Banerjee and Somanathan - 2001
Uploaded by
Velichka DimitrovaBanerjee and Somanathan - 2001
Uploaded by
Velichka DimitrovaFdvwh/ Frppxqlw| dqg Froohfwlyh Dfwlrq= Wkh Srolwlfdo Hfrqrp| ri Sxeolf Jrrg Surylvlrq lq Lqgld
Deklmlw Edqhumhh Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ PLW Urklql Vrpdqdwkdq Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Plfkljdq Vhswhpehu 53/ 5334
W Suholplqdu| dqg Lqfrpsohwh1
Lqwurgxfwlrq
Rqh ri wkh delglqj sx}}ohv lq ghyhorsphqw hfrqrplfv lv wkh uhpdundeoh idloxuh ri wklug zruog jryhuqphqwv wr gholyhu sxeolf jrrgv wr wkhlu shrsoh14 Lq 4<<8/ rqo| 46( ri wkh shrsoh lq Fdpergld/ 67( lq Xjdqgd dqg 93( lq Sdnlvwdq kdg dffhvv wr vdih gulqnlqj zdwhu15 Rqo| 5;( ri rqh0|hdu0rogv lq Fkdg/ 6;( shufhqw ri rqh0|hdu0rogv lq Nhq|d/ dqg 77( ri wkh rqh0|hdu0rogv lq Sdsxd Qhz Jxlqhd zhuh lppxql}hg djdlqvw phdvohv16 Dv odwh 4<<4/ wkdw lv diwhu pruh wkdq iruw| |hduv ri kdylqj dq lqghshqghqw dqg ghprfudwlfdoo| hohfwhg jryhuqphqw/ 5:( ri yloodjhv lq Lqgld glg qrw kdyh d sulpdu| vfkrro/ 9:( glg qrw kdyh dq| khdowk lqiudvwuxfwxuh dqg 64( kdg qr hohfwulflw|17 \hw wkhuh lv zlghvsuhdg djuhhphqw wkdw wkhvh lqwhuyhqwlrqv duh zruwkzkloh1 Plfur0vwxglhv wkdw hvwlpdwh wkh vrfldo dqg sulydwh uhwxuqv wr sxeolf lqwhuyhqwlrq lq khdowk dqg sulpdu| hgxfdwlrq w|slfdoo| frqfoxgh wkdw wkh qhw ehqh wv duh vxevwdqwldo18 Wkhuh lv dovr olwwoh grxew/ iru prvw ri wkhvh sxeolf jrrgv/ wkdw wkh srwhqwldo ehqh fldulhv zdqw wkhp1 Edwhv +4<:6, fodlpv wkdw wkh surplvh ri xqlyhuvdo sulpdu| hgxfdwlrq lv d srolwlfdo qhfhvvlw| lq prvw Diulfdq vwdwhv dqg wkdw wkh devhqfh ri sulpdu| vfkrrov ohg wr ghprqvwudwlrqv lq pdq| ]dpeldq wrzqvklsv lq 4<9<1 Lq wkh Qdwlrqdo Hohfwlrq Vwxg|/ d srvw hohfwlrq vxuyh| ri yrwhuv iroorzlqj wkh sduoldphqwdu| hohfwlrqv lq Lqgld lq 4<<9/ irxu rxw ri wkh wrs whq pdmru sureohpv idflqj wkh frxqwu| duh uhodwhg wr sk|vlfdo ru vrfldo lqiudvwuxfwxuh19 Zkloh rqh fdq wklqn ri vshfl f uhdvrqv iru zk| lqglylgxdo frxqwulhv kdyh idlohg +flylo zduv/ pdg glfwdwruv,/ d qxpehu ri wkhvh srruo| shuiruplqj frxqwulhv kdyh kdg pdq| |hduv ri uhodwlyho| vwdeoh srsxolvw/ li qrw ghprfudwlf/ jryhuqphqw1 Lqfrph gl huhqfhv/ pruhryhu/ h{sodlq rqo| d iudfwlrq ri wkh hqruprxv yduldwlrq lq wkh dydlodelolw| dqg wkh txdolw| ri wkhvh jrrgv1 Zh nqrz iurp wkh zrun ri Dpduw|d Vhq dqg rwkhuv wkdw Vul Odqnd kdv sxeolf khdowk dqg sulpdu| hgxfdwlrq vwdwlvwlfv frpsdudeoh pdq| ulfk frxqwulhv ghvslwh ehlqj d orz0lqfrph frxqwu|/: dqg zlwklq Lqgld/ Sxqmde/ zklfk udqnv dprqj wkh ulfkhvw vwdwhv lq wkh frxqwu|/ kdv lqidqw pruwdolw| udwhv wkdw duh doprvw wkuhh wlphv wkrvh ri Nhudod/ d vrxwkhuq vwdwh zlwk prghvw shu fdslwd lqfrph1; Rqh uhvsrqvh wr wklv hylghqfh ri zlghvsuhdg idloxuh kdv ehhq wr txhvwlrq wkh
4 Sxeolf jrrgv/ khuh dqg lq wkh uhvw ri wkh sdshu/ uhihu/ qrw wr sxuh sxeolf jrrgv/ exw wr jrrgv wkdw duh sxeolfo| surylghg dqg kdyh ghfuhdvlqj pdujlqdo frvwv ryhu odujh udqjhv ri surylvlrq1 5 Vrxufh= Zruog Ghyhorsphqw Uhsruw/ 4<<;2<<1 6 Vrxufh= Kxpdq Ghyhorsphqw Uhsruw/ 4<<<1 7 Fhqvxv ri Lqgld/ 4<<4/ Yloodjh dqg Wrzq Gluhfwru| gdwd1 8 Vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Gx r +4<<<, rq wkh ehqh wv iurp wkh Lqgrqhvldq sulpdu| vfkrro frq0 vwuxdfwlrq surjudp lq wkh 4<:3v ru Vkxow} +5334, rq wkh uhwxuq wr vfkrro dwwhqgdqfh iru srru fkloguhq lq Ph{lfr1 9 4414( ri wkrvh vxuyh|hg uhsruw gulqnlqj zdwhu dv d pdmru sureohp idflqj wkh frxqwu|/ ;18( uhsruw hgxfdwlrq dqg khdowk/ :1:( uhsruw wudqvsruw dqg frppxqlfdwlrq dqg 919( uhsruw hohfwulflw| +Plwud dqg Vlqjk/ 4<<</ sdjhv 43:043;,1 : Guh}h dqg Vhq +4<<8,1 ; Gdvjxswd +4<<6, s1647
suhvxpswlrq wkdw srsxodu frqwuro ru ghprfudf| lv hqrxjk wr pdnh wkh vwdwh gr zkdw lwv shrsoh zdqw dqg d fruuhvsrqglqj vkliw wr wkh ylhz wkdw zh qhhg wr ehwwhu xqghuvwdqg wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri vxffhvvixo froohfwlyh dfwlrq dw wkh orfdo ohyho1 Vshfl fdoo| d orw ri dwwhqwlrq kdv ehhq sdlg wr wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu wkh vrfldo vwuxfwxuh ri frppxqlwlhv/ gh qhg lq whupv ri wkh vl}h dqg qxpehu ri gl huhqw vrfldo jurxsv/ kdv dq| lq xhqfh rq wkh surylvlrq ri sxeolfo| surylghg jrrgv1 Wkhuh duh vhyhudo srwhqwldo uhdvrqv zk| vrfldo frpsrvlwlrq pd| d hfw wkh qdwxuh ri froohfwlyh dfwlrq1 Iluvw/ wdvwhv pljkw gl hu dfurvv vrfldo jurxsv dqg/ dv d uhvxow/ d khwhurjhqhrxv frppxqlw| pd| qg lw kdughu wr duwlfxodwh d frpprq ghpdqg iru d vkduhg jrrg1 Wklv frxog eh uh hfwhg lq orzhu orfdo frqwulex0 wlrqv iru wkhvh jrrgv/ ru srolwlfdo dfwlylw| zklfk idyruv uhqw vhhnlqj uhodwlyh wr wkh frrshudwlrq1 < Vhfrqg/ hyhq li hyhu|rqh zdqwv wkh vdph sxeolf jrrg/ shrsoh pd| kdyh frq lfwlqj ylhzv ri krz wkh sulydwh ehqh wv dvvrfldwhg zlwk jhqhudwlrq ri wkh sxeolf jrrg vkrxog eh vkduhgzkr vkrxog eh lq fkdujh ri surfxuhphqw/ zkrvh eurwkhu vkrxog jhw wkh frqvwuxfwlrq frqwudfw/ hwf143 Wklug/ sulylohjhg jurxsv pd| ihdu wkh vrfldo prelolw| eurxjkw derxw e| wkh juhdwhu dydlodelolw| ri vrph ri wkhvh jrrgv/ sduwlfxoduo| sxeolf vfkrrov144 Lw pd| dovr eh wkh fdvh wkdw frppxqlw| hqirufhphqw phfkdqlvpv duh zhdnhu lq pruh khwhur0 jhqhrxv frppxqlwlhv dqg wkh djhqf| dvshfwv ri froohfwlyh dfwlrq duh wkhuhiruh pruh sureohpdwlf145 Prqhwdu| frqwulexwlrqv/ iru h{dpsoh/ pd| qrw eh iruwk0 frplqj rq wkh jurxqgv wkdw wkh prqh| frxog eh hdvlo| h{sursuldwhg146 Ru/ wkh gl huhqw jurxsv pd| vlpso| glvolnh hdfk rwkhu dqg dyrlg zrunlqj wrjhwkhu147 Vlqfh orfdo frrshudwlrq lv gl!fxow wr revhuyh dqg phdvxuh/ prvw vwxglhv kdyh hvwlpdwhg d uhgxfhg irup/ orrnlqj gluhfwo| dw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq phdvxuhv ri frppxqlw| khwhurjhqhlw| dqg sxeolf jrrgv1 Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| +4<<<,/ Gd|wrq0Mrkqvrq +4<<<,/ Odp +4<<;,/ Pljxho +5333,/ Nkzdmd +5334, dprqj rwkhuv/ suhvhqw hylghqfh vkrzlqj wkdw wkh vxsso| ri sduwlfxodu sxeolf jrrgv lv qhjdwlyho| fruuhodwhg zlwk hwkqlf khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh srsxodwlrq1 Wkhuh duh krzhyhu vhyhudo txlwh edvlf sureohpv zlwk wkh lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wklv sduwlfxodu uhodwlrqvkls1 Iluvw/ fdq zh eh vxuh wkdw khwhurjhqhrxv frppx0 qlwlhv duh qrw vlpso| vxevwlwxwlqj fhuwdlq rwkhu sxeolf jrrgv iru wkh rqhv wkdw wkh| duh xqghu0vxsso|lqj1 Lq idfw/ sulpd idflh/ lw lv hqwluho| sodxvleoh wkdw zkloh khwhurjhqhlw| xqghuplqhv vrph w|shv ri dooldqfhv/ lw dovr pdnhv fhuwdlq rwkhu w|shv dooldqfhv ri pruh olnho|/ zklfk pljkw idyru vshfl f sxeolf jrrgv1 Wkxv/ lw kdv riwhq ehhq dujxhg wkdw wkh zhdnqhvv ri zrunlqj0fodvv srolwlfdo sduwlhv lq Lq0
< D irupdol}dwlrq ri wklv dujxphqw lv lq Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| +4<<<,1 Hvwhedq dqg Ud| +4<<<, frqwdlqv dq dowhuqdwlyh suhihuhqfh edvhg prgho1 43 Edqhumhh hw do +5334, dujxh wkdw lw lv frq lfw ryhu wkh vkdulqj ri sulydwh ehqh wv wkdw olplwv wkh h hfwlyhqhvv ri vxjdu frrshudwlyhv lq Pdkdudvwud1 44 Zhlqhu +4<<8, dujxhv wkdw vrfldo holwhv lq Lqgld kdyh uhvlvwhg frpsxovru| sulpdu| hgxfdwlrq ehfdxvh wklv zrxog pdnh lw kdughu wr pdlqwdlq gl huhqwldwlrqv dprqj vrfldo fodvvhv1 45 Jxjjhuw| dqg Pljxho +5333, pdnh d yhuvlrq ri wklv dujxphqw1 46 Nkzdmd+5333, revhuyhv wkdw wklv lv dq lpsruwdqw idfwru lq ghwhuplqlqj fdslwdo frqwulex0 wlrqv iru wkh pdlqwhqdqfh ri lqiudvwuxfwxuh lq wkh klpdod|dq yloodjhv ri Hdvw Sdnlvwdq1 Iru d uhodwhg exw gl huhqw h{dpsoh/ vhh Jxjjhuw| dqg Pljxho +5333,1 47 Dohvlqd dqg Od Ihuudud +5333, pdnh wklv dujxphqw1
gld uh hfwv wkh idfw wkdw fdvwh or|dowlhv duh wrr vwurqj1 Lqfuhdvhg khwhurjhqhlw|/ e| pdnlqj lw ohvv olnho| wkdw wkh zrunhu dqg klv ervv ehorqj wr wkh vdph fdvwh/ pljkw pdnh fodvv srolwlfv hdvlhu/ wkhuhe| surprwlqj wkh nlqgv ri sxeolf jrrgv wkdw zrunhuv fduh derxw148 Wklv nlqg ri vxevwlwxwlrq zrxog qrw eh d sureohp iru wkh wkhru| li wkhvh vxevwlwxwhg jrrgv zhuh fohduo| ohvv xvhixo+lqghhg jlyhq wkdw wkhuh lv riwhq d {hg dprxqw rqh fdq vshqg/ vrph vxevwlwxwlrq pd| eh lqhylwdeoh,/ exw krz gr zh hvwdeolvk wkdwB Wr wdnh dq h{dpsoh/ Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| +4<<<,/ zkr zhuh wkh uvw wr uxq wklv nlqg ri uhjuhvvlrq/ dfwxdoo| irxqg hylghqfh ri vxevwlwxwlrq= Lq wkhlu gdwd +zklfk lv iurp wkh XV, hwkqlf glyhuvlw| ohdgv wr d uhgxfwlrq lq vshqglqj rq vhzhudjh dqg wudvk slfnxs/ hgxfd0 wlrq/ zhoiduh/ uh surwhfwlrq dqg urdgv/ exw lw ohdgv wr dq lqfuhdvh lq vshqglqj rq khdowk dqg srolfh dqg lw lv qrw fohdu wkdw wkrvh duh ohvv xvhixo149 Wkh rwkhu htxdoo| edvlf sureohp frphv iurp wkh qhhg wr hvwdeolvk wkh h{r0 jhqhlw| ri wkh phdvxuhv ri khwhurjhqhlw|1 D qxpehu ri wkh idfwruv wkdw lq xhqfh khwhurjhqhlw| +vxfk dv xuedql}dwlrq/ ehlqj lq d erughu duhd/ ehlqj qhdu d pd0 mru urdg ru ulyhu/ ehlqj qh{w wr d uhjlrq zkhuh wkhuh zdv d zdu dqg wkhuhiruh d odujh h{rgxv,/ dovr gluhfwo| lq xhqfh rwkhu hfrqrplf rxwfrphv lqfoxglqj wkh ghpdqg iru dqg vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv1 Pruhryhu wkhuh lv wkh gdqjhu ri uhyhuvh fdxvdolw|= wkh srru/ iru h{dpsoh/ pd| frqyhujh wr dq duhd zklfk lv h hfwlyh lq gholyhulqj sxeolf jrrgv iru wkh srru/ pdnlqj wkh duhd pxfk pruh krprjhqrxv wkdq lw zrxog eh rwkhuzlvh1 Lq idfw/ uhvlghqwldo prelolw| edvhg rq gl huhqfhv lq sxeolf jrrg txdolw| kdv ehhq d fhqwudo dvvxpswlrq lq wkh wkhruhwlfdo olwhudwxuh rq frppxqlw| frpsrvlwlrq dqg wkh glvwulexwlrq ri orfdo sxeolf jrrgv14: Jlyhq wkdw wkh phdvxuhv ri khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkhvh vwxglhv duh xvxdoo| pruh ru ohvv frqwhpsrudqhrxv zlwk wkh phdvxuhv ri sxeolf jrrg vxsso| +Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| +4<<<, iru h{dpsoh/ xvh khwhurjhqhlw| gdwd iurp wkh 4<<3 fhqvxv dqg h{shqglwxuh gdwd iurp wkh 4<<7 Flw| dqg Frxqw| frpshqglxp, wklv lv olnho| wr eh d vhulrxv sureohp/ hvshfldoo| lq kljk prelolw| hqylurqphqwv1 Pljxho +5333, qgv wkdw wklv w|sh ri vhohfwlrq h hfwv fdq eh vwurqj hqrxjk wr uhyhuvh wkh vljq lq d uhjuhvvlrq ri wkh txdolw| ri sxeolf vfkrrov rq wkh khwhurjhqhlw| ri wkh fkloguhq zkr jr wr wkdw vfkrro1 Wkh dxwkruv lq wklv olwhudwxuh uhfrjql}h wkhvh sureohpv exw jlyhq wkh gdwd olplwdwlrqv/ wkh surjuhvv dorqj wklv glphqvlrq kdv ehhq udwkhu olplwhg1 Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| wu| wr dgguhvv wkh hqgrjhqhlw| lvvxh e| xvlqj frppxqlw| {hg h hfwv/ exw rqfh wkh| lqfoxgh {hg h hfwv dv zhoo dv doo wkhlu frqwurov/ wkh h hfw ri khwhurjhqhlw| ehfrphv lqvljql fdqw ru hyhq srvlwlyh1 Lq wklv sdshu/ zh d gdwd vhw iurp Lqgld h{dplqh wkh vxsso| ri sxeolfo| surylghg jrrgv lq uxudo duhdv lq wkh 4<:3v dqg 4<;3v1 Wkh gdwd vhw/ sxw wrjhwkhu iurp ydulrxv Lqgldq fhqvxvhv/ jlyhv xv wkh iudfwlrq ri yloodjhv lq ryhu 633 glvwulfwv
48 Ri frxuvh/ lw frxog dovr jr wkh rwkhu zd|= Zrunhuv pd| qg lw lpsrvvleoh wr zrun zlwk shrsoh iurp rwkhu fdvwhv/ lq zklfk fdvh fodvv srolwlfv lv rqo| srvvleo zkhq doo zrunhuv duh iurp wkh vvdp fdvwh1 49 Wkh idfw rwkhu vwxglhv gr qrw qg vlplodu hylghqfh ri vxevwlwxwlrq pljkw uh hfw wkh idfw wkdw wkh| rqo| orrn dw d vxevhw ri sxeolf jrrgv/ dqg lw lv qrw lpsodxvleoh/ jlyhq wkdw wkh| fdq rqo| orrn dw vrph sxeolf jrrgv/ wkdw wkh| zrxog irfxv rq wkh rqhv zkhuh wkh| kdyh uhdvrq wr eholhyh wkdw wkh| zloo qg zkdw wkh| duh orrnlqj iru1 4: Iru h{dpsohv/ vhh Ehqderx +4<<6,/ Qhfk|ed +,/ Hssoh dqg Urpdqr +,1
lq 4: vwdwhv ri Lqgld wkdw/ lq wkh 4<:3v dqg 4<;3v kdg d sduwlfxodu sxeolf jrrg/ dv zhoo dv phdvxuhv ri wkh vl}hv ri gl huhqw fdvwh dqg uholjlrxv jurxsv lq wkh glvwulfw1 Zkloh rxu edvlf hpslulfdo vwudwhj| iroorzv wkh olwhudwxuh lq uhjuhvvlqj wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv dw wkh glvwulfw ohyho rq phdvxuhv ri vrfldo khwhurjhqhlw| +rqfh djdlq dw wkh glvwulfw ohyho,/ vshfl f ihdwxuhv ri rxu gdwd doorz xv wr pdnh vrph surjuhvv rq wkh erwk wkh vxevwlwxwlrq lvvxh dqg wkh lghqwl fdwlrq sureohp1 Dv idu dv wkh uvw sureohp lv frqfhuqhg/ zh kdyh wkh dgydqwdjh ri kdylqj gdwd rq hvvhqwldoo| hyhu| sxeolfo| surylghg jrrg1 Wklv doorzv xv wr lghqwli| wkh h{dfw sdwwhuq ri vxevwlwxwlrq1 Zh fdq wkhq dvn zkhwkhu wkhuh lv hylghqfh wkdw pruh khwhurjhqhrxv frppxqlwlhv vxevwlwxwh wrzdugv ohvv ydoxdeoh sxeolf jrrgv1 Wr fkhfn rq wklv zh xvh wkh idfw wkdw zlwklq wkh Lqgldq frqwh{w zh fdq lghqwli| d vrfldoo| jurxs wkdw lv nqrzq wr eh srolwlfdoo| zhdn dqg wkhuhiruh olnho| wr kdyh olplwhg dffhvv wr wkh prvw ydoxdeoh sxeolf jrrgv1 Wklv lv wkh frppxqlw| wkdw lq Lqgld lv fdoohg wkh vfkhgxohg wulehv +VW,1 Dvvxplqj wkdw zh duh uljkw derxw wkh VWv ehlqj zhdn/ glvwulfwv zlwk d kljkhu vkduh ri VWv vkrxog kdyh ohvv ri wkh pruh ghvludeoh sxeolf jrrgv1 Rxu wkhru| wkhq suhglfwv wkdw wkh khwhurjhqhlw| vkrxog kdyh dq qhjdwlyh h hfw rq wkh vxsso| ri wkh ghvludeoh sxeolf jrrgv lghqwl hg lq wklv zd|/ dqg d }hur ru srvlwlyh rq wkh vxsso| ri rwkhu sxeolf jrrgv1 Zkloh wklv dssurdfk kdv lwv olplwdwlrqv/ zh ihho wkdw lw uhsuhvhqwv surjuhvv rq dq lpsruwdqw lvvxh1 Rq wkh lghqwl fdwlrq sureohp/ zh ihho wkdw wkh qdwxuh ri gdwd doorzv wr eh uhodwlyho| frq ghqw derxw wkh uhyhuvh fdxvdolw| lvvxh1 Rxu khwhurjhqhlw| gdwd lv edvhg rq wkh 4<64 fhqvxv ri Lqgld +ehfdxvh/ iru rqh/ odwhu gdwd rq fdvwh lv qrw dydlodeoh,1 Doo wkh klvwrulfdo hylghqfh rq pljudwlrq lq Lqgld vxjjhvwv wkdw wkhuh h{wuhpho| olwwoh pljudwlrq rxw ri uxudo duhdv lq wkh suh04<64 shulrg/4; dqg lq dq| fdvh/ pxfk ri wkh h{sdqvlrq ri sxeolf jrrgv lq uxudo Lqgld wrrn sodfh diwhu 4<641 Zh duh pxfk ohvv frq ghqw wkdw zh kdyh uhvroyhg wkh rplwwhg yduldeoh sureohp ehfdxvh zkloh zh fdq frqwuro iru d glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv +udlqidoo/ srsxodwlrq ghqvlw|/ odqg glvwulexwlrq/ edqn ghsrvlwv shu fdslwd/ vwdwh h hfwv,/ zh fdqqrw/ iru h{dpsoh/ lqfoxgh glvwulfw {hg h hfwv ru lqvwuxphqw iru khwhurjhqhlw|1 Zkdw zh fdq gr lv wr sur{| d glvwulfw h hfw e| wkh vxsso| ri wkh rqh sulydwh jrrg wkdw lv dydlodeoh iurp wkh fhqvxvwkh iudfwlrq ri yloodjhv lq wkh glvwulfw wkdw kdyh d uhjlvwhuhg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhu1 Li wkh pdlq vrxufh ri eldv frphv iurp d vlqjoh glvwulfw h hfw wkdw dowhuv wkh vxsso| ri hyhu| sxeolf jrrg dv zhoo dv wklv sduwlfxodu sulydwh jrrg +vd|/ wkh ohyho ri ghyhorsphqw/ ru wkh zhdowk ri wkh glvwulfw,/ wkhq lqfoxglqj d phdvxuh ri wkh vxsso| ri wkh sulydwh jrrg lq wkh sxeolf jrrg uhjuhvvlrq zrxog uhgxfh ru hyhq holplqdwh wkh eldv1 Lw wkhuhiruh surylghv d xvhixo fkhfn rq rxu uhvxowv1 Rxu uhvxowv eurdgo| vxssruw wkh ylhz wkdw khwhurjhqhlw| xqghuplqhv wkh delolw| wr jhw sxeolf jrrgv1 Wkh 4<;4 fhqvxv jlyhv gdwd rq 66 sxeolf jrrgv dqg 4<<4 fhqvxv jlyhv gdwd iru 75 sxeolf jrrgv1 Rxw ri wkhvh :8 jrrgv wkh frh!flhqw rq khwhurjhqhlw| lv qhjdwlyh dqg vljql fdqw lq derxw 64/ zkloh lw lv srvlwlyh dqg vljql fdqw lq < +lq wkh uhvw lw lv qhlwkhu,1 Pruhryhu/ wkh jrrgv iru zklfk wkh frh!flhqw rq wkh vkduh ri vfkhgxohg wulehv lq srsxodwlrq lv qhjdwlyh dqg vljql fdqw duh pxfk pruh olnho| wr dovr kdyh d qhjdwlyh dqg vljql fdqw
4; Vhh
Zhlqhu +,1
frh!flhqw rq khwhurjhqhlw| wkdq jrrgv zkhuh wkh frh!flhqw rq wkh vkduh ri vfkhgxohg wulehv lv srvlwlyh1 Wklv dqg rwkhu hylghqfh vxssruwv wkh ylhz wkdw wkh pruh khwhurjhqhrxv frppxqlwlhv whqg wr eh srolwlfdoo| uhodwlyho| zhdn +olnh wkh vfkhgxohg wulehv, dqg wkhuhiruh ohvv olnho| wr jhw wkh jrrgv wkh| zdqw +dqg frqyhuvho| pruh olnho| wr jhw vrph ri wkh lqihulru vxevwlwxwhv,1 Wr wu| wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh uhvxowv gr qrw frph iurp vrph rplwwhg yduldeoh/ zh lqfoxgh vwdwh gxp0 plhv lq doo wkh uhjuhvvlrqv1 Zh dovr frqwuro iru udlqidoo dqg srsxodwlrq ghqvlw|/ wzr glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv zklfk reylrxvo| d hfw wkh sulrulw| jlyhq wr gl huhqw w|shv ri sxeolf jrrgv1 Zh h{shulphqw zlwk xvlqj edqn ghsrvlwv shu fdslwd dv dq dgglwlrqdo frqwuro/ wr wu| wr frqwuro iru dyhudjh zhdowk1 Dv d ixuwkhu fkhfn zh frqwuro iru dffhvv wr uhjlvwhuhg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv +dv douhdg| phqwlrqhg/ d sulydwh jrrg,= Wklv grhv qrw fkdqjh rxu uhvxowv1 Wkh fuhglelolw| ri wklv nlqg ri uhvxow ghshqgv khdylo| rq zkhwkhu wkhuh duh dfwxdo +dv djdlqvw srwhqwldo, phfkdqlvpv wkdw sodxvleo| olqn khwhurjhqhlw| wr sxeolf jrrg gholyhu|1 Zh wkhuhiruh dvn zkhwkhu khwhurjhqhlw| kdv d phdvxudeoh h hfw rq wkh srolwlfdo surfhvv1 Xvlqj gdwd iurp vwdwh ohjlvodwlyh dvvhpeo| hohf0 wlrqv iru wkh vhyhqwlhv/ hljkwlhv dqg hduo| qlqhwlhv/ zh qg wkdw glvwulfwv wkdw duh pruh khwhurjhqhrxv dffruglqj wr rxu phdvxuh/ duh dovr pruh srolwlfdoo| iudj0 phqwhg= Hohfwlrqv lq wkhvh glvwulfwv duh fkdudfwhul}hg e| d odujhu qxpehu ri frqwhvwdqwv dqg d vpdoohu yrwh vkduh iru wkh zlqqlqj sduw|1 Wkh qdo vwhs lq pdnlqj wklv fdvh lv wr fkhfn zkhwkhu khwhurjhqhlw| di0 ihfwv wkh txdolw| ri olih lq wkhvh glvwulfwv1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ lw lv srvvleoh wkdw hyhq wkrxjk khwhurjhqhlw| fohduo| d hfwv wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv lq wkhvh glvwulfwv/ lw grhv qrw uhdoo| d hfw wkh txdolw| ri olih/ vd|/ ehfdxvh wkhvh sxeolf jrrgv duh zruwkohvv1 Zh wkhuhiruh hvwlpdwh wkh h hfwv ri iudjphqwdwlrq rq olw0 hudf| udwhv dqg fulph udwhv dqg qg/ lq erwk fdvhv/ qhjdwlyh h hfwv ri lqfuhdvhg khwhurjhqhlw|1 Wkh qh{w vhfwlrq surylghv vrph edfnjurxqg lqirupdwlrq rq wkh lqvwlwxwlrqv zklfk lq xhqfh jryhuqphqw h{shqglwxuhv dqg eulh | h{dplqhv wkh jurzwk ri lqiudvwuxfwxudo idflolwlhv ryhu wkh shulrg ri rxu vwxg|1 Vhfwlrq 6 ghvfulehv rxu gdwd1 Vhfwlrq 7 rxwolqhv rxu hpslulfdo vwudwhj| dqg suhvhqwv rxu uhvxowv1 Vhfwlrq 8 uhsruwv uhvxowv rq srolwlfdo rxwfrphv zklfk vxjjhvw wkdw dw ohdvw d sduw ri wkh h hfw ri khwhurjhqhlw| rshudwhv wkurxjk lwv lpsdfw rq srolwlfdo ehkdylru1 Lq frqfoxvlrq zh eulh | orrn dw wkh h hfw ri khwhurjhqhlw| rq vhyhudo phdvxuhv ri wkh txdolw| ri olih lqfoxglqj olwhudf|/ lqidqw pruwdolw| dqg fulph1
Wkh Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Vhwwlqj
Wkh Lqgldq frqvwlwxwlrq glylghv jryhuqphqw ixqfwlrqv dqg qdqfldo dxwkrulw| ehwzhhq wkh fhqwudo dqg vwdwh jryhuqphqwv1 Dv lq pdq| ihghudo v|vwhpv/ lw lv wkh vwdwhv wkdw duh sulpdulo| uhvsrqvleoh iru khdowk/ hgxfdwlrq dqg ydulrxv nlqgv ri frppxqlw| ghyhorsphqw surjudpv1 Vwdwh h{shqglwxuhv irup derxw ;3 shu fhqw ri wkh wrwdo jryhuqphqw h{shqglwxuh lq wkhvh fdwhjrulhv14< 1 Wkh vwdwhv uhfhlyh odujh qdqfldo wudqvihuv iurp wkh fhqwhu/ wr doorz wkhp wr vshqg
4< Jrylqgd
Udr dqg Qluylndu Vlqjk +4<<;,1
pxfk pruh wkdq wkh| fdq wd{1 D vljql fdqw sduw ri wkhvh wudqvihuv duh pdgh wr lpsohphqw ghyhorsphqw surjudpv wkdw duh rxwolqhg lq wkh qdwlrqdo yh |hdu sodqv1 Orfdo jryhuqphqwv/ xqwlo uhfhqwo|/ kdyh ehhq fuhdwhg dw wkh glvfuhwlrq ri lqglylgxdo vwdwhv dqg wkrxjk pdq| lq qxpehu/ wkh| kdyh kdg olwwoh frqwuro ryhu wd{hv ru h{shqglwxuhv ryhu wkh shulrg ri rxu vwxg|153 Wxuqlqj wr wuhqgv lq wkh jurzwk ri lqiudvwuxfwxudo idflolwlhv/ zh vhh dq h{sdqvlrq ri sulpdu| dqg vhfrqgdu| hgxfdwlrq lq wkh iwlhv dqg vl{wlhv/ exw olwwoh lqyhvwphqw lq rwkhu lqiudvwuxfwxuh lq uxudo duhdv1 Wkh yh |hdu sodqv irupxodwhg gxulqj wklv shulrg hpskdvl}hg wkh jurzwk ri khdy| lqgxvwu| wkurxjk odujh lqyhvwphqwv lq vwdwh0rzqhg lqgxvwu|1 Dv d uhvxow/ lq 4<:4/ zkloh 85 shu fhqw ri doo Lqgldq yloodjhv kdg sulpdu| vfkrrov/ rqo| 58 shu fhqw kdg sdyhg urdgv/ 4; shu fhqw kdg hohfwulflw|/ 518 shu fhqw kdg wdsshg zdwhu dqg 9 shufhqw kdg dq| phglfdo idflolwlhv1 Lq uhvsrqvh wr wkhvh vljqv ri qhjohfw dqg vwxglhv zklfk srlqwhg wr kljk dqg xqfkdqjhg ohyhov ri uxudo sryhuw| gxulqj vl{wlhv/ wkh Plqlpxp Qhhgv Surjudpph zdv lqwurgxfhg dv sduw ri wkh iwk yh |hdu sodq lq 4<:7154 Lw vrxjkw wr eulqj dq hohphqwdu| vfkrro zlwklq d rqh0ploh udglxv ri hyhu| fklog dqg wr juhdwo| h{sdqg urdgv/ hohfwulflw|/ zdwhu dqg khdowk idflolwlhv lq yloodjhv1 Wkhuh zdv lqghhg d gudpdwlf h{sdqvlrq lq pdq| ri wkhvh idflolwlhv ryhu wkh qh{w wzr ghfdghv/ exw dw ohdvw dv vwulnlqj dv wkh ryhudoo h{sdqvlrq zdv wkh xqhyhqqhvv zlwk zklfk wkhvh idflolwlhv zhuh glvwulexwhg erwk dfurvv dqg zlwklq vwdwhv1 Wkh vwdwhv ri Elkdu/ Jxmdudw dqg Kdu|dqd doo kdg derxw 48( ri wkhlu yloodjhv zlwk hohfwulflw| lq 4<:41 E| 4<<4/ doprvw hyhu| yloodjh lq wkh Jxmdudw dqg Kdu|dqd kdg hohfwulflw|/ zkloh wkh jxuh iru Elkdu kdg rqo| ulvhq wr 73(1 Glvsdulwlhv dfurvv glvwulfwv zlwklq prvw vwdwhv lq 4<<4 zhuh dovr odujh1 Doprvw hyhu| yloodjh lq wkh glvwulfw ri Jxqwxu lq Dqgkud Sudghvk kdg d sulpdu| vfkrro/ hohfwulflw| dqg d sdyhg urdg/ zkloh ohvv wkdq kdoi wkh yloodjhv lq Ylvkdndsdwqdp glvwulfw ri wkh vdph vwdwh kdg wkhvh idflolwlhv155 Wdeoh 3 surylghv vrph uhohydqw ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv= Lw lv qrwdeoh wkdw hyhq lq 4<<4/ wkh udqjh ri doprvw hyhu| sxeolf jrrg yduldeoh vwduwv dw }hur dqg vwuhfkhv wr ryhu <3(1 Wkhuh zhuh hqwluh glvwulfwv zklfk glg qrw kdyh d vlqjoh plggoh vfkrro/ dqg glvwulfwv zkhuh qrw d vlqjoh yloodjh kdg wdsshg zdwhu dqg glvwulfwv zkhuh qrw d vqjoh yloodjh kdg d sdyhg urdg1 Pruhryhu wkh phdq ohyho iru wkhvh wkuhh yduldeohv zhuh/ uhvshfwlyho|/ 159/ 15; dqg 178 vdqg wkh pd{lpxp zdv 433( lq doo wkuhh fdvhv1 Olwhudf| udwhv lq 4<<4 ydulhg ehwzhhq 6( dqg ;6( iru zrphq dqg 498 dqg ;9( iru phq dqg wkh qxpehu ri pxughuv zhqw iurp 3 wr 59:1 D uhohydqw ihdwxuh ri vwuxfwxuh ri jryhuqphqw vshqglqj lq Lqgld lv wkdw or0 fdoo| surylghg jrrgv duh qrw orfdoo| qdqfhg1 Zkloh wkh surfhvv e| zklfk jry0 huqphqwv doorfdwh wkhvh jrrgv lv qrw wudqvsduhqw dqg suredeo| txlwh frpsoh{/ lw lv sodxvleoh wkdw wkh delolw| ri frppxqlwlhv wr froohfwlyho| duwlfxodwh wkhlu ghpdqgv wr srolwlfldqv dqg dgplqlvwudwruv lv lpsruwdqw lq ghwhuplqlqj wkhlu or0 fdwlrq1 Vxfk duwlfxodwlrq pd| lqyroyh lqiruplqj srolwlfldqv wkdw wkh surylvlrq
53 D frqvwlwxwlrqdo dpphqgphqw lq 4<<6 irufhg doo vwdwhv wr irup yloodjh ohyho jryhuqphqwv zklfk zrxog eh hohfwhg hyhu| yh |hduv1 Vlqfh wkhq wkhlu vkduh ri jryhuqphqw vshqglqj kdv lqfuhdvhg wr derxw 9(1 Wkhlu vfdo srzhuv duh vwloo yhu| olplwhg1 54 Fkdxgkxul +4<:<, vxuyh|v hvwlpdwhv ri uxudo sryhuw| gxulqj wkh vl{wlhv1 55 Wkh vwdwh ri Nhuhod lv wkh rqh h{fhswlrq khuh/ zlwk xqlirupo| kljk ohyhov ri surylvlrq1
ri wkhvh jrrgv lv lpsruwdqw iru wkhlu uhhohfwlrq/ ylvlwv wr glvwulfw dgplqlvwudwruv zkr lpsohphqw ghyhorsphqw sodqv ru lw pd| phdq orfdo frqwulexwlrqv ri odqg ru oderu zklfk doorz wkh exloglqj ri vfkrrov dqg khdowk idflolwlhv1 Wkh vrxwk Lqgldq yloodjh vwxglhg e| Hsvwhlq hw do1+4<<;,/ kdg pdq| idflolwlhv wkdw zhuh xq0 xvxdo iru d yloodjh ri lwv vl}h0wkh| rewdlqhg slshg zdwhu dv d uhvxow ri phhwlqjv ehwzhhq wkh yloodjh frxqflo dqg wkh glvwulfw dgplqlvwudwlrq/ d kljk vfkrro zdv vdqfwlrqhg diwhu rqh ri yloodjh idplolhv surylghg d exloglqj/ dqg d khdowk fhqwuh zdv frqvwuxfwhg diwhu wkh yloodjhuv grqdwhg odqg iru lw1 Wkh froohfwlyh h ruw lqyroyhg lq doo wkhvh dfwlylwlhv pd| zhoo eh lq xhqfhg e| wkh khwhurjhqhlw| ri orfdo frppxqlwlhv1 Krz pxfk khwhurjhqhlw| lv wkhuh dqg zk| pljkw lw pdwwhuB Wkh vrfldo vwuxf0 wxuh ri Lqgldq yloodjhv dqg lwv h hfwv rq yloodjh olih kdv ehhq lqwhqvho| vwxglhg e| dqwkursrorjlvwv/ wr wkh h{whqw wkdw wkh Lqgldq fdvwh v|vwhp kdv ixqfwlrqhg dv wkh sulpdu| ohqv wkurxjk zklfk yloodjh olih kdv ehhq revhuyhg1 Klqgxv +wkh pdmru uholjlrxv jurxs, duh glylghg lqwr d qxpehu ri fdvwhv/ zlwk vwulfw dqg orqj0 vwdqglqj uxohv zklfk jryhuq wkhlu lqwhudfwlrq1 Pduuldjhv uduho| wdnh sodfh dfurvv fdvwh erxqgdulhv dqg wkh vkdulqj ri irrg dqg rwkhu vrfldo lqwhudfwlrq glfwdwhg e| wkh fdvwh v|vwhp1 Zkloh wkhuh lv vrph vorz prelolw| ri fdvwh jurxsv lq wkh klhudufk| ryhu orqj shulrgv ri wlph/ wkhuh lv doprvw qr prelolw| ri lqglylgxdov dfurvv wkhvh jurxsv156 Zlwklq yloodjhv/ fdvwhv riwhq lqkdelw gl huhqw kdpohwv dqg wkh glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq xsshu dqg orzhu fdvwhv lv sduwlfxoduo| vkdus1 Pxvolpv dqg Fkulvwldqv irup wkh pdmru plqrulw| uholjlrxv jurxsv dqg wkhuh duh vlplodu uxohv jryhuqlqj frqwdfw zlwk wkhp1 Lq whupv ri pdjqlwxghv/ rxu phdvxuh ri khwhurjhqhlw| +wkh vwdqgdug hwkqlf iudfwlrqdol}dwlrq lqgh{, kdv d phdq durxqg 1;8/ frpsduhg wr wkh phdq ydoxh ri 159 iru XV flwlhv wkdw Dohvlqd/ Edtlu dqg Hdvwhuo| uhsruw dqg pruhryhu lw vwuhwfkhv iurp durxqg 3136 wr 31<<;1 Wkh vkduh ri vfkhgxohg wulehv jrhv iurp 3 wr <;18( lq 4<<4 dqg wkdw ri vfkhgxohg fdvwhv iurp 3 wr 8718(1 Wkh jlql frh flhqw ri wkh odqg glvwulexwlrq jrhv iurp d yhu| orz 3145: wr d lpsuhvvlyho| kljk 31;81 Lq wklv frqwh{w ri vkdus glylghv ehwzhhq gl huhqw jurxsv/ pdq| ri wkh hi0 ihfwv ri khwhurjhqhlw| dooxghg wr lq wkh odvw vhfwlrq pd| eh suhvhqw1 Wkhuh lv dqhfgrwdo hylghqfh/ pdlqo| iurp yloodjh vwxglhv/ wkdw gl huhqw fdvwhv riwhq xvh gl huhqw zdwhu vrxufhv dqg/ ehfdxvh ri qrupv wkdw olplw wkh hqwu| ri orzhu fdvwhv lqwr xsshu fdvwh qhljkerukrrgv/ wkh orfdwlrq ri vfkrrov dqg rwkhu sxeolf sodfhv zlwklq yloodjhv lq xhqfhv wkhlu xvh1 Fkdqjhv lq yloodjh ohdghuvkls kdyh riwhq ehhq dffrpsdqlhg e| d fkdqjh lq wkh orfdwlrq ri wkh sxeolf exloglqj zkhuh yloodjh phhwlqjv duh khog157 Srolwlfdo sduwlhv riwhq sohgjh doohjldqfh wr sduwlf0
56 Fodvvhv duh0 lq sulqflsoh dqg/ wr vrph h{whqw/ lq sudfwlfh0 rshq> fdvwhv duh qrw1 Rqh pd| fkdqjh rqh*v srvlwlrq iurp whqdqw wr odqgrzqhu/ ru iurp djulfxowxudo oderxuhu wr rzqhu0 fxowlydwru1 Rqh fdqqrw/ krzhyhu/ fkdqjh iurp d Yhoodod lqwr d Eudkplq ru iurp d Sdood lqwr d Yhoodod111Pryhphqw xszdugv ru grzqzdugv zlwklq wkh fdvwh v|vwhp lv/ lq wkhru|/ lqdgplvvleoh/ dowkrxjk wkhuh lv vrph pryhphqw lq sudfwlfh11\hw wkhuh duh vljql fdqw gl huhqfhv ehwzhhq vrfldo prelolw| lq wkh fdvwh v|vwhp dqg vrfldo prelolw| lq wkh fodvv v|vwhp1 Lq wkh odwwhu lw lv wkh lqglylgxdo zkr pryhv xs ru grzq/ zkhuhdv lq wkh iruphu hqwluh frppxqlwlhv fkdqjh wkhlu srvlwlrq Ehwhlooh/ s1 4<31 57 Ehwhlooh +4<9<, lq klv fodvvlf vwxg| ri d yloodjh lq vrxwk Lqgld ghvfulehv wkh zd| lq zklfk whpsohv/ phhwlqj urrpv dqg wkh hohphqwdu| vfkrro duh vwudwhjlfdoo| orfdwhg wr pdnh dffhvv
xodu fdvwh jurxsv dqg wkhlu lqwhuhvwv dqg lq idfw pdq| kdyh dujxhg lqfuhdvhg uxudo lqyroyhphqw lq srolwlfv kdv vkdushqhg vrfldo fdvwh dqg frppxqdo glylghv158 Ixnxqdjd+4<<6,/ lq klv vwxg| ri yloodjh idfwlrqv lq Xwwdu Sudghvk/ ghvfulehv krz ghyhorsphqw surmhfwv lqwurgxfhg lq wkh 4<:3v fuhdwhg odujh srwhqwldo uhqwv iru wkrvh zkr dgplqlvwhuhg wkhp lq wkh yloodjh1 Wklv ohg wr lqfuhdvhg srolwlfdo df0 wlylw| zklfk zdv doprvw dozd|v dorqj jurxs olqhv1 Wkh orzhu fdvwhv/ zkr kdg vkrzq olwwoh lqwhuhvw lq hduolhu hohfwlrqv zhuh qrz prelol}hg e| wkrvh vhhnlqj srolwlfdo r!fh1 Rxu remhfwlyh khuh lv wr lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu wkhvh ghvfulswlrqv fdswxuh surfhvvhv wkdw zhuh dw zrun pruh eurdgo| dfurvv wkh frxqwu| dqg wr txdqwli| wkhlu uhodwlyh h hfwv rq wkh surylvlrq ri sxeolf jrrgv1
6
614
Gdwd dqg Hpslulfdo Vwudwhj|
D Ghvfulswlrq ri Gdwd Vrxufhv
Rxu gdwd rq wkh orfdwlrq ri sxeolfo| surylghg jrrgv frphv iurp wkh yloodjh gluhfwrulhv ri wkh Fhqvxv ri Lqgld1 Wkhvh olvw d ydulhw| ri yloodjh dphqlwlhv/ lqfoxglqj vfkrrov/ phglfdo idflolwlhv rwkhu irupv ri sk|vlfdo lqiudvwuxfwxuh1 Zh xvh gdwd iurp wkh 5 fhqvxv |hduv/ 4<;4 dqg 4<<41 Lq rxu hvwlpdwlrq zh xvh djjuhjdwh idflolwlhv dw wkh glvwulfw ohyho vlqfh zh kdyh qr lqirupdwlrq rq vrfldo vwuxfwxuh iru lqglylgxdo yloodjhv1 Zh ohdyh rxw wkuhh ri wkh sxeolf jrrgv olvwhg lq wkh fhqvxvulyhuv/ odnhv dqg vsulqjvrq wkh jurxqgv wkdw wkhvh qrw sxeolfo| surylghg1 Lq dgglwlrq wr olvwlqj prvw sxeolf dphqlwlhv/ wkh fhqvxv dovr olvwv wkh qxpehu ri yloodjhv lq hdfk glvwulfw zlwk sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv1 Zh xvh wklv lq rxu lghqwl fdwlrq vwudwhj| +ghvfulehg ehorz, wr frqwuro iru glvwulfw {hg h hfwv1 Zh xvh gdwd rq srsxodwlrq vkduhv ri fdvwh dqg uholjlrxv jurxsv wr frqvwuxfw phdvxuhv ri vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq1 Vhoi uhsruwhg gdwd rq uholjlrq lv dydlodeoh iru hdfk fhqvxv |hdu/ exw ghwdlohg fdvwh gdwd lv qrw dydlodeoh iru wkh srvw0lqghshqghqfh shulrg1 Fhqvxv uhsruwv lq wklv shulrg frqwdlq rqo| wkh qxpehu ri vfkhgxohg fdvwhv dqg vfkhgxohg wulehv1 Wkhvh duh jurxsv wkdw kdyh ehhq frqvlghuhg sduwlfxoduo| xqghu sulylohjhg dv d uhvxow ri wkhlu srvlwlrq lq wkh vrfldo klhudufk| dqg kdyh ehqh whg iurp ydulrxv irupv ri d!updwlyh dfwlrq vlqfh lqghshqghqfh1 Gdwd lv dydlodeoh iru 6<: glvwulfwv lq 4<;4 dqg 779 lq 4<<41 Wkh gl huhqw qxpehuv ri glvwulfwv lq gl huhqw |hduv uhvxowv lq sduw iurp wkh fuhdwlrq ri qhz glvwulfwv exw dovr ehfdxvh wkh fhqvxv zdv qrw khog lq fhuwdlq vwdwhv lq fhuwdlq |hduv gxh wr srolwlfdo xquhvw159
hdv| iru sduwlfxodu fdvwhv1 Kh dovr qgv wkdw vrfldo fohydjhv duh khljkwhqhg dv yloodjhv sduwlsdwh lq srolwlfdo dflwlylw|1 Dv wkh hohfwlrq fdpsdljq prxqwv/ shrsoh whqg wr lghqwli| wkhpvhoyhv surjuhvvlyho| zlwk rqh sduw ru dqrwkhu1 Wkh fohdydjhv zlwklq wkh yloodjh frppxqlw| duh pruh vkduso| irfxvvhg/ dqg wkh olqnv ehwzhhq srolwlfdo lqwhuhvw dqg vrfldo vwuxfwxuh duh eurxjkw wr wkh vxuidfh +s1 4:<, 58 Lq Udpsxud lq 4<7;/ lqwhu0fdvwh uhodwlrqv zhuh rq wkh zkroh frrshudwlyh li qrw iulhqgo|111Exw zlwk wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri dgxow iudqfklvh dqg ri wkh hohfwrudo sulqflsoh lqwr sdqfkd|dwv dqg rwkhu orfdo vhoi0jryhuqlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv/ whqvlrqv ehwzhhq wkh fdvwhv lqfuhdvhg vkduso| +Vulqlydv/ s483,1 Dovr vhh Vlqjk +4<<6,1 59 Dvvdp lq 4<;4 dqg Mdppx dqg Ndvkplu lq 4<<41
<
Wkh odvw hqxphudwlrq ri pruh ghwdlohg gdwd rq fdvwh wkdw zh kdyh lv iurp wkh 4<64 fhqvxv/ dqg lw lv d prgl hg yhuvlrq ri wkhvh gdwd wkdw zh frpelqh zlwk fxuuhqw gdwd rq uholjlrqv/ wr frqvwuxfw rxu phdvxuhv ri khwhurjhqhlw|15: Wkh gdwd lv dydlodeoh e| glvwulfwv/ vhsdudwho| iru hdfk ri wkh Eulwlvk Lqgldq surylqfhv dqg sulqfho| vwdwhv1 Zkloh vwdwh erxqgdulhv zhuh uhgudzq diwhu lqghshqghqfh/ glvwulfw erxqgdulhv uhpdlqhg pruh ru ohvv lqwdfw dqg zh fdq wkhuhiruh xvh wklv gdwd wr frqvwuxfw fdvwh vkduhv iru fxuuhqw glvwulfwv1 Iru qhz glvwulfwv fuhdwhg e| vxeglylglqj rog rqhv/ zh zhljkw wkh fdvwh jxuhv iurp wkh ruljlqdo glvwulfw dffruglqj wr wkh duhd ri wkh qhz glvwulfw zklfk zdv wdnhq iurp wkhp1 Wkh qxpehu ri fdvwhv olvwhg lq wkh 4<64 lv yhu| odujh dqg zh uhvwulfw rxuvhoyhv wr Klqgx fdvwhv zklfk irup pruh wkdq 4( ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri hdfk vwdwh ru surylqfh lq 4<641 Sxwwlqj gdwd iru gl huhqw vwdwhv wrjhwkhu/ zh kdyh d wrwdo ri 4;8 fdvwh jurxsv1 Zh pdnh rqh pdmru dgmxvwphqw wr wklv gdwd wr dffrxqw iru wkh lqfuhdvh lq wkh sursruwlrq ri Klqgxv diwhu 4<641 Vrph glvwulfwv kdg vljql fdqw Pxvolp srsxodwlrqv zklfk hpljudwhg wr wkh qhzo| fuhdwhg qdwlrq ri Sdnlvwdq durxqg wkh wlph ri Lqgldq lqghshqghqfh lq 4<7:1 Zh vfdoh xs wkh qxpehuv lq hdfk fdvwh jurxs/ edvhg rq wkh srsxodwlrq vkduh ri klqgxv lq wkh fxuuhqw fhqvxv1 Wklv dvvxphv wkdw zlwklq Klqgxv/ gl huhqw fdvwhv juhz dw vlplodu udwhv ryhu wlph15; Wr phdvxuh ri khwhurjhqhlw|/ zh pdlqo| xvh wkh iudfwlrqdol}dwlrq lqgh{/ k@4
q [
v5 l
+4,
zkhuh vl uhihuv wr wkh srsxodwlrq vkduh ri wkh lwk jurxs1 Zh xvh gdwd iurp d ydulhw| ri rwkhu vrxufhv wr frqwuro iru rwkhu fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri glvwulfwv zklfk d hfw sxeolf jrrg surylvlrq1 Zh frqvwuxfw phdvxuhv ri odqg lqhtxdolw| iurp gdwd rq wkh qxpehu dqg vl}h ri rshudwlrqdo kroglqjv surylghg e| wkh djulfxowxudo fhqvxv ri Lqgld1 Gdwd rq udlqidoo dqg wkh edqn ghsrvlwv shu fdslwd dqg rwkhu frqwuro yduldeohv lv iurp wkh glvwulfw sur ohv sxw wrjhwkhu e| wkh Fhqwuh iru Prqlwrulqj wkh Lqgldq Hfrqrp|1 Wkh hohfwrudo gdwd zh xvh lv iurp wkh hohfwlrq frpplvvlrq dqg lv e| dvvhpeo| frqvwlwxhqflhv1 Wkhuh duh d wrwdo ri derxw 6333 dvvhpeo| frqvwlwxhqflhv lq Lqgld/ dqg wkhuhiruh vhyhudo lq hdfk glvwulfw1 Zh kdyh pdwfkhg wkh erxqgdulhv ri dvvhpeo| frqvwlwxhqflhv wr glvwulfwv lq rughu wr jhqhudwh glvwulfw ohyho hohfwrudo gdwd1 Vwdwh dvvhpeo| hohfwlrqv duh qrw/ lq jhqhudo khog lq fhqvxv |hduv dqg dovr ydu| dfurvv vwdwhv1 Zh xvh wkh 6 hohfwlrq |hduv forvhvw wr rxu fhqvxv |hduv1 Iru prvw vwdwhv/ wkhvh duh 4<:5/ 4<;3 dqg 4<<41 Zh xvh wzr sulqflsdo nlqgv ri hohfwrudo gdwd0 yrwhu wxuqrxwv dqg wkh vkduhv ri wrwdo yrwhv uhfhlyhg e| lqglylgxdo sduwlhv1 Wr rewdlq wxuqrxwv/ zh vxp wkh wrwdo yrwhv dqg holjleoh yrwhuv iru doo wkh frqvwlwxhqflhv ri wkh glvwulfw> iru frqvwuxfwlqj yduldeohv uhodwlqj wr wkh vkduhv ri lqglylgxdo sduwlhv/ zh xvh dyhudjh vkduhv dfurvv wkh frqvwlwxhqflhv ri d glvwulfw1
5: Vrph fdvwh gdwd zdv froohfwhg e| wkh 4<74 fhqvxv exw lw zdv qhyhu wdexodwhg0 d frpelqhg h hfw ri wkh zdu frpelqhg zlwk wkh yrodwloh srolwlfdo vlwxdwlrq lq Lqgld1 5; Zkloh wklv lv fhuwdlqo| qrw wuxh ri xuedq Lqgld/ zh krsh wkdw wklv lv d uhdvrqdeoh dssur{0 lpdwlrq iru uxudo duhdv1 Wkhuh lv yhu| olwwoh hylghqfh rq jurxs zlvh yduldwlrq lq ihuwlolw| dqg pljudwlrq udwhv iru xv wr eh deoh wr gr pxfk hovh1
43
Dv d phdvxuh ri srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq/ zh xvh d idfwlrqdol}dwlrq lqgh{ vlplodu wr wkh khwhurjhqhlw| lqgh{ deryh/ uhsodflqj srsxodwlrq vkduhv ri gl huhqw jurxsv e| wkh vkduh ri wrwdo yrwhv uhfhlyhg e| lqglylgxdo sduwlhv1 Zh dyhudjh dfurvv frqvwlwxhqflhv lq d glvwulfw wr jhw wkh lqgh{ ri srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq iru wkh glvwulfw1 Gdwd rq olwhudf| duh iurp wkh Fhqvxv dqg fulph gdwd duh edvhg rq srolfh uhfrugv sxeolvkhg e| wkh Fhqwudo Fulph Uhfrugv Exuhdx1
615
Hpslulfdo Vwudwhj|
Wkh edvlf furvv vhfwlrqdo uhodwlrqvkls hvwlpdwhg lq wklv sdshu wdnhv wkh irup |lmw @ il +kmw > {mw > %lmw , +5,
zkhuh |lmw lv wkh h{whqw ri surylvlrq ri wkh lwk sxeolf jrrg lq wkh mwk glvwulfw lq fhqvxv |hdu w/ kmw lv d phdvxuh ri khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh glvwulfw/ {mw lv d yhfwru ri rwkhu glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv dqg %lmw lv d glvwulfw dqg jrrg vshfl f vkrfn1 Wkh sureohpv lq lqwhusuhwlqj wkh uhvxowv ri hvwlpdwlqj wklv uhodwlrqvkls frph iurp wkuhh pdlq vrxufhvvxevwlwxwlrq/ uhyhuvh fdxvdwlrq dqg rplwwhg yduldeohv1 Zh glvfxvv wkhp lq rughu1 61514 Vxevwlwxwlrq
Wkh wkhru| lpsolflw lq rxu glvfxvvlrq suhglfwv wkdw pruh khwhurjhqhrxv glvwulfwv zloo kdyh ohvv dffhvv wr wkh sxeolf jrrgv wkdw wkh| zdqw1 Wklv grhv qrw dxwr0 pdwlfdoo| lpso| wkdw wkh| zloo jhw ohvv ri hyhu| sxeolf jrrg1 Lq idfw wkh| pd| eh jlyhq pruh ri vrph sxeolf jrrgv suhflvho| ehfdxvh wkh| kdyh ohvv ri rwkhuv1 Wklv pd| eh/ iru h{dpsoh/ d sduw ri vrph srolwlfdo phfkdqlvp dlphg dw pdn0 lqj vxuh wkdw wkh| gr qrw ehfrph wrr xqkdss|1 Ru lw frxog eh d sduw ri dq dwwhpsw wr ghdo zlwk wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri wkh odfn ri rwkhu sxeolf jrrgv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ d yloodjh wkdw kdv ehhq wudglwlrqdoo| xqghu vxssolhg zlwk hgxfdwlrqdo lqiudvwuxfwxuh pljkw qhhg dqg jhw dq dgxow hgxfdwlrq fhqwhu dkhdg ri d pruh idyruhg glvwulfw1 Lw iroorzv wkdw wkh whvwdeoh suhglfwlrq ri wkh wkhru| rxjkw qrw eh wkdw wkh frh!flhqw rq khwhurjhqhlw| lv qhjdwlyh rq hyhu| sxeolf jrrg1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ lw lv reylrxvo| qrw hdv| wr whvw d k|srwkhvlv wkdw suhglfwv wkdw d vljq zloo eh vrphwlphv srvlwlyh dqg vrphwlphv qhjdwlyh1 Zh wkhuhiruh qhhg vrph zd| ri lghqwli|lqj wkrvh jrrgv zkhuh zh zrxog h{shfw d qhjdwlyh frh!flhqw1 Wkhvh rxjkw wr eh wkh jrrgv wkdw duh prvw ghvludeoh exw/ rqfh djdlq/ zh gr qrw dozd|v kdyh d sulrul lqirupdwlrq rq krz shrsoh udqn wkhvh jrrgv1 Rqh dgplwwhgo| fuxgh zd| wr jhw durxqg wklv sureohp lv wr xvh wkh idfw wkdw zh nqrz wkdw wkh vfkhgxohg wulehv lq Lqgld whqg wr eh wkh vlqjoh zhdnhvw srolwlfdo jurxs ri dq| vl}h dqg wkhuhiruh duh xqolnho| wr kdyh pxfk dffhvv wr wkh prvw ghvludeoh sxeolf jrrgv15< Wklv whoov wr h{shfw wr vhh d qhjdwlyh vljq
5< Wklv rxjkw wr eh wuxh dw ohdvw rqfh zh frqwuro iru wkh vkduh ri fkulvwldqv lq wkh glvwulfw/ vlqfh vfkhgxohg wulehv kdyh d odujh iudfwlrq ri fkulvwldqv dqg wkhuhiruh kdyh dffhv wr wkh nlqgv ri sxeolf jrrgv wkdw fkulvwldq plvvlrqdulhv eulqj zlwk wkhp1
44
rq khwhurjhqhlw| zkhqhyhu wkh frh!flhqw rq wkh srsxodwlrq vkduh ri vfkhgxohg wulehv lv qhjdwlyh exw qrw qhfhvvdulo| rwkhuzlvh1 Ri frxuvh/ zh duh xqolnho| wr qg vxfk dq h{dfw uhodwlrq lq wkh gdwd/ jlyhq wkdw sxeolf jrrgv ydu| dorqj rwkhu glphqvlrqv dv zhoo/ exw lw lv xvhixo wr fkhfn zkhwkhu wkh suhglfwhg sdwwhuq eurdgo| dffrugv zlwk wkh gdwd1 61515 Uhyhuvh Fdxvdwlrq
Uhyhuvh fdxvdwlrq fdq dulvh wkurxjk dw ohdvw wzr gl huhqw urxwhv1 Iluvw/ dv vxj0 jhvwhg deryh/ wkh vxffhvvixo surylvlrq ri d fhuwdlq w|sh ri sxeolf jrrg zloo dwwudfw wkrvh zkr duh khdy| xvhuv ri wkdw sduwlfxodu sxeolf jrrg1 Vhfrqg/ hwkqlf lghq0 wlwlhv duh sduwldoo| iruphg lq wkh surfhvv ri srolwlfdo prelol}dwlrqshrsoh riwhq hpeudfh vshfl f hwkqlf lghqwlwlhv zkhq hwkqlflw| ehfrphv srolwlfdoo| uhohydqw1 Wkhuhiruh d kljkhu ghjuhh ri hwkqlf khwhurjhqhlw| pd| uh hfw pruh srolwlfdo pr0 elol}dwlrq dorqj hwkqlf olqhv/ zklfk/ iru h{dpsoh/ pd| eh d uhvxow ri wkh idfw wkdw wkh duhd odfnv sxeolf jrrgv1 Wkh idfw wkdw rxu phdvxuh ri khwhurjhqhlw| lv edvhg rq gdwd iurp wkh 4<53v pdnhv xv uhodwlyho| ohvv yxoqhudeoh wr wklv sduwlfxodu sureohp1 Prvw ri wkh h{sdqvlrq lq wkh vxsso| ri jrrgv wrrn sodfh diwhu lqghshqghqfh dqg dovr Lqgld xqwlo wkh 4<:3v zdv nqrzq dv d yhu| orz prelolw| hfrqrp| dqg wklv zdv hyhq pruh wuxh lq wkh 4<53v1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh xqolnho| wkdw srsxodwlrq frpsrvlwlrq zdv vxevwdqwldoo| dowhuhg e| wkh suhvhqfh ri sxeolf jrrgv1 Wkhuh zdv dovr yhu| olwwoh srolwlfdo prelol}dwlrq dorqj hwkqlf olqhv lq Lqgld ehiruh wkh 4<63v fdvwh0edvhg pryhphqwv vxfk dv wkh Gudylgldq pryhphqw/ rqo| jdwkhuhg irufh lq wkh 4<63v163 Wkh rqh srvvleoh h{fhswlrq zdv wkh prelol}dwlrq ri Pxvolpv gxulqj wkh Nklodidw pryhphqw/ wkrxjk hyhq wkhuh wkh irfxv zdv rq lq xhqflqj wkh qdwlrqdo +Eulwlvk, jryhuqphqw udwkhu wkdq orfdo jryhuqphqwv1 Krzhyhu lq rughu wr pdnh vxuh wkdw wklv lv qrw d sureohp/ zh fkhfn wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv xvlqj phdvxuhv ri khwhurjhqhlw| zlwklq wkh qrq0pxvolp srsxodwlrq1 61516 Rplwwhg Yduldeohv
Lw lv qrw kdug wr wklqn ri rplwwhg yduldeohv wkdw zloo lq xhqfh wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv dqg duh fruuhodwhg zlwk khwhurjhqhlw|1 Rqh srvvlelolw| lv vlpso| wkdw gl huhqw hwkqlf jurxsv zdqw gl huhqw sxeolf jrrgv +Eudkplqv zdqw hgxfdwlrq/ wudghuv zdqw urdgv hwf1, dqg wkdw wkh khwhurjhqhlw| phdvxuh lv slfnlqj xs fkdqjhv lq wkh vkduh ri wkhvh gl huhqw jurxsv1 Wr fkhfn iru wklv srvvlelolw| zh fruuhodwh rxu phdvxuh ri hwkqlf iudjphqwdwlrq zlwk wkh vkduhv ri vshfl f jurxsv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ lq doo rxu uhjuhvvlrqv zh frqwuro iru wkh vkduh ri doo wkh pdmru hwkqlf jurxsv dqg kdyh wulhg rxw yduldqwv zkhuh zh dovr sxw lq wkh vtxduh ri wkh vkduh ri vrph vshfl f jurxsv1 D pruh sodxvleoh yduldqw ri wklv dujxphqw wdnhv dv lwv suhplvh wkdw shrsoh lq duhdv zklfk duh hwkqlfdoo| glyhuvh whqg wr eh gl huhqw +hyhq diwhu frqwuroolqj iru wkh vkduhv ri hdfk jurxs, dqg wklv gl huhqfh lv uh hfwhg lq wkhlu sduwlfxodu wdvwhv iru sxeolf jrrgv1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ hwkqlfdoo|
63 Wklv lv qrw vxusulvlqj vlqfh wkh grplqdqw irufh lq srolwlfv lq wklv shulrg zdv wkh qdwlrqdolvw pryhphqw dqg hohfwhg orfdo jryhuqphqwv kdg olwwoh ru qr srzhu wloo wkh [[ uhirupv ri 4<681
45
glyhuvh srsxodwlrqv fdq eh gl huhqw iurp pruh krprjhqhrxv srsxodwlrqv hyhq zkhq doo hwkqlf jurxsv kdyh h{dfwo| wkh vdph suhihuhqfhv rq dyhudjh dqg wkhuh lv qr rwkhu edvlv iru hwkqlf frq lfw1 Wkxv dq duhd wkdw lv d fhqwhu ri wudgh zloo whqg wr kdyh d srsxodwlrq zhljkwhg wrzdugv wudghuv iurp hyhu|zkhuh dqg wkhuhiruh khwhurjhqhrxv1 Lw lv dovr olnho| wr kdyh d srsxodwlrq wkdw fduhv uhodwlyho| pruh derxw urdgv dqg rwkhu phdqv ri frppxqlfdwlrq dqg shukdsv ohvv derxw khdowk fhqwhuv dqg zdwhu vxsso|1 Wklv lv dq h{dpsoh ri wdvwh0edvhg vxevwlwxwlrq zklfk lv fohduo| gl huhqw iurp wkh nlqg ri vxevwlwxwlrq wkdw zh glvfxvvhg deryh1 Lw vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh h hfw ri khwhurjhqhlw| pd| ydu| vljql fdqwo| hyhq zlwklq wkh vhw ri ghvludeoh sxeolf jrrgv1 Krzhyhu li wklv lv doo wkdw lv jrlqj rq/ zh zrxog h{shfw d urxjk edodqfh ehwzhhq wkh vhw ri ghvludeoh jrrgv zkhuh khwhurjhqhlw| lv dq dgydqwdjh dqg wkrvh zkhuh lw lv d glvdgydqwdjh1 Dqrwkhu fodvv ri srwhqwldo rplwwhg yduldeohv duh ghwhuplqdqwv ri wkh ryhudoo srolwlfdo forxw ri wkh glvwulfw vxfk dv lwv zhdowk/ hgxfdwlrq dqg xuedql}dwlrq1 Glvwulfwv zklfk vfruh orz rq wklv yduldeoh pd| yhu| zhoo hqg xs zlwk ohvv ri hyhu| ghvludeoh sxeolf jrrg/ lq frqwudvw zlwk wkh suhylrxv fdvh zkhuh glvwulfwv rqo| gl hu lq wkhlu wdvwh iru sxelf jrrgv1 D srvvleoh h{dpsoh ri vxfk dq rplwwhg yduldeoh pd| eh wkh klvwrulfdo sdwwhuqv ri odqgrzqhuvkls zklfk pd| h{sodlq erwk zk| fhuwdlq glvwulfwv duh pruh fdvwh glylghg wkdq rwkhuv +fdvwh/ diwhu doo/ juhz rxw ri glylvlrq ri oderu, dqg dovr zk| wkh| duh srruhu dqg wkhuhiruh ohvv deoh wr jhw sxeolf jrrgv iurp wkh vwdwh1 Wkhuh lv qrwklqj gh qlwlyh wkdw zh fdq gr wr uxoh rxw wklv nlqg ri lghqwl fdwlrq sureohp1 Zh gr krzhyhu frqwuro iru d vwdwh {hg h hfw/ wr ghdo zlwk wkh idfw wkdw gl huhqw vwdwhv kdyh yhu| gl huhqw vfdo uhvrxufhv dqg dovr gl huhqw sdwwhuqv ri hwkqlf glyhuvlw|1 Zh dovr frqwuro iru udlqidoo dqg lqhtxdolw| lq wkh odqg glvwulexwlrq/ zklfk vkrxog slfn xs vrph ri wkh h hfwv ri klvwrulfdo gl huhqfhv lq odqgrzqhuvkls1 Ilqdoo|/ zh hvwlpdwh uhvxowv zlwk dqg zlwkrxw frqwuroolqj iru olwhudf| ohyhov dqg srsxodwlrq ghqvlw| +zh gr lw erwk zd|v ehfdxvh zh duh frqfhuqhg derxw srwhqwldo hqgrjhqhlw| lvxxhv, dqg uhvwulfw wkh dqdo|vlv wr uxudo glvwulfwv wr plqlpl}h wkh h hfwv ri xuedql}dwlrq1 Rxu gdwd dovr doorzv xv d srvvleoh whvw ri wkh cidyruhg glvwulfw* ylhz1 Dv phqwlrqhg deryh/ zh kdyh gdwd rq wkh qxpehu ri uhjlvwhuhg sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv lq wkh glvwulfw1 Vxssrvh wkhuh lv rqh glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlf/ vd| zhdowk ru d wkh ohyho ri hgxfdwlrq lq wkh srsxodwlrq/ wkdw lqfuhdvhv wkh ghpdqg iru erwk sulydwh dqg sxeolfo| surylghg jrrgv1 Wkhq/ xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh vxsso| ri sulydwh jrrgv lv xqd hfwhg e| khwhurjhqhlw|/ zh vkrz ehorz wkdw lw lv srvvleoh wr frqwuro iru xqrevhuyhg wkh glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlf e| lqfoxglqj wkh vxsso| ri wkh sulydwh jrrg dv dq dgglwlrqdo frqwuro1 Lq wkh pruh jhqhudo fdvh zkhuh wkhuh duh vhyhudo gl huhqw xqrevhuyhg fkdudfwhulvwlfv wkdw d hfw sulydwh dqg sxeolf jrrgv gl huhqwldoo|/ wklv frqwuro zloo eh lpshuihfw exw lw vkrxog vwloo plwljdwh wkh eldv1 Wklv sduwlfxodu vwudwhj| uholhv fuxfldoo| rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw khwhurjhqhlw| shu vh grhv qrw d hfw wkh vxsso| ri uhjlvwhuhg sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv1 Wklv vhhpv uhdvrqdeoh vlqfh zh frqwuro iru wkh idfw wkdw gl huhqw jurxsv pd| kdyh gl huhqw suhihuhqfhv1 Zh fdq dovr orrn dw wkh frh!flhqw ri khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh htxdwlrq iru uhjlvwhuhg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv1 Krzhyhu vlqfh zh kdyh lqwurgxfhg wklv yduldeoh lqwr wkh dqdo|vlv suhflvho| ehfdxvh zh ihho wkdw wkh furvv0vhfwlrq 46
uhjuhvvlrqv pd| eh eldvhg/ wklv/ dw ehvw/ surylghv olplwhg frpiruw1 Rqh uhdvrq zk| khwhurjhqhlw| pljkw kdyh dq h hfw rq wkh vxsso| ri sulydwh phglfdo sudfwl0 wlrqhuv lv wkdw khwhurjhqhlw| d hfwv wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf phglfdo lqiudvwuxfwxuh +krvslwdov/ glvshqvdulhv/ khdowk fhqwhuv/ hwf1,1 Ghshqglqj rq krz wkhvh ixqfwlrq/ sulydwh uhjlvwhuhg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv pd| eh hlwkhu frpsohphqwv ru vxevwl0 wxwhv iru wkhvh sxeolf jrrgv1 Lq hlwkhu fdvh wklv zrxog lqgxfh d fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh vxsso| ri sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv dqg khwhurjhqhlw|1 Wr frq0 wuro iru wklv srvvlelolw| zh dovr hvwlpdwh d vshfl fdwlrq zkhuh wkh vxsso| ri wkh ydulrxv sxeolf phglfdo idflolwlhv lv lqfoxghg dv dq dgglwlrqdo frqwuro1 Zh dovr xvh hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph uhgxfhg0irup vshfl fdwlrq wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh h hfw rq wkh srolwlfdo rxwfrphv dqg wkh phdvxuhv ri wkh txdolw| ri olih1 Zkloh d pruh vwuxfwxudo dssurdfk +orrnlqj dw krz wkh h hfw rq srolwlfdo ehkdylru wudqvodwhv lqwr dq h hfw rq wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv/ iru h{dpsoh, kdv wkh srwhqwldo wr eh pruh lqvljkwixo/ wkh lghqwl fdwlrq lvvxhv vhhp odujho| lqwudfwdeoh1
616
Hpslulfdo Vshfl fdwlrq
Rxu yhu| cuhgxfhg irup* prgho vwduwv iurp wkh ohyho ri d yloodjh vlqfh wkh rxwfrph zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq lv wkh vkduh ri yloodjhv zlwk d sduwlfxodu sxeolf jrrg1 Zh dvvxph wkdw hdfk yloodjh kdv d fhuwdlq dprxqw ri srolwlfdo fdslwdo zklfk lw fdq xvh wr od| fodlpv rq ydulrxv sxeolf jrrgv1 Wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri srolwlfdo fdslwdo dvvrfldwhg zlwk yloodjh n lq glvwulfw m lv jlyhq e| Snm = Wkh uxoh iru doorfdwlqj sxeolf jrrgv lv vlpsoh= yloodjh n lq glvwulfw m zloo jhw sxeolf jrrg l li dqg rqo| li Slnm Fl 1 Zh wklqn ri yloodjh ohyho srolwlfdo fdslwdo Slmn @ Slm . lnm > zkhuh Slm lv wkh phdq ohyho ri srolwlfdo fdslwdo lq wkh glvwulfw iru jhwwlqj jrrg l dqg lnm lv d udqgrp yloodjh vshfl f whup zlwk Hn ^ lnm ` @ 3 iru hyhu| +l> m, frpelqdwlrq1 Wkh suredelolw| wkdw yloodjh n zloo kdyh jrrg l fdq wkhuhiruh eh zulwwhq dv Sui lnm Fl Slm j= Zh qrz srvwxodwh wkdw wkh dyhudjh dprxqw ri srolwlfdo fdslwdo lq d glvwulfw lv d ixqfwlrq ri hwkqlf khwhurjhqhlw| +km , dqg rwkhu glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv +{m ,= Vshfl fdoo| ohw Slm @ l km .{m / zlwk wkh suhvxpswlrq wkdw l lv qhjdwlyh1 Qrz wkh suredelolw| wkdw yloodjh n kdv sxeolf jrrg l wdnhv wkh irup Sui lnm Fl l km {m j/
Zh dvvxph wkdw wklv huuru whup iroorzv dq h{wuhph ydoxh glvwulexwlrq dqg/ iru hdfk jrrg vhsdudwho|/ zh hvwlpdwh d orjlw prgho zlwk jurxshg gdwd/ vlqfh zh duh xvlqj glvwulfw ohyho djjuhjdwhv1 Ghqrwlqj wkh sursruwlrq ri yloodjhv zlwk jrrg l e| |lm / dqg wkh qxpehu ri yloodjhv lq glvwulfw m e| qm / wklv lv htxlydohqw wr d olqhdu uhjuhvvlrq ri wkh orj rggv udwlr iru hdfk jrrg/ rq rxu h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv1 Zh wkhuhiruh hvwlpdwh orj+ |l 4 |l , @ l . l km . l {m . %lm +6,
47
vhsdudwho| iru 4<;4 dqg 4<<41 Wklv vshfl fdwlrq uxqv lqwr wkh zhoo0nqrzq sureohp zlwk djjuhjdwlqj orjlw prghov xqohvv zh fdq eh vxuh wkdw doo yloodjhv lq wkh glvwulfw duh lghqwlfdo= Lq rwkhu zrugv/ li yloodjh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ydu| zlwklq d glvwulfw wkhq wkh orjlw prgho dssolhv hlwkhu dw wkh yloodjh ohyho ru dw wkh glvwulfw ohyho exw qrw erwk1 Dq dowhuqdwlyh irupxodwlrq wkdw dyrlgv wkh djjuhjdwlrq lvvxh exw kdv rwkhu reylrxv sureohpv lv wkh olqhdu suredelolw| prgho= |l @ l . l km . l {m . %lm +7,
Ehorz/ zh suhvhqw hvwlpdwhv xvlqj erwk wkh orjlw dqg wkh olqhdu suredelolw| prgho1 Wkh| duh txdolwdwlyho| yhu| vlplodu1
7
714
Uhjuhvvlrq Uhvxowv
Sxeolf Jrrgv
Wdeohv 4D/ 4E dqg 4F suhvhqw rxu edvlf uhvxowv iru 4<;4 dqg 4<<41 Zh uhvwulfw rxuvhoyhv wr wkh 49 odujhvw vwdwhv zklfk frqwdlqhg ryhu <; shu fhqw ri wkh srs0 xodwlrq dw wkh wlph ri wkh 4<<4 fhqvxv164 Wkhvh vwdwhv frqwdlq 655 glvwulfwv lq 4<:4/ 66: lq 4<;4 dqg 6<5 lq 4<<41 Zh ehjlq/ lq froxpqv 4 dqg 5/ zlwk d yhu| sduvlprqlrxv vshfl fdwlrq= Wkh uljkw kdqg vlgh yduldeoh ri lqwhuhvw lv reylrxvo| rxu phdvxuh ri vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq1 Lq dgglwlrq zh lqfoxgh vwdwh gxpplhv wr fdswxuh gl huhqfhv dfurvv vwdwhv lq wkh phdq ohyho ri wkhvh jrrgv wkdw duh qrw revhuydeoh lq rxu gdwd dqg udlqidoo wr sur{| iru djulfxowxudo surgxfwlylw|1 Zh dovr frqwuro wkh srsxodwlrq vkduhv ri eudkplqv/ wkh wkuhh pdmru uholjlrxv jurxsv +pxvolpv/ Fkulvwldqv dqg Vlnkv, dqg vfkhgxohg fdvwhv dqg wulehv1 Zh fohduo| vrph vxssruw iru rxu k|srwkhvlv= Khwhurjhqhlw| lv qhjdwlyh dqg vljql fdqw +dw wkh 43( ohyho, iru 48 rxw ri wkh 66 sxeolf jrrgv lq 4<;4 dqg 45 rxw ri wkh 75 sxeolf jrrgv lq 4<<41 Khwhurjhqhlw| kdv d srvlwlyh dqg vljql fdqw h hfw rq rqo| 5 4<;4 jrrgv dqg : 4<<4 jrrgv1 Zh qh{w uhhvwlpdwh wkh prgho/ lqfoxglqj dv dgglwlrqdo h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv d phdvxuh ri odqg lqhtxdolw| lq wkh glvwulfw/ wkh ohyho ri shu fdslwd edqn ghsrvlwv dqg dyhudjh yloodjh srsxodwlrq1 Wkhvh uhvxowv duh uhsruwhg lq Froxpqv 6 dqg 7 lq wkh vdph wdeoh1 Wkh frh!flhqwv rq iudjphqwdwlrq iurp wkh wzr vshfl fdwlrqv duh txlwh frqvlvwhqw1 Lq wkh 4<;4 vdpsoh zh qg d qhjdwlyh dqg vljql fdqw frh!flhqw iru 49 ri wkh 66 jrrgv/ zkloh lq wkh 4<<4 vdpsoh lw lv iru48 rxw ri wkh 75 jrrgv1 D srvlwlyh dqg vljql fdqw frh!flhqw rffxuv wzlfh lq wkh 4<;4 vdpsoh dqg : wlphv lq wkh 4<<4 vdpsoh Wkh idfw wkdw wkh qhjdwlyh khwhurjhqhlw| h hfw lv ohvv vwurqj lq wkh 4<<4 vdpsoh lv qrw xqh{shfwhg1 Wkh 4<;3v zdv d shulrg lq Lqgld zkhq shrsoh zhuh
64 Wkhuh zhuh d wrwdo ri 58 vwdwhv dw wkh wlph ri wkh 4<<4 fhqxv1 Wkh 49 odujhvw duh/ lq do0 skdehwlfdo rughu/ Dqgkud Sudghvk/ Dvvdp/ Elkdu/ Jxmdudw/ Kdu|dqd/ Klpdfkdo Sudghvk/ Ndu0 qdwdnd/ Nhuhod/ Pdgk|d Sudghvk/ Pdkdudvkwud/ Rulvvd/ Sxqmde/ Udmdvwkdq/ Wdplo Qdgx/ Xw0 wdu Sudghvk dqg Zhvw Ehqjdo1 Zh h{foxgh wkh vpdoo qruwk hdvwhuq erughu vwdwhv ri Duxqdfkdo/ Pdqlsxu/ Phjkdod|d/ Pl}rudp/ Qdjdodqg/ Vlnnlp dqg Wulsxud dqg wkh uhfhqwo| fuhdwhv vwdwh ri Jrd lq wkh Zhvw1
48
ehfrplqj pruh yrfdo lq wkhlu ghpdqg iru sxeolf jrrgv dqg lw vhhpv sodxvl0 eoh wkdw wklv zrxog ohdg wr wkh vxsso| ri sxeolf jrrgv ehfrplqj ohvv xqhtxdo1 Pruhryhu zh vhh wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri d odujh qxpehu ri qhz sxeolf jrrgv lq wklv shulrg/ lqfoxglqj dgxow olwhudf| fhqwhuv/ khdowk fhqwhuv/ WE folqlfv/ fklog zhoiduh fhqwhuv/ qxuvlqj krphv/ pdwhuqlw| krphv/ qdodv hwf1 Rqo| rqh ri wkhvh qhz sxe0 olf jrrgv +pdwhuqlw| krph, vkrzv d vljql fdqwo| qhjdwlyh khwhurjhqhlw| h hfw/ zkloh d qxpehu vkrz d srvlwlyh dqg vljql fdqw h hfw/ zklfk lv shukdsv qrw vxu0 sulvlqj jlyhq wkdw d qxpehu ri wkhvh jrrgv vhhp wr eh lqwhqghg wr frpshqvdwh iru wkh odfn ri rwkhu sxeolf jrrgv +dgxow olwhudf| fhqwhuv iru sulpdu| vfkrrov/ WE folqlfv dqg fklog zhoiduh fhqwhuv iru sulpdu| khdowk fhqwhuv/ qxuvlqj krphv iru krvslwdov/ hwf1,1 Pruh jhqhudoo|/ dv douhdg| glvfxvvhg/ zh fdq wu| wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq wkh jrrgv wkdw hyhu|rqh zdqwv dqg wkh rqhv wkdw duh r huhg dv vxevwlwxwhv xvlqj wkh vljq ri wkh VW h hfw1 Lw lv hdvlo| fkhfnhg wkdw zkhq wkh VW h hfw lv qhjdwlyh/ zklfk kdsshqv 4: wlphv lq erwk wkh 4<;4 vdpsoh dqg wkh 4<<4 vdpsoh/ wkh khwhurjhqhlw| h hfw lv qhjdwlyh/ uhvshfwlyho|/ < wlphv dqg 44 wlphv1 E| frqwudvw zkhq wkh VW h hfw lv srvlwlyh/ zklfk rffxuv rqfh lq wkh 4<;4 vdpsoh dqg 7 wlphv lq wkh 4<<4 vdpsoh/ wkh khwhurjhqhlw| h hfw lv rqo| vljql fdqw lq rqh fdvh +lq 4<<4, dqg wkhq lw lv srvlwlyh1 Wkh idfw wkdw wkh VW h hfw lv v|vwhpdwlfdoo| qhjdwlyh lv dovr lpsruwdqw lq lwvhoi1 Pruhryhu wkh VW h hfw lv riwhq txlwh odujh= Iru h{dpsoh/ iru wxeh0 zhoo2kdqgsxps lq 4<;4 wkh VW frh!flhqw lv 06169/ lpso|lqj wkdw 4 shufhqwdjh srlqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkduh ri VW zloo uhgxfh wkh shufhqwdjh ri yloodjhv wkdw kdyh wklv sduwlfxodu sxeolf jrrg +phdq 49(, e| 3179 shufhqwdjh srlqwv1 Ru iru plggoh vfkrrov lq 4<<4 wkh frh!flhqw lv 031;: lpso|lqj wkdw d 4 shufhqwdjh srlqw lqfuhdvh lq wkh vkduh ri VWv zloo uhgxfh wkh iudfwlrq ri yldoojhv zlwk plg0 goh vfkrrov +phdq 54(, e| 3144 shufhqwdjh srlqwv1 Lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh VWv duh vwloo vxevwdqwldoo| ehklqg lq whupv ri dffhvv wr sxeolf jrrgv1 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ wklv dsshduv qrw wr eh wuxh ri wkh vfkhgxohg fdvwhvwkh h hfw ri pruh vfkhgxohg fdvwhv lq wkh glvwulfw vhhp v wr eh gl huhqw iru gl huhqw jrrgv exw derxw htxdoo| olnho| wr eh srvlwlyh dqg qhjdwlyh1 Wklv lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh lqfuhdvhg srolwlfdo prelol}dwlrq ri vfkhgxohg fdvwhv lq lqghshqghqw Lqgld dqg wkh uhodwlyh srolwlfdo pdujlqdol}dwlrq ri vfkhgxohg wulehv1 Ilqdoo|/ wkh hvwlpdwhg h hfw ri lqhtxdolw| lv ri vrph lqghshqghqw lqwhuhvw1 1 Wkh xqhtxdo dffhvv wr uhvrxufhv lpsolhg e| fdvwh v|vwhp kdv phdqw wkdw gl huhqw fdvwhv h{shulhqfh yhu| gl huhqw ohyho ri pdwhuldo zhoo ehlqj +Ghvksdqgh 5334,1 Lq idfw/ fdvwh edvhg d!updwlyh dfwlrq srolflhv kdyh ehhq lqwurgxfhg wr dgguhvv wkhvh1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh srvvleoh wkdw rxu fdvwh iudjphqwdwlrq phdvxuh lv vlpso| d sur{| iru lqhtxdolw|/ zklfk lv wkh uhohydqw vrfldo glylgh1 Wklv grhv qrw vhhp wr eh wkh fdvh edvhg rq rxu dqdo|vlv ri wkh gdwd1 Wkh lqfoxvlrq ri lqhtxdolw| phdvxuhv vwuhqjwkhqv udwkhu wkdq hurghv wkh h hfwv ri vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq0 fdvwh dqg fodvv kdyh vhsdudwh h hfwv rq froohfwlyh dfwlrq1 Wkh vdpsoh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq rxu phdvxuhv ri lqhtxdolw| dqg vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq lv qr pruh wkdq 15 lq dq| |hdu1 Lw lv dovr zruwk phqwlrqlqj lq uhjdug wr wkh h hfwv ri lqhtxdolw| lv wkdw wkh h hfwv ri lqhtxdolw| duh vhqvlwlyh wr wkh sduwlfxodu phdvxuh ri lqhtxdolw| ehlqj 49
xvhg1 Zkloh gl huhqw phdvxuhv kdyh olwwoh h hfw rq wkh iudjphqwdwlrq frh!flhqw/ wkh| kdyh gl huhqw lqghshqghqw h hfwv rq sxeolf jrrg surylvlrq1 Dv fdq eh vhhq iurp Wdeoh 4/ wkh jlql frh!flhqw lv prvwo| lqvljql fdqw/ exw zkhq vljql fdqw +iru h{dpsoh lq wkh fdvh ri grphvwlf srzhu vxsso| lq 4<;4/ whohskrqh frqqhfwlrqv lq erwk |hduv dqg urdgv/ krvslwdov dqg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv lq 4<<4, lw lv srvlwlyh1 Li lqvwhdg zh xvh phdvxuhv ri lqhtxdolw| wkdw duh pruh vhqvlwlyh wr wkh orzhu wdlo ri wkh lqfrph glvwulexwlrq/ vxfk dv wkh phgldq wr phdq odqg udwlr/ zh qg qhjdwlyh frh!flhqwv1 Wdnhq wrjhwkhu wkhvh uhvxowv vhhp wr vxjjhvw wkdw wkh uhodwlyho| ulfk fdq eh h hfwlyh lq jhwwlqj jrrgv wr wkhlu yloodjhv +hvshfldoo| jrrgv olnh skrqh frqqhfwlrqv/ zklfk duh ghpdqghg glvsursruwlrqdwho| e| wkhp,/ exw dw wkh vdph wlph/ kdylqj odujh qxpehuv ri wkh yhu| srru kxuwv dffhvv wr sxeolf jrrgv1 Wxuqlqj wr wkh frh!flhqwv rq rxu rwkhu h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ glvwulfwv zlwk odujhu yloodjhv kdyh pruh ri doo jrrgv1 Dqg zhdowklhu glvwulfwv +phdvxuhg e| edqn ghsrvlwv shu fdslwd,/ qrw xqh{shfwhgo|/ kdyh pruh ri prvw jrrgv1
715
Urexvwqhvv Fkhfnv
Froxpqv 4 dqg 5 ri Wdeohv 5D dqg 5E uhsruw uhvxowv rq wkh frh!flhqw rq khwhurjhqhlw| zkhq zh hvwlpdwh wkh olqhdu suredelolw| prgho jlyhq e| 7 lqvwhdg ri d orjlw1 Dv lv dssduhqw/ wkh uhvxowv duh txlwh vlplodu1 Wkh h hfw ri rxu phdvxuh ri vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq rq wkh dydlodelolw| ri sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv zdv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 41 1Vlqfh wklv lv d sulydwh jrrg/ zh glg qrw frxqw wkhvh uhvxowv lq wkh deryh glvfxvvlrq1 Dv rqh pljkw h{shfw ri d sulydwh jrrg/ lq doo wkh vshfl fdwlrqv dqg erwk wkh |hduv/ khwhurjhqhlw| kdv qr h hfw rq lwv vxsso| exw wkh iudfwlrq ri VWv kdv d vljql fdqw qhjdwlyh h hfw1 Li zh wdnh dgglwlrqdo vwhs ri dvvxplqj wkdw khwhurjhqhlw| wuxo| kdv qr h hfw rq wkh vxsso| ri uhjlvwhuhg phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv +wklv lv vxssruwhg e| wkh deryh hylghqfh/ exw lv d qrw d qhfhvvdu| frqvhtxhqfh/ vlqfh rxu uhjuhvvlrqv pd| eh el0 dvhg,/ zh fdq xvh wkh lqirupdwlrq rq wkh vxsso| ri sulydwh phglfdo sudfwlwlrqhuv wr slfn xs xqrevhuyhg glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Lq sduwlfxodu vxssrvh wkh wuxh prgho lv orj+ |l 4 |l , @ l . l km . l {m . l ym . %lm = +8,
iru doo sxeolf jrrgv dqg orj+ |us , @ us . us {m . us ym . %usm 4 |us +9,
iru wkh sulydwh jrrg +vlqfh froohfwlyh dfwlrq lv qrw d ghwhuplqdqw ri wkh orfdwlrq ri wkh sulydwh jrrg,165 Khuh m lv dq xqrevhuyhg glvwulfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv zklfk
65 Zkhq vshfli|lqj wkh glvwulfw {hg h hfw lq wklv zd|/ wkh txhvwlrq ri krz wklv lv uhodwhg wr yloodjh {hg h hfwv frphv xs djdlq1 Lq wkh olqhdu prgho/ zh frxog kdyh gl huhqw yloodjh {hg h hfwv dqg wkh glvwulfw h hfw frxog mxvw eh wkh dyhudjh ri wkhvh1 Zlwk wkh orjlw vshfl fdwlrq/ yloodjh {hg h hfwv zrxog kdyh wr eh frqvwudlqhg1
4:
lv srwhqwldoo| fruuhodwhg zlwk km dqg wkhuhiruh d srwhqwldo vrxufh ri eldv1 9 fdq eh uhzulwwhq lq wkh irup m @ 4 |us ^orj+ , us 4 |us us us {m %usm ` +:,
zklfk zkhq vxevwlwxwhg lq 8 jlyhv xv= l |us orj+ ,.+%lm %usm @ us , us 4 |us +;, Hvwlpdwlqj wklv htxdwlrq |lhogv frqvlvwhqw hvwlpdwhv ri l hyhq zkhq km dqg m duh fruuhodwhg1 Krzhyhu wklv phwkrg uholhv rq wkhlu ehlqj d vlqjoh rplwwhg yduldeoh1 Li wkhuh duh pruh wkdq rqh/ wklv surfhgxuh fdq dw ehvw olplw wkh eldv1 Froxpqv 6 dqg 7 ri Wdeohv 5D dqg 5E surylghv hvwlpdwhv ri wkh khwhurjhqhlw| frh!flhqw hvwlpdwhg iurp htxdwlrq ; Wkh vl}h ri wkh h hfwv duh/ lq jhqhudo pxfk odujhu1 Zh kdyh douhdg| vxjjhvwhg wkdw wkh idfw wkdw wkh suhvhqfh ri phglfdo sudfwl0 wlrqhuv pd| eh fruuhodwhg zlwk rwkhu hohphqwv ri wkh khdowk lqiudvwuxfwxuh pljkw lqgxfh d vsxulrxv fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq lw dqg khwhurjhqhlw|1 Wr frqwuro iru wklv srvvlelolw|/ zh dovr uxq wkh deryh uhjuhvvlrq xvlqj wkh vkduh ri yloodjhv zlwk sxe0 olf khdowk fhqwhuv dqg vxe0fhqwhuv dv dgglwlrqdo frqwurov1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq froxpq 6 ri Wdeoh 5/ duh hvvhqwldoo| xqfkdqjhg1 orj+ |l 4 |l , @ +l us @ us ,. l km .+ l us @ us ,{m .
Wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh h hfw
Wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv vxjjhvw h hfwv ri iudjphqwdwlrq wkdw fdq eh txlwh odujh1 Wdeoh 6D dqg 6E olvw wkhvh h hfwv iru doo jrrgv iru zklfk wkh frh!flhqw ri iudjphqwdwlrq zdv vljql fdqw lq hlwkhu 4<;4 ru4<<41 Wkhvh h hfwv kdyh ehhq hydoxdwhg dw wkh vdpsoh phdq iru hdfk sxeolf jrrg1 Lq 4<<4/ d rqh0vwdqgdug gh0 yldwlrq lqfuhdvh lq rxu iudjphqwdwlrq phdvxuh lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk d 4 shufhqwdjh srlqw idoo lq wkh shufhqwdjh ri yloodjhv zlwk krvslwdov/ d 6 shufhqwdjh srlqw idoo lq exv vhuylfhv/ d 7 shufhqwdjh srlqw idoo lq plggoh vfkrrov/ srvw dqg whohjudsk idflolwlhv dqg grphvwlf srzhu/ dqg dq 44 shufhqwdjh srlqw idoo lq wdsshg zdwhu1 Wr sxw wklv lq shuvshfwlyh/ dyhudjlqj ryhu doo glvwulfwv/ rqo| derxw 6 shu fhqw riyloodjhv kdg krvslwdov/ d txduwhu kdg wdsshg zdwhu dqg plggoh vfkrrov/derxw 73 shu fhqw kdg exv vhuylfhv dqg wkuhh0txduwhuv kdg grphvwlf srzhu lq4<<41 Dqrwkhu zd| ri orrnlqj dw wkhvh frh!flhqwv lv wr dvn krz pxfk ri wkh dy0 hudjh gl huhqfhv ehwzhhq vwdwhv lv h{sodlqhg e| khwhurjhqhlw|1 Wr gr wklv/ zh uvw hvwlpdwh rxu orjlw prgho dqg wkhq xvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv dqg wkh revhuyhg ydoxhv ri doo rwkhu h{sodqdwru| yduldeohv/ zh vlpso| uhsodfh wkh ydoxh ri rxu iudjphqwdwlrq yduldeoh e| wkdw ri Sxqmde0wkh vwdwh zlwk wkh orzhvw dyhu0 djh iudjphqwdwlrq +175,1 Zh wkhq orrn dw gl huhqfhv ehwzhhq dfwxdo ydoxhv dqg wkrvh suhglfwhg xvlqj wkh deryh surfhgxuh iru hdfk glvwulfw dqg wkhq frqvwuxfw dyhudjhv iru hdfk vwdwh1 Li doo glvwulfwv lq Lqgld kdg wkh vdph iudjphqwdwlrq 4;
lqgh{ ri 175/ Dqgkud Sudghvk zrxog kdyh d 55 shufhqwdjh srlqw lqfuhdvh lq plggoh vfkrrov/ d 8 shufhqwdjh srlqwv lqfuhdvh lq kljk vfkrrov/ d 319 shufhqwdjh srlqwv lqfuhdvh lq krvslwdov dqg d : shufhqwdjh lqfuhdvh lq exv vhuylfhv1 Wklv zrxog doprvw grxeoh wkh qxpehu ri yloodjhv zlwk plggoh dqg kljk vfkrrov dqg lqfuhdvh wkh qxpehu zlwk krvslwdov e| pruh wkdq d txduwhu1
Wkh h hfw rq srolwlfdo ehkdylru
Gl huhqfhv lq wkh qdwxuh ri srolwlfldqv hohfwhg duh d srvvleoh phfkdqlvp wkurxjk zklfk vrfldo vwuxfwxuh frxog lq xhqfh wkh dydlodelolw| ri sxeolf jrrgv1 Li suhihu0 hqfhv dfurvv jurxsv iru sxeolf jrrgv frqyhujh ru frpsohphqwdu| frqwulexwlrqv ri orfdo h ruw duh hdv| wr holflw/ frppxqlwlhv pd| eh pruh olnho| wr yrwh iru srolwlfldqv dqg sduwlhv wkdw duh prvw deoh wr surylgh wkhvh jrrgv1 Xqfrrshu0 dwlyh uhodwlrqv ehwzhhq jurxsv/ rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ pd| uhvxow lq hdfk jurxs yrwlqj iru fdqglgdwhv zkr wdujhw jryhuqphqw vshqglqj wrzdugv wkhp1 Wkhuh lv hylghqfh/ erwk iru Lqgld dqg rwkhu sduwv ri wkh zruog/ ri srolwlfldqv wudqvihuulqj uhvrxufhv glvsursruwlrqdwho| wrzdugv wkh vrfldo jurxsv wr zklfk wkh| ehorqj166 Lq wklv vhfwlrq zh xvh gdwd iurp vhyhudo vwdwh ohyho hohfwlrqv lq wkh srvw lqgh0 shqghqfh shulrg wr h{dplqh zkhwkhu wkh sdwwhuqv ri srolwlfdo sduwlflsdwlrq ydu| v|vwhpdwlfdoo| zlwk vrfldo frpsrvlwlrq lq d pdqqhu zklfk lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wklv k|srwkhvlv1 Zh irfxv sulpdulo| rq 6 srolwlfdo yduldeohv0 wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frqwhvwdqwv/ wkh vkduh ri yrwhv uhfhlyhg e| wkh zlqqlqj sduw|/ dqg d phdvxuh ri srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq zklfk uh hfwv wkh uhodwlyh vkduh ri yrwhv uhfhlyhg e| frqwhvwlqj sduwlhv1 Rxu phdvxuh ri srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq lv frqvwuxfwhg lq h{dfwo| wkh vdph zd| dv rxu vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq phdvxuh/xvlqj vkduhv ri wrwdo yrwhv e| hdfk sduw| lqvwhdg ri srsxodwlrq vkduhv ri hdfk vrfldo jurxs1 Wkhuh duh ryhu 6333 vwdwh dvvhpeo| frqvwlwxhqflhv lq Lqgld/ lpso|lqj pxowlsoh frqvwlwxhqflhv lq hdfk glvwulfw1 Wkh erxqgdulhv ri dvvhpeo| frqvwlwxhqflhv zhuh gudzq wr pdnh wkh qxpehu ri yrwhuv lq hdfk frqvwlwxhqf| urxjko| htxdo dqg uhvxowlqj lq pruh frqvwlwxhqflhv lq ghqvho| srsxodwhg glvwulfwv1 Wr frqvwuxfw glvwulfw ohyho ydul0 deohv/ zh wdnh dyhudjhv dfurvv wkh glvwulfw*v frqvwlwxhqflhv1 Zh dovr jhqhudwh yrwhu wxuqrxwv iru hdfk glvwulfw +e| vxpplqj yrwhuv dqg holjleoh yrwhuv iru wkh glvwulfw*v frqvwlwxhqflhv,1Zh kdyh qrw kdyh d sulru suhglfwlrq rq krz zh h{shfw wxuqrxwv wr ydu|/ vlqfh wkh| duh olnho| wr ghshqg erwk rq lqglylgxdo surshqvlwlhv wr hqjdjh lq srolwlfdo dfwlylw| dqg rq wkh forvhqhvv ri hohfwrudo frqwhvwv1Vwdwh dvvhpeo| hohfwlrqv duh xvxdoo| khog hyhu| yh |hduv/ wkrxjk qrw dozd|v lq wkh vdph |hdu iru doo vwdwhv1 Wr plqlpl}h wkh lpsdfw ri |hdu vshfl f xqrevhuydeoh idfwruv/ zh frqvwuxfw dqg xvh dyhudjhv ri rxu srolwlfdo yduldeohv iru wkuhh wlph shulrgv0 wkh vhyhqwlhv/ hljkwlhv dqg qlqhwlhv167 1 Wdeoh 7D/ 7E/ 7F dqg 7G suhvhqwv uhvxowv iurp ohdvw vtxduhv uhjuhvvlrqv ri wkhvh srolwlfdo yduldeohv rq vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq dqg rwkhu frqwuro yduldeohv1 Glv0 wulfwv zlwk pruh vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq whqg wr kdyh odujhu qxpehuv ri frqwhvwdqwv
66 Sdqgh 67 4<<7
+, lv wkh odvw hohfwlrq |hdu lq rxw gdwdvhw1
4<
lq wkhlu frqvwlwxhqflhv/ pruh srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq dqg vpdoohu yrwh vkduhv iru wkh zlqqlqj sduw|1 Wklv lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk jurxs edvhg yrwlqj1 Dowkrxjk wkh frh!flhqw rq vrfldo iudjphqwdwlrq lv idluo| frqvlvwhqw lq vljq dfurvv |hduv dqg dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuhv ri srolwlfdo iudjphqwdwlrq/ lw lv qrw dozd|v vwdwlvwlfdoo| vlj0 ql fdqw dw frqyhqwlrqdo ohyhov1 Lw lv wkhuhiruh gl!fxow wr eh frq ghqw wkdw h hfw ri khwhurjhqhlw| rshudwhv hqwluho| wkurxjk lwv h hfw rq srolwlfdo ehkdylru1
Wr Frqfoxgh= Wkh h hfw rq wkh txdolw| ri olih
Lq frqfoxvlrq zh eulh | orrn dw whk h hfw rq vrph phdvxuhv ri txdolw| ri olih1 Wkh deryh uhvxowv zrxog eh xqlqwhuhvwlqj li wkhuh zdv devroxwho| qr sdudooho h hfw rq phdvxuhv ri wkh txdolw| ri olih1 D ghwdlohg lqyhvwljdwlrq ri wkvl txhvwlrq lv d vxemhfw ri dgl huhqw sdshu exw khuh zh eulh | orrn dw wkuhh lqglfdwruv ri wkh txdolw| ri olih= olwhudf| udwhv/ lqidqw pruwdolw| udwhv dqg fulph udwhv1 Lq d olqhdu uhjuhvvlrq ri olwhudf| udwhv lq 4<<4 rq iudjphqwdwlrq dqg doo rxu frqwurov/ wkh frh!flhqw rq iudjphqwdwlrq lv 014; iru pdoh olwhudf|/ 0139 iru ihpdoh olwhudf| dqg 0144 iru wrwdo olwhudf|1 Wkhvh frh flhqw duh uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8D1 Uxqqlqj wkh vdph zlwk lqidqw pruwdolw| udwhv +gh qhg shu wkrxvdqg olyh eluwkv,/ wkh frh!flhqw lv 881 Li zh xvh qxpehuv wkdw glh ehiruh djh 5 dqg 8 lqvwhdg/ wkh vdph slfwxuh hphujhv/ wkh frh!flhqw lv 96 iru xqghu 5 dqg 4551< iru xqghu yh1 Ilqdoo| li kljkhu iudjphqwdwlrq lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk pruh jurxs frq lfw/ zh pljkw dovr h{shfw kljkhu fulph udwhv lq pruh iudjphqwhg glvwulfwv1 Zh hvwlpdwh ohdvw vtxduhv uhjuhvvlrqv/ xvlqj wkh lqflghqfh ri gl huhqw w|shv ri fulph dw wkh glvwulfw ohyho dv rxu ghshqghqw yduldeoh dqg rxu iudjphqwdwlrq phdvxuh/ odqg lqhtxdolw| dqg wkh vkduh ri plqrulw| dqg uholjlrxv jurxsv dv frqwurov1 Iudjphq0 wdwlrq lqfuhdvhv fulph e| doprvw hyhu| phdvxuh1
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Dohvlqd/ Doehuwr/ Uh}d Edtlu dqg Zlooldp Hdvwhuo| +4<<<,= Sxeolf Jrrgv dqg Hwkqlf Glylvlrqv/ Txduwhuo|0Mrxuqdo0ri0Hfrqrplfv> 447+7,/ sdjhv 45760;71 ^5` Edwhv/ Urehuw K1 +4<:6,= Hwkqlflw| lq Frqwhpsrudu| Diulfd/ Prqrjudsk sxeolvkhg e| wkh Surjudp ri Hdvwhuq Diulfdq Vwxglhv/ V|udfxvh Xqlyhuvlw|1 ^6` Ehwhlooh/ Dqguh +4<<9,= Fdvwh/ Fodvv dqg Srzhu= Fkdqjlqj Sdwwhuqv ri Vwudwl fdwlrq lq d Wdqmruh Yloodjh/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Fdoliruqld Suhvv1 ^7` Fkdxgkxu/ Sudplw +4<:<,= Wkh Lqgldq Hfrqrp|= Sryhuw| dqg Ghyhors0 phqw/ Furve| Orfnzrrg Vwdsohv1 ^8` Gdvjxswd/ Sduwkd +4<<6,= Dq Lqtxlu| lqwr Zhoo0Ehlqj dqg Ghvwlwxwlrq/ R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1
53
^9` Gx r/ Hvwkhu +5333,= Vfkrrolqj dqg Oderu Pdunhw Frqvhtxhqfhv ri Vfkrro Frqvwuxfwlrq lq Lqgrqhvld= Hylghqfh iurp dqg xqxvxdo srolf| h{shulphqw/ zrunlqj sdshu/ ghsduwphqw ri hfrqrplfv/ PLW1 ^:` Hdvwhuo|/ Zlooldp dqg Urvv Ohylqh +4<<:,= Diulfd*v Jurzwk Wudjhg|= Srol0 flhv dqg Hwkqlf Glylvlrqv/ Txduwhuo|0Mrxuqdo0ri0Hfrqrplfv> 445+7,/ sdjhv 45360831 ^;` Hsvwhlq/ W1 Vfduohww/ D1S1 Vxu|dqdud|dqd dqg W1 Wklphjrzgd +4<<;,= Ylo0 odjh Yrlfhv= Iruw| \hduv ri Uxudo Wudqvirupdwlrq lq Vrxwk Lqgld/ Vdjh Sxeolfdwlrqv/ Qhz Ghokl1 ^<` Hvwhedq Mrdq dqg Gheudm Ud| +4<<<,= Frq lfw dqg Glvwulexwlrq Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Wkhru|/ ;:/ sdjhv 6:<07481 ^43` Nkzdmd/ Dvlp Lmd} +5333,= Fdq jrrg surmhfwv vxffhhg lq edg frppxql0 wlhvB Froohfwlyh Dfwlrq lq wkh Klpdod|dv/ zrunlqj sdshu/ ghsduwphqw ri hfrqrplfv/ Kduydug Xqlyhuvlw|1 ^44` Sxwqdp/ Urehuw G1 +4<<6,= Pdnlqj ghprfudf| zrun= flylf wudglwlrqv lq prghuq Lwdo|/ Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 ^45` Vkxow}/ W1 Sdxo/ +5334,= Zkdw duh wkh uhwxuqv wr Sryhuw| Uhgxfwlrq= Hydox0 dwlrq ri Surjuhvd lq Ph{lfr/ zrunlqj sdshu/ ghsduwphqw ri hfrqrplfv/ \doh Xqlyhuvlw|1 ^46` Vlqjk/ Y1E1 +4<<6,= Srolwlfdo Iudjphqwdwlrq dqg Hohfwrudo Surfhvv= 4<<4 Hohfwlrq lq Xwwdu Sudghvk/ Dmdqwd1 ^47` Vulqlydv/ P1Q1 +4<<9,= Lqgldq Vrflhw| wkurxjk Shuvrqdo Zulwlqjv/ R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1 ^48` Zlhqhu +4<<3,= Wkh Fklog dqg wkh Vwdwh lq Lqgld/ Sulqfhwrq Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv1
54
Table 0A: Descriptive Statistics 1981 public goods Variable anyed 81 primary 81 middle81 high81 juniorcollege81 anyed primary middle high juniorcoll~e college adltcen anymed phs phc disp hospital mcwcen familyplanningcenter rp smp childhealtwoker anywater well twhp tap tank canal fountain anypower powdomes powagric anypnt post phone anycom bus rail proad
Obs 356 364 364 364 364 356 364 364 364 364 364 364 356 364 364 364 364 364 364 363 363 364 356 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 363 363 356 364 364 356 364 364 364
Mean 0.7515886 0.7367215 0.2128739 0.0986634 0.0101824 0.7515886 0.7367215 0.2128739 0.0986634 0.0101824 0.003971 0.060052 0.2158338 0.0427393 0.0333329 0.0753993 0.0333143 0.0398406 0.037589 0.0496715 0.0038546 0.0588573 0.9983929 0.7271891 0.1622371 0.1407555 0.137608 0.0448081 0.0154434 0.5225077 0.4310468 0.3772099 0.2947599 0.21461 0.0256269 0.3498032 0.3389679 0.0178907 0.3904718
Std. Dev. 0.1943949 0.2016783 0.1958239 0.1539319 0.0174001 0.1943949 0.2016783 0.1958239 0.1539319 0.0174001 0.015165 0.1220689 0.2068861 0.0821089 0.0659108 0.1293525 0.1009632 0.1029996 0.1056108 0.0760214 0.007807 0.1407865 0.0386109 0.3473747 0.2808574 0.1977733 0.1936904 0.1046334 0.0589429 0.3114459 0.3427299 0.3156197 0.2366183 0.1436524 0.0562167 0.2743461 0.2748358 0.0251353 0.2674059
Min 0.1578947 0.0431219 0 0 0 0.1578947 0.0431219 0 0 0 0 0 0.0183099 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8526316 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0036364 0.0036364 0 0.0194805 0 0 0.0072727 0 0 0
Max 1 1 0.9913043 0.9381443 0.1860465 1 1 0.9913043 0.9381443 0.1860465 0.1486486 0.8571429 1 1 0.8571429 0.8243243 1.195876 0.9302326 1.2 0.5416667 0.0933333 0.8326119 1.672269 1.006896 1 0.9988145 0.8571429 0.8180649 0.7294118 1 2.142857 1.545455 1 0.696868 0.6666667 1 1 0.1532033 1
Table 0B: Descriptive Statistics 1981 demographics and crime Variable tpop psc pst lratet phindu pmusli pcris psikh brahman crfrag ginia murder homicide rape kidnap dacoity robbery burglary theft riots breach cheating counterfeit totalcrime
Obs 377 377 377 331 377 377 377 377 366 360 366 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361 361
Mean 1305908 0.1554224 0.154603 0.4051009 0.7854367 0.096586 0.0433705 0.0280643 0.0596299 0.8468777 0.691402 53.34488 7.236842 12.2133 28.58864 35.47507 50.66759 373.295 860.3089 250.8172 41.68975 32.29501 1.790859 2905.355
Std. Dev. 1080912 0.0972026 0.2545304 1.253337 0.2691914 0.1647308 0.1481876 0.1301745 0.0524876 0.1918626 0.1723092 43.89963 12.77003 12.28957 31.32968 55.677 58.71898 313.6551 1061.455 305.7015 40.98646 31.47681 14.10122 2341.407
Min 18825 0 0 0.0192 0.0130157 0.0003551 0 0 0 0.0361392 0.1700063 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 12
Max 1.33E+07 0.5259554 0.9809846 23.01 0.9981605 0.981764 0.9809659 0.9136912 0.3360027 0.998234 0.999446 267 72 131 300 299 358 2750 12114.5 3119 320 269 253 20428
Table 0C: Descriptive Statistics 1991 public goods Variable anyed primary middle high juniorcollege college adltcen anymed phs phc hcen disp hospital nursinghome mcwcen maternityhome childwelfarecenter family planning center tbclinics rp smp childhealthworker anywater well handpump tubewell tap tank canal nala fountain anypower powdomes powagric allpower
Obs 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445
Mean 0.8051185 0.7859392 0.258723 0.1285234 0.019132 0.0050109 0.0917461 0.3828726 0.1014284 0.0519772 0.0126796 0.06252 0.0267503 0.0185166 0.0290678 0.0097498 0.0221298 0.0306263 0.0017809 0.0867914 0.0051578 0.1586911 0.9978223 0.6717745 0.530789 0.2137822 0.2831007 0.1451604 0.0386272 0.0484457 0.022333 0.7574677 0.7105089 0.5118226 0.3211254
Std. Dev. 0.1656742 0.175482 0.1995477 0.1663027 0.0315111 0.0124364 0.1411335 0.2987728 0.1281404 0.0845995 0.0201488 0.0981441 0.0486198 0.0964805 0.0584365 0.0238884 0.043652 0.0688818 0.0077671 0.1151702 0.0163197 0.2667398 0.0061789 0.3345141 0.3875528 0.2884659 0.3015061 0.2135676 0.0828667 0.1206937 0.0759038 0.2623224 0.2799253 0.3691621 0.3107049
Min 0.2284382 0.2132867 0 0 0 0 0 0.0345679 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.9284512 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0654634 0.0436364 0 0
Max 1 1 1 1 0.3529412 0.1411765 0.9146342 1 1 0.7142857 0.1647059 0.6206896 0.4456522 0.7888889 0.5411765 0.2715232 0.4245283 0.4507042 0.1045455 0.72 0.2616279 0.9991357 1.00004 1 1 0.9963099 1 0.9721362 0.8760703 0.8 0.8955512 1 1 1 1
Table 0D: Descriptive Statistics 1991 public goods continued Variable anypnt post tgraph phone anycom bus rail proad
Obs 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445
Mean 0.3212323 0.291538 0.0491346 0.0985402 0.4379819 0.4277001 0.0175978 0.4511706
Std. Dev. 0.2506258 0.2341491 0.1154289 0.1598194 0.2839129 0.284979 0.0236173 0.2724771
Min 0.010274 0.010274 0 0 0.0345238 0 0 0
Max 1 1 0.8571429 1 1 1 0.2 1
Table 0E: Descriptive Statistics 1991 demographics and crime Variable psc pst lratem lratef lratet phindu pmusli pcris psikh brahman crfrag crfragsq ginia murder attemptedmurder homicide rape kidnap womenkidnap otherskidnap dacoity dacoityprep robbery burglary theft riots breach cheating counterfeit othercrime totalcrime
Obs 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 445 437 436 429 429 403 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438
Mean 0.1598418 0.1686104 0.4799459 0.2613191 0.3746591 0.7888431 0.0890628 0.0623255 0.0250096 0.0577394 0.8464384 0.7504326 0.6378725 73.76712 55.78082 9.069635 21.24087 37.14155 27.71918 9.442922 22.80023 2.744292 49.90753 259.6781 607.6792 218.1678 30.06621 43.99315 4.939498 1725.525 3162.326
Std. Dev. 0.094514 0.2651369 0.1246507 0.1531961 0.1343338 0.2524504 0.1251593 0.1879927 0.1250347 0.0517578 0.1845375 0.2266333 0.1264129 66.08625 74.16458 15.79956 19.38434 40.03212 29.57278 21.81433 31.49161 6.966553 58.497 231.0747 691.6693 247.2514 35.82434 59.84864 37.31841 1513.644 2595.046
Min 0 0 0.1558354 0.0333869 0.1042462 0.0122839 0.0003791 4.70E-06 1.02E-06 0 0.026855 0.0007212 0.1276563 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 0 0 0 0 8 22
Max 0.5450974 0.9849431 0.8633283 0.8388228 0.8510541 0.9975895 0.9606515 0.9863827 0.9395128 0.3356538 0.9983052 0.9966133 0.8503081 450.5 692 114.5 135.5 386 183.5 305 339 83.5 441 1780 7117 2303 273 725 766 11701 23125
Table 1A: Education and Health Facilities public good Estimated Coefficients and Standard Errors Basic specification Controlling for average population density and bank deposits per capita (1) (2) (3a) (3b) (3c) (4a) (4b) (4c) fraga 1991 fragb 1981 ST 1981 fragb 1991 fraga 1981 gini 1981 ST 1991 gini 1991 any educational facility -0.62 -0.12 -0.72 0.32 -0.15 (0.59) (0.58) (0.56) (0.32) (0.63) primary schools -0.44 -0.33 -0.53 0.22 -0.05 -0.78 0.39 0.16 (0.60) (0.57) (0.58) (0.32) (0.64) (0.56) (0.34) (0.46) -0.79 ** -0.14 -1.79 ** -0.87 ** 0.13 middle schools -1.43 ** -1.53 ** -1.38 ** (0.47) (0.44) (0.44) (0.27) (0.47) (0.42) (0.25) (0.37) -1.01 ** 0.66 -1.68 ** -0.80 ** 0.39 high schools -2.21 ** -1.56 ** -2.21 ** (0.51) (0.44) (0.48) (0.30) (0.56) (0.42) (0.25) (0.45) 0.78 junior colleges -0.05 -0.48 -0.66 -0.53 * 1.08 -0.93 * -0.79 ** (0.65) (0.52) (0.61) (0.31) (0.72) (0.51) (0.29) (0.43) -0.28 colleges -1.98 * -0.05 -1.56 -0.67 0.07 0.98 -1.22 ** (1.08) (0.94) (0.99) (0.60) (0.94) (0.90) (0.49) (0.65) adult literacy centres -0.99 0.12 -0.26 0.62 1.28 (0.82) (0.94) (0.99) (0.45) (0.77) any medical facility -1.01 * 0.90 -0.84 * -0.61 ** -0.45 0.81 -0.38 -0.05 (0.51) (0.57) (0.49) (0.29) (0.55) (0.53) (0.33) (0.53) -0.91 ** 0.72 0.54 -0.16 -0.25 primary heatlh subcentre -1.67 ** 0.41 -1.75 ** (0.58) (0.64) (0.59) (0.27) (0.54) (0.66) (0.32) (0.55) primary health centre -1.00 ** -0.47 -0.72 -0.33 -0.04 -0.24 -0.35 -0.67 (0.50) (0.44) (0.50) (0.26) (0.47) (0.43) (0.22) (0.37) health centre -1.50 ** -0.79 0.21 0.69 (0.75) (0.73) (0.37) (0.58) -0.58 ** -0.09 -0.83 * -0.51 ** -0.15 dispensary -1.75 ** -1.30 ** -1.61 ** (0.45) (0.49) (0.47) (0.26) (0.52) (0.48) (0.26) (0.47) -0.02 0.86 -2.53 ** -0.24 0.84 hospital -2.72 ** -2.56 ** -2.74 ** (0.58) (0.52) (0.56) (0.34) (0.60) (0.50) (0.30) (0.47) nursing home -1.54 * 0.03 -0.56 -0.15 (0.84) (0.80) (0.51) (0.76) 1.51 ** 0.68 maternity and child welfare centre 0.18 2.03 ** 0.16 -0.08 0.89 2.06 ** (0.65) (0.77) (0.64) (0.33) (0.68) (0.79) (0.51) (0.63) maternity home -2.30 -2.56 * -0.28 6.72 (1.44) (1.37) (0.56) (1.07) -0.07 2.26 child welfare centre 3.11 ** 2.81 ** (0.94) (0.90) (0.49) (0.81) 2.50 family planning centre -0.64 1.60 -0.60 -0.54 * 1.16 1.62 * -0.83 ** (0.77) (1.00) (0.80) (0.30) (0.71) (0.98) (0.34) (0.67) -3.23 tubercolosis clinic -1.91 -1.22 2.34 ** (1.32) (1.43) (0.60) (1.55) -0.25 0.20 subsidized medical practitionner -0.47 2.70 ** -0.80 -0.83 -0.98 2.06 ** (1.11) (0.72) (1.09) (0.54) (0.94) (0.82) (0.52) (0.82) -0.40 -0.87 3.10 ** -0.01 -1.61 child health worker -3.75 ** 2.77 ** -3.61 ** (1.10) (0.94) (1.24) (0.54) (1.06) (0.97) (0.61) (0.87) -0.98 0.28 -0.28 -1.77 ** -0.23 0.20 -2.44 ** 1.99 registered medical practitioners (0.78) (0.89) (0.76) (0.52) (0.87) (0.79) (0.45) (0.67)
** ** ** **
* **
Table 1B: Water, Power and Communication Facilities public good Estimated Coefficients and Standard Errors Basic specification Controlling for average population density and bank deposits per capita (1) (2) (3a) (3b) (3c) (4a) (4b) (4c) fragb 1991 fraga 1981 fraga 1991 fragb 1981 ST 1981 gini 1981 ST 1991 gini 1991 any water -2.39 0.71 -6.52 ** 1.47 5.57 ** -0.17 1.01 1.52 (2.79) (1.52) (2.72) (1.04) (1.72) (1.72) (1.05) (1.25) wells 4.80 ** 2.57 ** 4.72 ** -1.53 ** 3.30 ** 3.10 ** -0.08 0.09 (1.26) (1.25) (1.36) (0.62) (1.31) (1.27) (0.57) (0.96) handpumps 0.55 1.09 0.48 1.22 (1.29) (1.31) (0.52) (0.87) tubewells -0.14 0.71 -2.34 ** -1.60 (0.97) (1.00) (0.51) (0.73) tubewells/handpumps -4.63 ** -2.93 ** -3.36 ** -0.98 (1.24) (1.33) (0.70) (1.25) tapped water -2.63 ** -4.21 ** -2.65 ** -0.63 -0.59 -4.41 ** -1.11 ** 0.20 (0.67) (0.79) (0.71) (0.50) (1.10) (0.85) (0.51) (0.81) tanks -0.56 -0.40 1.13 -0.93 * -2.42 ** 0.64 -0.76 -2.19 (1.34) (1.53) (1.47) (0.53) (0.92) (1.61) (0.54) (0.93) canals -2.10 4.36 ** -2.66 * 0.05 1.58 5.20 ** 0.70 0.18 (1.32) (1.08) (1.38) (0.76) (1.22) (1.13) (0.53) (0.94) fountains -0.94 -3.79 ** 0.87 1.97 * -2.74 -3.44 ** 1.16 -1.57 (2.31) (1.46) (2.11) (1.10) (2.77) (1.42) (1.20) (1.55) any power 1.04 -3.81 ** 0.75 -1.35 ** 1.26 -1.42 * -1.05 ** 0.96 (0.85) (1.48) (0.83) (0.43) (0.85) (0.75) (0.41) (0.55) power for domestic use -0.60 -1.58 ** -1.19 * -1.39 ** 2.05 ** -1.71 ** -0.89 ** 0.73 (0.74) (0.68) (0.72) (0.40) (0.78) (0.69) (0.38) (0.51) power for agricultural use 0.08 0.76 -0.33 -1.46 ** 1.16 0.64 -0.84 * 0.77 (1.12) (1.15) (1.16) (0.49) (0.96) (1.15) (0.50) (0.71) power for all uses 0.16 -0.38 -1.55 ** 1.62 (0.84) (0.86) (0.44) (0.67) any post or telegraph facility -1.29 ** -1.54 ** -0.72 ** 0.30 (0.58) (0.58) (0.34) (0.52) post offices -1.22 -1.28 ** -1.21 ** -0.41 * -0.17 -1.59 ** -0.48 0.30 (0.43) (0.59) (0.42) (0.25) (0.47) (0.60) (0.34) (0.53) telgraph offices -0.84 -1.13 * -1.12 ** 1.36 (0.63) (0.62) (0.34) (0.57) phone connections -0.12 -0.40 -0.14 -1.34 ** 2.49 ** -0.72 -1.67 ** 1.58 (0.86) (0.64) (0.84) (0.46) (0.80) (0.61) (0.31) (0.59) any communication facility -1.07 -0.61 -0.96 * -0.19 -0.61 -0.91 * -0.66 ** 0.33 (0.51) (0.50) (0.50) (0.29) (0.55) (0.51) (0.30) (0.45) bus services -1.08 -0.64 -0.99 * -0.25 -0.56 -0.95 * -0.64 ** 0.36 (0.52) (0.50) (0.51) (0.30) (0.56) (0.51) (0.30) (0.45) rail services -3.48 -0.28 -3.68 ** -1.10 ** 2.30 ** 0.13 -0.89 ** -0.65 (0.73) (0.70) (0.76) (0.49) (0.92) (0.71) (0.35) (0.56) paved roads 1.19 1.32 ** 1.17 ** 0.03 -0.05 0.78 * -0.39 0.81 (0.49) (0.49) (0.46) (0.24) (0.49) (0.47) (0.24) (0.37)
**
**
**
** **
**
Table 2A: Education and Health Facilities public good Estimated Coefficients and Standard Errors Linear Probability Model Controlling for registered medical practitioner fragb 1981 fraga 1991 frag 1991 frag 1981 (1) (2) (3) (4) any educational facility 0.00 -0.03 -0.65 -0.60 (0.10) (0.09) (0.53) (0.56) primary schools 0.03 -0.03 -0.44 -0.78 (0.11) (0.09) (0.55) (0.55) middle schools -0.16 ** -0.27 ** -1.06 ** -1.58 (0.07) (0.08) (0.40) (0.39) high schools -0.15 ** -0.18 ** -2.10 ** -1.66 (0.05) (0.05) (0.46) (0.40) junior colleges -0.01 -0.02 ** -0.71 -0.95 (0.01) (0.01) (0.60) (0.50) colleges -0.01 -0.01 -1.27 0.98 (0.01) (0.01) (0.99) (0.86) adult literacy centres 0.00 -0.02 -0.17 -0.10 (0.06) (0.06) (0.84) (0.99) any medical facility -0.09 -0.40 ** -0.53 0.83 (0.09) (0.17) (0.46) (0.51) primary heatlh subcentre -0.08 ** -0.01 -1.59 ** 0.61 (0.04) (0.06) (0.59) (0.66) primary health centre -0.02 ** -0.02 -0.68 -0.21 (0.01) (0.02) (0.50) (0.42) health centre -0.02 ** -0.88 (0.01) (0.73) dispensary -0.06 -0.05 -1.42 ** -0.88 (0.04) (0.04) (0.46) (0.48) hospital -0.01 -0.07 ** -2.69 ** -2.54 (0.04) (0.02) (0.55) (0.50) nursing home -0.04 ** 0.05 (0.02) (0.80) maternity and child welfare centre 0.06 0.03 0.71 2.34 (0.04) (0.02) (0.59) (0.79) maternity home 0.00 -2.47 (0.01) (1.37) child welfare centre 0.03 2.60 (0.03) (0.91) family planning centre -0.05 ** 0.01 -0.54 1.44 (0.02) (0.02) (0.79) (0.95) tubercolosis clinic 0.00 -1.55 (0.01) (1.32) subsidized medical practitionner 0.00 0.02 -0.34 1.92 (0.00) (0.02) (1.07) (0.77) child health worker -0.12 0.51 ** -3.47 ** 3.04 (0.08) (0.16) (1.27) (0.97)
** ** *
* **
** * **
** **
Table 2B: Water, Power and Communication Facilities public good Estimated Coefficients and Standard Errors Linear Probability Model Controlling for registered medical practitioners fraga 1991 fragb 1981 fraga 1981 frag 1991 (1) (2) (3) (4) any water 0.00 0.01 -4.83 * 0.06 (0.01) (0.01) (2.94) (1.72) wells 0.74 ** 0.77 ** 4.74 ** 2.99 (0.26) (0.26) (1.37) (1.28) handpumps 0.88 ** 1.13 (0.24) (1.31) tubewells 0.07 0.85 (0.09) (0.99) tubewells/handpumps -0.05 -2.87 ** (0.09) (1.34) tapped water -0.32 ** -0.75 ** -2.66 ** -4.42 (0.13) (0.20) (0.71) (0.85) tanks 0.09 0.07 0.76 0.66 (0.07) (0.07) (1.48) (1.60) canals 0.01 0.09 -2.78 ** 5.18 (0.12) (0.11) (1.39) (1.13) fountains -0.06 -0.24 ** 1.32 -3.21 (0.05) (0.07) (2.11) (1.35) any power 0.16 -0.13 1.03 -1.46 (0.12) (0.10) (0.80) (0.73) power for domestic use -0.02 -0.23 ** -0.91 -1.69 (0.14) (0.10) (0.69) (0.67) power for agricultural use 0.33 * 0.36 * 0.05 0.73 (0.17) (0.19) (1.14) (1.14) power for all uses 0.06 0.02 (0.12) (0.84) any post or telegraph facility -0.25 * -1.37 (0.13) (0.56) post offices -0.09 -0.28 ** -1.04 ** -1.41 (0.08) (0.13) (0.40) (0.58) telgraph offices -0.04 -1.02 (0.03) (0.60) phone connections -0.02 0.01 0.27 -0.57 (0.02) (0.07) (0.82) (0.58) any communication facility -0.16 * -0.21 ** -0.69 -0.83 (0.09) (0.09) (0.47) (0.48) bus services -0.09 -0.21 ** -0.74 -0.87 (0.10) (0.09) (0.48) (0.48) rail services 0.01 0.00 -3.32 ** 0.17 (0.02) (0.01) (0.75) (0.70) paved roads 0.18 * 0.13 1.35 ** 0.97 (0.10) (0.10) (0.45) (0.45)
**
**
** ** ** **
** ** *
* *
**
Table 3A: Magnitude of the Effect Variable middle high anymed phs disp hospital childhealthworker anywater well tap canal powdomestic post anycom bus rail proad twhp Mean 0.2128739 0.0986634 0.2158338 0.0427393 0.0753993 0.0333143 0.0588573 0.9983929 0.7271891 0.1407555 0.0448081 0.4310468 0.21461 0.3498032 0.3389679 0.0178907 0.3904718 0.1622371 year 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 1981 coefficient -1.38 -2.21 -0.84 -1.74 -1.61 -2.74 -3.6 -6.5 4.7 -2.65 -2.65 -1.19 -1.2 -0.96 -0.99 -3.68 1.17 -2.92 marginal effects -0.231230872 -0.196532943 -0.142169639 -0.071188015 -0.112239935 -0.088240213 -0.199415226 -0.010429362 0.93241003 -0.320499981 -0.113420886 -0.291842093 -0.202263057 -0.218343284 -0.221827976 -0.064659892 0.278464181 -0.396875372
Table 3B: Magnitude of the Effect Variable middle high juniorcoll~e disp hospital mcwcen maternityhome childwelfarecenter fpc smp childhealtworker well tap fountain anypower powdomes anypnt post tgraph anycom bus proad Mean 0.258723 0.1285234 0.019132 0.06252 0.0267503 0.0290678 0.0097498 0.0221298 0.0306263 0.0051578 0.1586911 0.6717745 0.2831007 0.022333 0.7574677 0.7105089 0.3212323 0.291538 0.0491346 0.4379819 0.4277001 0.4511706 year 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 1991 coefficient -1.79 -1.68 -0.93 -0.84 -2.53 2.06 -2.5 2.8 1.62 2.51 3.1 3.1 -4.4 -3.44 -1.41 -1.71 -1.54 -1.59 -1.12 -0.91 -0.95 0.78 marginal effects -0.343295883 -0.188168628 -0.017452349 -0.04923345 -0.065867845 0.058139098 -0.024136853 0.060592201 0.048095094 0.012879305 0.413875528 0.683529916 -0.893000652 -0.075109776 -0.259031641 -0.351723065 -0.335784849 -0.328404315 -0.052326838 -0.223999917 -0.232534088 0.193140238
Wdeoh 7D= Srolwlfdo Ehkdylru Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh lv Qxpehu ri Frqwhvwlqj Fdqglgdwhv
4<:4 4<;4 4<<4 iudjphqw jlql frh!flhqw vfkhgxohg fdvwhv vfkhgxohg wulehv vwdwh gxpplhv revhuydwlrqv U5 1<8 +18:, 14< +17<, 144 +184, 01;7 +168, |hv 585 183 163 +174, 14< +175, 195 +185, 01<9 +166, |hv 639 198 513 +416:, 169 +4135, 713 +417;, 01:< +197, |hv 5<6 1:6
Wdeoh 7E= Srolwlfdo Ehkdylru Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh lv Srolwlfdo Iudjphqwdwlrq
4<:4 iudjphqw jlql frh!flhqw vfkhgxohg fdvwhv vfkhgxohg wulehv vwdwh gxpplhv revhuydwlrqv U5 13: +138, 0137 +137, 0135 +136, 01368 +135, |hv 585 184 4<;4 143 +137, 013: +137, 138 +138, 0138 +135;, |hv 639 197 4<<4 138 +137, 134 +137, 13; +138, 1334 +1357, |hv 5<6 196
Wdeoh 7F= Srolwlfdo Ehkdylru Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh lv Vkduh ri wkh sduw| zlwk pd{lpxp yrwhv
4<:4 iudjphqw jlql frh!flhqw vfkhgxohg fdvwhv vfkhgxohg wulehv vwdwh gxpplhv revhuydwlrqv U5 0144 +139, 139 +137, 136 +137, 1387 +134<, |hv 585 17; 4<;4 0146 +137, 13< +137, 0138 +138, 13< +136, |hv 638 19< 4<<4 0138 +137, 0136 +137, 0139 +138, 134 +136, |hv 5<6 18<
Wdeoh 7G= Srolwlfdo Ehkdylru= Ghshqghqw Yduldeoh lv Yrwhu Wxuqrxwv
4<:4 iudjphqw jlql frh!flhqw vfkhgxohg fdvwhv vfkhgxohg wulehv vwdwh gxpplhv revhuydwlrqv U5 144 +13<, 13; +138, 138 +139, 0148 +137, |hv 585 198 4<;4 13<: +1386, 134 +138, 137 +13:, 014< +136, |hv 639 1:; 4<<4 139 +137, 138 +137, 0135 +13:, 014; +136, |hv 5<6 1;6
Qrwhv= rwkhu frqwurov lqfoxghg duh wkh vdph dv lq wdeohv 4 dqg 5/ froxpq +e,1 Ydoxhv iru shu fdslwd edqn ghsrvlwv zhuh qrw dydlodeoh iru 4<:4/ dqg 4<;4 ydoxhv zhuh xvhg lqvwhdg1
Table 5A
Effect on literacy in 1991 Estimated Coefficients and Standard Errors frag -0.19 ** (0.06) -0.07 (0.06) -0.12 ** (0.06) ST -0.18 ** (0.04) -0.12 ** (0.04) -0.15 ** (0.03) gini 0.11 ** (0.05) 0.05 (0.05) 0.09 * (0.05)
Male literacy Female literacy Total literacy
Wdeoh 8E= Iudjphqwdwlrq dqg Fulph W|sh ri Fulph
pxughu udsh nlgqds exujoduo| fulphv djdlqvw wkh shuvrq fulphv djdlqvw surshuw|0ylrohqw fulphv djdlqvw surshuw|0qrq ylrohqw phdq U5 phdq revhuydwlrqv 4<;4 :31: +6514, 481< +819, 6913 +4715, 73316 +48<1;, 48;18 +8416, 57: +:715, 45<61< +:<614, 17; 64: 4<<4 8518 +681:, 4916 +:1<, 7619 +5416, ;;17 +43316, 4<;17 +;819, 44419 +7316, 7:517 +7;:, 174 696
You might also like
- Portuguese - A Linguistic Introduction - Milton Mariano Azevedo100% (15)Portuguese - A Linguistic Introduction - Milton Mariano Azevedo356 pages
- ICAS Y7 English E 2008 Questions + Answers100% (4)ICAS Y7 English E 2008 Questions + Answers21 pages
- Véronique Haller-Pozner, Sandy Hook, & The International Gun Control Agenda0% (1)Véronique Haller-Pozner, Sandy Hook, & The International Gun Control Agenda33 pages
- Edqnlqj Shuirupdqfh DQG Vshfxodwlyh DWWDFNV Xqghu DV - Pphwulf LqirupdwlrqNo ratings yetEdqnlqj Shuirupdqfh DQG Vshfxodwlyh DWWDFNV Xqghu DV - Pphwulf Lqirupdwlrq39 pages
- WKH MRLQW HVWLPDWLRQ Ri Whup Vwuxfwxuhv DQG Fuhglw VsuhdgvNo ratings yetWKH MRLQW HVWLPDWLRQ Ri Whup Vwuxfwxuhv DQG Fuhglw Vsuhdgv25 pages
- Montalvo y Reynal-Querol (2003) Why Ethnic Fractionalization Polarization Ethnic Conflict and GrowtNo ratings yetMontalvo y Reynal-Querol (2003) Why Ethnic Fractionalization Polarization Ethnic Conflict and Growt44 pages
- Ilvfdo Srolf - Vxvwdlqdelolw - D Edvlf IudphzrunNo ratings yetIlvfdo Srolf - Vxvwdlqdelolw - D Edvlf Iudphzrun23 pages
- The Contribution of Wavelets To The Analysis of Economic and Financial DataNo ratings yetThe Contribution of Wavelets To The Analysis of Economic and Financial Data14 pages
- Vxemhfwlyh Suredelolwlhv RQ Vxemhfwlyho/ Xqdpeljxrxv Hyhqwv: Oduu - J1 HSVWHLQ MLDQNDQJ) KDQJ Qryhpehu 4 / 4No ratings yetVxemhfwlyh Suredelolwlhv RQ Vxemhfwlyho/ Xqdpeljxrxv Hyhqwv: Oduu - J1 HSVWHLQ MLDQNDQJ) KDQJ Qryhpehu 4 / 450 pages
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper SeriesNo ratings yetMassachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series42 pages
- RQ WKH Glvwulexwlrqdo HHFWV Ri H (FKDQJH Udwh IoxfwxdwlrqvNo ratings yetRQ WKH Glvwulexwlrqdo HHFWV Ri H (FKDQJH Udwh Ioxfwxdwlrqv33 pages
- Multiple Equilibria, History Dependence, and Global Dynamics in Intertemporal Optimization ModelsNo ratings yetMultiple Equilibria, History Dependence, and Global Dynamics in Intertemporal Optimization Models36 pages
- Vroxwlrqv Iru Sureohpv WR Fkdswhu : Pdfur0hfrqrplh LLNo ratings yetVroxwlrqv Iru Sureohpv WR Fkdswhu : Pdfur0hfrqrplh LL5 pages
- Suhglfwlrq Ri Frpsuhvvlrq Vwuhqjwk Ri Xqlgluhfwlrqdo Sro - Phu Pdwul (FRPSRVLWHVNo ratings yetSuhglfwlrq Ri Frpsuhvvlrq Vwuhqjwk Ri Xqlgluhfwlrqdo Sro - Phu Pdwul (FRPSRVLWHV24 pages
- On The Efficiency-Effects of Private (Dis-) Trust in The GovernmentNo ratings yetOn The Efficiency-Effects of Private (Dis-) Trust in The Government31 pages
- Frpsdulqj GHQVLW - Iruhfdvwv Yld ZHLJKWHG Olnholkrrg Udwlr WHVWV DV - PSWRWLF DQG Errwvwuds PHWKRGVNo ratings yetFrpsdulqj GHQVLW - Iruhfdvwv Yld ZHLJKWHG Olnholkrrg Udwlr WHVWV DV - PSWRWLF DQG Errwvwuds PHWKRGV37 pages
- Extracting Information From Options Markets Smiles, State-Price Densities and Risk-AversionNo ratings yetExtracting Information From Options Markets Smiles, State-Price Densities and Risk-Aversion46 pages
- Nature of Markets in The World Wide WebNo ratings yetNature of Markets in The World Wide Web10 pages
- Hqhudo'Ldjqrvwlf7Hvwviru &Urvv6Hfwlrq'Hshqghqfhlq3Dqhov: M. Hashem PesaranNo ratings yetHqhudo'Ldjqrvwlf7Hvwviru &Urvv6Hfwlrq'Hshqghqfhlq3Dqhov: M. Hashem Pesaran41 pages
- Sen's capability approach and the many spaces of human well-beingNo ratings yetSen's capability approach and the many spaces of human well-being42 pages
- Sureohp VHW Iru Fkdswhu 7: Irxqgdwlrqv Ri Prghuq PdfurhfrqrplfvNo ratings yetSureohp VHW Iru Fkdswhu 7: Irxqgdwlrqv Ri Prghuq Pdfurhfrqrplfv7 pages
- D Vlpsoh Dgdswlyh Phdvxuh Ri Fruh LQ DWLRQ: 4 LqwurgxfwlrqNo ratings yetD Vlpsoh Dgdswlyh Phdvxuh Ri Fruh LQ DWLRQ: 4 Lqwurgxfwlrq26 pages
- @H - Ut@ - L? @? - W?It - 4I? - #Iutl?T ? at +I - Hi4I? - @?G Ai W?I?Ui Lu L I@) It LuitNo ratings yet@H - Ut@ - L? @? - W?It - 4I? - #Iutl?T ? at +I - Hi4I? - @?G Ai W?I?Ui Lu L I@) It Luit31 pages
- DVVHW Sulfh Exeeohv DQG Prqhwdu - SrolfNo ratings yetDVVHW Sulfh Exeeohv DQG Prqhwdu - Srolf34 pages
- DQ Dqdo - VLV Iudphzrun Iru Edqn Fdslwdo DoorfdwlrqNo ratings yetDQ Dqdo - VLV Iudphzrun Iru Edqn Fdslwdo Doorfdwlrq21 pages
- Fkdswhu 4 Shuihfw FRPSHWLWLRQ: 414 LqwurgxfwlrqNo ratings yetFkdswhu 4 Shuihfw FRPSHWLWLRQ: 414 Lqwurgxfwlrq60 pages
- Strategic Foundation of General Equlibrium - Douglas Gale (NYU)No ratings yetStrategic Foundation of General Equlibrium - Douglas Gale (NYU)187 pages
- KRXVLQJ Sulfh F - Fohv DQG Suhsd - PHQW Udwhv Ri X1V1 Pruwjdjh SrrovNo ratings yetKRXVLQJ Sulfh F - Fohv DQG Suhsd - PHQW Udwhv Ri X1V1 Pruwjdjh Srrov31 pages
- D Wuldqjxodwlrq Whpsodwh Oleudu - +WWO, Jhqhulf GHVLJQ Ri Wuldqjxodwlrq VriwzduhNo ratings yetD Wuldqjxodwlrq Whpsodwh Oleudu - +WWO, Jhqhulf GHVLJQ Ri Wuldqjxodwlrq Vriwzduh34 pages
- Aüi 6 Ð) Ü - Lu at #Ðtuýt: - W? - HL - Ýu - ÐL?No ratings yetAüi 6 Ð) Ü - Lu at #Ðtuýt: - W? - HL - Ýu - ÐL?11 pages
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper SeriesNo ratings yetMassachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper Series58 pages
- Plasticidad y Grandes Deformaciones en Materiales Compuestos 1 - Formulacion TeoricaNo ratings yetPlasticidad y Grandes Deformaciones en Materiales Compuestos 1 - Formulacion Teorica12 pages
- Sureohp VHW Iru Fkdswhu 49: Irxqgdwlrqv Ri Prghuq PdfurhfrqrplfvNo ratings yetSureohp VHW Iru Fkdswhu 49: Irxqgdwlrqv Ri Prghuq Pdfurhfrqrplfv8 pages
- Tan - A Computational Toolbox For Quantum and Atomic Optics PDFNo ratings yetTan - A Computational Toolbox For Quantum and Atomic Optics PDF20 pages
- The Optimal Design of International Trade Institutions_ Uncertainty and EscapeNo ratings yetThe Optimal Design of International Trade Institutions_ Uncertainty and Escape33 pages
- Dprudglvwdqfld Qxhydvirupdvghylgdhqodhudjoredo: P Duwd Soxp HGNo ratings yetDprudglvwdqfld Qxhydvirupdvghylgdhqodhudjoredo: P Duwd Soxp HG3 pages
- A Performance Comparison of Transfer Pricing and Tidy Cost Allocations in Presence of Product Market Competition An Congestion CostNo ratings yetA Performance Comparison of Transfer Pricing and Tidy Cost Allocations in Presence of Product Market Competition An Congestion Cost30 pages
- Three Brief Proofs of Arrow'S Impossibility Theorem: Cowles Foundation For Research in Economics Yale UniversityNo ratings yetThree Brief Proofs of Arrow'S Impossibility Theorem: Cowles Foundation For Research in Economics Yale University7 pages
- 4 Jurzwk Wkhru - Sureohp VHW 51 Udpvh - prg0 Hov1 Oxfdv Prghov1No ratings yet4 Jurzwk Wkhru - Sureohp VHW 51 Udpvh - prg0 Hov1 Oxfdv Prghov119 pages
- Ai, Giu - Lu Blih?4I? - ? - T4L!?) @4T@) ?TG ? ,? - L) I?Lt V@H - T - U! L4Ti - L? Tthl@UNo ratings yetAi, Giu - Lu Blih?4I? - ? - T4L!?) @4T@) ?TG ? ,? - L) I?Lt V@H - T - U! L4Ti - L? Tthl@U33 pages
- Northern Spotted Owl Population Modeling Using The Leslie Leftovich MatrixNo ratings yetNorthern Spotted Owl Population Modeling Using The Leslie Leftovich Matrix15 pages
- Fundamentals of The Fleming-Mundell Model: Macroeconomic Policy in An Open EconomyNo ratings yetFundamentals of The Fleming-Mundell Model: Macroeconomic Policy in An Open Economy41 pages
- 8.the Dornbusch Sticky - Price Monetarist ModelNo ratings yet8.the Dornbusch Sticky - Price Monetarist Model27 pages
- Micro Consumption Final 2014 2014 11 25 14 35 46No ratings yetMicro Consumption Final 2014 2014 11 25 14 35 46108 pages
- Foreign Exchange Market: Market Where The Various National Currencies Are Sold and Bought (Not A Physical Place)No ratings yetForeign Exchange Market: Market Where The Various National Currencies Are Sold and Bought (Not A Physical Place)40 pages
- 7 Steps To Mitigating Unconscious Bias in Teaching and LearningNo ratings yet7 Steps To Mitigating Unconscious Bias in Teaching and Learning2 pages
- Baum - An Introduction To Modern Econometrics Using Stata100% (1)Baum - An Introduction To Modern Econometrics Using Stata376 pages
- न्याय प्रशासन ऐन, २०७३ (मिति २०७४ साल कार्तिक मसान्तसम्म भएका संशोधन समेत मिलाइएको)No ratings yetन्याय प्रशासन ऐन, २०७३ (मिति २०७४ साल कार्तिक मसान्तसम्म भएका संशोधन समेत मिलाइएको)18 pages
- S.4 History of South Africa Package 241/4: Test 1No ratings yetS.4 History of South Africa Package 241/4: Test 12 pages
- Dar Incident Report CNOOC BUT SSM 21 February 2021No ratings yetDar Incident Report CNOOC BUT SSM 21 February 20212 pages
- ASB C-130 L-382 Military Avionics Upgrade Program Flyer 2014 ANo ratings yetASB C-130 L-382 Military Avionics Upgrade Program Flyer 2014 A2 pages
