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Oil Field Development - Unefa

This document provides input parameters and calculations for an oil field development project. It includes estimates of oil reserves using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Various input variables are modeled as distributions, and key output metrics like NPV are calculated for the P10, P50, and P90 scenarios. The document poses a series of questions for analysis, including risk analysis of NPV, production profiles, reserve estimates, portfolio optimization, and reliability analysis.

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Rodolfo E Pérez S
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© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
207 views18 pages

Oil Field Development - Unefa

This document provides input parameters and calculations for an oil field development project. It includes estimates of oil reserves using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Various input variables are modeled as distributions, and key output metrics like NPV are calculated for the P10, P50, and P90 scenarios. The document poses a series of questions for analysis, including risk analysis of NPV, production profiles, reserve estimates, portfolio optimization, and reliability analysis.

Uploaded by

Rodolfo E Pérez S
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Oil Field Development

Variables de Entrada

Time to plateau
Well rate
Wells to drill
Minimum rate
Discount factor
Well cost
Facility size
Oil margin
Plateau ends at
Plateau rate is

2.00
6.15
10
18.00
8.00
12.00
40.00
2.00
20.0
90.0

years
mbopd
mbopd
%
$mm
mbopd
$/bbl
% of reserves
% of reserves annually

Variables de Decisin
Abbreviations Used
mmbbls: million barrels
mbopd: thousand barrels per day
$mm: million dollars
$/bbl: dollars per barrel

Valores Calculados

Reserves

299.95 mmbbls

Max plateau rate

Facilities Costs
Output (mbd) Cost ($mm)

739.60 mbopd

Plateau rate
Build up production
Plateau production

40.00 mbopd
14.60 mmbbls
45.39 mmbbls

20
40
60

80
140
180

Plateau ends at
Decline factor
Production life

5.11 years
0.0335 M Efectiva
28.97 years

80
100
120
140

210
260
290
320

Discounted Reserves
Well Costs
Facilities Costs
Total Inversin

135.88
120.00
140.00
260.00

mmbbls
$mm
$mm
$mm

Objectivo: maximizar en el P10

11.76 $mm

VPN
Perfil de Produccion Calculado
Year

Annualized
Rate

Annual
Qo

Cumulative
Oil

Cumulative
Discounted Oil

(mbopd)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38

13.33
26.67
40.00
40.00
40.00
39.47
38.18
36.93
35.71
34.54
33.40
32.30
31.24
30.21
29.21
28.25
27.32
26.42
25.55
24.71
23.90
23.11
22.35
21.62
20.91
20.22
19.55
18.91
17.76
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

(mmb)
4.87
9.73
14.60
14.60
14.60
14.41
13.94
13.48
13.03
12.61
12.19
11.79
11.40
11.03
10.66
10.31
9.97
9.64
9.33
9.02
8.72
8.44
8.16
7.89
7.63
7.38
7.14
6.90
6.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

(mmb)
4.87
14.60
29.20
43.80
58.40
72.81
86.74
100.22
113.26
125.86
138.05
149.84
161.24
172.27
182.93
193.25
203.22
212.86
222.19
231.21
239.93
248.37
256.53
264.42
272.05
279.43
286.57
293.47
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95

(mmb)
4.87
13.88
26.40
37.99
48.72
58.52
67.31
75.17
82.21
88.52
94.16
99.22
103.75
107.80
111.43
114.68
117.59
120.20
122.54
124.63
126.50
128.17
129.67
131.02
132.22
133.30
134.26
135.13
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88

39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95
299.95

135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88
135.88

Supuestos
Reserves:

SubModelo POES

Plateau ends at

min=15, probable 25 y maximo 38

Well Cost
Discount factor:
well rate:

hoja de datos
hoja de datos
Generar Sub-Modelo Segn Ecuacin de Darcy (Hoja Qo)

Time to Plateau:
Minimum rate:
Plateau rate is

min=1,4 prob=2 max= 3,4


min=15 y max=30, hay un valor probable pero no hay certeza de obtener
min=4 y max 16, hay un valor probable pero no hay certeza de obtenerlo

Preguntas:
1. Analisis de Riesgo VPN para los percentiles P10, P50, P90 (Incluir graficos de correlacin tipo I y Tipo II), generar informe y analisis.
2. Generar perfil de Produccin a 20 aos Probabilisticos para P10, P50 y P90 (Usar graficas de Excel)
3. Calculo de reservas probabilisticas Probadas, Probables y Posibles
4. Generar un portafolio para 5 Escenarios posibles & Construir curva de Frontera de Eficiencia VPN (vs) Desviacion Estandar (vs) Inversin
5. Generar una solucin con el mejor VPN en un caso Pesimista (P10) - Usar OptQuest
6. Generar Anlisis de Confiabilidad con Bootstrap para los percentiles 10, 50, 90

7. Generar una Matriz de Correlaccin, de ser necesario correlacionar al modelo


8. Generar un cuadro de decisin en funcin del Numero de Pozos a Perforar y el manejo de facilidades de superficie
9. Si han llegado ha esta pregunta los felicitos van por el 40% del curso, de lo contrario se pronstica un viernes tardeee

Estimacin de Reservas
Valores deterministico

Area (acres)
Thickness (feet)
Porosity (%)
Water Saturation (%)
Form. Volume Factor (bbl/stb)
POES (mmstb)
Recovery Factor (%)
Recoverable Oil Zone (mmstb)

Total Recoverable Oil (mmstb)

Zone 1
8050
68
23
24%
1.30
576.34
28%
161.37

Zone 2
6100
62
18
26%
1.38
283.96
29%
82.35

299.95

10%
147.91

Zone 3
5100
43
22
24%
1.42
200.81
28%
56.23

50%
207.80

90%
287.20

Datos
Porosity (%) Zone 1
24.13
14.87
32.70
11.97
24.47
19.07
25.34
17.67
28.57
25.26
10.07
15.70
14.34
15.14
25.79
14.72
18.78
32.73
20.62
16.45

Porosity (%) Zone 2


28.12
24.19
24.41
14.25
21.22
33.85
20.57
15.14
18.35
15.11
27.96
17.32
19.02
15.25
16.73
16.19
8.49
19.29
23.70
23.84

Porosity (%) Zone 3

Valores Probabilistico
Variables de Incertidumbre
area 1
lognormal
4569 6890
lognormal
60 85
datos
betapert
16 - 24 - 30
uniforme
1.1 1.8
uniforme cont

Porosity (%) Zone 3


11.58
27.14
16.78
21.89
14.66
27.21
14.72
20.87
28.25
31.27
37.74
21.96
13.27
34.18

26 - 32

area 2
3056 6009
30 70
datos
20 - 25 -36
1.09 1.4
28 - 39

area 3
3456
30
datos
22 - 24 -28
1.2
24 - 34

5678
48

1.6

Estimacin del Gasto de Produccin de un Pozo

Se recopilaron datos de las diversas variables necesarias para estimar el Gasto de produccin de un nuevo pozo a perforar
1422003 para lo cual se recolectaron los resultados de algunos registros tomados en "pozos vecinos", y la opinin de e
yacimiento (VER TABLAS INFERIORES)

Q0

0.00708 ANP K Pe Pwf

Datos de Propiedades - Opinin de Expertos


Variable
Mnimo
Ms Probable
K
390
600
Viscosidad ( )
20
50
Bo (BY/BN)
1.06
1.06
Rd
5906
Rpozo
5
Dao (S)
-6
-2

ANP
1274.4
1306.8
1233.9
820.8
777.6
896.4
1209.6
1020.6
772.2
1517.4
604.8
1517.4
2100
1279.8
1074.6
1382.4
1166.4
475.2
293.4
217.8

---------------->

Rd

Dao
Bo ln

Rpozo

702.76
3013.20
2458.93

Ecuacin de Darcy

Mximo
760
70
1.07

Datos de Propiedades - Registros


Registro Build Up
Pe (psi)
Pozo X1
2720
Pozo X2
3360
Pozo X3
3136
Pozo X4
3488
Pozo X5
2848
Pozo X6
3494
Pozo X7
3158
Pozo X8
2998
Pozo X9
2976
Pozo X10
3120
Pozo X11
3280
Pozo X12
2848
Pozo X13
2960
Pozo X14
2982
Pozo X15
3056
Pozo X16
2960
Pozo X17
2864
Pozo X18
2768
Pozo X19
2672
Pozo X20
2576

Pwf (psi)
2529
2766
2551
2837
2044
2801
2507
2418
2391
2484
2590
2245
2594
2855
2462
2543
2645
1937
1714
2267

Pe-Pwf (psi)
191
594
585
651
804
693
651
580
585
636
690
603
366
127
594
417
219
831
958
309

Well Cost(prom)
$mm
11.89
19.83
11.35
20.58
5.69
18.59
17.21
7.91
22.23
10.83
17.53
12.33
4.36
12.65
11.41
9.97
12.59
11.54
8.68
12.90
14.23
16.17
13.56
19.68
7.10
18.94
16.85
12.79
9.29
8.74
17.63
11.79
14.35
8.49
16.47
17.70
10.27
13.55
5.93
3.34
12.87
6.89
15.90
14.30
21.85
12.76
15.11
14.19

Discount factor
%
4.1
2.5
4.3
3.7
4.2
4.6
3.4
7.9
2.7
6.2
2.4
4.6
2.3
6.2
2.37
6.83

cuando es menor de 15 se calcula con = Perc

cuando tienes el minimo y el maximo utilizas lo

13.40
20.09

or de 15 se calcula con = Percentil entre (se colocan los datos / 0,05, que es el minimo y 0,95, que es el maximo)

el minimo y el maximo utilizas lognormal

s el maximo)

caso
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J

media
vpn
129.43
74.15
136.06
135.73
74.97
-70.42
124.3
124
138.43
67.68

desv. Std
74.17
81
73.4
72.78
74.84
109.16
69.65
70.77
72.7
42

inv.
150.02
152.89
224.63
123.25
205
336.23
149
150.53
149.38
176.49

z
200

150

100

50

0
0
-50

-100

-150

20

40

60

A
B
C
D
E
F
80

100

120

140

G
H
I
J

1. Analisis de Riesgo VPN para los percentiles P10, P50, P90 (Incluir graficos de correlacin tipo I
Respuesta 1

icos de correlacin tipo I y Tipo II), generar informe y analisis.

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