PAKISTAN ELECTRIC POWER CRISIS AND ITS POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................2 1.INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................2 2.INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS ...................................................3 3.FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE..............................4 4.EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS.............................................................................5 4.1.Effects on People .....................................................................................5 4.2.Effects on Economy..................................................................................6 5.SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE......................................................6 5.1.Energy Conservation Measures...................................................................6 5.2.Short Term Measures................................................................................8 5.3.Long Term Measures.................................................................................8 6.CONCLUSION.................................................................................................9 BIBLIOGRAPHY................................................................................................10 APPENDIX..11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The recent electric power shortage crisis in Pakistan is affecting economy and various people and the situation is getting worse day by day. Although only 46 percent of the population of the country has the facility of electricity but still the government is unable to manage a steady power to them. Poor planning, recent climatic changes, oil prices and politics are the primarily responsible for todays severe crisis. The economy and subsequently people are badly effected by this crisis with loss of huge capital and degrading health. The solution to the current crisis lies in energy conservation al all levels in the country. However the use of alternate energy such as wind turbine and solar power can be utilized to immediately reduce the shortage, while electricity generation projects from coal and large dams can provide a long term solution to electricity shortage. 1. INTRODUCTION 3. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions Pakistan is in the grip of a serious power shortage crisis that is affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. As we write this report, the country is plunging deeper and deeper into the crisis; the electricity shortfall has hit the record level. This situation has pushed the people of Pakistan to bear the burden of 8 to 16 hours load shedding, which might further increase in the future.

2. INTENSITY OF EXISTING POWER CRISIS Pakistan is experiencing these shortages despite its miserly electricity use with per capita consumption of 546-kilowatt hours per year, a fifth of the global average of 2,586-kilowatt hours, according to statistics from the South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation. Also the fact that electrical power shortages are so sever in Pakistan where only approximately forty-six percent of the population has access to it. Pakistan's electricity production was nearly 3,000 Mega Watts (MW) short of demand in March. The authorities (see Appendix A) tried to make up the difference by turning off lights, and everything else, for several hours a day. The electricity shortfall has hit the record level of 7,075 MW in July owing to the forced shutdown of many units of power generation plants following the severe fuel scarcity. This power shortage crisis is likely to continue for several years even if the steps are taken to reduce it on war-footing basis. Below mentioned data show that the gap between demand and supply of electrical power will increase in the future. ` Table 1 Power Generation Power Consumption Year Power Deficit (Projected) (Projected) 2009 15,032 MW 18,715 MW 3,683 MW 2010 17,378 MW 20,345 MW 2,977 MW 2011 18,831 MW 22,116 MW 3,285 MW 2012 22,898 MW 24,041 MW 1,143 MW 2013 23,311 MW 26,133 MW 2,822 MW 2014 24,022 MW 28,408 MW 4,386 MW 2015 25,433 MW 30,881 MW 5,448 MW Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2007 3. FACTORS WHICH LED TO EXISTING POWER SHORTAGE An important question in the midst of ongoing power shortage crisis, being raised is that why the energy crisis looms on our head despite the fact that statistics, demand and consumption are well articulated. According to the statistics published on Jul 2 2004 in Energy Bulletin the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this year(2004) and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the year 2007. All this data was readily available to all concerned government, so the answer to the above question is evident but there are some other factors which turned the existing power crisis into worse than expected. Some of these factors are discussed below: Pakistan's 19,500 megawatts of production capacity, more than 60 percent is from imported furnace oil and domestic natural gas power plants. Hydropower generated from the country's two major dams accounts for about 30 percent, and its one nuclear power plant produces less than five percent.

The primary trigger although not the long-term cause of the power cuts was a dry December. The low rainfall reduced the water in the dams, reducing the total power output from all major hydro electric dams. There are also restrictions on water release; because dams are also irrigation reservoir, there are restrictions on the amount of water it can release for electricity generation. Even when the rains came, and the electricity supply increased, that did not guarantee that the power would stay on. Another short term factor was that transmission towers and natural gas supply infrastructure have been blown up by the terrorists particularly in Baluchistan from where most of the gas is supplied to the power plants. The rising prices of oil products is also a major cause of power disruption in Pakistan where more than 60 percent of electricity is generated from furnace oil. WAPDA and other independent power producers were having problems because they were unable to pay for oil from oil marketing companies. Transmission losses (i.e. power theft) are thirty to thirty-eight percent, as opposed to the ten percent which might be expected through unavoidable line losses inherent in the distribution system. So, even if the power distribution companies are able to completely remove the theft during transmission (the popular KUNDA system), 25 percent electricity could be saved and the crisis will end. A long term cause of the existing power breakdown is that government regulated tariffs on retail electricity prices kept revenues too low to make it worthwhile for utilities to invest in their delivery or generation infrastructure, preventing the network from keeping up with rising demand and unable to catch up. 4. EFFECTS OF THIS CRISIS 4.1. Effects on People The household sector been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption this crisis has literally paralyzed the cities and villages and made life hell for the citizens. As a result, the house holds which are connected to the grid are going without electricity at average six hours of outages that are occurring per day this month. The daily load shedding was at first unscheduled, which increased the disruption and negative effects. Crowds protested in the streets of all major cities due to the discontent caused by the power cuts. Police have also reported increased crime during the blackouts in bigger cities. Power outages are one of the factors of wheat shortage in the country. Mills could not operate at capacity because of power cuts, which caused a rise in prices and long queues for purchasing the flour. Water supplies were also affected, as pumping and purification stations shut down. 4.2.Effects on Economy The economy of Pakistan is very badly effected by the crisis halting major trade and economic and agricultural activities. The industries consume 31.1 percent, agriculture 14.3 percent and commercial sector 5.5 percent of total consumption of the country. The factories having to shut down during the

outages, international and domestic orders cannot be fulfilled due to reduced production. Business activity is reduced due to communication and infrastructure shutout. The production and sale of electrical appliances has decreased as a result of the crisis. 5. SOLUTIONS TO END POWER SHORTAGE In view of existing ground realities and statistics mentioned in Table 1, it is impossible to overcome the crisis by short term measures. As we implement short term measures to reduce the crisis the energy would have increased more and the short term measures would look like nothing. In order to address this crisis a three dimension parallel implementation measures are required. These are: 1. Energy conservation measures 2. Short term measures 3. Long term measures 5.1. Energy Conservation Measures There are no immediate solutions to generating additional power through any source because a unit takes at least 2-3years to establish a thermal power plant and more than 5 years are required to construct a hydroelectric dam and the investment is enormous. So, energy conservation or efficient use of electricity is what is needed at this crucial time. We should make the best use of existing power generation by taking conservation measures at individual, community and national level. The major users of electricity need to be educated and motivated to play their role in energy conservation. They are: industrial sector and domestic/household sector. Each sector needs to be dealt separately to highlight the benefits of conserving energy. Domestic/household sector consumes around 21 per cent of electricity produced in the country. This sector could be efficient by 30 per cent by avoiding wasteful habits of consuming energy such as keeping markets fully lit etc. A positive development that has so far taken place in this sector is gradual shifting over to use of energy savers. Similarly energy could be saved by minimum use of air conditioners. The entire household should be well-aware of energy consumption. The Industrial sector is consuming the largest amount of energy in the country. It consumes around 45 per cent of the total commercial energy. Most of them are concentrated in a few industrial areas close to or within large cities such as Karachi, Lahore and other cities. Industrial units are not energy efficient and management practices need improvement to make efficient use of electricity. A study carried out by an agency ENERCON reveals that efficient use of electricity by the industrial sector could save up to 23 per cent of electricity. The focus on energy conservation is on the improvement of steam distribution systems, air conditioning, refrigeration and modernizing and revamping energy efficient

combustion processes and controls. A comprehensive plan should be developed to raise awareness in the masses through a campaign in print and electronic media. Some financial benefits to the consumers of power should also be given if they cut their power to a certain extent. Power crisis is not something new in the world. In 2000-01, US state of Page 7 of 11 8. Pakistan Electric Power Crisis and its Possible Solutions California introduced a plan to reduce the power crisis, further New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, Brazil and even Sri Lanka have done it successfully. 5.2. Short Term Measures The following short term measures can be taken immediately in order to reduce the intensity of existing power crisis: With power needed immediately, wind turbines look good because they are relatively fast to install whereas dams and nuclear power plants take five to six years to complete and thermal power plants need two years at least. Wind power can play a big part of solving Pakistan's energy shortages, and now that comprehensive wind maps have already been researched in the country. Immediate measure should be taken to install wind turbines especially in the already identified wind corridors of Karachi, Thatta, Gharo and Thar. The wind turbines are also a viable solution considering cost and environment. Government authorities should ensure overhauling all of the countries existing power plants to achieve maximum generation as well as prevent it from overloading which has been a source of power outages. This can be done by periodically shutting down one plant at a time for maintenance and overhauling in order to avoid overloading on other power plants. Relaxing duties and taxes on energy conserving electrical devices, such as energy saver lamps, LED lights, solar operated devices and wind turbines. 5.3. Long Term Measures The following long term measures should be taken keeping in view the projected increase in power consumption in the future: Pakistan has estimated as the world's third-largest known coal reserves of 33.0 trillion tons in the south-eastern part of the country i.e. Thar. The answer to long term solution of power crisis in Pakistan lies in using local coal for power generation. The electricity production from coal is also cheaper than thermal generation. In the long-term, Pakistan should also build more nuclear plants and dams. Rehabilitation and replacement of the outdated transmission and distribution systems is also a long term measure through which the country can overcome the perennial problem of line losses and thefts by unscrupulous consumers. All of the above mentioned measures if implemented with commitment and honesty of purpose can help our country and people to over come negative implications of power crisis. 6. CONCLUSION

It hardly needs to be emphasized that electricity is the lifeline of national economy and the people at large. The Economy and public life practically come to a halt because of the load shedding. The existing crisis can be addressed by the government by taking prompt measures and by public by taking energy conservation measures. There is hardly any room for neglect or delay now. BIBLIOGRAPHY EIA - Country Information on Pakistan CIA World Factbook Pakistan IEA Energy Statistics for Pakistan ADB Energy Sector Restructuring Program Documents Business Recorder Dawn (Newspaper) Pakistan Economist The Pakistan Daily Times The Pak Tribune Online Aaj TV Pakistan Jang News website IEEE History Official Pakistan Government site Privatization Commission of Pakistan The Pakistan Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (KESC) Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) National Electricity Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Pak-Arab Refinery, Ltd. The Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2005 The Pakistan Energy Yearbook, 2007