Analysis of Cost Estimation
Analysis of Cost Estimation
source
and sink
V, manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
A
x
, non-
manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
W, working capital
investment for
project
Operations for
complete project
Loans
Preferred stock Bonds
Common stock
Other capital input
Stockholders
dividends
Repayment of
borrowed capital
Other
investments
T
o
t
a
l
c
a
p
i
t
a
l
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
(
w
i
t
h
o
u
t
l
a
n
d
)
C
oj
Costs for
operations (not
including
depreciation)
s
j
Total income from
sales $
s
j
-c
oj
Gross profit
(before depreciation
charge)
Total capital
Investment
(without
land),
T=W+A
x
+V
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) Net profit after taxes
d
j
Depreciation charge
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) Gross profit
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
) Income taxes
( is generally 35% of gross profit)
A
j
Net cash flow from
the project including
depreciation charge
A
j
= (s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) + d
j
=(s
j
c
oj
)(1-) + d
j
Capital
source
and sink
V, manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
A
x
, non-
manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
W, working capital
investment for
project
Operations for
complete project
Operations for
complete project
Loans
Preferred stock Bonds
Common stock
Other capital input
Stockholders
dividends
Repayment of
borrowed capital
Other
investments
T
o
t
a
l
c
a
p
i
t
a
l
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
(
w
i
t
h
o
u
t
l
a
n
d
)
C
oj
Costs for
operations (not
including
depreciation)
s
j
Total income from
sales $
s
j
-c
oj
Gross profit
(before depreciation
charge)
Total capital
Investment
(without
land),
T=W+A
x
+V
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) Net profit after taxes
d
j
Depreciation charge
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) Gross profit
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
) Income taxes
( is generally 35% of gross profit)
A
j
Net cash flow from
the project including
depreciation charge
A
j
= (s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) + d
j
=(s
j
c
oj
)(1-) + d
j
Analysis of Cost
Estimation
Net profit = Total income all expenses
direct plant expenses
raw materials, labor, utilities
indirect expenses
administrative salaries, product sales, distribution costs
Capital
source
and sink
Operations for
complete project
Loans
Preferred stock Bonds
Common stock
Other capital input
Stockholders
dividends
Repayment of
borrowed capital
Other
investments
T
o
t
a
l
c
a
p
i
t
a
l
i
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
(
w
i
t
h
o
u
t
l
a
n
d
)
s
j
Total income from
sales $
s
j
-c
oj
Gross profit (before
depreciation charge)
V, manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
A
x
, non-
manufacturing
fixed capital
investment for
project
W, working capital
investment for
project
C
oj
Costs for
operations (not
including
depreciation)
Total capital
Investment
(without
land),
T=W+A
x
+V
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) Net profit after taxes
d
j
Depreciation charge
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
) Gross profit
(s
j
c
oj
d
j
) Income taxes
( is generally 35% of gross profit)
A
j
Net cash flow from
the project including
depreciation charge
A
j
= (s
j
c
oj
d
j
)(1-) + d
j
=(s
j
c
oj
)(1-) + d
j
+ +
|
.
|
\
|
+ + + =
'
new
capital
investment
delivered
purchased-
equipment
cost
delivered-
equipment
labor cost
specific
material
unit cost
specific
material
quantity
specific
material
labor unit
cost per
employee-
hours
labor
employee-
hour for the
specific
material
unit cost for
engineering
Engineering
employee-
hour
unit cost for
drawings or
specifications
number of
drawings or
specifications
Construction /
field expense
factor (>1)
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment
C: Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost
Requires determination of delivered equipment cost
20-30% accuracy
see next table and textbook spreadsheet
|
.
|
\
|
+ + + + + =
|
.
|
\
|
+ + + + + =
n n
f f f f E E f E f E f E f E
n
C ... ...
3 2 1 3 2 1
1
E is the delivered purchased-equipment cost
f
i
are multiplying factors for piping, electrical, indirect costs, etc. (average %
values presented in next table)
Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost (contd)
Check Example
Percentage of Delivered-Equipment Cost (contd)
9. A second evaluation sheet, 'Year-0 $', also is included. It is the same as sheet 'Evaluation', except that all the inflated $
values are converted to constant, year-0 dollars (as discussed in the text). This method is considered to reflect more
realistically the effect of inflation on the profitability measures. The user may change the default inflation rates in order to
study their impacts on profitability.
8. The sheet 'Evaluation' uses values from other sheets to calculate the common profitability measures. The user may
change defaults, or enter desired values into the sheet. In particular, the user may change the default inflation rates in order
to study their effects on profitability. All calculations in 'Evaluation' are made in current (i.e. inflated) dollars. Inflation
adjustments are made from the time of the estimates. To make evaluations for periods of less than 10 years, leave
unneeded columns blank. For periods greater than 10 years, insert columns as needed and copy from an existing year
column into the new columns. Check equations for correct cell references.
7. On the 'Annual TPC' sheet, all values are calculated from information available on other sheets. The user may change
defaults or enter preferred values. The calculated annual TPC is transferred to 'Evaluation'.
6. The 'Depreciation' sheet is used only if the user wishes to change the default (5-year MACRS) depreciation method. To
make a change, copy the appropriate MACRS row to the 'Annual depreciation" row of sheets 'Evaluation' and 'Year-0 $', or,
enter constant annual (straight line) value into depreciation row of those sheets.
5. On the sheet 'Utilities' the quantity of each utility needed annually must be entered in appropriate units. The total annual
utilities cost is transferred to sheet 'Annual TPC'.
4. On the sheet 'Materials & Labor' enter the product prices and flowrates, the raw materials prices and flow rates, and the
labor requirements and current ENR labor index.
3. On the sheet 'Capital Inv.' enter the estimated current total purchased cost of the process equipment. For the proposed
plant type, copy the corresponding "Fraction of calculates and transfers results to appropriate subsequent sheets.
2. Purchased Equipment Costs may be obtained from the file "Equipment Costs, the graphs in the text, or otherwise, and
entered manually into cell H12 on the Capital Inv.' spreadsheet.
1. The sheets are intended for use in the sequence presented. However, any sheet may be by-passed so long as the
information skipped is input manually where needed in subsequent sheets. Default values may be replaced by the user.
The basis for all costs is Jan. 2002.
Cost & Evaluation Workbook accompanying Plant Design and Economics for
Chemical Engineers, 5th edition
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment
D: Lang Factors for Approximation of
Capital Investment
To obtain order-of-magnitude estimates.
Obtained by multiplying the equipment cost by some factor to
approximate the fixed or total capital investment.
D: Lang Factors for Approximation of Capital Investment (contd)
Greater accuracy if a number of factors are used:
(
+ +
|
.
|
\
|
+ + + = A E
m
f
p
f f E f
n
C
i
F
I
1
'
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
' '
'
. . . log . . log
E
f
E
e
E f
v
F
506 0 992 0 001 0 154 0 635 0
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+
|
|
.
|
\
|
=
' '
'
. . . log . . log
E
p
E
e
E f
p
556 0 156 0 001 0 014 0 266 0
The three installation costs defined as follows:
( )
|
|
.
|
\
|
+ + =
'
'
. . log . . log
E
t
E f
m
194 1 001 0 033 0 344 0
E is the purchased equipment on an f.o.b basis, f
I
is the indirect cost factor (1.4), f
F
is the
cost factor for field labor, f
p
the cost factor for piping materials, f
m
the cost factor for
misellaneous items, E
i
the cost of equipment already installed, A the incremental cost of
corrosion-resistant alloy materials, e the total heat exchanger cost, f
v
the total cost of field-
fabricatd vessels, p the total pump plus driver cost and t the total cost of tower shells.
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment
E: Power factor Applied to
Plant/Capacity ratio
To obtain order-of-magnitude estimates.
Obtained by relating the fixed-capital investment of a new process plant
(C
n
) to the fixed-capital investment of similar previously constructed
plants (C) by an exponential power ratio (x):
x
e n
R f C C =
f
e
is the cost index at the time of cost C
n
to that at the time of C.
( ) I DR f C
x
n
+ =
Closer approximation:
f is a lumped cost index factor relative to the original facility cost,
D is the direct cost for previously installed facility
I is the indirect cost for previously installed facility
f is the product of a geographic labor cost index, area labor productivity
index, and a material and equipment cost index:
Check Example (2)
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment
F: Investment cost per unit capacity
Methods for Estimating Capital Investment
G: Turnover ratio
Turnover ratios range from 0.2 to 4 (rule of
thumb for chemical industry: turnover ratio =1)
The reciprocal of this ratio is the so-called
capital ratio or the investment ratio.
investment capital - fixed
sales annual Gross
ratio Turnover =
Instructions for file EQUIPMENT COSTS accompanying Plant Design and Economics for Chemical Engineers, 5th
edition, Peters, Timmerhaus, and West
1. The opening sheet of the file EQUIPMENT COSTS is called CALCULATION PAGE. The column at the left lists equipment
types alphabetically. The names used are the same as those on the cost figures in the text. CLICK a name to SELECT an
EQUIPMENT TYPE. This brings up a panel in the upper right of the screen.
2. The upper right panel shows the text Figure # and title for the source of the cost data plus additional equipment
specifications as needed. CLICK to SELECT the APPROPRIATE LINE. This brings up a panel on the lower right.
3. In the lower right panel input REQUIRED DESIGN PARAMETERS, as requested. An equipment number is requested, and
must be supplied by the user in order for results to be transferred to the EQUIPMENT LIST. CLICK appropriate RADIO
BUTTONS, if shown, to select discreet parameters, such as operating pressure and material of construction. When entries are
complete, CLICK on CALCULATE. All calculated values are purchased costs unless otherwise noted.
4. The lower right panel shows the calculated cost of the item in $. "Add value" TRANSFERS the equipment information to the
EQUIPMENT LIST. "Display Results" shows the EQUIPMENT LIST, and "Clear Results" deletes all EQUIPMENT LIST
entries. The use of the button "Display CSV" is described below.
5. Upon clicking "Display Results," the user will be asked for a date, and then for the value of the Chemical Engineering (CE)
Plant Cost Index. The default values are Jan. 2002 and CE index = 390.4 (the basis for the calculated costs). Any appropriate
date may be entered; the CE index entered should correspond to that date; the index must be extrapolated for dates beyond
the most recently available value. Costs shown on the EQUIPMENT LIST are updated with the index provided. Only one date
and CE index may be used per session (the latest entered is applied to all costs).
6. At the top of the EQUIPMENT LIST, the user may enter project identification information. In the last column on the right of
the EQUIPMENT LIST, the user may insert additional information about the equipment, such as a dimension or design
pressure.
7. Return to the CALCULATION PAGE and continue, by repeating the foregoing steps, adding equipment until project costing
is complete.
8. The EQUIPMENT LIST can be PRINTed. WARNING: EQUIPMENT LIST is not saved when the EQUIPMENT COST file is
closed.
9. The EQUIPMENT LIST can be transferred to a spreadsheet as follows:
a. Open a notepad.
b. Click "Display CSV." Copy the resulting page and paste it in the notepad.
c. Save the notepad file with a '.csv' extension (without quotes) to a convenient location.
d. Open a spreadsheet application. The following instructions are for Excel.
e. Click 'Data' -> 'Get External Data -> 'Import Text File.'
f. Find and select the .csv file saved in step c. Make sure that you see all file types if it doesn't show up.
g. Follow the instructions of the wizard. In step 2, check 'Other' and insert '#' (without quotes) into the box next to Other.
10. To continue with an economic analysis, the total Purchased Equipment Cost may be manually entered into cell H12 on the
"Capital Inv." spreadsheet, or copied from the spreadsheet made in step 9.