Russia's Afghanistan Dilemma

Anar SOMUNCUOLU TUSAM, Russian-Ukrainian Studies

The Russian approach toward Turkistan (Central Asia) region is in fact more complicated and multi-dimensional than presented in the popular media. Usually, only competition of powers upon Turkistan is highlighted in this presented panorama and any event is referred through such lens. But, also dynamics inside the region beside external forces have a great effect in the region. This dynamic reckoned inside the region is geared to the potential expansion of radical religious movements into Turkistan. Today, Russia is quiet indisposed the possibility of Afghanistan pass into the hands of the Taliban or the like as well as the US penetration in Turkistan region. In this context, the first perception necessitates cooperation with the U.S. whereas the second does competition. Such contrast among interests showed blatantly itself in the period after 2000s. The US and Russia had actively cooperated in the Afghan operation in the wake of 9/11 attacks to oust the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Russia had provided military and logistic assistance and intelligence support to the North Alliance attack which resulted with the throw of the Taliban forces from Mazar-i Sharif in the north and the capital city of Kabul too in a short time period. However, it was observed that the US and Russia countered in the establishment of a new government in Afghanistan. While Russia supported the North Alliance forces composed of the Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen people, the US insisted on Hamid Karzai of Pashtun origin to take the lead.

While time passed, competition started to overbalance cooperation at the Russian- US relations in the region. Old perception, A gain of ones means an absolute loss for the other has returned back. However the lack of cooperation between the two states prevented finding solution to the threats like cross-border terror in the Turkistan region, drug trafficking and the spread of radical movements. Consequently, the security threat emanated from Afghanistan which seemed to be eliminated with defy of the Taliban government has risen again. The problem, according to Russia, is the US aim which goes beyond fight against terror. The aim is to make Turkistan an area of penetration by the West and undermine Russian and Chinese influences here. Although energy competition and developments in the region continue pursuant to this logic, the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has brought up the Russian-US and RussianNATO cooperation to the agenda.

Bargains before the Summit

Before the NATO Summit held on 2-4 April 2008, Russian officials made a series of statements

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about Afghanistan. The statement which had the most repercussion was made by Russias Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov. The Ambassador criticized the West for that the West could not have established a strong state in Afghanistan. The Ambassador said, Our aim is not to let them go until they have solved all the problems they generated such as international terrorism, and the unheard-of growth in drugs production and built a strong state there and restored the economy.(S.Mamayev, Do i Posle Buharesta, Politieskiy Jurnal, 24 March 2008). Although the US and NATO activities in Afghanistan is strongly criticized at this statement, there is an implicitly expression that NATO existence should continue to solve the problems in Afghanistan. After the Taliban regime gained strength and took the control in 1998 of the city Mazar-i Sharif which is only 56 kilometres to Uzbekistan, the Russian perception of threat from Afghanistan has soared. However, Russia is not ready to play directly the role of the security provider in Afghanistan since Russia withdrew its forces from the country, although it threatened the Taliban regime to carry out preventive air strikes.

Russia preferred to prevent the threat emanated from Afghanistan at the borders of Turkistan republics. To this end, Russia tries to use especially the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The leadership role of Russia in the CSTO, which includes all Turkistan republics except Turkmenistan, raises the US doubt about this structure. Therefore, although Russia offered CSTO-NATO cooperation to suppress threats emanated from Afghanistan towards the Turkistan republics, the US has never kept this offer warm. The US, is even more eager to the establishment of cooperation between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which is another security organization that displays activity in the region and NATO, possibly because Russia does not lead alone in this organization. (N. Bjelakovic, Russian Policies and Views Related to Afghanistan, Centre for Operational Research and Analysis, 2007). The US, which rejects the schema of CSTO-NATO cooperation, prefers to establish bilateral cooperation with countries of the region. In fact the US had individual meetings with Russia and Uzbekistan at the NATO Summit in Bucharest on the issue of overland rail supply to the ISAF troops.

Contacts with Afghanistan

The latest statements made by Russian officials, have given rise to comment that a new approach could be adopted on the Afghanistan issue. Although similar statements have been made since 2005, consequent declarations and meetings between the Afghan government and Russia on military cooperation within the same time period show that Russia could gravitate a more active policy. The Russian criticism is oriented towards that NATO could not have established a strong state which is able to provide its own security itself. The most important point to achieve the named goal is to support the Afghan security forces. On 27 March 2008, the Defence Minister of Afghanistan, Abdul Rahim Wardak, called upon international society to support the Afghan security forces. Have pointed out that the Afghanistan security forces which is comprised of only 80.000 personnel necessitates more arms, Wardak stated that the country

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necessitated assistance for the development of air forces. In fact the Afghan government has communicated with not only the US and NATO but also with Russia on the specified issues. Last year, the visit of the Afghan Defence Minister to Russia came up, but it did not have unstuck. According to the Russian press, these specified issues are again on the agenda. In particular, it is being stated that some contacts have been established between the two countries on the improvement of the Afghan air forces. ( http://www.afghanistan.ru )

Russias positive signals on the issue of strengthening the Afghan army might be a herald of a new approach. The Russian officials have not proposed concrete steps on the remedy of the situation in Afghanistan despite the emphasis on the failure of NATO in the country and the negative attitude on efforts for making some Taliban supporters and leaders on the Afghan governments side. The military assistance of Russia to Afghanistan was limited to the assistance to the North Alliance forces before and after the attack on the Taliban forces. In the period after the attacks it was claimed that Russia preferred to help the Tajik and the Uzbek people even for humanitarian assistance.(Bjelakovic, op.cit).

Such intensive contacts of the Afghan government with Russia and Iran point out the Afghan governments need for cooperation with regional powers. Thus, the Karzai administration, despite its weakness, shows that it is eager to take steps in the vein of a balance policy rather than dependence on the US. Also, Russia tries to maintain its relations with the old allies in the north of Afghanistan on the one hand while promoting cooperation with the Karzai government on the other hand. In this sense the invitation of Karzai to the SCO Summit last year is a noteworthy development. Today it has started to be discussed that Russia could provide direct military assistance to the Pashtun-dominated Afghan government rather than the Tajik, Uzbek and Turkmen people to whom Russia has supported through long time. This step could have a meaning that Russia gravitates to re-establish its influence in Afghanistan against NATO and the US and develop a strategy for the future of Afghanistan.

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