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Market Research Dec 02 - Dec 06

European markets fell significantly this week after weak economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales declined and producer prices eased more than expected. However, manufacturing activity accelerated faster than anticipated. In Asia, Japanese equities led losses as the central bank signaled further monetary easing. China removed restrictions on IPOs and allowed preferred share sales. US data topped forecasts, with GDP growth beating estimates and home sales rising sharply, pointing to continued economic expansion.

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87 views2 pages

Market Research Dec 02 - Dec 06

European markets fell significantly this week after weak economic data from the Eurozone. Retail sales declined and producer prices eased more than expected. However, manufacturing activity accelerated faster than anticipated. In Asia, Japanese equities led losses as the central bank signaled further monetary easing. China removed restrictions on IPOs and allowed preferred share sales. US data topped forecasts, with GDP growth beating estimates and home sales rising sharply, pointing to continued economic expansion.

Uploaded by

FEPFinanceClub
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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MARKET RESEARCH

Dec 02nd Dec 06th


SPOTLIGHT
Euro Area Retail Sales Growth Rate (MoM)

Part of the Portuguese debt is rolled over


After last weeks good performance, PSI-20 disappointed, falling 2.81. The week was marked by last Wednesdaysroll overof 6,6 billion out of a total of around 27 billion in government bonds,maturing in 2014 and 2015,withdebt maturing in 2017 and 2018. Nevertheless, Portuguese retail sales dropped 1.1% in October (MoM). Moreover, the countrys industrial production pricesfell 1.7% in October (YoY), above the Euro Zone average.Lastly, according to Eurostat, 25.3% of the Portuguese people were at risk of poverty in in 2012, an increase of 0.9pp when compared with the 2011 proportion.
Wkly Chg
-2.81% -3.46% -1.48% -2.48% -3.86% -2.31% -0.58%

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Dec 2
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
6,539.31 3,077.23 6,595.33 9,401.96 4,285.81 15,655.07 24,038.55

Dec 3
6,498.16 3,013.88 6,532.43 9,223.40 4,172.44 15,749.66 23,910.47

Dec 4
6,418.21 2,991.76 6,509.97 9,140.63 4,148.52 15,407.94 23,728.70

Dec 5
6,364.40 2,953.17 6,498.33 9,084.95 4,099.91 15,177.49 23,712.57

Dec 6
6,353.83 2,979.94 6,551.99 9,172.41 4,129.37 15,299.86 23,743.10

Markets dive after economic news releases


European markets fell significantly this week, afterbearish economic news were released. Euro Zones PPI eased down 0.5% (MoM) in October, falling short of expectations of a 0.2% decline, with the index decreasing declined 1.4% on a yearly basis. Retail sales declined 0.2% in October (MoM), whilea 0.3% gain was expected. On the other hand, the manufacturing PMI accelerated at its fastest pace in two and a half years in November, helped by a ramp-up in production, reaching 51.6, above market expectations of a 51.5 level.In the U.K, services sector activity expanded at a slower rate than expected. However, the activity of the construction and manufacturing sectors activity rose at the fastest rate since August 2007 and February 2011, respectively.

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CURRENCIES
Dec 2
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1.354 1.231 0.828 139.410 8.251 93.830

Dec 3
1.359 1.229 0.829 139.070 8.280 93.440

Dec 4
1.359 1.226 0.830 139.100 8.275 92.470

Dec 5
1.367 1.226 0.837 139.060 8.328 92.220

Dec 6
1.371 1.223 0.838 140.940 8.332 93.640

Wkly Chg
0.84% -0.75% 1.01% 1.24% 0.63% 0.34%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

REFERENCE RATES
Dec 2 Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia
0.170% 0.236% 0.331% 0.502% 0.112%

China removes the ban on IPOs


Dec 5
0.183% 0.240% 0.334% 0.507% 0.127%

Dec 3
0.175% 0.239% 0.332% 0.503% 0.117%

Dec 4
0.180% 0.239% 0.334% 0.504% 0.126%

Dec 6
0.191% 0.248% 0.345% 0.519% 0.232%

FEP Finance Club; Banco de Portugal; BPI

BOND YIELDS
Dec 2 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y
1.457% 5.062% 5.968% 4.160% 2.247% 4.080% 1.739% 2.843%

Dec 3
1.735% 4.891% 5.885% 4.133% 2.221% 4.079% 1.725% 2.818%

Dec 4
1.744% 4.980% 5.964% 4.191% 2.270% 4.146% 1.819% 2.906%

Dec 5
1.783% 5.003% 6.014% 4.260% 2.323% 4.245% 1.861% 2.917%

Dec 6
1.620% 5.038% 6.050% 4.185% 2.323% 4.197% 1.837% 2.892%

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Asian equities were low this week, with the Nikkei leading the losses. The Bank of Japan governor fueled speculation of further monetary easing, after he said "we are ready to adjust monetary policy without hesitation if risks materialize". Meanwhile, the Japanese government approved an 18.6 trillion yen ($182 billion) stimulus package aimed at dulling the impact of an upcoming tax hike on the economy.China removed this week the restrictions on IPOs and allowed the sale of preferred shares.Its manufacturing activity maintained its steady growth, with the HSBC November PMI slightly fallingto 50.8, above market expectations. Across the sea the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate steady at a record low 2.5%, adding that the Australian dollar remains uncomfortably high and as a resultthe countrys monetary policy would be adjusted as needed.

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SPOTLIGHT
US GDP Growth Rate

S&P 500 recovers from a 5-session drop


Although S&P 500 registered mostly losses during the week, it recovered on Friday, after it was revealed that theU.S. jobless rate had fallen to a five-year low and that consumer spendinghad hit a four-month high. The initial performance of the index was underlay by the other released data, which showed that the economy has been growing more rapidly than expected. This added to thoughts that the Federal Reserve would begin to reduce stimulus sooner than speculated. The better-than-expected manufacturing PMI reading, released on Monday, is one example. The countrys GDP rose 3.6%, beating market expectations of a 3% increase. Moreover, Sales of new U.S. single-family homes recorded their biggest increase in nearly 33.5 years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery remains intact, despite higher mortgage rates. Lastly, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed as exports hit a record high, pointing to a pick-up in global demand that should help to support domestic growth in Q4.

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Dec 2
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1.800,90 16.008,77 3.481,15 3.647,30

Dec 3
1.795,15 15.914,62 3.479,34 3.613,30

Dec 4
1.792,81 15.889,77 3.483,01 3.592,23

Dec 5
1.785,03 15.821,51 3.477,73 3.598,86

Dec 6
1.805,09 16.020,20 3.504,26 3.640,06

Wkly Chg
-0,04% -0,41% 0,47% -3,03%

CURRENCIES
Dec 2
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
102.940 6.093 0.912 1.636 0.909 1.064

Dec 3
102.320 6.092 0.913 1.639 0.904 1.064

Dec 4
102.390 6.092 0.903 1.638 0.902 1.068

Dec 5
101.730 6.091 0.907 1.633 0.897 1.065

Dec 6
102.840 6.083 0.910 1.635 0.892 1.063

Wkly Chg
0.38% -0.16% -0.07% -0.15% -1.57% 0.19%

Brazil exportsagain goods to Argentina


Brazils trade balance rose more-than-expected last week, from -0.22B to 1.74B. The origin of this increase can be related to the agreement between the country and Argentina, to allow the importation of Brazilian goods mostly cars and shoes that had been stopped at the border. Moreover, Argentina also made an offer to the Mercosur trade bloc in order to achieve a free-trade agreement with the European Union.On the Mexican front, consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in Novemberfor the fourth consecutive month, defying economists' expectations of an improvement.

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

COMMODITIES
5.38% 4.25% 1.44% 2.27%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

-1.79% -2.54% 1.19% -3.55%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

Energy prices shoot up


Oil prices rose after data revealed that U.S. stockpiles made an unexpected drop last week, while industrial activity in the world's largest consumers beat expectations. Natural gas prices shot up after official data revealed that U.S. inventories took a surprising drop last week and as colder than average temperatures were forecasted. Sugar extended the longest slump in more than 15 months as processors are turning cane into sweetener in India, at a time when inventories are swelling to a record.

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

US TREASURY YIELDS
Dec 2 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0,058% 0,122% 2,797% 3,858%

Dec 3
0,043% 0,122% 2,784% 3,846%

Dec 4
0,056% 0,124% 2,837% 3,903%

Dec 5
0,056% 0,124% 2,873% 3,916%

Dec 6
0,061% 0,124% 2,857% 3,890%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

Carlos Pereira

Catarina Borges

David Novo

JorgeRodrigues

Pratik Kumar

Financial Markets | [email protected]|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

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