Currencies Daily Report

Friday| June 21, 2013

Content
Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

Overview:

Research Team

Reena Rohit
Chief Manager
Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134

Anish Vyas
Research Analyst
[email protected]
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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 Currencies Daily Report
Friday| June 21, 2013

Highlights Market Highlights (% change) as on June 20, 2013

Prev.
Last WoW MoM YoY
World market rout continues as Asian equities trade in the red. day
NIFTY 5655.9 -2.9 -0.8 -7.5 10.8
Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 59.975 in yesterday’s trade.
th
US Unemployment Claims increased to 354,000 for w/e 14 June. SENSEX 18719.3 -2.7 -0.6 -6.9 2.4
German Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7-mark in current month.
DJIA 14758.32 -2.3 -2.8 -3.5 15.1
UK’s Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in the month of May.
The rout that began on Wednesday's late trade has continued S&P 1588.2 -2.5 -2.9 -4.7 17.1

thereafter. Asian equities have opened in the red with Nikkei and Hang FTSE 15549.2 -3.1 -3.5 -9.4 13.1
Seng are trading lower by around 1 percent.
KOSPI 1959.2 -1.5 4.1 -0.5 2.0
China's central bank infused liquidity of 50 billion yuan ($8.2 billion) in
the markets yesterday as a cash crunch drove money market rates to BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 16.0 3.7 5.4
record highs.
NIKKEI 13014.6 -1.7 -0.1 -9.2 47.5
US Unemployment Claims increased by 18,000 to 354,000 for the week
Nymex Crude 95.40 -2.9 -1.3 1.2 16.6
ending 14th June as against a rise of 336,000 in prior week. Flash
(July’13) - $/bbl
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell marginally to 52.2-
Comex Gold (Aug’13) 1285.90 -6.4 -7.3 -7.3 -20.4
mark in June from 52.3-level in last month. Existing Home Sales was at - $/oz
5.18 million in May as compared to 4.97 million a month ago. Philly Fed Comex 19.82 -8.3 -8.2 -11.9 -30.2
Manufacturing Index gained to 12.5-level in June with respect to -5.2- Silver(July’13) $/oz
mark in May. LME Copper (3 6773.00 -2.9 -4.1 -13.7 -7.6
month) -$/tonne
US Dollar Index CRB Index - - - - -
(Industrial)
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading
G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - 102.09 0.0 3.4 -3.0 -0.4
session as the announcement by the Federal Reserve to pullback its Yield
stimulus spending provided strong support to the currency. Treasury Source: Reuters
yields in the US markets increased sharply to a 22-year high thus US Dollar (% change) as on June 20, 2013
supporting gains in the DX. The DX touched an intra-day high of 82.32 Last
Prev.
WoW MoM YoY
day
and closed at 82.10 on Thursday.
Dollar Index 82.10 0.6 1.7 -2.0 3.3
Dollar/INR US $ / INR (Spot) 59.57 -1.5 -2.7 -7.5 -5.6
US $ / INR June’13 59.79 1.65 2.90 8.33 6.36
The Indian Rupee depreciated 1.5 percent in yesterday’s trading Futures (NSE)
session. The currency depreciated on account concerns over the current US $ / INR June’13 59.81 1.69 2.93 8.36 6.41
Futures (MCX-SX)
account deficit of the country coupled with strength in the DX. Further,
announcement by the Federal Reserve regarding the reduction in its Technical Chart – USD/INR
stimulus measures exerted downside on the currency. Additionally,
weak global and domestic markets acted as a negative factor.
The Reserve Bank of India intervened at around 59.90 levels in order to
provide respite to the fall in the Rupee, but the currency continued to
depreciate. Rupee touched an all time low of 59.975 and closed at 59.57
against dollar on Thursday.
For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.2,892.40 crores
($490.33 million) as on 20th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital
th
inflows stood at Rs.80,312.70 crores ($14,862.60 million) till 20 June
2013.
Source: Telequote
Outlook
Technical Outlook valid for June 21, 2013
From the intra-day perspective, we expect the Rupee to weaken on
account of choppy global and domestic markets. Strength in the DX as a Trend Support Resistance

result of Fed’s comments will continue to exert downside pressure on US Dollar/INR June’13
Up 59.60/59.50 60.10/60.30
(NSE/MCX-SX)
the currency.

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Friday| June 21, 2013

Euro/INR Euro (% change) as on June 20, 2013

The Euro depreciated 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading session on the Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY
back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX exerted Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3218 -0.6 -1.2 2.4 5.4
downside pressure on the currency. Favorable data from the Euro Zone
Euro / INR (Spot) 78.87 -0.2 -2.1 -10.4 -12.3
also couldn’t provide much of relief to the fall in the currency. The Euro
touched an intra-day low of 1.3161 and closed at 1.3218 against the Euro / INR June ’13 78.9 0.20 1.94 11.13 10.66
dollar on Thursday. Futures (NSE)

German Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 0.3 percent in May as Euro / INR June’13 78.9 0.16 1.92 12.67 10.62
Futures (MCX-SX)
against a fall of 0.2 percent in April. French Flash Manufacturing
Source: Reuters
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.9 points to 48.3-mark
Technical Chart – Euro
in June from rise of 46.4-level in May. German Flash Manufacturing PMI
fell by 0.7 points to 48.7-mark in June with respect to 49.4-level in last
month European Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 points to
48.7-mark in June from 48.3-level in May. European Consumer
Confidence was at -19-mark in May with respect to -22-level a month
earlier.

Outlook

In today’s session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of

strength in the DX and uncertainty in the global financial markets due to
Fed’s announcement on Wednesday.
Source: Telequote
Technical Outlook valid for June 21, 2013
Trend Support Resistance GBP (% change) as on June 20, 2013
Euro/INR June’13
Sideways 78.60/78.40 79.10/79.30
(NSE/MCX-SX)
Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

GBP/INR $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5508 0.15 -1.3 2.3 -0.5

GBP / INR (Spot) 92.421 1.72 1.45 9.88 4.79
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.2 percent yesterday on the
back of favorable retail sales data from the country. However, sharp GBP / INR 92.42 0.55 1.62 10.15 4.61
upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk aversion in June’13 Futures
(NSE)
the global markets. Additionally, a stronger DX acted as a negative factor
for the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5517 GBP / INR June 92.38 0.51 1.61 10.10 4.56
’13 Futures
and closed at 1.55508 against dollar on Thursday. (MCX-SX)
Source: Reuters
UK’s Retail Sales rose by 2.1 percent in May as against a decline of 1.1 Technical Chart – Sterling Pound
percent in April. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order
Expectations was at -18-mark in June from earlier fall of 20-level in May.

Outlook

We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of

strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will add downside
pressure on the currency.

Technical Outlook valid for June 21, 2013

Trend Support Resistance
GBP/INR June ’13
Up 92.20/92.0 92.55/92.70
(NSE/MCX-SX)
Source: Telequote

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Friday| June 21, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) as on June 20, 2013

The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.8 percent in the yesterday’s trading Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY
session. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on the JPY / $ (Spot) 97.27 0.8 2.0 -5.1 21.2
back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which led to increase in
JPY / INR (Spot) 0.6141 1.04 1.19 13.85 -13.14
demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low
JPY 100 / INR June’13 61.05 -1.19 -1.05 13.27 -14.13
of 98.28 and closed at 97.27 against dollar on Thursday. Futures (NSE)
JPY 100 / INR June’13 60.98 -1.31 -1.17 13.13 -14.24
Outlook Futures (MCX-SX)
Source: Reuters
Technical Chart – JPY
For intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues from
choppy global markets.

Technical Outlook valid for June 21, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

JPY/INR June ’13

Up 60.90/60.70 61.30/61.45
(NSE/MCX-SX)

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on June 21, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Japan 12:05pm - - - High
Current Account Euro 1:30pm - 15.1B 25.9B Medium
Public Sector Net Borrowing UK 2:00pm - 12.7B 8.0B Medium
ECOFIN Meetings Euro All Day - - - Medium

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