Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 20, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 20, 2013

Highlights
US Federal Reserve may reduce its stimulus measures later this year. US Federal Funds Rate kept at 0.25 percent in the current month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.3-mark in June. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that central bank may taper its bond buying program later this year depending on the growth in the US economy. US Federal Funds Rate kept unchanged at 0.25 percent in the current month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.9 points to 48.3-mark in June as against a rise of 49.2-level in May.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5822.3 19245.7 15112.19 1628.9 16045.5 1959.2 58497.8 13245.2 98.24 1373.60 21.62 6976.00 102.09 Prev. day 0.1 0.1 -1.3 -1.4 -0.9 -1.5 0.2 1.8 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.0

as on June 19, 2013 WoW 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.6 18.9 -0.1 2.5 -0.3 0.2 -2.2 3.1 MoM -5.4 -4.8 -1.3 -2.3 -5.0 -1.7 3.8 -7.5 4.2 -1.3 -3.9 -11.1 -3.0 YoY 15.0 5.2 17.7 20.0 16.8 2.0 2.3 51.3 16.9 -15.3 -23.8 -7.0 -0.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained sharply 1 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets which led to increase in demand for low yielding currency. Additionally, statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that central will reduce its bond buying program by end of this year as US economy is growing at a stronger pace exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day high of 81.67 and closed at 81.60 on Wednesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index 81.60 58.71 58.82 58.81 Prev. day 1.0 0.2 -0.06 -0.13 WoW 0.8 -1.5 1.60 1.48

as on June 19, 2013 MoM -3.4 -6.7 7.00 7.01 YoY 2.7 -4.4 4.95 4.95

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on account of auction of $7.15 billion of government debt quotas for foreigners. Further, upbeat domestic markets in the later part of the trade supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped as a result of concerns that US Federal Reserve will taper its bond buying program. The currency touched an intra-day high of 58.605 and closed at 58.71 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.2,433.70 crores th ($412.24 million) as on 19 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.80,771.40 crores ($14,940.70 million) till 19th June 2013. Outlook
US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR June13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Weak sentiments are seen in the global markets on the back slow growth in the Chinas manufacturing data coupled with mixed statement from the Federal Reserve yesterday. Thus taking cues from weak market scenario, we expect Rupee to depreciate today and strength in the DX will further add more downside pressure.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for June 20, 2013 Support 58.70/58.55 Resistance 59.20/59.50

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 20, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX after the Feds statement exerted downside pressure on the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.326 and closed at 1.3294 against the dollar on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of strength in the DX. Further weak global markets on account of announcement by Federal Reserve to reduce its bond buying program will exert more downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside will be cushioned or reversal can be seen as a result of expectation of favorable economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR June13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 78.60/78.40 78.90/79.10 valid for June 20, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR June 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3294 78.68 78.8 Prev. day -0.7 0.2 0.09

as on June 19, 2013 WoW -0.3 -2.0 2.51 MoM 3.2 -11.2 11.29 YoY 4.6 -12.1 11.41

78.8

0.02

2.45

11.29

11.42

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 1 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Additionally, a stronger DX added more downside pressure on the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5449 and closed at 1.5484 against dollar on Wednesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will add downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of forecast for optimistic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 20, 2013 Support 91.75/91.60 Resistance 92.10/92.40

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR June13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR June 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5484 90.862 91.91 Prev. day -1.01 -1.22 0.10

as on June 19, 2013

WoW -1.2 0.16 1.55

MoM 1.5 9.13 9.68

YoY -1.5 3.31 4.72

91.92

0.08

1.44

9.68

4.74

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| June 20, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated 1.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets in the early part of the trade which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 97.01 and closed at 96.46 against dollar on Wednesday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable trade balance data from the country. Outlook For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to increase in demand for the low-yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR June 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for June 20, 2013 Support 61.60/61.45 Resistance 62.0/62.20 Last 96.46 0.6078 61.78 61.79 Prev day 1.2 -1.28 0.21 0.15 as on June 19, 2013 WoW 0.5 0.36 3.09 3.10 MoM -5.7 14.27 14.99 14.96 YoY 21.3 -14.12 -12.95 -12.96

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR June13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 20, 2013

Indicator FOMC Press Conference BOE Gov King Speaks HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI German PPI m/m French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Eurogroup Meetings CBI Industrial Order Expectations Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI MPC Member Fisher Speaks Existing Home Sales Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Country US UK China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK Euro Euro UK US US UK US US Time (IST) 12:00am 1:30am 7:15am 11:30am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm Tentative All Day 3:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 7:30pm 7:30pm Actual 48.3 Forecast 49.4 0.0% 47.1 45.0 49.9 50.1 48.6 47.7 0.8% -15 343K 52.5 5.01M -0.6 Previous 49.2 -0.2% 46.4 44.3 49.4 49.7 48.3 47.2 -1.3% 4.52/2.5 -20 334K 52.3 4.97M -5.2 Impact High High High Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium High Medium Medium High High

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