S E P T E M B E R

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B A S E
C O N F I DEN T I AL

M E T A L S

M A R K E T S

A N D

T R A D I N G

Martin Squires, JPMorgan Global Commodities, London [email protected]

ST R I C T L Y

P R I VAT E

AN D

This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of CLIENT in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure to any other party. This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan. The information in this presentation is based upon management forecasts and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of CLIENT or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of CLIENT. JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. and its securities affiliates, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank and its banking affiliates. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities.

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Introduction to Base Metals and the London Metal Exchange

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Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Tin

Aluminium Alloy North American Special Aluminium Alloy

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Introduction to Base Metals and the London Metal Exchange

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Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Tin Markets Markets

Aluminium Alloy North American Special Aluminium Alloy

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the global center for the trading of base metals The LME trades for each business day out to 3m, then every Wednesday out to 6m and then for the third Wednesday of each month thereafter out to a maximum of 63 months for Copper and Aluminium. The OTC market trades with reasonable liquidity out to five years. The market trades 24 hours/day with maximum liquidity during London business hours when the LME is open Commercial players (mining companies, industrial users, physical merchants, end consumers), banks, brokers and investors are all active participants

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Introduction to Base Metals and the London Metal Exchange

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Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Tin Markets Markets

Aluminium Alloy North American Special Aluminium Alloy

The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the global center for the trading of base metals The LME trades for each business day out to 3m, then every Wednesday out to 6m and then for the third Wednesday of each month thereafter out to a maximum of 63 months for Copper and Aluminium. The OTC market trades with reasonable liquidity out to five years. The market trades 24 hours/day with maximum liquidity during London business hours when the LME is open Commercial players (mining companies, industrial users, physical merchants, end consumers), banks, brokers and investors are all active participants Benchmark and settlement convention Benchmark and settlement convention The 3-month price is the global benchmark. It is similar to spot prices for FX and precious metals, or front month futures in other commodities. Three months was historically (back in the mid 1800s) the amount of time for shipment from Americas and Asia to London Prices are quoted in USD/metric tonne. Some US users prefer cents/lb, which convert at 1 tonne = 2,204.623 lbs Most forward prices are quoted as a spread to the 3-month price (i.e. if the 3-month copper price is $3,564/tonne, the average price for Calendar 2006 might be shown as 386 (Cal06 over 3s) meaning the all-in price is $3,178/tonne) Financially settled swaps typically settle against the average official cash settlement price for a specified monthly/quarterly period (also known as Asian settlement). European options expire on the first Wednesday of every month and settle against the third Wednesday
EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Trading base metals: The London Metal Exchange

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How the metals are traded How the metals are traded The LME is a 24-hour market which operates by inter-office trading between members and customers and via an open-outcry trading floor between ring dealing members The LME trading floor is known as The Ring. The LME official settlement prices for each metal are established during open-outcry trading at the close of the second morning ring Additionally LME member firms are also able to transact trades between each other through online trading platforms

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Trading base metals: The London Metal Exchange

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How the metals are traded How the metals are traded The LME is a 24-hour market which operates by inter-office trading between members and customers and via an open-outcry trading floor between ring dealing members The LME trading floor is known as The Ring. The LME official settlement prices for each metal are established during open-outcry trading at the close of the second morning ring Additionally LME member firms are also able to transact trades between each other through online trading platforms

The ring The ring The first open-outcry trading session (Ring) begins at 11:45 a.m. local London time. Each metal has a dedicated five minute trading period. At 12:20 p.m., all metals have traded once and there is a 10 minute break. Starting at 12:30, each metal contract trades again for five minutes The days official prices are published after the end of each metals second ring trading and confirmed ahead of the kerb At 1:15 p.m., the kerb begins and all 8 metal contracts trade at once until 3:10 p.m The second open-outcry trading session begins at 3:10 p.m. and follows the same schedule as the first, including a kerb session from 4:35 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

Trading base metals: The London Metal Exchange

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How the metals are traded How the metals are traded The LME is a 24-hour market which operates by inter-office trading between members and customers and via an open-outcry trading floor between ring dealing members The LME trading floor is known as The Ring. The LME official settlement prices for each metal are established during open-outcry trading at the close of the second morning ring Additionally LME member firms are also able to transact trades between each other through online trading platforms

The ring The ring The first open-outcry trading session (Ring) begins at 11:45 a.m. local London time. Each metal has a dedicated five minute trading period. At 12:20 p.m., all metals have traded once and there is a 10 minute break. Starting at 12:30, each metal contract trades again for five minutes The days official prices are published after the end of each metals second ring trading and confirmed ahead of the kerb At 1:15 p.m., the kerb begins and all 8 metal contracts trade at once until 3:10 p.m The second open-outcry trading session begins at 3:10 p.m. and follows the same schedule as the first, including a kerb session from 4:35 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. The other facts to note The other facts to note The base metals markets are forward markets. The 3-month price is the benchmark and forward prices are quoted as a spread based on a combination of factors (USD interest rates, storage costs, and metal borrowing costs) All LME contracts are priced assuming physical delivery, although only a small amount of metal is actually delivered. Most contracts are unwound before settlement. The deliveries that do occur are placed into approved LME warehouses globally. These partly reflect the actual physical markets demand/supply balance. LME warehouse stock movements are published daily
EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

What are you actually trading in base metals

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The LME (futures) contract The LME (futures) contract

The London Metal Exchange contracts assume that on falling due they will result in metal either being delivered or received. Brands of metal that meet the required specification are stored in LME approved warehouses around the world Traditionally placed close to consuming regions In reality most contracts are settled out without that taking place

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

What are you actually trading in base metals

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The LME (futures) contract The LME (futures) contract

The London Metal Exchange contracts assume that on falling due they will result in metal either being delivered or received. Brands of metal that meet the required specification are stored in LME approved warehouses

around the world Traditionally placed close to consuming regions In reality most contracts are settled out without that taking place

There is a secondary warrant trading market, in which premium for particular brands and location are traded Thereby, if available, you can purchase (swap for) your desired brand and location

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

What are you actually trading in base metals, contd

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Supply of metals Supply of metals

If you are due to supply metal then you would need to have warrants in your possession to be given to the LME (who would then issue them to a counterpart due to receive metal). The supplier of metal can choose which warrants they give to the LME (i.e. which global

location, brand and form, as long as an LME registered brand). You can either place metal on deposit in an approved warehouse and issue warrants for it,

use warrants which have been issued to you from an earlier maturity, or try to borrow warrants from another market participant

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What Drives Metals prices (what do we watch)

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Supply Supply

The physical supply of metals and expectations Potential disruptions; Strikes, accidents, economic closures (cost v price) Expenditure on exploration (costs of new operations) Inventory levels

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What Drives Metals prices (what do we watch)

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Demand Demand

The physical supply of metals and expectations Potential disruptions; Strikes, accidents, economic closures (cost v price) Expenditure on exploration (costs of new operations) Inventory levels

Demand (growth)
S T

Economics, substitution Emerging world / developing world growth rates Currency changes, interest rates

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31/05/2006 30/12/2005

28/02/2005 MG Metal Index - % change rolling 3mths 30/09/2004 30/04/2004 28/11/2003 30/06/2003 31/01/2003 30/08/2002 29/03/2002 31/10/2001 31/05/2001 29/12/2000 31/07/2000 29/02/2000 30/09/1999 ISM New Order - LHS 30/04/1999 30/11/1998 30/06/1998 30/01/1998 29/08/1997 31/03/1997 31/10/1996 31/05/1996 29/12/1995 31/07/1995 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30

US Manufacturing PMI Data Shows expansion

31 /0 7/2 00 6 31 /0 3/2 00 6 30 /1 1/2 00 5 29 /0 7/2 00 5 31 /0 3/2 00 5 30 /1 1/2 00 4 30 /0 7/2 00 4 31 /0 3/2 00 4 28 /1 1/2 00 3 31 /0 7/2 00 3 31 /0 3/2 00 3 29 /1 1/2 00 2 31 /0 7/2 00 2 29 /0 3/2 00 2 30 /1 1/2 00 1 31 /0 7/2 00 1

US PMI v MG Metal Price Index US PMI v MG Metal Price Index

MG Metal Index - % change rolling 3mths

30 /0 3/2 00 1 30 /1 1/2 00 0 31 /0 7/2 00 0 31 /0 3/2 00 0 30 /1 1/1 99 9 30 /0 7/1 99 9 31 /0 3/1 99 9 30 /1 1/1 99 8 31 /0 7/1 99 8 31 /0 3/1 99 8 28 /1 1/1 99 7 31 /0 7/1 99 7 31 /0 3/1 99 7 29 /1 1/1 99 6 31 /0 7/1 99 6 29 /0 3/1 99 6 30 /1 1/1 99 5 31 /0 7/1 99 5

65

PMI Index - LHS

60

55

50

45

40

35

Though as the ISM trends towards 50 metal prices rate of acceleration decreases

29/07/2005

Over the past 15 years, if the US PMI is above 50 then metal prices are rising and below 50 metal prices are falling

-0.04

-0.08

-0.12

0.12

0.08

0.04

EU COMMODITY MARKETS AND TRADING

-0.04

-0.08

-0.12

0.12

0.08

0.04

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T A L S M A R K E T S A N D T R A D I N G

What Drives Metals prices (what do we watch)

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Investor Investor

The physical supply of metals and expectations Potential disruptions; Strikes, accidents, economic closures (cost v price) Expenditure on exploration (costs of new operations) Inventory levels

Demand (growth)
S T

Economics, substitution Emerging world / developing world growth rates Currency changes, interest rates

Investor (Pension) sentiment towards commodities as an asset class

S L

GSCI, DJ-AIG.. Watch flows in / out of commodity classes

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Retail Investment in Commodities

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Cumulative annual flows into retail commodity mutual funds Cumulative annual flows into retail commodity mutual funds

Retail investment continues to be important driver for metal prices, while investment was high in first 6 months of 2006 demand has moderated more recently Investment is typically in the form of baskets or into funds such as GSCI. JPMorgan predict metals have benefited disproportionately in 2006 being only sector offering positive roll yield (base) or only slightly negative (precious)
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What Drives Metals prices (what do we watch)

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Equities Equities

The physical supply of metals and expectations Potential disruptions; Strikes, accidents, economic closures (cost v price) Expenditure on exploration (costs of new operations) Inventory levels

Demand (growth)
S T

Economics, substitution Emerging world / developing world growth rates Currency changes, interest rates

Investor (Pension) sentiment towards commodities as an asset class GSCI, DJ-AIG.. Watch flows in / out of commodity classes
L M E T A S

Mining/resource equity price movements / announcements Mergers and acquisitions, outlook statements

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Implication of the price curve: backwardations / contangos

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Copper and forward curve: Does the shape of forward curve provide us with future price direction Copper and forward curve: Does the shape of forward curve provide us with future price direction
4000 Copper 3 months up and until 19th Sep 2005

4000 3800

Copper Future 19th Sep 2005

3500

3600 3400

3000

3200 3000

2500

2800 2600

2000

2400 2200 2000

1500 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05

Oct-05

Feb-06

Jun-06

Oct-06

Feb-07

Jun-07

Oct-07

Feb-08

Jun-08

Oct-08

Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

Source: Bloomberg

Copper prices in September 2005 hit a record high, and the forward curve was in a heavy discount Forward selling dominated the forwards, as producers looked to lock in price Hedge 63 months out the copper price settled at 2200, significantly above the industries average cost of production Consequently, with the sharply discounted forward curve, is this an indication of a impending price decline on the front of the curve?
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Implication of the price curve: backwardations / contangos, contd

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Answer: No, Copper prices continued to strengthen Answer: No, Copper prices continued to strengthen
9500 Copper 3 months up and until 19th Sep 2005

100% 95% 90%

100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65%

8500

7500

85%
6500

80%
5500

75% 70% 65%

4500

3500

Copper Future 19th Sep 2005

60%
2500

60%

Copper Future 19th Sep 2006

55% 55% 50% 2M 5M 8M 11M 14M 17M 20M 23M 26M 29M 32M 35M 38M 41M 44M 47M 50M 53M 56M 59M 62M

1500

50%

Sep-03

Nov-03

Jan-04

Mar-04

May-04

Jul-04

Sep-04

Nov-04

Jan-05

Mar-05

May-05

Jul-05

Sep-05

Nov-05

Jan-06

Mar-06

May-06

Jul-06

Source: Bloomberg

The backwardated forward curve rather than becoming steeper, actually leveled out, Why?
S

Reduced forward selling appetite, investor and consumer buying Investor to take advantage of potential positive carry Consumer to hedge future exposure Forward curve tend to be backwardated in upwardly trending prices, once they have moved above the industries average cost of production Producers are natural longs and have a greater desire to hedge and are less fragmented compared with the manufacturing sector
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Market Participants in the World of Commodities

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Intermediary Banks

Passive investors Pension Funds and Asset Managers Private Banks

Intermediary Banks Hedge Funds & CTAs Macro Commodity Funds CTA

Passive Investors

Hedge Funds & CTAs

Producers

Producers Mining Companies Smelters Power suppliers

Sovereigns Central Banks and governments Supranationals

Sovereigns

Physical Traders

Consumers

Brokers and Banks

Physical Traders Physical trade houses Physical Merchants

Consumers Manufacturing Utilities Jewellers

Brokers and Banks Investment banks trading desks LME floor brokers

JPMorgan act as a market maker in three different time zones, located in London, New York and Singapore. Working together with all the different participants in the business allows us to have a unique insight into the market.

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Characteristics of commodity price cycles

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Average duration and amplitude of commodity price cycles, 1970 - 2005

# of completed cycles Commodity price booms Avg duration, months Avg amplitude, % Commodity price slumps Avg duration, months Current phase Avg amplitude, % Duration, months

Amplitude, %

All commodities D Energy Base metals Precious metals Agriculture Livestock S N

5 3 4 5 6 5

37 36 28 30 35 41

45 58 48 47 48 35

36 27 47 43 34 34

-42 -54 -43 -42 -45 -30

boom (since Feb 02) boom (since Feb 02) boom (since Nov 01) boom (since Sep 99) boom (since Nov 04) boom (since Sep 02)

51 51 54 80 18 44

171 244 196 142 32 35

Source: JPMorgan

Cycles surprisingly uniform at aggregate level Average duration of 37 months, movements of 40% Sub-sector cycles less symmetric

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APPENDIX
S B A S E M E T A L S M A R K E T

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Summary of everyday uses of base metals

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Aluminium Aluminium
Aluminium comes from the mining of bauxite, which is refined to alumina and then converted to aluminium metal through electrolysis. Refined metal, in turn, is used primarily in areas such as beverage cans, foil (and other packaging), automobiles, aircraft and other transport, building and construction, and electrical applications such as cables

Copper Copper
Copper is used in the electrical industry both as a conductor (wiring) and for electrical equipment and in the construction industry primarily as copper pipe. It is used in the engineering sector, often in the form of an alloy material such as brass and bronze, and in the chemicals industry

Lead Lead
A large proportion of the lead produced is used in the production of automobile and commercial vehicle batteries and industrial load-levelling uses. Over two-thirds of all lead consumed is by lead-acid batteries of one kind or another in Starter, Lighter and Ignition (SLI) applications, principally supplying the worlds automobile and truck industry. Other uses include cable sheathing, pipe and sheet, chemicals (such as PVC and in glass for lighting and TV tubes) and alloys

Nickel Nickel
Nickel-containing alloys and steels are highly resistant to corrosion and oxidation and provide both strength and toughness at high temperatures. The major use for nickel is in the production of stainless steels, which account for 65% of total world nickel consumption. Other uses for nickel include alloy steels, nickel alloys, copper alloys, castings, plating and chemicals. Pure nickel metal or nickel alloyed with other metals (normally copper) is also used in coinage

Zinc Zinc
There are a number of major markets for zinc consumption. Zinc is used in the coating (galvanising) for protection of iron and steel corrosion, zinc alloys for casting and as an element of alloys such as brass. It is also required in sheet form for roofing and the cladding of buildings and in tyres in the form of zinc oxide. Zinc also has smaller uses in pharmaceuticals and products like sun-tan lotion

Aluminium alloys Aluminium alloys

The use of aluminium alloy, particularly for the production of automotive components including lightweight engine parts, has been steadily growing internationally over recent years

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LME Ring trading times

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First session First session First rings Aluminium Alloy & NASAAC Tin Primary Aluminium Copper Lead Zinc Nickel Interval 11.45 to 11.50 11.50 to 11.55 11.55 to 12.00 12.00 to 12.05 12.05 to 12.10 12.10 to 12.15 12.15 to 12.20 12.20 to 12.30

Second session Second session Third rings Aluminium Alloy & NASAAC Interval Lead Zinc Copper Primary Aluminium Tin Nickel Interval 15.10 to 15.15 15.15 to 15.20 15.20 to 15.25 15.25 to 15.30 15.30 to 15.35 15.35 to 15.40 15.40 to 15.45 15.45 to 15.50 15.50 to 16.00

Second rings Copper Aluminium Alloy & NASAAC Tin Lead Zinc Primary Aluminium Nickel Interval Kerb Trading 12.30 to 12.35 12.35 to 12.40 12.40 to 12.45 12.45 to 12.50 12.50 to 12.55 12.55 to 13.00 13.00 to 13.05 13.05 to 13.15 13.15 to 15.10

Fourth rings Lead Zinc Copper Primary Aluminium Tin Nickel Aluminium Alloy & NASAAC Kerb Trading 16.00 to 16.05 16.05 to 16.10 16.10 to 16.15 16.15 to 16.20 16.20 to 16.25 16.25 to 16.30 16.30 to 16.30 16.35 to 17.00

Note: at 16.45 Aluminium Alloy and NASAAC cease trading; at 16.50 Lead and Tin cease trading; at 16.55 Nickel and Zinc cease trading

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Metals Traded Globally on Other Exchanges

N G I

World Metal Futures Exchanges MAJOR METALS TRADED Al, Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, Sn

EXCHANGE NAME LME (London Metal Exchange)

LOCATION London, UK

HOURS (All times are London time) 0100-1900 Select (Electronic Platform) 11.45 17.00 Ring (Floor) 08.00 17.35 Major Liquidity

COMEX (part of NYMEX) Shanghai Futures Exchange TOCOM (Tokyo Exchange) Spot Gold, Silver and PGMs An OTC market

New York, USA Shanghai, China Tokyo, Japan Worldwide

Au, Ag, Al, Cu, Pd, Pt Al, Cu Au, Ag, Pt, Pd Au, Ag, Pt, Pd

13.30-18.30 (Floor) 02.00 04.30 06.00 08.00

Non-Stop bar major holidays.

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What Grades are Acceptable for good Delivery

G I N

Metal Grade and specifications Metal Aluminium Other Information 99.7% purity Form Ingots (up to 26 kgs) T-bars (not more than 750 kgs) Sows (not more than 750 kgs) Copper Nickel conform to BSEN 1978:1998 99.8% purity Packed in steel drums not more than 500 kgs Zinc Lead Tin 99.995% purity 99.970% purity Grade A Cathode Full Plate Cut Cathodes Pellets Briquettes Ingots (up to 55 kgs each) Ingots (up to 55 kgs each) Ingots (up to 30 kgs each)

Base metals can be delivered to any exchange registered warehouse by agreement with relevant exchange and warehouse Gold 995 (99.50% purity) 999 (99.90% purity) 99.95% Plate or Ingot from London/Zurich Good delivery list 1kg<Weight<6kg Plate or Ingot 1kg<Weight<6kg Good delivery list at www.lppm.org.uk LOCO LONDON, GERMISTON (SA), ZURICH,

Silver Platinum

Palladium

99.95%

Must meet Good Delivery Criteria. Good Delivery criteria set out on www.lbma.org.uk for London
Source: LME and LBMA
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LME Trade Dates

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LME, tradeable prompt (value) days Daily from Spot date to rolling 3 month date Every Wednesday of the month from rolling 3 month date to rolling 6 month date Every 3rd Wednesday of the month is the standard prompt date. Can trade every 3rd Wednesday of month out 63 months in Cu and Al, 27 months in Ni and Zn and out 15 months in Pb and Sn All dates trade as a spread to the rolling 3 month contract. Trading as spread to cash also an option LME options expire 1st Wednesday of every month. Upon expiry enter into Futures position prompt 3rd Wednesday of the same month.

Comex Futures Dates Au, first 3 months trade. Any February, April, August, October within 23 month period. Any June and December falling within a 60-month period of current month. Ag, first 3 months. Any Jan, March, May and September falling within a 23 month period. Any July and December within a 60 month period of current month. Pt, first 3 months, then quarterly Jan, April, July and October, out max of 15 months total. Pd, first 3 months, then quarterly March, June, September and December, out max 15 months total. Al 25 consecutive monthly contracts, Cu 23 consecutive monthly contracts

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Metal Exchange Contract Specifications

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LME contracts and sizes (prices quoted are $/metric tonne ) Contracts (in order of decreasing liquidity) Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Tin Market Convention 1 lot = 25 metric tonnes 1 lot = 25 metric tonnes 1 l ot = 6 metric tonnes 1 lot = 25 metric tonnes 1 lot = 25 metric tonnes 1 lot = 5 metric tonnes

COMEX Contracts and sizes . Base prices in $/lb, Precious in $/ troy oz Contracts Copper Aluminium Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
*Correct as of 24th May 2006

Market Convention 1 Future = 25,000 lbs 1 Future = 25,000 lbs 1 Future = 100 troy ozs 1 Future = 5,000 troy ozs 1 Future = 50 troy ozs 1 Future = 100 troy ozs

Limit* $0.20/lb from previous day settlement $0.20/lb from previous day settlement $75.00/oz from previous day settlement $1.50/oz from previous day settlement $50.00/oz from previous settlement No limits

1 metric tonne = 32,150.747 troy ozs (3.d.p) 1 metric tonne = 2204.622 lbs (3.d.p) 1 lbs = 14.583 troy ozs (3.d.p) 1 troy ozs = 1.097 ozs (3.d.p)
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