10/15/2009

Bayes Theorem (6.7)

Ill state the theorem right away. Bayes Theorem: Let B1, B2, , Bn be mutually exclusive events (that is, ) which exhaust the sample space, so that

Then, for any event A,

Example (6.7.14): There are two cookie jars on the shelf in the kitchen. The red one has 10 chocolate-chip cookies and 15 gingersnaps. The blue jar has 20 chocolate-chip cookies and 10 gingersnaps. James goes down in the middle of the night and without turning on the light, chooses a jar at random and then chooses a cookie at random. If the cookie is chocolate chip, what is the probability that he got the cookie from the blue jar? Chocolate chip

There are two ways that we can select the chocolate chip cookie. One of them is selecting it from the blue jar.
Chocolate chip

Blue jar Red jar

CC1

Ginger snap Chocolate chip Ginger snap

Blue jar Red jar

Ginger snap Chocolate chip Ginger snap

CC2
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Chocolate chip

CC1

The probability that the cookie came from the blue jar is

Blue jar Red jar

Ginger snap Chocolate chip Ginger snap

CC2
5 6

Its actually probably easier for you not to use the formula directly, but in case you care

Here A is the event of selecting the chocolate chip cookie, B1 is the event of picking the blue jar, and B2 is the event of picking the red jar.

Here A is the event of selecting the chocolate chip cookie, B1 is the event of picking the blue jar, and B2 is the event of picking the red jar.
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Example (6.7.13): Thirteen cards are dealt from a deck of 52 cards. a.) What is the probability that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards? b.) Suppose one of the cards is chosen at random and found not to be the ace of spades. What is the probability that none of the 13 cards is the ace of spades? c.) Suppose the experiment in part (b) is repeated a total of 10 times (replacing the card looked at each time), and the A of spades is never seen. What is the probability that the A of spades actually is one of the 13 cards?

# of 13 card selections containing A of spades # of all possible 13 card selections

a.) Lets just do one part at a time. First, the probability of selecting the A of spades is: # of 13 card selections containing A of spades # of all possible 13 card selections
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Example (6.7.13): Thirteen cards are dealt from a deck of 52 cards. a.) What is the probability that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards? b.) Suppose one of the cards is chosen at random and found not to be the ace of spades. What is the probability that none of the 13 cards is the ace of spades? c.) Suppose the experiment in part (b) is repeated a total of 10 times (replacing the card looked at each time), and the A of spades is never seen. What is the probability that the A of spades actually is one of the 13 cards?

Let E be the event that none of the 13 cards is the A of spades, and let F be the event that one of the 13 cards chosen at random is not the A of spades.

The probability that none of the 13 cards is the A of spades is

b.) Let E be the event that none of the 13 cards is the A of spades, and let F be the event that one of the 13 cards chosen at random is not the A of spades. Then we want to find

Notice that since if none of the cards is the A of spades, then one of the 13 cards chosen at random is not the A of sp.
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Let E be the event that none of the 13 cards is the A of spades, and let F be the event that one of the 13 cards chosen at random is not the A of spades.

The probability that one specific card chosen at random is not the A of spades is

Example (6.7.13): Thirteen cards are dealt from a deck of 52 cards. a.) What is the probability that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards? b.) Suppose one of the cards is chosen at random and found not to be the ace of spades. What is the probability that none of the 13 cards is the ace of spades? c.) Suppose the experiment in part (b) is repeated a total of 10 times (replacing the card looked at each time), and the A of spades is never seen. What is the probability that the A of spades actually is one of the 13 cards?

So, we compute the conditional probability as

For part (c), let F be the event of not seeing the A of spades 10 times in a row, and let E be the event that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards. We will compute

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Let F be the event of not seeing the A of spades 10 times in a row, and let E be the event that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards.

Let F be the event of not seeing the A of spades 10 times in a row, and let E be the event that the A of spades is one of the 13 cards.

First we will find the probability that the event that BOTH E AND F occur. This is the probability that one of the 13 cards is the A of spades AND we dont see that A of spades 10 draws in a row.

Now we compute the probability of F. The probability of not seeing the A of spades ten times in a row depends on whether the A of spades is in the selection of 13 cards.
Probability A of spades is not one of 13 cards

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Probability A of spades is one of 13 cards

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Example (6.7.3): Enrollment in a certain course is 10% first-year students, 30% secondyear students, 40% third-year students, and 20% 4th-year students. Past experience has shown that the likelihood of receiving an A in the course is 0.2 for first-year students, 0.4 for 2nd-year students, 0.3 for 3rd-year students, and 0.1 for 4th-year students. Find the probability that a student who receives an A is in his/her 2nd year.

1st year
0.1 0.3 0.4

0.2

A A A A
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2nd year 3rd year

0.4

0.3

0.2

4th year
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0.1

Example (6.7.10): A specially made pair of dice has only one- and two-spots on the faces. One of the dice has three faces with one-spot and three faces with two-spot. The other die has two faces with one-spot and four faces with a two-spot. One of the dice is selected at random and then rolled six times. If a two-spot shows up only once, what is the probability that it is the die with four two-spots?

1st year
0.1 0.3 0.4

0.2

A A A A
19

? ?

2nd year 3rd year

0.4

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls

0.3

0.2

4th year

0.1

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls

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Lets find the probability that a 2 shows up exactly once in 6 rolls. There are 6 ways this can happen.

Lets find the probability that a 2 shows up exactly once in 6 rolls. There are 6 ways this can happen.

2 on 1st roll 2 on 2nd roll

2 on 1st roll 2 on 2nd roll

2 on 6th roll
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2 on 6th roll
22

Example (6.7.10): A specially made pair of dice has only one- and two-spots on the faces. One of the dice has three faces with one-spot and three faces with two-spot. The other die has two faces with one-spot and four faces with a two-spot. One of the dice is selected at random and then rolled six times. If a two-spot shows up only once, what is the probability that it is the die with four two-spots?

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls

2-spot shows up once in 6 rolls