1.4. COUNTING METHODS Example 1.3.5 continued The person now draws two chips.

What is the probability that the defective chip is among them? We need to set up a new sample space containing all possibilities for drawing two chips:

= {{g1 , g2 }, {g1 , g3 }, {g1 , d}, {g2 , g3 }, {g2 , d}, {g3 , d}}

= defective chip is among the two chips drawn = = {{g1 , d}, {g2 , d}, {g3 , d}}. 3 |E| = = 0.5. || 6

Then P (E) =

Finding P (E) involves counting the number of outcomes in E. Counting by hand is sometimes not feasible if is large. Therefore, we need some standard counting methods.

1.4
1.4.1

Counting Methods
Multiplication Principle
Sounds simple, but has enormous impact! Not to be underestimated!

If a complex action can be broken down in a series of k components and these components can be performed in respectively n1 , n2 , . . . , nk ways, then the complex action can be performed in n1 n2 . . . nk dierent ways. Example 1.4.1 Tossing a coin, then tossing a die: results in 2 6 = 12 possible outcomes of the experiment.
die
1 2 3 4 5 6

coin H

1 2 3 4 5 6

1.4.2

Ordered Samples with Replacement

just to make sure we know what we are talking about, here are the denitions that will explain this sections title:

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

Denition 1.4.1 (ordered sample) If r objects are selected from a set of n objects, and if the order of selection is noted, the selected set of r objects is called an ordered sample. Denition 1.4.2 (Sampling w/wo replacement) ?? Sampling with replacement occurs when an object is selected and then replaced before the next object is selected. Sampling without replacement occurs when an object is not replaced after it has been selected. Situation: Imagine a box with n balls in it numbered from 1 to n. We are interested in the number of ways to sequentially select k balls from the box when the same ball can be drawn repeatedly (with replacement). This is our rst application of the multiplication principle: Instead of looking at the complex action, we break it down into the k single draws. For each draw, we have n dierent possibilities to draw a ball. The complex action can therefore be done in n n . . . n = nk dierent ways.
k times

The sample space can be written as: = {(x1 , x2 , . . . , xk )|xi {1, . . . , n}} = {x1 x2 . . . xk |xi {1, . . . , n}}

We already know that || = nk . Example 1.4.2 (a) How many valid ve digit octal numbers (with leading zeros) do exist? In a valid octal number each digit needs to be between 0 and 7. We therefore have 8 choices for each digit, yielding 85 dierent ve digit octal numbers. (b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen ve digit number is a valid octal number? One possible sample space for this experiment would be = {x1 x2 . . . x5 |xi {0, . . . , 9}}, yielding || = 105 . Since all numbers in are equally likely, we can apply Thm 1.3.4 and get for the sought probability: P ( randomly chosen ve digit number is a valid octal number ) = 85 0.328. 105

Example 1.4.3 Pick 3 Pick 3 is a game played daily at the State Lottery. The rules are as follows: Choose three digits between 0 and 9 and order them. To win, the numbers must be drawn in the exact order youve chosen. Clearly, the number of dierent ways to choose numbers in this way is 10 10 10 = 1000. odds (= probability) to win: 1/1000.

1.4. COUNTING METHODS

1.4.3

Ordered Samples without Replacement

Situation:

Again, we break up the complex action into k single draws and apply the multiplication principle: Draw # of Choices total choices: n (n 1) (n 2) . . . (n k + 1) = The fraction
n! (nk)!

1st n

2nd (n 1)

3rd (n 2)

... ...

kth (n k + 1) n! (n k)!

is important enough to get a name of its own:

Denition 1.4.3 (Permutation number) P (n, k) := n!/(n k)! is the number of permutations of n distinct objects taken k at a time. Example 1.4.4 (a) I only remember that a friends (4 digit) telephone number consists of the numbers 3,4, 8 and 9. How many dierent numbers does that describe? Thats the situation, where we take 4 objects out of a set of 4 objects and order them - that is P (4, 4)!. P (4, 4) = 4! 4! 24 = = = 24. (4 4)! 0! 1

(b) In a survey, you are asked to choose from seven items on a pizza your favorite three and rank them. How many dierent results will the survey have at most? - P (7, 3). P (7, 3) = 7! = 7 6 5 = 210. (7 3)!

Variation: How many dierent sets of top 3 items are there? (i.e. now we do not regard the order of the favorite three items.) Think: The value P (7, 3) is the result of a two-step action. First, we choose 3 items out of 7. Secondly, we order them. Therefore (multiplication principle!): P (7, 3)
# of ways to choose 3 from 7 and order them

X
# of ways to choose 3 out of 7 items

P (3, 3)
# of ways to choose 3 out of 3 and order them

So: X=

P (7, 3) 7! 765 = = = 35. P (3, 3) 4!3! 321

This example leads us directly to the next section:

10

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.4.4

Unordered Samples without Replacement

As weve seen in the last example, this can be done in n! P (n, k) = P (k, k) (n k)!k! dierent ways. Again, this number is interesting enough to get a name: Denition 1.4.4 (Binomial Coecient) For two integer numbers n, k with k n the Binomial coecient is dened as n k Read: out of n choose k or k out of n. Example 1.4.5 Powerball (without the Powerball) Pick ve (dierent) numbers out of 49 - the lottery will also draw ve numbers. Youve won, if at least three of the numbers are right. (a) What is the probability to have ve matching numbers? , the sample space, is the set of all possible ve-number-sets: = {{x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 }|xi {1, . . . , 49}} 49 5 49! = 1906884. 5!44! := n! (n k)!k!

|| =

The odds to win a matching ve are 1: 1 906 884 - they are about the same as to die from being struck by lightning. (b) What is the probability to have exactly three matching numbers? Answering this question is a bit tricky. But: since the order of the ve numbers youve chosen doesnt matter, we can assume that we picked the three right numbers at rst and then picked two wrong numbers. Do you see it? Thats again a complex action that we can split up into two simpler actions. We need to gure out rst, how many ways there are to choose 3 numbers out of the right 5 numbers. Obviously, this can be done in 5 = 10 ways. 3 Secondly, the number of ways to choose the remaining 2 numbers out of the wrong 49-5 = 44 numbers is 44 = 231. 2 In total, we have 10 231 = 2310 possible ways to choose three right numbers, which gives a probability of 11/90804 0.0001. Note: the probability to have exactly three right numbers was given as P ( 3 matching numbers ) =
5 3 495 53 49 5

We will come across these probabilities quite a few times from now on.

1.4. COUNTING METHODS (b) What is the probability to win? (i.e to have at least three matching numbers)

11

In order to have a win, we need to have exactly 3, 4 or 5 matching numbers. We already know the probabilities for exactly 3 or 5 matching numbers. What remains, is the probability for exactly 4 matching numbers. If we use the above formula and substitute the 3 by a 4, we get P ( 4 matching numbers ) = In total the probability to win is: P ( win ) = P ( 3 matching numbers ) + P ( 4 matches ) + P ( 5 matches ) = 1 + 5 49 + 231 = = 477 : 1906884 0.00025. 1906884
5 4 495 54 49 5

5 49
49 5

0.000128

Please note: In the previous examples weve used parentheses ( ), see denition , to indicate that the order of the elements inside matters. These constructs are called tuples. If the order of the elements does not matter, we use { } - the usual symbol for sets.