BpmToolbox 6.0-Forecast Business Planning Model Example (Basic)
BpmToolbox 6.0-Forecast Business Planning Model Example (Basic)
Primary Developer: BPM Cover Notes - This is a simple example of a best practice forecast business planning model. - The purpose of this model is to provide an example of a forecast business planning model developed using bpmToolbox in accordance with the Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling Standards. - To navigate or view the content of this model, click on the 'Go to Table of Contents' hyperlink above. - Subscribe to the Best Practice Modelling Network to be notified of new best practice example models. - For more information see: Model Notes
Table of Contents
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 4
5
6
1.2. Keys
a. Keys - Formats & Styles Key - Sheet Naming Key - Range Naming Key
7
8 -
2. Assumptions
2.1. Time Series Assumptions
a. Time Series Assumptions
11
12
13
14
15 -
Table of Contents
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 20
21
22 -
30
31 32 34 -
37
38
4. Appendices
4.1. Checks
a. Checks - Error Checks - Sensitivity Checks - Alert Checks
39
40
41 -
44
45 48 49 49
Total Pages:
Overview
Section 1.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Section Cover Notes Contains notes explaining the purpose and use of this model and where more help can be obtained. Contains diagrams summarising designated components of the model. Also contains keys explaining the Formats & Styles, Sheet Naming & Range Naming principles used in this model.
Page 4 of 50
Notes
Sub-Section 1.1.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Sub-Section Cover Notes Contains general notes about the purpose and use of this model. Also contains contact details for BPM.
Page 5 of 50
Model Notes
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O Area:
General
Notes
This model has been designed to provide an example of how bpmToolbox 6.0 can be used within Microsoft Excel to efficiently build a basic forecast business planning model in strict accordance with the Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling Standards & Conventions. This model has been developed for those who: - Have purchased bpmToolbox 6.0; - Are currently trialing bpmToolbox; or - Are interested in understanding the benefits of using bpmToolbox.
Intended Audience
Many components of this model have been significantly simplified to prevent confusion. This model has been built in accordance with Version 6.0 of the Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling Standards. For more information on the standards go to www.ssrb.org. This workbook has been built using the bpmToolbox 6.0 default theme - i.e. Styles, Colors, Page Setups, etc. These settings may differ from your personal or corporate theme settings. Brief notes have been included throughout the Section Cover Sheets and Assumption Sheets within this workbook. These notes have been included in accordance with Best Practice and are not designed to provide detailed insight into how this model was developed or how it could be improved or enhanced.
Further Training
BPM specializes in the provision of Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling products and services, including the provision of training and support services. This training and support ranges from our base courses (such as the bpmToolbox Fundamentals course) to courses customized to meet specific client needs. For more information on BPM's training and support services, contact BPM on the details provided below. Address: BPM Level 8, 330 Collins Street Melbourne, Victoria Australia 3000 +613 9244 9800 [email protected] www.bestpracticemodelling.com
Contact BPM
To order the Best Practice Spreadsheet Modelling Standards , go to: Downloads: www.bestpracticemodelling.com/downloads/standards
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Keys
Sub-Section 1.2.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Sub-Section Cover Notes Contains Formats & Styles, Sheet Naming and Range Naming Keys explaining the approaches adopted throughout this model.
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Keys
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Example
Hyperlink Type
Cover Hyperlink Home Hyperlink Custom Hyperlink Sheet Top Hyperlink Sheet Left Hyperlink Sheet Right Hyperlink
Example
Go To Cover Sheet Go To Table of Contents Linked Cell Text
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Keys
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Suffix
Cover Contents SC SSC BA TA
BO TO
Lookup
Contains lookup data for use in forms / controls and in worksheet formulas. Contains model diagrams and flow charts. Contains a chart. Contains formulas that reference worksheet ranges in another workbook. Contains worksheet ranges that are referenced by formulas in another workbook.
LU
MS Cht MI ME
Notes * The names of the Cover and Contents sheets are always "Cover" and "Contents" respectively. ** Model Import and Export Sheet suffixes are used in addition to the other sheet naming suffixes.
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Keys
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Prefix
RA_ CA_ BA_ MAA_ BC_ LU_ HL_ CB_ DD_ LB_ OB_ S_ SB_ No Prefix
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Assumptions
Section 2.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Section Cover Notes Contains base case assumptions used to generate the base case outputs.
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Sub-Section Cover Notes: Contains assumptions used to drive the time series analysis within the model.
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Notes - A Financial Year End assumption of 28th of February is assumed to be a month end financial year end, even in a leap year. - The "Model Denomination" assumption will not necessarily automatically change the denomination of the outputs of this model. - A "Budget Period" refers to either a period in the current financial year or periods containing combined actual and forecast data. - "Data & Projections - Timing Assumptions" are used as the basis for related data and projections time series sheets. - Use the bpmToolbox "Update Time Series Columns" tool to hide inactive data and projections time series periods.
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Forecast Assumptions
Sub-Section 2.2.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Sub-Section Cover Notes: Contains forecast assumptions for all areas within the underlying business.
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Operational - Assumptions
Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Operating Expenditure Capital Expenditure - Assets Capital Expenditure - Intangibles Base Amount 125.0 25.0 40.0 15.0 2.5 Periodic Growth Rate (%) 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Notes 1. Revenue and expense base amount assumptions are specified in $Millions. 2. Revenue and expense assumptions are entered as positive numbers.
Notes 1. Opening balance assumptions are specified in $Millions. 2. Debtors/creditors days assumptions cannot be greater than the number of days in that period.
Assets - Assumptions
Assets Intangible Assets Opening Balance 145.0 11.5 Depreciation/Amortization - % of Capital Expenditure 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 90.0% 25.0% 90.0% 25.0% 90.0% 25.0% 90.0% 25.0%
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Capital - Assumptions
Debt - Assumptions
Funds Drawn ($Millions) Opening Balance Debt Drawdowns Debt Repayments Closing Debt Balance Drawdowns/Repayments % into Period Interest Expense Opening Interest Payable Base Interest Rate (% p.a.) Margin (% p.a.) All-In Interest Rate (% p.a.) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 50.0 50.0 50.0% 50.0 50.0 50.0% 50.0 50.0 50.0% 50.0 50.0 50.0% 50.0 50.0 45.0 55.0 50.0% 55.0 55.0 50.0% 55.0 55.0 50.0% 55.0 55.0 50.0%
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
### Limit dividends to prevent negative Cash at Bank? Notes 1. Dividends cannot be negative. 2. Dividends cannot exceed accumulated Retained Profits (Opening Retained Profits + Net Profit After Tax) in any period.
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Taxation - Assumptions
Tax Payable ($Millions)
Opening Tax Payable 3.5
Taxation Rate
Corporate Taxation Rate 30.0%
Notes 1. Tax is assumed to be paid in the period after tax expense is incurred. 2. The Corporate Taxation Rate is limited to a minimum of 0% and a maximum of 100%. 3. Tax calculations do not allow for tax losses, deferred tax assets or deferred tax liabilities - i.e. negative tax expense will result in cash tax receipts.
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Assumptions
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Notes 1. Opening balance assumptions are specified in $Millions. 2. Retained Profits are used to balance the Opening Balance Sheet. 3. Other Current Assets and Other Current Liabilities assumed to impact Other Operating Cash Flows. 4. Other Non-Current Assets and Non-Other Current Liabilities assumed to impact Other Investing Cash Flows.
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Outputs
Section 3.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Section Cover Notes Contains base case outputs - i.e. includes only the impacts of base case assumptions.
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Forecast Outputs
Sub-Section 3.1.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Sub-Section Cover Notes: Contains forecast outputs for all areas within the underlying business other than financial statements.
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Operational - Outputs
Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Operating Expenditure Capital Expenditure - Assets Capital Expenditure - Intangibles 125.0 25.0 40.0 15.0 2.5 128.1 25.6 41.0 15.4 2.6 131.3 26.3 42.0 15.8 2.6 134.6 26.9 43.1 16.2 2.7 138.0 27.6 44.2 16.6 2.8 141.4 28.3 45.3 17.0 2.8 145.0 29.0 46.4 17.4 2.9 148.6 29.7 47.5 17.8 3.0
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
30
-
2.5% 30
-
2.2% 30
-
2.8% 30
-
2.5% 30
-
2.5% 30
-
2.2% 30
-
2.8% 30
-
45
-
2.5% 45
-
2.2% 45
-
2.8% 45
-
2.5% 45
-
2.5% 45
-
2.2% 45
-
2.8% 45
-
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Assets - Outputs
Assets Balances ($Millions)
Opening Balance Capital Expenditure - Assets Depreciation Closing Balance Total Error Checks Result 145.0 15.0 (13.5) 146.5 146.5 15.4 (13.8) 148.0 148.0 15.8 (14.2) 149.6 149.6 16.2 (14.5) 151.2 151.2 16.6 (14.9) 152.9 152.9 17.0 (15.3) 154.6 154.6 17.4 (15.7) 156.3 156.3 17.8 (16.0) 158.1 -
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Capital - Outputs
Debt - Outputs
Funds Drawn ($Millions) Opening Balance Debt Drawdowns Debt Repayments Closing Debt Balance Interest Expense Base Interest Rate (% p.a.) Margin (% p.a.) All-In Interest Rate (% p.a.) Months in Financial Year Period % of Full Year Drawdowns/Repayments % into Period Average Debt Outstanding Interest Expense Opening Interest Payable Interest Expense Interest Paid Closing Interest Payable 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 50.0 3.3 3.3 (3.3) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 50.0 3.3 3.3 (3.3) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 50.0 3.3 3.3 (3.3) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 50.0 3.3 3.3 (3.3) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 52.5 3.4 3.4 (3.4) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 55.0 3.6 3.6 (3.6) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 55.0 3.6 3.6 (3.6) 5.00% 1.50% 6.50% 12 100.0% 50.0% 55.0 3.6 3.6 (3.6) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 (45.0) 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Dividends Payable & Paid - Calculation Dividend Determination Method: Dividend Declaration Period? Opening Retained Profits Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) Maximum Dividends Allowed Opening Cash at Bank Cash Flow Available for Dividends Total Available Cash For Dividends Dividend Payout Ratio - % of NPAT Assumed Dividends - Not Applied Target Dividends Declared Actual Dividends Declared Alert Check (Limited Dividends) % of NPAT Yes 29.8 29.8 15.0 38.5 53.5 50.0% 14.9 14.9 Yes 60.9 30.6 91.6 38.6 27.5 66.0 50.0% 15.3 15.3 Yes 76.2 31.5 107.7 50.7 28.2 78.9 50.0% 15.7 15.7 Yes 92.0 32.3 124.3 63.2 29.0 92.2 50.0% 16.2 16.2 Yes 108.1 33.1 141.2 76.0 34.6 110.6 50.0% 16.5 16.5 Yes 124.7 33.8 158.5 94.1 30.3 124.4 50.0% 16.9 16.9 Yes 141.6 34.7 176.3 107.5 31.2 138.6 50.0% 17.4 17.4 Yes 158.9 35.7 194.6 121.2 32.0 153.2 50.0% 17.8 17.8 -
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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Outputs
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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Financial Statements
Sub-Section 3.2.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Sub-Section Cover Notes: Contains the forecast Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement.
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Income Statement
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Gross Margin
Operating Expenditure
EBITDA
Depreciation & Amortization
EBIT
Interest Expense
Notes 1. Revenues and expenses enter the Income Statement as positive and negative numbers respectively. Go to Balance Sheet
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Balance Sheet
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Non-Current Assets
Assets Intangibles Deferred Tax Assets Other Non-Current Assets Total Non-Current Assets 146.5 13.4 5.0 164.9 216.7 148.0 15.3 6.0 169.3 234.6 149.6 17.3 7.0 173.9 252.9 151.2 19.3 8.0 178.5 271.6 152.9 21.4 9.0 183.2 295.7 154.6 23.5 10.0 188.1 315.1 156.3 25.7 11.0 193.0 335.1 158.1 27.9 12.0 198.0 355.6
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Balance Sheet
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Non-Current Liabilities
Debt Deferred Tax Liabilities Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Non-Current Liabilities 50.0 6.0 56.0 80.8 135.9 50.0 7.0 57.0 83.3 151.2 50.0 8.0 58.0 85.9 167.0 50.0 9.0 59.0 88.5 183.1 55.0 10.0 65.0 96.0 199.7 55.0 11.0 66.0 98.6 216.6 55.0 12.0 67.0 101.2 233.9 55.0 13.0 68.0 103.8 251.8
Total Equity
Total Error Check Result Alert Check (Negative Cash) Go to Income Statement Go to Cash Flow Statement
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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x h O
Year Ending 31 December 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
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Dashboard Outputs
Sub-Section 3.3.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 38 of 50
O
Income Statement [Insert Tile 2 Heading]
Revenue
2012 (F) 131.3 (26.3) 105.1 (42.0) 63.0 (14.8) 48.2 (3.3) 44.9 (13.5) 31.5 2013 (F) 134.6 (26.9) 107.7 (43.1) 64.6 (15.2) 49.4 (3.3) 46.2 (13.8) 32.3 2014 (F) 138.0 (27.6) 110.4 (44.2) 66.2 (15.6) 50.6 (3.4) 47.2 (14.2) 33.1 2015 (F) 141.4 (28.3) 113.1 (45.3) 67.9 (16.0) 51.9 (3.6) 48.3 (14.5) 33.8 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) Revenue
Year Ending 31 December Revenue Cost of Goods Sold Gross Margin Operating Expenditure EBITDA Depreciation & Amortization EBIT Interest Expense Net Profit Before Tax Tax Expense / (Benefit) Net Profit After Tax
2010 (F) 125.0 (25.0) 100.0 (40.0) 60.0 (14.1) 45.9 (3.3) 42.6 (12.8) 29.8
2011 (F) 128.1 (25.6) 102.5 (41.0) 61.5 (14.5) 47.0 (3.3) 43.8 (13.1) 30.6
31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 2016 (F) 2017 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
EBITDA Margin
48.0%
48.0%
48.0%
48.0%
48.0%
48.0%
Balance Sheet
Year Ending 31 December Current Assets Non-Current Assets Total Assets Current Liabilities Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Net Assets Ordinary Equity Retained Profits Total Equity 2010 (F) 51.8 164.9 216.7 24.8 56.0 80.8 135.9 75.0 60.9 135.9 2011 (F) 65.3 169.3 234.6 26.3 57.0 83.3 151.2 75.0 76.2 151.2 2012 (F) 79.0 173.9 252.9 27.9 58.0 85.9 167.0 75.0 92.0 167.0 2013 (F) 93.1 178.5 271.6 29.5 59.0 88.5 183.1 75.0 108.1 183.1 2014 (F) 112.4 183.2 295.7 31.0 65.0 96.0 199.7 75.0 124.7 199.7 2015 (F) 127.1 188.1 315.1 32.6 66.0 98.6 216.6 75.0 141.6 216.6 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Operating Expenditure
Operating Expenditure
EBITDA Breakdown
Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Operating Expenditure
200 150 100 50 (50) (100) 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F) 2017 (F)
Net Assets - 1
80.8 150.0 100.0 50.0 Assets Liabilities Net Assets 216.7 135.9
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Appendices
Section 4.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 40 of 50
Checks
Sub-Section 4.1.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 41 of 50
Checks
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O Error Checks
## Include summary in model name?
Error Checks
Error Checks Working Capital - Assumptions Accounts Receivable Balances ($Millions) Accounts Payable Balances ($Millions) Assets Balances ($Millions) Intangibles Balances ($Millions) Ordinary Equity - Outputs Income Statement Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement Total Errors: Check Include? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Flag -
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Checks
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O Sensitivity Checks
## Include summary in model name?
Sensitivity Checks
Sensitivity Checks Total Sensitivities: Check Include? Flag -
Page 43 of 50
Checks
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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x h O Alert Checks
## Include summary in model name?
Alert Checks
Alert Checks Ordinary Equity - Outputs Balance Sheet Total Alerts: Check Include? Yes Yes Flag -
Page 44 of 50
Lookup Tables
Sub-Section 4.2.
Forecast Business Planning Model 6.0 (Basic)
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Page 45 of 50
Names
LU_Mth_Days
Page 46 of 50
Names
LU_Mth_Names
Denomination
Denomination $Billions $Millions $'000 $
Names
LU_Denom Billions Millions Thousands Currency
Names
LU_Data_Term_Basis
Page 47 of 50
Names
LU_Periodicity Annual Semi_Annual Qtrly Mthly
Names
LU_Period_Type_Names Yr_Name Half_Yr_Name Qtr_Name Mth_Name
Periods In Year
Periods In Year 1 2 4 12
Names
LU_Pers_In_Yr Yrs_In_Yr Halves_In_Yr Qtrs_In_Yr Mths_In_Yr
Conversion Factors
Conversion Factors 10 100 1,000 1,000,000 1,000,000,000
Names
Ten Hundred Thousand Million Billion
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Names:
LU_Eq_Ord_Div_Meth
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Names
LU_Dashboard_Selected_Period
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