 -0.00233491
18 1 $23.00 $0.00 1 250.84 -15.60% 1.41% 0.0295251662162 8.847574513E-06 -0.0005111
19 1 $18.25 1 236.12 -20.65% -5.87% 0.0494561213515 0.0048745391307 0.01552662
20 1 $23.00 1 252.93 26.03% 7.12% 0.0597354605706 0.0036069080921 0.01467857
21 1 $19.50 $0.00 1 231.32 -15.22% -8.54% 0.0282372724627 0.0093264859053 0.0162282
22 1 $20.25 1 243.98 3.85% 5.47% 0.000510577172 0.0019004634401 0.00098505
23 1 $23.00 1 249.22 13.58% 2.15% 0.0143848564903 0.0001069589534 0.0012404
24 1 $21.00 $0.00 1 242.17 -8.70% -2.83% 0.010572385365 0.0015541992204 0.00405359
25 1 $31.25 1 274.08 48.81% 13.18% 0.2230008464991 0.0145520472147 0.05696594
26 1 $38.00 1 284.20 21.60% 3.69% 0.0400537845915 0.0006650442512 0.00516116
27 1 $38.50 $0.00 1 289.20 1.32% 1.76% 7.331579471E-06 4.170796121E-05 -1.7487E-05
28 1 $47.00 1 288.36 22.08% -0.29% 0.0419895986649 0.0001971114463 -0.00287691
29 1 $43.88 1 290.10 -6.64% 0.60% 0.0067648260192 2.601969161E-05 0.00041955
30 1 $44.00 $0.00 1 304.10 0.27% 4.83% 0.0001724192902 0.0013782022813 -0.00048747
31 1 $47.75 1 318.66 8.52% 4.79% 0.004811043906 0.0013501151494 0.00254862
32 1 $52.75 1 329.80 10.47% 3.50% 0.0078936931336 0.0005675742218 0.00211666
33 1 $57.75 $0.00 1 321.83 9.48% -2.42% 0.0062285473123 0.0012461772202 -0.00278601
34 1 $26.00 1.5 251.79 -32.47% -21.76% 0.1159681102707 0.0523336540281 0.07790401
35 1 $21.50 1 230.30 -17.31% -8.53% 0.0356992708636 0.009309157614 0.01822992
 RISK RETURN 12

36 1 $26.50 $0.00 1 247.08 23.26% 7.29% 0.0469556637583 0.0038101498073 0.01337565

37 1 $25.50 1 257.07 -3.77% 4.04% 0.0028731135926 0.0008583244385 -0.00157037
38 1 $28.25 1 267.82 10.78% 4.18% 0.0084598703597 0.0009414053582 0.00282209
39 1 $29.38 $0.00 1 258.89 4.00% -3.33% 0.0005824700506 0.0019783248953 -0.00107346
40 1 $31.00 1 261.33 5.51% 0.94% 0.0015424444858 2.9248587E-06 -6.7167E-05
41 1 $30.75 1 262.16 -0.81% 0.32% 0.0005726496774 6.334589052E-05 0.00019046
42 1 $36.13 $0.00 1 273.50 17.50% 4.33% 0.0253108263491 0.001031755607 0.00511024
43 1 $34.75 1 272.02 -3.82% -0.54% 0.0029225905501 0.0002737836387 0.00089452
44 1 $28.00 1 261.52 -19.42% -3.86% 0.0441462911044 0.0024735878327 0.01044987
45 1 $27.50 $0.00 1 271.91 -1.79% 3.97% 0.0011372222858 0.0008176283266 -0.00096427
46 1 $24.75 1 278.97 -10.00% 2.60% 0.013424833484 0.0002199110883 -0.00171822
47 1 $20.25 1 273.30 -18.18% -2.03% 0.0390788711458 0.0009897215445 0.0062191
48 1 $23.75 $0.00 1 277.72 17.28% 1.62% 0.0246408123394 2.537771508E-05 0.00079078
49 1 $26.00 1 297.47 9.47% 7.11% 0.0062206754039 0.0035975665468 0.00473068
50 1 $25.75 1 288.86 -0.96% -2.89% 0.0006492797458 0.0016063398105 0.00102126
51 1 $26.25 $0.00 1 294.87 1.94% 2.08% 1.261593705E-05 9.352539127E-05 3.435E-05
52 1 $29.00 1 309.64 10.48% 5.01% 0.0079025559 0.0015174761338 0.00346294
53 1 $32.50 1 320.52 12.07% 3.51% 0.010988085962 0.0005761202483 0.00251604
54 0 $29.00 $0.00 1 317.98 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
55 0 $30.50 1 346.08 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
56 0 $30.00 1 351.45 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
57 0 $32.25 $0.00 1 349.15 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
58 0 $33.75 1 340.36 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
59 0 $34.75 1 345.99 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
60 0 $34.50 $0.00 1 353.40 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0
 RISK RETURN 13

REGRESSION STATISTICS AND RISK PARAMETERS

RISK AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Intercept (Alpha) = -0.45%
Slope (Beta)= 1.77880824
Rf(1- Beta) = -0.38%
Intercept-Rf(1-Beta)= -0.07%

VARIANCE STATISTICS
Variance of the stock= 0.01911051
Variance of the market = 0.00277992
Systematic variance= 0.0087961
Unsystematic variance= 0.01031441
R squared = 46.03%

USING BETA
In estimating expected returns:
Riskfree Rate = 6.50%
Historical return premiu 5.50%
Expected return= 16.28%

In forecasting prices:
Current price= $35.00
Annualized DPS= $0.00
Predicted prices:
- One year from now $40.70
 RISK RETURN 14

- Two years from now $47.33

- Three years from now $55.03
- Four years from now $63.99
- Five years from now $74.41
 RISK RETURN 15

(R(mt)-R(m))