5

Daily Market Note

Bloomberg: GNCP <GO>

www.genghis-capital.com

th

12 September 2012

Equities
NSE Maintains Momentum
The NSE 20 Share Index gained 37.38 points to close higher at 3941.10. The NASI was up 0.76% to close at 87.25. The FTSE 15
and 25 also maintained the upward trend gaining 0.86% and 0.85% to close at 115.68 & 118.14 respectively. Local investors
dominated the market accounting for 59.32% of the total turnover while foreign investors remained long on most counters
resulting in a net inflow of Kes.64.7Mn. Equity turnover ascended to Kes.596.97Mn
Market Capitalisation was up to Kes.1.15Tn.
"We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we'll wait, we'll wait indefinitely." - Warren Buffett
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Table 1: NSE Performance

Table 2: NSE Indices

Market Indices Summary

Top Traders
Equity

Volume

Safaricom Ltd

28,035,900

KenGen Co. Ltd

3,941,400

BarclaysBank Ltd

2,973,300

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd

2,425,600

Equity Bank Ltd

1,354,800

Price (KES)

% Change

KenolKobil Ltd

14.30

9.16

Williamson Tea (K) Ltd

211.00

4.46

Equity Bank Ltd

23.75

3.26

Barclays Bank Ltd

14.40

3.23

Sasini Ltd

11.55

3.13

Losing Stocks
Equity

Price (KES)

% Change

Car & General (K) Ltd

22.00

-8.33

National Bank (K) Ltd

17.75

-6.33

CFC Stanbic Bank Ltd

45.75

-4.69

Kenya Re Ins. Ltd

11.30

-4.64

Express Kenya Ltd

3.85

-3.75

Previous
86.59

Today
87.25

% change
0.76%

NSE 20 Share

3903.72

3941.10

0.96%

FTSE NSE 15

114.69

115.68

0.86%

FTSE NSE 25
Source: NSE

117.14

118.14

0.85%

The Advance/Decline ratio at the close of todays trading

session stood at 18/22 with 18 stocks advancing in price and 22
shedding prices.

Foreign investor participation decreased to 40.68% in todays

trading compared to 52.49% at the close of yesterdays session.

Todays session resulted in a net inflow of Kes.64.7Mn

compared to a net inflow of Kes.49.7Mn at the close of the
previous trading session.

The highest foreign investor turnover was recorded on East

African Breweries Ltd (NSE: EABL) Kes.72.3Mn and Safaricom
Ltd (NSE: SCOM) Kes.70.8Mn. The 2 counters accounted for
24.0% and 59.0% of the total NSE and total foreign activity
respectively.

Safaricom Ltd (NSE: SCOM) recorded the highest net inflow of

Kes.48.2Mn.

The highest net outflow was recorded on Scan Group Ltd (NSE:
SCAN) at Kes.16.5Mn.

Gaining Stocks
Equity

Index
NASI

Daily Market Note

Table 3: NSE Summary

11th Sept 2012

12th Sept 2012

% Change

Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)

1142.92

1154.10

0.98%

Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)

381.29

596.97

56.57%

47.51/52.49

59.32/40.68

N/A

19:13

18:22

N/A

6189.30

4499.60

-27.30%

400.00

N/A

8.89%

N/A

Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)

Advance:Decline Ratio
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)

Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O:

750.00
(Mn)
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of
12.12%
Total Bond T/O)
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates

Table 4: Foreign Equity Turnover

Foreign Investor Equity Turnover

11th September 2012

12th September 2012

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

Buys (Kes)

Sales (Kes)

124,903,827.50

150,455,445.00

153,800,302.50

89,069,667.50

Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position

49,676,105.00

64,730,635.00

Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Dealers

The Energy & Petroleum sector closed top shifting 1.27% up buoyed by the performance of KenolKobil
Ltd (NSE: KENO) which gained 9.16% to close at a VWAP Kes.14.30. The total index performance was
down 0.08% on the back of six out of the ten segments posting a decline in performance.

The Automobiles & Accessories sector occupied the bottom spot losing 1.33% dragged down by Car &
General (K) Ltd (NSE: C&G) which shed 8.33% to close at a VWAP of Kes.22.00.

Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis

Sector

Constituents

Price Performance (% Change)

Energy & Petroleum

1.27

Telecommunications & Technology

Agriculture

2
7

Construction & Allied

1.14
0.82
0.08

Banking

10

-0.05

Manufacturing & Allied

-0.25

Commercial & Services

10

-0.26

Investment

-0.87

Insurance

-0.93

Automobiles & Accessories

-1.79

Total Index
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital

60

-0.08

Daily Market Note

Trading Ideas:
The table below shows the performance of selected stocks that Genghis Capital recommended in the year.
Table 6: Equity Picks (Fig in KES)

Price at
Recommendation
14.55

Company
Centum Investments Ltd

19.55

11.90

Upside
Potential
39.13%

Target Price Current Price

Return to
Date
-18.21%

Equity Bank Limited

15.80

19.90

23.75

-19.35%

50.32%

KenolKobil Limited
NIC Bank Limited
EA Cables Ltd
Athi River Mining Ltd
Diamond Trust Bank Ltd
KCB Group Ltd
Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd
Kenya Power & Lighting Co.
Nation Media Group Ltd

9.80
26.50
11.80
156.00
88.50
18.50
7.20
15.85
153.00

16.90
45.50
14.55
198.50
123.40
27.10
17.25
22.00
197.70

14.30
33.50
10.05
214.00
100.00
27.75
17.05
16.70
205.00

15.38%
26.37%
30.93%
-7.81%
18.96%
-2.40%
1.16%
24.09%
-3.69%

45.92%
26.42%
-14.83%
37.18%
12.99%
50.00%
136.81%
5.36%
33.99%

4.00

6.25

6.05

3.20%

51.25%

168.00
11.55
10.05
49.25

201.00
18.50
15.35
59.60

174.00
11.75
11.30
58.00

13.43%
36.49%
26.38%
2.68%

3.57%
1.73%
12.44%
17.77%
28.29%

British American Investments

Bamburi Cement Limited
Cooperative Bank Limited
Kenya Reinsurance Corp.
Scangroup Ltd
Portfolio Return
Source: Genghis Capital Ltd

Recommendation

BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD

Fixed Income:
Yields on the 182-day T-bill fall further

Money Markets: The CBK was active in todays session to mop up Kes.10Bn in excess liquidity
through repurchase agreements and TADs as the interbank rate was stable 6.727%.

Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill was auctioned today with the government receiving a 130%
subscription rate and yields decreasing from 9.351% to 8.993%. The 91-day T-Bill will be auctioned
tomorrow with the regulator seeking to raise Kes.4Bn. The newly issued 15-yr Treasury bond to raise
Kes.15Bn is still on offer until 18th September with the auction being done on 19th September. The
bond has a fixed coupon rate of 11%p.a.

Secondary Markets: In the Fixed Income market, bond activity decreased 27.30% to a turnover of
Kes.4.5Bn. The Infrastructure Bonds accounted for 28% of the activity at Kes.1.2Bn with the
IFB1/2011/12YR bond being the most actively traded.

Table 7: Short -Term Interest Rates, Treasury Notes & CDs

Tenor

Kenya

Uganda

Tanzania

U.S

LIBOR (USD)

91 Day

7.81%

12.94%

13.06%

0.10%

0.41%

182 Day

9.35%

12.43%

13.53%

0.11%

0.70%

1 Year

10.34%

12.01%

13.54%

0.18%

1.03%

2 Year

11.11%

14.84%

13.81%

0.27%

--

5 Year

11.86%

15.39%

14.49%

0.68%

--

10 Year

12.71%

15.28%

14.99%

1.68%

--

Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital

Daily Market Note

Currency:
KES Holds Steady

Performance: The KES strengthened having the largest gains as 1.221% against the ZAR and
0.65% against the TZS. The only two losses recorded were 0.87% in the EUR/KES pair and
o.35% in the GBP/KES pair. Tea export inflows as well as mopping up of excess liquidity by
the regulator have supported the shilling at stable rates.
Table 8: Currency Rate

USD/KES

11th Sept 2012

84.24

12th Sept 2012

84.20

GBP/KES

134.82

135.29

EUR/KES

107.55

108.49

ZAR/KES

10.28

10.15

KES/UGX

29.74

29.88

KES/TZS

18.64

18.76

Currency Pair

INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.

1.52
th

27 Jan 2012

1.52
th

30 Jan 2012

Technical Analysis and Outlook: The chart below shows the Stochastic Oscillator for the
USDKES currency pair over the past few days. This trend has been replicated in the day with
Estimatesthe KES staying below the 85 level threshold.

Daily Market Note

Genghis Index:

Large-Cap Index

Table 9: Genghis Index Performance

The index was up 0.33% as Market Capitalisation

increased to Kes.944Bn.

The best performing counter in this segment was

Equity Bank Ltd (NSE: EQTY) up 3.26%.

Losing by the biggest margin in this segment was CFC

Stanbic Bank Ltd (NSE: CFC) shedding 4.69%.
Mid-Cap Index

The Index lost 0.18% over yesterdays close as Market

Capitalisation was marginally up to Kes.143.9Bn.

This sections best performer was Sasini Ltd (NSE:

SASN) up 3.13%.

Losing by the biggest margin was Kenya Re Insurance

Co. Ltd (NSE: KENRE) down 4.64%.
Small-Cap Index

Source: Genghis Capital

Price performance dropped 0.61% with market

capitalization stable at Kes.13.4Bn.

Gaining by the biggest margin was Williamson Tea (K)

Ltd (NSE: WTK) up 4.46%.

Losing by the biggest margin was Sameer Africa Ltd

(NSE: C&G) shedding 8.33%.

Daily Market Note

GENGHIS LARGE CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Safaricom Ltd Ord 0.05

Total
Shares Outstanding

Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.

Total Shares Traded

Price Change

EPS

DPS

P/E

Dividend
Yield - %

40,000,000,000

170,000,000,000

28,035,900

0.00%

0.32

0.22

13.28

5.18%

790,774,356

180,296,553,168

586,000

-0.44%

13.46

8.75

16.94

3.84%

Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50

3,702,777,020

87,940,954,225

1,354,800

3.26%

2.79

1.00

8.51

4.21%

Barclays Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 0.50

5,431,536,000

78,214,118,400

2,973,300

3.23%

1.49

1.50

9.66

10.42%

Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00

362,959,275

63,154,913,850

0.00%

14.44

10.00

12.05

5.75%

Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

287,077,133

62,295,737,861

53,000

2.36%

19.75

11.00

10.99

5.07%

The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00

3,492,369,900

41,035,346,325

265,500

1.73%

1.53

0.40

7.68

3.40%

Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00

2,950,259,818

81,869,709,950

1,139,200

2.78%

3.72

1.85

7.46

6.67%

KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50

2,198,361,456

18,026,563,939

3,491,400

-1.80%

0.94

0.50

8.72

6.10%

British American Tobacco Kenya Ltd Ord 10.00

100,000,000

41,000,000,000

38,500

-0.97%

30.98

30.50

13.23

7.44%

Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50

157,118,572

32,209,307,260

27,100

0.00%

12.70

8.00

16.14

3.90%

CFC Stanbic of Kenya Holdings Ltd ord.5.00

273,684,211

12,521,052,653

5,900

-4.69%

5.99

0.00

7.64

0.00%

Kenya Airways Ltd Ord 5.00

461,615,483

6,047,162,827

412,800

0.77%

3.58

0.25

3.66

1.91%

1,530,000,000

9,409,500,000

2,425,600

-0.81%

1.32

0.50

4.66

8.13%

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00

163,037,108

16,303,710,800

10,500

-0.99%

13.58

1.70

7.36

1.70%

Kenya Power & Lighting Co Ltd Ord 2.50

633,024,000

10,571,500,800

309,700

0.60%

2.16

0.45

7.73

2.69%

99,055,000

21,197,770,000

121,700

2.39%

11.63

2.00

18.40

0.93%

358,997,784

12,026,425,764

10,000

-1.47%

6.72

0.50

4.99

1.49%

944,120,327,822

41,260,900

0.33%

8.17

4.40

9.95

4.38%

East African Breweries Ltd Ord 2.00

Mumias Sugar Co. Ltd Ord 2.00

Athi River Mining Ord 5.00

NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS MID CAP MARKET SEGMENT

Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50

604,947,068

7,198,870,109

29,200

-2.06%

1.79

0.00

6.65

0.00%

KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05

1,471,761,200

21,046,185,160

291,300

9.16%

2.21

1.00

6.47

6.99%

Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00

284,789,128

16,517,769,424

621,000

0.87%

2.55

0.70

22.75

1.21%

National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

280,000,000

4,970,000,000

1,139,200

-6.33%

3.19

0.40

5.56

2.25%

90,000,000

4,995,000,000

9,400

-1.77%

6.24

0.50

8.89

0.90%

148,210,640

5,891,372,940

2,500

-2.45%

4.51

1.30

8.81

3.27%

54,450,000

8,984,250,000

6,500

0.00%

33.00

4.50

5.00

2.73%

CMC Holdings Ltd Ord 0.50

582,709,440

7,866,577,440

0.00%

-0.31

0.00

-43.55

0.00%

Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50

600,000,000

6,780,000,000

667,100

-4.64%

3.19

0.35

3.54

3.10%

Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

235,750,000

3,300,500,000

385,500

-0.36%

2.70

1.20

5.19

8.57%

Total Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

175,028,706

2,660,436,331

104,200

-2.88%

3.05

0.00

4.98

0.00%

Carbacid Investments Ltd Ord 5.00

33,980,265

4,009,671,270

0.00%

8.89

5.00

13.27

4.24%

Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

96,000,000

3,840,000,000

643,800

-1.23%

2.31

1.00

17.32

2.50%

E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50

253,125,000

2,543,906,250

60,100

0.50%

1.15

1.00

8.74

9.95%

AccessKenya Group Ltd Ord. 1.00

208,084,296

936,379,332

27,600

2.27%

0.53

0.00

8.49

0.00%

74,059,026

1,703,357,598

2,700

2.22%

2.96

0.00

7.77

0.00%

British-American Investments Co (Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10

2,150,000,000

13,007,500,000

84,800

0.83%

-1.09

0.15

-5.55

2.48%

CIC Insurance Group Ltd ord.1.00

2,179,615,440

8,500,500,216

365,800

-1.27%

0.27

0.09

16.67

2.00%

Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00

265,424,636

4,525,490,044

857,000

0.00%

1.47

0.00

11.60

0.00%

Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS

273,950,284

6,300,856,532

5,000

0.00%

1.23

0.25

18.70

1.09%

CFC Insurance Holdings Ltd ord.1.00

515,270,364

3,684,183,103

5,700

0.70%

1.84

0.00

3.89

0.00%

Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00

228,055,500

2,634,041,025

83,400

3.13%

1.72

1.00

6.72

8.66%

19,525,446

1,991,595,492

1,700

0.00%

7.71

6.80

13.23

6.67%

143,888,442,266

5,393,500

-0.18%

3.96

1.10

6.74

2.90%

E.A.Portland Cement Co. Ltd Ord 5.00

TPS Eastern Africa Ltd Ord 1.00
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

Standard Group Ltd Ord 5.00

B.O.C Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

GENGHIS SMALL CAP MARKET SEGMENT

278,342,393

1,015,949,734

258,700

2.82%

0.35

0.20

10.43

5.48%

Williamson Tea Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

Sameer Africa Ltd Ord 5.00

8,756,320

1,847,583,520

800

4.46%

93.74

57.50

2.25

27.25%

Kakuzi Ltd Ord.5.00

19,599,999

1,450,399,926

32,400

0.00%

28.06

3.75

2.64

5.07%

Rea Vipingo Plantations Ltd Ord 5.00

60,000,000

972,000,000

14,600

-1.82%

7.79

1.10

2.08

6.79%

Car & General (K) Ltd Ord 5.00

22,279,616

490,151,552

42,200

-8.33%

7.78

0.55

2.83

2.50%

Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00

75,708,873

1,040,997,004

185,900

0.00%

3.57

0.75

3.85

5.45%

Crown Paints Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00

23,727,000

842,308,500

59,400

-0.70%

5.44

1.25

6.53

3.52%

Eveready East Africa Ltd Ord.1.00

210,000,000

388,500,000

8,100

0.00%

-0.59

-3.14

0.00%

Eaagads Ltd Ord 1.25 AIMS

16,078,500

820,003,500

0.00%

1.36

1.25

37.50

2.45%

City Trust Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

5,728,314

1,976,268,330

29,200

-1.43%

6.12

4.00

56.37

1.16%

Longhorn Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00 AIMS

Kapchorua Tea Co. Ltd Ord Ord 5.00 AIMS

58,500,000
3,912,000

982,800,000
508,560,000

0
0

0.00%
0.00%

2.33
19.93

1.50
7.50

7.21
6.52

8.93%
5.77%

The Limuru Tea Co. Ltd Ord 20.00 AIMS

1,200,000

540,000,000

0.00%

33.70

7.50

13.35

1.67%

Express Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

35,403,790

136,304,592

3,000

-3.75%

-6.47

-0.60

0.00%

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00

40,000,000

146,000,000

6,100

0.00%

0.38

0.10

9.61

2.74%

Marshalls (E.A.) Ltd Ord 5.00

14,393,106

172,717,272

30,900

-1.64%

-11.80

-1.02

0.00%

Kenya Orchards Ltd Ord 5.00 AIMS

12,868,124

38,604,372
13,369,148,302

0
671,300

0.00%
-0.61%

0.04
11.28

5.11

75.00
13.61

0.00%
4.63%

Daily Market Note

Contacts
Report By: Moses Waireri,Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Report By: Evelyne Wanjiku, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Anthony Kimani, Research Analyst | Tel:+254 20 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
Report By: Kelvin Nyabando, Research Analyst | Tel:+25420 2774781 | Email: [email protected]
George Guy,Fixed Income Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774756| Mob: +254 727 142231 | Email: [email protected]
Nyawira Waithaka, Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774777 | Mob: +254 723 693481 | Email: [email protected]
Andrew Maina, Senior Equity Dealer | Tel:+254 20 2774789 | Mob: +254 722 667936 | Email: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis Capital
Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution recommending the
purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in the document are
solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made every effort to provide
accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied warranty of any kind as to
its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any decisions based on the
information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is ultimately your responsibility.

Genghis Capital Ltd, Prudential Assurance Building, Wabera Street, Nairobi.

Tel: +254 20 2774760Fax: +254 20 246334