The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems

an Interdisciplinary Approach

4 6 November 2004 Centro Monte Verit Ascona (Ticino - Switzerland) www.usw2004.arch.unisi.ch

Organised by

Sponsored by

Introduction
The workshop aims to outline a conceptual framework for modelling and forecasting the dynamics of both growth-limited cities and megacities. It will bring together experts from several fields so as to approach the problem from an interdisciplinary point of view. One of the most challenging tasks is the multilevel modelling of urban systems, which reflects the various interdependencies between structural (models from physics and mathematics) and social development (spatial decision making and urban planning models). The workshop is structured not only to emphasize the contributions from different disciplines but also to underline specific problems like model calibration, data availability and management, case studies and interactions with urban planners.

Scientific board
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Sergio Albeverio, Accademia di architettura, CH-6850 Mendrisio, and Institut fr Angewandte Mathematik, Universitt Bonn, D-53115 Bonn, Wegelerstrasse 6; [email protected]; www.izks.uni-bonn.de Prof. Dr. Michael Batty, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London, WC1B 6BT London; [email protected], www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/news.htm PD Dr. Volker Jentsch, Interdisziplinres Zentrum fr Komplexe Systeme, Universitt Bonn, D-53115 Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 176; [email protected], www.izks.uni-bonn.de Prof. Dr. Dr. Frank Schweitzer, Eidgenssische Technische Hochschule (ETH), ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zrich, [email protected], http://www.ais.fraunhofer.de/~frank/, http://summa.physik.huberlin.de/~frank/ Prof. Dr. Ferdinando Semboloni, Dipartimento Urbanistica e Pianificazione del Territorio, Universit di Firenze, I-50121 Firenze; http://fs.urba.arch.unifi.it

Program
Thursday: 4 November 2004 Session 1: General dynamical models for urban problems Keywords: urban growth, city evolution, pedestrian dynamics, self-organization, fractals models, urban cluster dynamics, space syntax, continuum state cellular automata. 9.00 9.45 9.45 10.30 10.45 11.30 11.30 12.15 M. Batty P. Torrens
Coffee break

I. Benenson A. Vancheri

Session 2: Models for Economics and models for megacities Keywords: sustainable urban development, large-scale city formation, sociodynamics, econophysics, synergetics, applied geography. 14.00 14.45 14.45 15.30 15.45 16.30 17.15 18.00 16.30 17.15 18.00 19.00 F. Schweitzer D. Helbing
Coffee break

D.H. Zanette P. Frankhauser C. Andersson Discussion: Interdisciplinary approach to urban problems. (Chairman: M. Batty) Possible topics: - Organize collaborations and the searching for a common scientific language. - Multi-level modelling: interdisciplinary models with a good theoretical background. - The interface between theoretical models and practical applications.

Friday, 5 November Session 3: Models from Information Science and data management Keywords: data mining, soft-computing methods, geo-referenced data, GIS, multi-agents models, artificial worlds, classical cellular automata, data availability. 9.00 9.45 9.45 10.30 10.45 11.30 11.30 12.15 S. Lombardo F. Semboloni
Coffee break

A. Cecchini M. Birkin

Session 4: Related mathematical and physical theories Keywords: stochastic processes, statistical mechanics, percolation, dynamical systems, diffusion, neural networks, power laws, phase transitions. 14.00 14.45 14.45 15.30 15.45 16.30 17.15 18.00 16.30 17.15 18.00 19.00 G. Carlier J. Portugali
Coffee break

L. Bogachev J. Johnson G. B. West Discussion: Open problems in urban systems. (Chairman: F. Schweitzer) Possible topics: - Models calibration and validation: how meaningfully interface models and reality. - Phase transitions in urban growth: their identifications, social and economical consequences. - Measures for quality of urban life and sustainable urban development.

19.30

Social Dinner

Saturday: 6 November Session 5: Model calibration/validation and forecasts Keywords: calibration of models parameters, comparison between empirical data and simulations, optimization, forecasts of stochastic models for complex systems. 9.00 9.45 9.45 10.30 10.45 11.30 11.30 12.15 P. Allen A. Bazzani
Coffee break

R. White G. Engelen

Session 6: Dynamical models II, and case studies 14.00 14.45 14.45 15.30 15.45 16.30 17.15 18.00 16.30 17.15 18.00 19.00 J. Acebillo V. Cutini
Coffee break

K. Nagel G. Haag D. Pumain Discussion: Trans-national collaborations. (Chairman: V. Jentsch) Possible topics: - State of the art of the European network of excellence S4 (spatial simulation for social sciences). - Possible collaboration with the European network of excellence EXYSTENCE. - Ideas for new European proposals into the FP6. - Other types of trans-national research projects; research projects with developing countries.

Abstracts
(in accordance with the program)

Fifty Years of Urban Modelling: From Macro-Statics to Micro-Dynamics

Michael Batty Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, 1-19 Torrington Place, London WC1E 6BT [email protected] http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/ Friday, July 30, 2004

Abstract: Computer models of urban and regional systems where first proposed and implemented in the mid-1950s in North America, largely in response to the impact of new transportation technologies on cities and rising affluence which provided populations with massively enhanced personal mobility. The generation of models which dominated theoretical and applied work from this time until the mid-1970s, simulated aggregate populations in small areas, usually at the level of census tracts, at cross-sections in time, their structure being based on key relationships which had emerged from analogies with force and potential in classical physics, and notions about macroeconomic functioning (Batty, 1976). Fifty years ago it was assumed that cities could be modeled as if they were in equilibrium for it appeared that when change took place, the structure and form of the industrial city with its well-defined centre and simple pattern of subcentres was reinforced. In fact, these assumptions really dominated thinking about cities in the first half rather then the second half of the twentieth century, and even while these cross sectional aggregate land use transportation models were being implanted, a sea change in our thinking about cities was taking place. In fact, dynamics was not entirely ignored in these early models for there were various attempts to make them temporally responsive (Batty, 1971). But time series data for cities was much less available than spatial data at the cross-section and thus few dynamics models were implemented, notwithstanding the emphasis on urban growth. In the 1970s, many of these early models were found wanting and researchers began to consider how models more responsive to dramatic and surprising change in cities could be fashioned. There were various attempts to apply the emerging science of nonlinearity to urban systems with many models reflecting, catastrophe, bifurcation, and chaotic dynamics being proposed (Wilson, 1981). But these models were still largely aggregate. A little later as computers become ever more powerful and as the notion of artificial intelligence began to change from top down to bottom up, onto the agenda came the notion that individual behaviors might be modeled in terms of spatial location and the mobility of populations. Suddenly in the early 1990s, dynamic models based on fine scale cells and individual behaviors involving agents seemed possible, and this has led to a new generation of urban growth models in which the notion of state change at the level of cells has begun to find favor (Batty, 2005). These models were not only consistent with this sea change in thinking about cities as dynamic systems but were also driven by new advances in fine scale data and in GIS. In this paper, we will review this experience in detail, showing how different paradigms have dominated the development of urban simulation models during the last fifty years. What we will do

is sketch different model types, focusing on their advantages and disadvantages and showing that rather than great progress being made towards some unified homogeneous general urban model what has happened is that different perspectives on the urban system had been developed implying rather different model-based approaches. This plurality of theory and application is important because what it suggests is that no single approach or model can deal with all the issues that face us in understanding the development of city systems. In fact, contemporary equivalents of the models developed some 50 years ago are still being widely used (Wegener, 1994), and some will be presented at this meeting. This paper will present an overview of all these developments and will attempt to place these kinds of models in their broadest context. References Batty, M. (1971) Modelling Cities as Dynamic Systems, Nature, 231, 425-428. Batty, M. (1976) Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibration, Predictions, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Batty, M. (2005) Agents, Cells and Cities: New Representational Models for Simulating MultiScale Urban Dynamics, Environment and Planning A, forthcoming. Wegener, M. (1994) Operational Urban Models: State of the Art, Journal of the American Planning Association, 60, 17-30. Wilson, A. G. (1981) Catastrophe Theory and Bifurcation: Applications to Urban and Regional Systems, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.

Complexity and Downtown Environments

Paul M. Torrens Department of Geography, University of Utah 260 S. Central Campus Dr., 270, 84112 Salt Lake City [email protected] Abstract: Downtown environments have always been of key interest to geographers, but a recent upsurge in the attention afforded dense urban settings has been remarkable. A confluence of developments is forming, centered at our urban cores. These developments are at once technological and social, but ultimately they are spatial in nature. Location-based and locationaware technologies are being introduced, enabling new forms of human interaction in urban contexts and allowing people to engage with the urban environment in new ways. New perspectives on old views are reshaping the way we theorize about downtown environments, while new policy concerns suggest new consideration of the urban core. Many research opportunities remain open for exploration in these contexts. Here at the University of Utah, we have begun to make in-roads into some of these areas of inquiry. This talk will present experiments and results from some of the projects we are running to explore new and emerging phenomena related to complexity and downtown environments.

The City as a Human-Driven System

Itzhak Benenson1,2
2

Department of Geography and Human Environment Environment Simulation Laboratory, Porter School of Environmental Studies, Tel Aviv University [email protected] http://www.tau.ac.il/bennya

Abstract: The recent boom in high-resolution GIS provides exciting results illustrated by, for example, extreme and irregular heterogeneity of urban residential distributions obtained at the resolution of individual buildings. For eight Israeli cities, I demonstrate that whatever variable is tested - family income, number of children, level of education the distribution is homogeneous over some areas and heterogeneous over others; yet, no infrastructure or other external factor helps explain why this is so. I propose to explain this and other high-resolution phenomena on the basis of human actions while claiming that the models can adequately capture these actions by means of choice algorithms. In the lecture, I present agent-based models of urban dynamics that employ different assumptions regarding the ability of householders and developers to sense and estimate and regarding their tolerance to unfamiliar social and physical environments. Intuitively, the subsequent variability in characteristics and agent behavior should increase the uncertainty of model outcomes. Surprisingly, the bounded rationality of human agents, characterized by reactions to the strongest stimuli, often leads to quite contrary results, namely, robustness of emergent urban structures. To qualitatively modify the dynamics of infrastructure and/or population distributions, strong and spatially extended interventions at above-agent levels are shown to be necessary.

Modelling the Micro-dynamics of Urban Systems with Continuum Valued Cellular Automata
Alberto Vancheri, Paolo Giordano Accademia di architettura, Universit della svizzera italiana, Via Canave, CH-6850 Mendrisio [email protected] Abstract: We present a model of urban evolution based on a continuum valued stochastic cellular automaton. The configuration of the cells is given by a set of continuum real valued dynamical variables specifying built volume or occupied surfaces for different land uses. The evolution rules are specified in term of Poisson distributed elementary events corresponding to decision processes of agents, like for instance the building of new volumes for given land uses, the conversion from a given land use to another or the occupation and the abandoning of already built spaces. The intensity of each kind of elementary process is written using method of fuzzy decision theory in order to model the decision criteria followed by the agents.

The model possesses a natural continuum time limit enabling to describe the dynamics through a Kolmogorov forward equation with a related system of approximated differential equation for the time evolution of the dynamical variables. Furthermore the theoretical setting of the model enables to use the concept of forward mean derivative as a tool to describe the stochastic rate of variation of the dynamical variables. This enables in turn to construct a system of non approximated random differential equations (RDE) to explore the stochastic behaviour of the model. These RDE are suited to deal with models including non markovian memory effects.

Estimation of Megacity Growth: Simple Rules Versus Complex Phenomena

Frank Schweitzer Department MTEC, ETH Zentrum, Rmistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zrich [email protected] Abstract: The growth of large urban aggregates (megacities) is analogous to the development of self-organized structures known in physics. Using empirical data about changes in the built-up areas of different cities as input, the self-organizing model employed here suggests that megacities evolve towards a hierarchical form of spatial organization, and provides estimates of the size of subclusters that compose the urban aggregate. The rank-size cluster distribution that emerges can be described by a Pareto coefficient which has a similar value for different megacities. The coefficient may provide a useful complement to structural measures of urbanization such as the fractal dimension.

Self-organization of pedestrian and vehicle traffic in urban environments

Dirk Helbing Institute for Economics and Traffic, Faculty of Traffic Sciences "Friedrich List", Dresden University of Technology, Andreas-Schubert-Str. 23, D-01062 Dresden [email protected] Abstract: Pedestrian crowds show a number of self-organized spatio-temporal behaviors, e.g. lane formation in bidirectional streams or oscillations of the passing direction at bottlenecks. These discoveries have serious implications for the improvement of standard elements of pedestrian facilities. In many cases, more efficiency and pedestrian-friendly solutions can be reached with less space.

Another interesting subject is the self-organized formation of human trails. The underlying principle is a compromise between the temptation to use shortcuts and the tendency to use already existing ways. The resulting way systems have interesting features, in particular they tend to be fair to different user groups. The simulation model can be used to develop suitable way systems. Within existing street networks, the main adaptive variables are the individual route choice and potentially - the traffic lights. We will present a new approach for a self-organization of urban traffic systems which adjusts to the respective traffic situation. We will also discuss results of recent route choice experiments. These show under which conditions individuals will produce not only an approximate user equilibrium (the Wardrop equilibrium), but contribute to the establishment of a system optimum. The transition to the cooperative state has interesting features.

Multiplicative processes and city sizes

Damian H. Zanette Centro Atomico Bariloche and Instituto Balseiro 8400 Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina [email protected] Abstract: Zipf's law establishes that in a list of cities ranked according to their populations, the rank of a given city is -to a good approximation- inversely proportional to its population. This empirical observation, valid for the ensemble of cities in a country, in a continent, or in the whole world, holds independently of the historical, political, and socioeconomical background of the region in question. Such ubiquity calls for an explanation on the basis of the most elementary mechanisms that shape large-scale city formation. In this talk, I discuss two models based on multiplicative stochastic processes, and respectively inspired by Zeldovich's and Simon's models, that successfully predict Zipf's law in the distribution of city sizes. Multiplicative processes are present as well in other social phenomena, where Zipf's law is also observed.

Fractal Geometry for Measuring and Modelling Urban Patterns

Pierre Frankhauser THEMA, Universit de Franche-Comt 32, rue Mgevand, F-25030 Besanon CEDEX [email protected] Abstract: Urban growth generates nowadays patterns, which seem not to correspond to usual Euclidean geometric forms. Hence planners often speak of amorphous patterns, since usual measures, often based on density, dont suit for their description. Moreover planning policy regrets the lack of compactness and density of these agglomerations, but controlling urban sprawl turns out

to be difficult. Obviously a new type of spatial organisation emerges, which is rather the result of a self-organisation process to which a high number of social agents contribute. The contribution focuses on the use of fractal geometry for describing the morphology of these patterns. Indeed investigations realized by different research groups made evident that, despite of their irregular aspect, sprawling agglomerations show rather a well-defined spatial organisation, which may be described by fractal parameters. We recur mainly to results obtained in the frame of a recent research project, financed by the French Ministry of Planning. It allowed comparing the morphology of about twelve European Metropolitan areas, localised in different countries. It was possible to test different kinds of measuring procedures and to clarify methodological aspects by means of a specially developed computer program. An important issue was the comparative analysis of the surface distribution of build-up space and the morphology of urban boundaries. Moreover fractal reference models were developed for illustrating the main geometric features of the observed patterns. The obtained results allowed to establish links between the local or national planning policy and particular planning concepts (individual housing areas, weak controlled areas, strongly planned Corbusier cities, French new towns ) on the one hand, and the observed fractal parameter values, on the other hand. Moreover for some agglomerations the analysis of time series made evident that sprawl even generates a more and more precise order, which may be described by a fractal order parameter. The presentation of these quantitative results will be completed by some conceptual reflections by focussing on the question of the efficiency of urban planning concepts in view of managing urban sprawl.

The embryology of an urban growth mode

Claes Andersson Department of Physical Resource Theory, Fysikgnd 3, P.O. Box 463, S-41296 Gteborg [email protected] Abstract: Ontogeny is the process by which biological organsisms are formed from a simple and general stem cell to a full-grown and specialized organism. Although Haeckel's famous line "ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny" may be wanting in several aspects it is still true that the development of an embryo provides a log of sorts of the process by which nature has tackled complexity and increasing specialization. This analogy is used for discussing the process by which models can be elaborated and adapted from a general and simplistic core model towards more specialized and adapted versions for use e.g. for scenario prediction. A complex network model of geographic land value and population growth will be presented and its extension from predictions about land lots to predictions about clusters will be discussed. The fundamental model is a Barabasi-Albert scale-free network that is interpreted similarly to Simon's model but on the level of land lots rather than cities. In its simplest form the model predicts general statistical properties of the system, i.e a probability density function (pdf) of land value and population. These properties are retained when the model is then extended to a cellular space to also incorporate transportation. This extension enables it to also predict geographical statistical properties of the system such as pdf's for cluster value, population and area as well as geometric properties of the clusters. The model is designed with the intention that it should be open-ended -- any amount of

adaptation should be possible without necessarily compromizing its fundamental properties. The model output is compared with an extensive data set over land values in Sweden.

Knowledge, planning and modeling approaches

Silvana Lombardo Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Universit degli Studi di Pisa, via Diotisalvi 2, I-56126 Pisa [email protected] Abstrct: not received in time for printing

CityDev: an interactive multi-agents urban model

Ferdinando Semboloni Dipartimento Urbanistica e Pianificazione del Territorio, Universit di Firenze, via Micheli 2, I-50121 Firenze [email protected] Abstract: In this paper I present a multi-agents simulation model of the development of a city. The model, CityDev, is based on agents, goods and markets. Each agent (family, industrial firm, developer, etc.) produces goods by using other goods, and trades the goods on the markets. Each good has a price, and the monetary aspects are included in the simulation. When agents produce goods and interact in the markets, the urban fabric is built and transformed. The computer model (simulator) runs on a 3-D spatial pattern organized in cubic cells. In the present paper the model is described and results are shown.

Two complexities and six models

Ivan Blecic, Arnaldo Cecchini, Andrea Trunfio Dipartimento di Architettura e Pianificazione, Universit di Sassari, Piazza Duomo 6, I-7041 Alghero (Sassari) [email protected] http://lamp.sigis.net The difficulty in dealing with urban systems complexity and the related difficulty to analyse and forecast is twofold: one kind of difficulty lies in the complexity of the system itself, and the other is due to the actions of actors, which are acts of freedom. In our address, we would like to present a set of techniques and models, with respective software packages, that have proven to be of great potential for enactment and management of communication, participatory, consensus-building and simulation processes. As such, our approach tries to cope with both aspects of complexity mentioned above. Indeed, there are differences among the communication, the consensus-building and the public participation: sometimes, but not necessarily always interconnected, and each of critical importance for the planning practice, so as to induce many scholars and practitioners to argue them be the very essence of the planning process. The planning theory has extensively explored and has attempted to establish principles, rules and procedures for handling with such processes, asking questions about the treatment of legitimacy, rationality, knowledge and power. We are well aware of this debate, and our point of view can more or less be summarised as follows: we are firmly convinced that the planning in its strict sense (meaning by definition the production of plans) is absolutely necessary, today just as always, if not even more. And the production of plans, almost by definition implies substantially a set of rules, restrictions and incentives. That being said, it is evident that the adequate combination of these three elements has to be determined in every concrete situation, and that the mix can vary. Furthermore, the relationship among the technician, the client and the users always crucial in every territorial policy has changed, and the role of users (these can be taken as citizens lato sensu) is nowadays more relevant, as to impose us a radical revision of the concept of client (the governmental bodies on different levels). Our proposal of tools does not seek to be a negation of such a debate and its delicate complexity, if favour of a technocratic and technicistic option. Rather, it is an attempt to anchor some theoretical orientations to concrete and effective possibilities. In fact, if participation, consensus-building, and indeed the planning itself, are among other things also communicative processes, and made the assumption that assertions, opinions, interests and predictions are always grounded on representations and models, hence emerge the interest we can appoint to techniques that explore the possibility of collective building and elicitation of such models. The first tool (MaGIA) is based on the conceptual maps methodology. The founding working hypothesis is the idea that it is possible to represent a collective knowledge through a network of concepts. It is a web-based software designed for the construction of knowledge maps which allows users to collectively build maps by inserting new concepts and links among them, to participate to

discussions and to visualise and analyse maps. This tool is not too dissimilar from the philosophy of the ever-growing project of wiki, an environment and a system also serviceable in processes of collective knowledge building. We would like to suggest that an integrated use of MaGIA and a wiki technology, the former for the initial enactment phases and the latter in a more mature phase of conceptualisation, definition of problems and exploration of the fields of solutions, can prove to be very useful. The second tool (The Time Machine) is based on a re-elaboration of the cross-impact analysis, and serves as a tool for the construction of future scenarios. It is based on a simple and extremely communicable underlying model, but can however grow in complexity and richness depending on the use that is made of. The tool is particularly interesting due to the fact that the set of starting hypothesis, assessments, variable estimations, their interaction and results are transparent and easy to change. Such an approach permits a better comparison of results and alternatives, and to suggest the most adequate mix of decisions for a specific desired scenario. Probably the most relevant thing is that the two can be used jointly, or with other tools and techniques. For instance, with those we have developed for Delphi technique management for estimating events probabilities or intensities of relations; or jointly with various types of simulation for evaluation of spatial policies effects (made possible with the use of CAGE, a cellular automata management environment). Certain relevance has to be given also to gaming-simulations like GioCoMo which favours the analysis of relations among actors and supports collective debate and negotiation. There are furthermore other types of models or innovative representation, participatory and communication modalities (as for example the CITA system Interactive Telematic Communication for Environment, designed for the Province of Bologna or the simulation of local policies for a small town like SimPoGrad), or two urban games designed and developed for the exhibition on the compact city during the Barcelona Forum 2004. An articulated set of flexible and modular tools that permit the setting and management of personalised processes of participation and communication tailored to the need of specific projects and policies. A set of friendly tools that make the relationship among technicians, clients and users effective and efficacious, which as we have said before is crucial in the planning process.

Hybrid Geographical Models of Urban Spatial Structure and Behaviour

Mark Birkin School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT [email protected] Abstract : This paper will discuss two approaches to modelling the behaviour patterns of households within cities. The micro-simulation approach (and related agent-based methods) concentrate on representing the richness and diversity of individual behaviours. Spatial interaction models offer a more aggregated view in which the emphasis centres on higher level constraints and market clearing processes.

It will be argued that since the two approaches are so clearly complementary, that it makes sense to combine them into a hybrid micro-macro model framework. We will illustrate how this can be achieved using examples from urban retail and housing markets.

Optimal Transportation and the Structure of Cities

Guillaume Carlier CEREMADE, Universit Paris Dauphine, Pl. de Lattres de Tassigny, 75016 Paris [email protected] Abstract: Following the analysis of Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg, we study the equilibrium structure of cities. We extend the existence result obtained by Lucas and Rossi-Hansbergin the radial case to more general geometries. The main ingredient is the use of optimal transportation theory.

CogCity: A cognitive-structural approach to urban dynamics

Juval Portugali ESLab (Environmental Simulation Lab), and Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978 [email protected] Abstract: CogCity is a cognitive-structural agent base urban simulation model. It is cognitive in that it derives the behavior of its agents from the first principles of humans cognitive capabilities as revealed in cognitive science. It is structural in that it explicitly models the dynamics of the global structure of the city. The cognitive and structural aspects of the urban dynamics are linked through humans cognitive tendency to perceive the global structure of cities. Why do we need a cognitive-structural approach to urban modeling? First, because agents behavior as modeled by AB/CA models differ from their behavior as revealed by research in cognitive science. Second, because unlike the classical location models of the 1960s that focused on the global structure of cities, the medium AB/CA that currently dominates the domain of urban simulation is essentially bottom-up in its inner logic and as such tend to overlook the globalstructural dynamics of cities. As a consequence many of the models are not realistic in their behavioral assumptions and cannot continue, and largely detached from the insight about the global the structure of cities gained by location theory. CogCity, as noted at the outset, is a cognitivestructural agent base urban simulation model.

Cities as Evolutionary Systems in Random Environments

Leonid Bogachev Department of Statistics, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds LS2 9JT Bogachev@maths .leeds.ac.uk Abstract: A crucial feature of cities is the inherent uncertainty displayed on various structural levels. Modern theory of random processes in random environment provides an adequate framework for modelling of such systems. Relevant models include evolutionary processes in random media driven by the two competing mechanisms self-averaging and self-organisation. Of special interest in the urban context is the intermittency phenomenon characterised by the development of highly erratic spatial-temporal structures. In particular, a conventional averaged approach breaks down for intermittent random systems, which has important bearings on modelling and statistical analysis of real urban data.

Multidimensional Events: the Design of Urban Systems

Jeffrey Johnson Department of Design and Innovation, Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA [email protected] Abstract: Complex urban systems require lattice hierarchical representations for their dynamics. Order-I dynamics will be defined as those representable by numerical functions. These typically includes patterns of residence, located activity use, and trip making. Order II dynamics will be defined as those representable by changing relational structure. These typically include changes to located infrastructure such as building houses, opening shops, locating factories and warehouses, building roads and bridges, and so on. Order II dynamics involve n-ary relations, which can be represented by simplicial complexes. This gives a multidimensional generalisation of network flows constrained by network topology. We speak of a multidimensional backcloth that constrains the dynamic traffic of system activity represented by numbers. Thus Order II dynamics constrain Order I dynamics, since the system traffic dynamics are defined on the backcloth, and changes in the backcloth change the dynamics of the traffic. It will be explained that urban planning involves the design of the backcloth to carry the desired traffic of human activity, and it involves managing changes to the backcloth to realise the design in the context of ever changing requirements. This can be expressed as a coevolution between backcloth and traffic.

Complexity: The Integrating Framework for Integrated Models of Urban and Regional Systems
Peter M. Allen, M. Strathern Cranfield University, Wharley End, Bedford MK43 0AL [email protected] Abstract: Traditionally, science has attempted to understand urban systems using a reductionist approach in which the behaviour of a system (city or region) is represented as being an equilibrium, mechanical interaction of its components. These components are representative agents for the different categories of supply and demand that inhabit the system, and it is assumed that their spatial distribution reflects an optimised value of profit (supply) and utility (demand). Over recent decades many attempts have been made to introduce more dynamic approaches, in which equilibrium is not assumed, and there are many models and methods that attempt to do this. However, this still denies the essential complexity of the urban or regional system, in which activities, natural endowments, culture, skills, education, health, transport, house prices, the global economy, all combine to affect the evolution of the system. Just as in ecology, the key to the longterm structures that may emerge is the diversity, innovative and adaptive power of people and society to counter new difficulties and create new opportunities. This fluid, adaptive power is a product of the complex system, and can only be modelled and anticipated to a limited degree. However, cities and regions can limit the possibility of successful adaptation if they are too wellorganized or too unimaginative. New models of adaptive organisation allow us to understand better the need for integrated views linking land-use changes to environmental and socio-economic and cultural factors. These provide a new, more open way of considering the importance of adaptable, emergent networks, and the need for multiple and burgeoning accessibility to others.

A Model for aystematic mobility in urban spaces

Armando Bazzani Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Universit di Bologna, via Irnerio 46, I-40129 Bologna [email protected] Abstract: We present a agent-base model to simulate the citizens mobility in a urban space where different transportation systems are at disposal. The request of mobility is determined by the "chronotopic areas": i.e. urban areas where time-dependent activities are installed and attract the citizens accordino to their social categories. The core of the model is a decision mechanism for the agents based on a daily program, which chooses the transportation means and the roads to reach the scheduled chronotopic areas. The decision mechanism depends on the social categories of the agents, on the informations at disposal, on the attraction force towards a chronotopos and on some random choices. The daily program can also be upgraded according to the informations given to the agents.

The finite volume congestion effects are present in the private transportation and in the finite capacity of the public means whereas the crowding in the chronotopic areas causes the extension of the stay in the areas themselves. Some properties of the model are discussed in the framework of complex systems and the results of simulations on real situations are presented.

Validating Models of Land Use Change: Practical, Theoretical and Epistemological Issues
Roger White Deptartment of Geography, Memorial University St. Johns, NL, A1B 3X9, Canada [email protected] Abstract: The dynamics of land use change in urbanizing regions is modelled with increasing accuracy and detail using cellular automata and agent-based techniques. While the results are intuitively impressive, appropriate statistical tests of the quality of the output are largely lacking. And adhering to conventional ideas of testing in search of rigor results, in these systems, in rejecting valid models and accepting models that fundamentally misrepresent the nature of the geographical systems in question. Furthermore, there are deep questions concerning the nature of the modelling problem: to the extent that the model structure succeeds in capturing the open, creative, innovative nature of the real system, to what extent are quantitative tests possible, even in principle? The emerging theories of spatial structure that are represented in the models suggest broader but weaker notions of testing. They also align themselves with evolutionary epistemology.

Cellular Automata models in practice: how far have we evolved beyond the conceptual stage?
Guy Engelen Research Institute for Knowledge Systems bv, P.O. Box 463, 6200 AL Maastricht, The Netherlands [email protected] www.riks.nl Abstract: Cellular Automata models have received a lot of attention in the spatial sciences since the pioneering work of Couclelis and others in the mid eighties. A growing number of models are developed with a view to represent real urban and regional systems and their use for practical tasks. We will present an application of the latter kind. It concerns Environment Explorer, a system aimed at supporting spatial scientists, planners and decision makers at the local, regional and national levels in the Netherlands, to help them analyse a wide range of social, economic and environmental policies and their associated temporal and spatial dynamics. The core of this system consists of linked dynamic

spatial models operating at both the macro- and the micro-geographical scales. At the macro scale, the modelling framework integrates several component sub-models, representing the natural, social, and economic sub-systems. At the micro level, cellular automata based models determine the fate of individual parcels of land, based on institutional, physical and environmental factors as well as on the type of activities in their immediate neighbourhoods. The approach chosen enables the straightforward integration of detailed physical, environmental, and institutional characteristics as well as the particulars of the transportation infrastructure, and permits a very detailed representation of the evolving spatial system. Environment Explorer covers the entire territory of the Netherlands and represents processes at the national, the regional (40 regions centred on the main cities), and the cellular (25 ha cells) levels. It runs on top of detailed GIS information and generates future land use and land cover for the period 2000 till 2030 on a yearly basis. The quality of the policies tried out is expressed in some 40 economic, social and environmental indicators available in the model as dynamic maps. The application has been developed over the past 5 years. It has been used at the national and the provincial level for the preparation of spatial policy documents. Just recently it has been equipped with prototype versions of semi-automated calibration routines and has been extensively (re-)calibrated. In the presentation we will dwell on the specifics of the calibration tools as well as the quality of the calibrated model. Keywords: spatial modelling, policy support system, calibration, cellular automata

Grilling the Grid: A Non-Ultimate (nor Objective) Progress Report On the Configurational Approach to Urban Phenomena
Valerio Cutini Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Universit degli Studi di Pisa, via Diotisalvi 2, I-56126 Pisa [email protected] Abstract: not received in time for printing

Multi-agent simulations for transport and city planning: recent case study results
Kai Nagel Technische Universitt Berlin, Salzufer 17-19 Sek. SG 12, D-10584 Berlin [email protected] Abstract: Other talks of this workshop show how cell-based approaches are used to predict the growth dynamics of a city, or how multi-agent simulations can be used. Metropolitan regions can consist of several million inhabitants, implying the simulation of several million people, which represents a considerable computational challenge. We will report on results for Switzerland and, if

available, for a high resolution simulation (all streets that are available for traffic!) of the Zurich region. The computational techniques necessary (or not) to achieve these results will be explained.

The Dynamics of Complex Urban Systems: An interdisciplinary approach

Gnter Haag Steinbeis Transfer Centre Applied Systems Analysis (STASA) Schnbergstrae 15, D- 70599 Stuttgart [email protected] Abstract: In order to understand current settlement pattern and its future development the essential characteristics of the interrelated dynamics of the transport system, the urban/regional settlement pattern, demographic effects and the impacts of different policy measures and external effects have to be considered in an interdisciplinary approach. The modelling of the spatio-temporal patterns of a system consisting of different sub-models (population, transport, production, etc.) is used to demonstrate the necessity to link different theoretical frameworks. External shocks may sometimes require a modification of the system under consideration in the sense that new dynamic variables appear or previously useful variables disappear. Policy advises on the base of different scenarios are useful in a planning context in the attempt to shape the future taking into account different scenario results, instead of just adapting to what may emerge. This procedure is especially important when essential parts of the system cannot be controlled by policy measures and depend on exogenous factors. For the region of Stuttgart, the model framework was used within the SCATTER project (Sprawling Cities and Transport: from Evaluation to Recommendations). Four different policy scenarios reference scenario (no additional policy measure applied) fiscal measures regulatory measures applied to companies increase of car use costs

will be simulated in an recursive procedure. The results of the different policy measures will be discussed and critically evaluated with respect to urban sprawl and sustainable development aspects. The developed framework can also be used as simulation tool for the estimation of secondary induced traffic impacts.

The Socio-Spatial Dynamics of Systems of Cities and Innovation Processes: A Multi-Level Model
Denise Pumain University Paris 1, 13 rue du Four, F-75006 Paris [email protected] Abstract: SIMPOP2 is a generic model for simulating the evolutionary dynamics of a variety of settlement systems while they emulate and adopt innovations. The basic conception is that an hierarchic urban system (following a Zipfs distribution of city sizes and a more or less regular geographical pattern) emerges from the spatial interactions between rural and urban settlements over a long time period. Interactions are driven by competition for promoting and capturing the benefits of innovations (territories, market zones or networks according to the type of urban function). They are submitted to different social and political contexts or functional rules, that are evolving through time. Most of interactions are defined at the meso level of the urban agglomerations but some of them, as urban governance or innovation, may be acted by agents of a lower level. The models help identifying which key parameters (at micro, meso or macro level) can lead to the emergence of the three major types of observed settlement systems: regular and dense, but more or less concentrated (European or Asiatic countries) ; dual and macrocephalic (developing countries); strongly hierarchised and sparse (countries of the New world).

Poster Session
Rui Carvalho, Alan Penn, Scaling and universality in the micro-structure of urban space, University College London, United Kingdom, [email protected] Vladislav Harbach, OBEUS ultimate software for agent-based urban systems simulation, Tel Aviv University, Israel, [email protected] Erez Hatna, Testing the Markov Nature of City Developers' Behavior: 'In Vitro' Experiment and Simulation Model, Tel Aviv University, Israel, [email protected] Lu Ming, Tang Huiyi, Introduction to Simulating Methodology of Urban Systems, Harbin Institute of Technology, China, Lu Ming, Tang Huiyi, Main Features and Challanges of the Urbanisation Couse in China, Harbin Institute of Technology, China,