Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Support price of paddy hiked by Rs 60 to Rs 1,310 per quintal
Amid expectations of normal rain, the government today approved a hike of Rs 60 in paddy support price (MSP) to Rs 1,310 per quintal in order to encourage farmers to grow more in the ongoing kharif season. The government also increased the minimum support price (MSP) of pulses and oilseeds by up to Rs 450 and Rs 320 per quintal, to boost ouput and reduce import dependence. While MSP for common paddy has been raised to Rs 1,310 from Rs 1,250 per quintal, the support price of grade 'A' variety of paddy has been hiked by Rs 65 to Rs 1,345/quintal. Sowing of paddy, the main kharif crop, begins with the onset of monsoon in June and harvesting starts in October. The normal monsoon forecast by the Met Department for this year, coupled with hike in MSP, is expected to boost paddy area and productivity. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 27, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18876 5682 60.20 97.05 1211.4

1.75 1.68 -0.86 1.62 -1.48

0.84 0.47 1.04 1.73 -5.79

-6.37 -7.02 7.27 2.15 -12.16

11.25 10.51 5.81 20.99 -23.21

.Source: Reuters

North Eastern states seek PM's intervention in sugar rationing

Having failed to get the launch of new sugar rationing programme deferred, north eastern states are now seeking the prime minister's intervention. The eight states are banking on the prime minister now because the food ministry is not willing to give any leeway in the implementation of the new sugar rationing mechanism in which states will have to buy sugar from the open market and sell it at a subsidised price. From July, the central government will stop procuring sugar from mills for ration shops across the country. States will have to buy it from open market through tendering and sell at a subsidised price at ration shops, while the central government will pay a subsidy of Rs 18.50 per kg. Citing logistics challenges, the Mizoram government has questioned the subsidy fixed by the centre. In a letter to the food ministry, it has asked for a higher subsidy of at least Rs 25 per kg. (Source: Economic Times)

Monsoon skips Marathwada

Although most parts of Maharashtra have received above average rainfall this monsoon, the Marathwada region is still dry. As a result, over a thousand villages are still dependent on tankers for drinking water supply in the region. Deficient rainfall has affected sowing of crops such as cotton, soybean and tur dal. The Marathwada region is located in the central region and it comprises agriculturally and industrially important districts such as Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed, Usmanabad and Latur. Farmeractivist Suresh Dubale said that the Godavari river, which is the lifeline of the region, has almost dried up. There have been only a few showers since early June, which it is not enough for crops such as cotton and tur dal. (Source: Business Line)

EU wheat crop looking good despite serious British problems

The European's Union's wheat crop is developing well and a larger harvest is expected this summer despite worry about Britain's crop, observers said on Thursday. Weather has been crop-friendly for EU wheat in the past weeks and harvest estimates are being marked up. Overall wheat is developing positively apart from Britain, which remains the main problem area. Plentiful EU export supplies are expected, especially in the east EU. (Source: Reuters)

Edible oil stockists stay away due to monsoon

Groundnut oil, soyabean and rapeseed refined oil prices dropped for the third consecutive day on the oils and oilseeds market on Thursday. The fall is in view of optimism generated over the kharif oilseeds crop. Continuous drop in value of the rupee against dollar has made imports costly. Stockists are keeping away from building inventories in view of monsoon. (Source: Business Line)

Korea buys 1 mln T India wheat, replacing Australia

South Korea has bought 1 million tonnes of wheat from India's state-run traders, government-backed Food Corporation of India (FCI) said on Thursday, replacing its traditional feed wheat supplier, Australia. Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Yemen have emerged as the other top buyers from India, which is exporting wheat from government warehouses to reduce huge stocks which have piled up thanks to bumper harvests since 2007. India wheat is going to South Korea as feed wheat because there was not much lower quality wheat available from Australia. South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines are the top three wheat importers in Asia. (Source: Reuters)

Food Corp secures good price for wheat exports

The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has exported wheat from state warehouses at an average price of $311.69 a tonne, higher than the reserve price fixed by the government, primarily due to good quality and competitive pricing. The reserve price for the export of two lots of wheat---two million tonnes (mt) and 2.5 mt---was fixed at $228 a tonne and $300 a tonne, respectively. The Centres previous wheat export tender had fetched about $50 a tonne more than the rate prevailing in the international market. According to a statement issued by FCI today, so far, India had exported four mt of wheat. Last year, the government started selling wheat from its state inventories, the first time since 200203. Successive years of bumper harvests and procurement had resulted in its granaries being full. (Source: Business Line)

South Africa's 2013/14 opening maize stocks at 3.2 mln tones

South Africa's opening maize stocks for the 2013/14 season were recorded at 3.2 million tonnes in May, with exports for the season so far at 265,125 tonnes, data showed on Monday. Closing maize stocks for the 2012/13 season were at 1.417 million tonnes compared with 994,00 tonnes for the previous season, the South African Grain Information Service (SAGIS) said. Total maize exports for the 2012/13 season were at 1.946 million tonnes, compared with 2.575 million tonnes the previous season (Source: Reuters)

Monsoon eases, boosting summer crop planting

Monsoon rains may ease again next week after heavy downpours for nearly a month, giving room to speed up planting of summer crops such as rice, soybean and cotton. Rains were three percent above average in the week that ended on June 26, but the monsoon remains crucial for the 55 percent of the country's farmland that relies on it for irrigation to grow crops. India is one of the world's biggest producers of cereals and sugar, but also has one of the largest populations to feed. (Source: Economic
Times)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures continued to decline on yesterday touching a new contract low of ` 3087 and settled 1.37% lower due to comfortable supplies to meet stockist demand. However, Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of good demand at such lower levels, upside in the prices is capped on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 3.74 lakh hectares have st been covered as on 21 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 27, 2013 % change Last 3107 3097 Prev day -1.37 -1.37 WoW -2.91 -3.19 MoM -3.67 -2.70
Source: Reuters

YoY -29.54 -28.26

Spread Matrix
Closing 3106.8 3097 3169 3234 19-Jul-13 -9.8 0 -

as on June 27, 2013 20-Aug-13 62.2 72 0 20-Sep-13 127.2 137 65 0 as on June 26, 2013 Stocks as on 25th June 78907 47180 10794 136881 Qty in Process 863 1014 400 2277

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 26th June 79318 47690 10885 137893 Qty in Process 884 2156 339 3379

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may continue to decline as good rains thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may pressurize prices. However, an increase in the MSP of kharif pulses may support prices at lower levels. Good demand at lower levels coupled with declining arrivals may also support the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 28, 2013 Resistance 3115-3140

3050-3070

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean continued to witness downside pressure yesterday tracking the sowing progress of soybean. An appreciation in the Rupee also pressurized prices. However, higher international prices limited the downside in the domestic prices. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.33% and 0.99% lower respectively on Thursday. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long th side in July contract wef. 27 June, 2013. Two major soybean growing states MP and Maharashtra have received above normal rains so far in June. Thus, good monsoon and higher prices earned last year is expected to aid sowing this season. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 8.13 lk ha against normal 3.37 lk ha. Soybean was planted on 1.32 lk ha, against 0.16 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean continued to gain and settled 0.93% higher yesterday ahead of the planting intentions data to be released on Friday. Also, estimates of lower soybean stocks as on June 1 supported prices. However, favorable weather capped gains in the far month contracts. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks. According to the latest USDA report, U.S. soybeans were 92 percent planted the lowest for this time of year since 2009, but not far from the five-year U.S. average of 95 percent.

Market Highlights

as on June 27, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.33 -8.92 -0.99 0.93 -0.08 -0.84 -9.15 3.41 -1.95 -2.31

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3676 3636 1549 3454 3420

MoM -6.77 -5.03 3.11 -1.95 -1.2

YoY -4.99 -6.77 2.36 -13 -12.84

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3676 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3636 3151 3164 0 -485 0 19-Jul-13 -40 18-Oct-13 -525

as on June 27, 2013 20-Nov-13 -512 -472 13 0 as on June27, 2013 20-Aug-13 9.95 44 0 20-Sep-13 56.95 91 47 0 as on June 26, 2013 Qty in Process 120 0 0 120 as on June 26, 2013 Qty in Process 30 91 100 0 1600 200 10 2013 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3454.05 3420 3464 3511 19-Jul-13 -34.05 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Stocks as on 26th June 20135 2491 401 23027 Stocks as on 26th June 3040 4155 20389 634 59456 5023 1670 94367 Qty in Process 40 0 0 40 Qty in Process 0 314 50 0 1660 150 0 2174 Stocks as on 25th June 20045 2491 401 22937 Stocks as on 25th June 3010 4101 20288 634 58972 4932 1660 93600

Outlook
Soybean prices are expected to trade lower today on account of higher sowing and above normal monsoon. Rupee appreciation may also pressurize prices. However, an increase in the MSP coupled with tight supplies in the domestic as well as US markets may support prices. Also, withdrawal of margins special may keep sentiments positive.

Sagar Total

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed July futures continued to decline yesterday and settled 0.84% lower on Thursday amidst higher supplies. Spillover effect from other oilseeds is also seen on the mustard prices. Although Prices gained last week due to lower level demand but, comfortable supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt again pressurized prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Although overall trend in mustard remain weak on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets, prices may remain find support at lower arrivals tracking an increase in the MSP of kharif oilseeds.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 28, 2013 Support 3590-3610 3395-3408 Resistance 3665-3690 3435-3450

Source: Telequote

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil July futures extended the losses of the previous session on account of an appreciation in the Rupee. Ref soy oil July futures as well as spot settled 0.81% and 0.25% lower on Thursday. Prices that gained significantly in the past one month on the back of weak rupee and Ramazan demand, declined in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 693.00 679.35 46.40 2348 505.00 Prev day -0.25 -0.81 -0.49 -0.93 -0.06

as on June 27, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Futures

WoW -3.62 -5.42 -4.13 -4.44 -1.35

MoM -4.96 -4.73 -4.59 -0.47 4.73

YoY -7.52 -10.44 -11.13 -21.52 -10.71

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 693 679.35 671.5 664.35 19-Jul-13 -13.65 0 20-Aug-13 -21.5 -7.85 0 -

as on June 27, 2013 20-Sep-13 -28.65 -15 -7.15 0 as on June 27, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade lower as expectations of Rupee appreciation today may pressurize prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

Crude Palm Oil

CPO traded on mixed note yesterday and settled 0.06% lower. An increase in the export tax in Indonesia supported prices while an appreciation in the Rupee pressurized prices. KLCE palm oil futures declined 0.93% yesterday on credit concerns in China. However, strong export data and weak Ringgit capped the losses. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil between June 1-25 were reported at 1,167,266 tn, up by 9.6% compared to 1,064,925 tn between May 125 as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

CPO Spread Matrix

29-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 Closing 505 502.7 504.1 29-Jun-13 0 31-Jul-13 -2.3 0 -

31-Aug-13 -0.9 1.4 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO prices may trade on a mixed note as Rupee appreciation may pressurize prices while increase in export tax may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 28, 2013 Support 670-675 496-500 Resistance 684-688 506-510

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.13% higher on Thursday. Prices have gained over the last few sessions on account of good overseas as well as local demand. However, good arrivals have capped sharp gains. Currently, about 65-70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,550 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13709 13420 5818 6050 Prev day -0.55 0.13 0.80 -0.30

as on June 27, 2013 % Change WoW 1.48 1.44 4.72 6.85 MoM 1.70 2.84 -3.58 1.37 YoY -1.55 -0.65 58.46 48.36

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13708.8 13420 13735 14057.5 19-Jul-13 -288.8 0 20-Aug-13 26.2 315 0 -

as on June 27, 2013 20-Sep-13 348.7 637.5 322.5 0 as on June 27, 2013 19-Jul-13 232 0 20-Aug-13 328 96 0 20-Sep-13 422 190 94 0 as on June 26, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 25th June Process 1025 7417 8442 5051 NCDEX July contract 54 48 102 171

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 14,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5818 6050 6146 6240

Outlook
Jeera prices are expected to trade higher today as good overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, good supplies may cap sharp gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 26th June 1037 7390 8427 5071 Qty in Process 42 87 129 199

Turmeric
After gaining for the last seven consecutive sessions, Turmeric futures corrected from higher levels yesterday on account of profit booking and settled 0.3% lower. Prices have gained due to good quality arrivals in the spot markets. Also, fresh export enquiries as well as lower arrivals have supported the prices. However, good progress of the monsoon as well as good sowing has capped sharp gains. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 4,000 bags and 3,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP th is reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to trade higher today supported by lower arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries. However, huge carryover stocks may cap the upside. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 28, 2013

Support 13210-13300 5976-6010 Resistance 13500-13620 6100-6146
Source: Telequote

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar traded on a flat note yesterday and settled marginally lower by 0.13%. Prices have declined over the last few days as the government said it not will consider increase in the import duty until September 2013. However, output concerns on the back of drought conditions last year have supported prices at lower levels. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3020 `/qtl 507.8 $/tonne 366.00 $/tonne -3.17 -1.93 -0.13 Last 3056

as on June 27, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.06 0.20 -0.30 4.04 0.55 MoM -0.51 0.03 6.82 -1.20 YoY 1.88 4.82 -16.93 -24.48

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3056.25 3020 3073 3127 19-Jul-13 -36.25 0 20-Aug-13 16.75 53 0 -

as on June 27, 2013 20-Sep-13 70.75 107 54 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 26th June 2198 7600 1022 1228 12048 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400 Stocks as on 25th June 2198 7637 1022 1228 12085

as on June 26, 2013 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe Sugar as well as ICE Sugar futures declined sharply by 1.93% and 3.17% on Thursday on the back of huge deliveries for the July expiry. Prices gained earlier this week as heavy rains in Brazil halted harvesting. Reports of continued showers this week may delay the crushing further. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note today. Prices may decline as good rains in the cane growing regions as well as the government not increasing import duties may keep prices under check. However, Ramadan demand coupled with output concerns this season may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for June 28, 2013 Support 3000-3010 Resistance 3030-3040

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton corrected from higher levels and settled 0.72% lower on Thursday on account of Rupee appreciation coupled with higher cotton planting this season along with good monsoon. However, tight supplies coupled with demand from the yarn industry have supported prices. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1078.5 19440 83.13 91.1

as on June 27, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.47 0.51 -0.72 1.25 -0.66 -2.11 -1.25 -2.67 MoM YoY 0.51 #N/A 6.93 21.20 3.01 15.20 1.11 12.19
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19440 19760 20330 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 27, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 320 0 890 570 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 28.13 lakh ha as against 24.59 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 26th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 26, 2013

Stocks as on 25rd June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton futures continued to decline and settled 0.66% lower on Thursday on limited buying by the mills. Concerns over the economic health of China, the world's top textile market have pressurized prices. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices. A U.S. crop report released this week showed continued delays for new cotton crop, adding to a sense of tightness in upcoming U.S. supplies.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade higher today on account fresh export enquiries for cotton and yarn. Higher cotton planting figures so far in the domestic markets and smooth progress of monsoon may however, cap sharp upside in the prices in the coming weeks.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 28, 2013 Support 1065-1072 19490-19620 Resistance 1085-1091 19880-20000
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Friday| June 28, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 2.52% and 1.99% lower respectively on Thursday due to improvement in the sowing of the guar crop. However, slack supplies as farmers held back stocks on hopes of better prices limited sharp fall in the prices. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6970 `/qtl 20620 `/qtl 20150 `/qtl -1.99 0.54 -2.52 Last Prev day 7234 -0.31

as on June 27, 2013 % change WoW -1.57 -8.41 -2.73 -10.48 MoM -17.77 -18.00 -21.54 -22.71 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7234.4 6970 5830 5670 19-Jul-13 -264.4 0 -

as on June 27, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1404.4 -1140 0 20-Sep-13 -1564.4 -1300 -160 0 as on June 27, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3259.7 -2790 0 20-Sep-13 -3789.7 -3320 -530 0 as on June 26, 2013 Stocks as on 25thJune 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20619.7 20150 17360 16830 19-Jul-13 -469.7 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 26th June 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Guar prices may continue to decline today as Supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand which may exert downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, a prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 28, 2013 Support 6740-6850 6740-6880 19600-19830 19600-19870 Resistance 7060-7200 7060-7200 20300-20710 20300-20720

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com